How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Yikes:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/woman-arrested-plot-kill-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine/story?id=102065597

As investigators gathered additional info, they found that the woman had been locating Ukraine’s defense systems and ammunition warehouses throughout the Ochakov region, they said. She traveled to the region and photographed sites, officials said.

The woman had allegedly been planning to share that info with Russia for “a new massive air strike” in the region.

Zelenksyy said he was briefed on "the struggle against traitors in Ukraine" during his daily conference call with Ukrainian leaders on Monday.

[sburke]

Aide to German MP worked with Russia to delay tanks for Ukraine, report claims (yahoo.com)

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

Not quite breaking of course but the note of an intended air strike is interesting. 

@Haiduk et al,  if Zelensky was actually killed or incapacitated, who would step in? Would the party hold together? 

 

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Aide to German MP worked with Russia to delay tanks for Ukraine, report claims (yahoo.com)

Allegiately an aide to an AfD MP. Not really surprising as AfD is pretty Putin friendly and members of AfD have been visiting Moscow regularly.

It should be mentioned that they are not in power anywhere except some backwater county.

@Haiduk since you complained about "leftist" organizations, I think this should serve as a reminder that it is often the far right that supports Putin - AfD, Orban, Le Pen, Trump, ...

Edited August 7, 2023 by Butschi
Missing word

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/opinion/trump-indictment-pence-congress.html

So my suggestion is that pro-Ukraine Democrats and anti-China Republicans — and vice versa — unite around legislation that would fund a five-year, $250 billion supplemental defense bill to refurbish our defense infrastructure, create thousands of unionized jobs, restock our munitions and help our allies. In honor of Franklin Roosevelt, I would call it the Arsenal of Democracy Bill. Are you on board?

 

This is exactly what needs to happen. Make it absolutely clear to the Russians that we are going to bury them if they don't quit, and make it clear to the Chinese that bill for trying to take Taiwan will be regime ending.

Edited August 7, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Not quite breaking of course but the note of an intended air strike is interesting. 

@Haiduk et al,  if Zelensky was actually killed or incapacitated, who would step in? Would the party hold together? 

 

As I can understand, Plan B is classified, but likely this will be council. According to peace time law the head of Rada have to be acting president until new will be elected. An article in Politico about this: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraines-plan-volodymyr-zelenskyy-dies-russia-war/?fbclid=IwAR0pzoicNVfYNlRraFrkYXkMYZtJMjXBGLqDnW-W0eb5AlPcJb1rF4Tzhds

 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

since you complained about "leftist" organizations, I think this should serve as a reminder that it is often the far right that supports Putin - AfD, Orban, Le Pen, Trump, ...

The matter of far-right or "pseudo far-right" (better to call them populists) support of Russia is not so ideology, but Russian money.  Russia generously fertilized both left and right politics, activating them, when it needs. 

But Le Pen doesn't support Russia after 24th Feb, though she afraids, that victory of Ukraine can lead to WWIII. Prime minister of Italy, for example, is representative of right spectre, but her level support of Ukraine is increadable. Polish ruling party and goverment also of right spectre, but they support Ukraine.  

Why some (far-) right political organizations has pro-Russian or false "appeasemnet" (for the cost of Ukraine of course) positions? Isolationism became popular. "We have many problems inside, but current government is wasting our taxpeyers money and military resourses for senseless support of corrupted Ukraine!" Or "do not provoke WWIII!!!" And little of ideology - as I can see in tweets of western Russia-supporters, they respect Russia for "tradicionalistic values", "Christianity", "fighting with LGBT", "fighting with Jewish-Masons world conspiracy" and they see Ukraine like a dangerous puppet in hands of leftists and globalists (OMG!!!!). Though indeed level of conservatism in Ukraine is comparable to Poland or Hungary. 

My personnal big dissapointment is US Republicans, which always were hawks in relation to USSR and Russia (McСain for exanle) and now MAGA-isolationism and QAnon ate brain of half of them and their followers    

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Fighters of Special purpose battalion "Stugna" conducted hit&run action on Russian command point on left bank of Dnipro. "Stugna" is volunteer battalion of ATO veterans, it subordination is unclear. 

 

[Haiduk]

47th mech.brigade shot down Russian Ka-52 with MANPAD near Robotyne. Russian TG Helicopterpilot confirmed this - the crew is lost.

Since offensive beginning UKR side claimed at least 8 Ka-52 were shot down, Russian TGs confirmed 2.

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russians partially restored movement on Henichesk bridge, but for civil cars only and in reverse mode. 

In Novoozerne area were spotted PMP pontoons, driving to east, likely to Chonhar and Henichesl. Russians prepare for possible complete destroying of bridges

Edited August 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

Taurus possibly being sent now, hopefully they're not as useless as some people here claimed

 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

Damaging without a doubt.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/07/china-japan-hack-pentagon/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert

In the fall of 2020, the National Security Agency made an alarming discovery: Chinese military hackers had compromised classified defense networks of the United States’ most important strategic ally in East Asia. Cyberspies from the People’s Liberation Army had wormed their way into Japan’s most sensitive computer systems

The hackers had deep, persistent access and appeared to be after anything they could get their hands on — plans, capabilities, assessments of military shortcomings, according to three former senior U.S. officials, who were among a dozen current and former U.S. and Japanese officials interviewed, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

[DesertFox]

Strike once, get one free...

Msta self-propelled howitzer caught while being reloaded by KamAZ with ammo - Amazing fireworks...

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1688641365142548482?s=20

 

[DesertFox]

 

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1688671711997165568?s=20

[Vet 0369]

On 8/5/2023 at 6:13 AM, Haiduk said:

When first modern western armor became to arrive in Ukraine, I've read some indignant posts of "veterane brigades" representatives, why Bradleys got 47th, which "sit on their asses on Belarusian border, when we barely hold the enemy on donated techniclas"

I wonder, who on Kofman's opinion had to hold frontline, when veteran brigades would be leave Ukraine for training on western vehicles? They gave opportunity to train several other brigades instead. Also what he meant under "veteran brigades"? The same 47th brigade has many brigade level commanders transferred from 93rd brigade. Also, there are problem with many veterans, especialy who fought long time in ATO - they have "old warrior" complex and they have a problems to learn new features. About this wrote Roman Donik, UKR volunteer, who established the center of intensive effective training for infantrimen and squad leaders. He told many of "olds" , arriving to the center believed initially their survival under fire and intuition experience is better than field manual tatic instructions. And not all of them could finish the course and some of them were dropped out. Also German instructors told sometime experienced UKR soldiers don't want to listen them and enter to the disputes (though, after "you should bypass minefield" I not wonder). So, in some aspect will be better to teach a soldier from "zero level civilian", then re-train "old" servicemen. 

 

This attitude is not surprising at all, and has probably occurred for millennia. My Father. Who was also a Marine told me that when the MarineCorps 5th Division was formed, and Veterans from the battle for Guadalcanal were transferred in as a core group, most of them would find ways to get out of training for the “next” operation because they were already highly experienced at jungle war fair. Unfortunately for them, the training was for a relatively barren island named Iwo Jima! Many died because of the skipped training since it wasn’t the jungle fight they knew.

s.

[Vet 0369]

19 hours ago, sburke said:

fancy big cities?  and why does Musk need to be nice to Russia?

Because he’s South African?

[Battlefront.com]

23 hours ago, Fenris said:

Wonder if this is related, I think supposed to be from comments.  Is it a Leo?  (NB - posted from pro RU account)

 

This was definitely part of the Staromaiors'ke operation as the GPS coordinates shown in the footage are just north of the town.  As far as I know all of the Leos are with the 47th Mech Brigade, far to the west.  So it is not a Leo 2.

This is yet another example I need to keep in mind when people complain that CM2's TacAI sucks because it isn't perfect.  In this case something apparently spooked the tank and it drove too fast into the unknown, broke through the foliage, and then too late to stop it from going down the embankment and into the river.

Difficult to know if the crew got out (at least one guy was swimming towards the sunken tank) as there are some jump cuts.

Steve

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

This attitude is not surprising at all, and has probably occurred for millennia

Training and more training until the unit is full of potential energy and fired like cannon into the enemy. The unit sees the the horrors or war and those that survive think they are either lucky, really good, blessed by God or a combination of those. To reassemble said unit then add in replacements and assume the survivors will not be cocky goes against human nature. I think the Band of Brothers has several scenes related to this. But what is in human nature that produces that cockiness. Individualism. What militaries do is take the best foot soldiers and promote them after heavy action. For good reason -  that way they tow the company line with a higher shield of authority over the replacements. But some can't take the difference between squad and company leader. They just rather return to the familiarity of how they survived. It's sort of simple: no one who has little experienced in what I went through is going to train me. Ukraine does not have the luxury to let combat vets completely reset and come back with an open mind.    

Edited August 8, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine's recent naval actions in the Black Sea are likely to hurt Russia quite a bit as fewer ships are willing to risk docking at Russian port facilities.  And those that do will be paying even higher insurance rates, if they can even find insurance:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-declares-war-on-russia-black-sea-shipping/

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

Good news!

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-m1a1-abrams-tanks-approved-for-shipment
The first batch of Abrams tanks that the U.S. is providing to Ukraine was approved for shipment over the weekend, and the tanks remain on track to arrive in Ukraine by early Fall, Army Acquisition Chief Doug Bush told reporters on Monday.

"The last of the set was officially accepted by the U.S. government or the production facility over the weekend. So they are done," said Bush. The 31 Abrams tanks destined for Ukraine - older M1A1 variants - had been undergoing refurbishment and preparation for shipment for months.

Though the tanks are ready, they still have to be shipped overseas and sent to Ukraine, "along with all of the things that go with them - ammunition, spare parts, fuel equipment, repair facilities," Bush said. "So it's not just the tanks."

 

 

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Good news!

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-m1a1-abrams-tanks-approved-for-shipment
The first batch of Abrams tanks that the U.S. is providing to Ukraine was approved for shipment over the weekend, and the tanks remain on track to arrive in Ukraine by early Fall, Army Acquisition Chief Doug Bush told reporters on Monday.

"The last of the set was officially accepted by the U.S. government or the production facility over the weekend. So they are done," said Bush. The 31 Abrams tanks destined for Ukraine - older M1A1 variants - had been undergoing refurbishment and preparation for shipment for months.

Though the tanks are ready, they still have to be shipped overseas and sent to Ukraine, "along with all of the things that go with them - ammunition, spare parts, fuel equipment, repair facilities," Bush said. "So it's not just the tanks."

 

 

 

 

I still don't understand why the US seems so stingy with these things. 31 older variant vehicles? While they're sitting on a stockpile of around 6000 Abrams in total?

I understand that it's not just the tanks, it also needs supplies, technicians, etc. but that goes for Challenger tanks and Leopards, too.

Is there at least a roadmap to ramp up shipments ?

[Artkin]

Seriously. I've already stated we dont have a good use for the abrams fleet anymore. They made sense for a european conflict, but 6000 MBTs is too many for use in other conflicts. 

[Letter from Prague]

23 hours ago, kevinkin said:

They are becoming unhinged:

https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-to-launch-lunar-mission-friday-first-in-nearly-50-years-e99f353d

Is the lander they're planning to send to the moon a T-72 turret by any chance?