How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

T90M Chased by drone...

 

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1687535903219101696?s=20

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

Did you mean that the big light "behind" the ship was the moon?  It looks like three very bright light sources on the ship as the drone gets closer.  Even without a full-ish moon the coastline appears so well lit up that this looks like a hard target to miss.  If those ship lights were there to help spot drones ... well, not very effective without an alert watch.  Light pollution isn't only bad for astronomers.  With all the GPS etc I imagine old skool blackout curtains and light curfew doesn't happen anymore.

 

Yeah, er.  I watched it again and what I took to be the moon resolved itself down to two bright lights right at the end.  Oops.  Best case those lights were turned on explicitly because they were trying to get a visual on a radar signature.  Worst case is they were on for some other reason, such as navigation, at just the wrong time.

As you point out, the shore's light pollution is substantial.  As long as the Ukrainians had some idea where the ship was to start with, it would be hard to miss. 

This is how U-Boats operated on the US coastline in WW2.  They would use the shore's light pollution to silhouette ships.  There were all kinds of measures to reduce light pollution, but I can personally attest it doesn't take much.  I routinely navigate in water at night using this technique.  Works like a charm.  Er, except when it's foggy.  In that case I bumble around until I hit something

GPS, however, is tricky.  If the ship is docked that's one thing, but docked ships seem to be more difficult to hit (Ukraine seems to prefer getting them out in the open water).  So the ship is moving.  To get exact GPS coordinates something would have to be continually tracking it in realtime.  The only viable means of something that far away at night is a satellite or HUMINT on shore.  They could have either or both, however there is still the possibility of the boat's GPS being jammed to consider.

Steve

[Artkin]

20 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

T90M Chased by drone...

 

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1687535903219101696?s=20

That's amazing. Hunter killer

[akd]

Probably navigation lights getting amplified by the low-light B/W video camera.  What is likely dim portholes also appear as bright lights.  Another symptom of Russia not being on a true war footing.  Civilian traffic probably operates as normal in the port so you can’t really run warships in and out without normal navigation safety measures.

[kevinkin]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is how U-Boats operated on the US coastline in WW2.

I thought the same thing while out today:

Historian Samuel Eliot Morison wrote in his official postwar naval history, 

“One of the most reprehensible failures on our part was the neglect of the local communities to dim their waterfront lights, or of military authorities to require them to do so, until three months after the submarine offensive started. When this obvious defense measure was first proposed, squawks went up all the way from Atlantic City to southern Florida that the ‘tourist season would be ruined.’ Miami and its luxurious suburbs threw up six miles of neon-light glow, against which the southbound shipping that hugged the reefs to avoid the Gulf Stream was silhouetted. Ships were sunk and seamen drowned in order that the citizenry might enjoy business and pleasure as usual.”

Reading this, isn't the Crimea in some sort of tourist season now?  It took the US a few months to enforce blackouts. But they did. 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

And over at the War Zone:

Update, 7:00 AM PST: As well as the apparent USV attack on the Russian Navy amphibious landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak, there are reports that other Russian targets have come under recent attack.

There are reports that explosions occurred in the area of Yuzhnaya Ozerievka, where the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s marine terminal is located, close to the scene of the landing ship attack. Once again, drone boats are said to have been used, in this case, to attack oil infrastructure.

 

There were two drones. On the video cameraman says "I think, they hit outlaying mooring facility". Novorossiysk port is huge oil hub and has several these facilities. Most of Russian tanker-export oil departs from this port. Oil pipes from Russia and Kazakhstan head here.

https://twitter.com/Gulli_ver_sn/status/1687347613505302530/video/2

 

Also in this night Crimea was under mass drone strike of at least 18 Mugin-5  drones (as Russians claimed) in two groups. First one as if had a target Armiansk town and Tarkhakut cape, but were supressed by EW (hmmm... Mugin-5 on this distance has inertial naviagtion) and shot down with Pantsyr-S1 systems of 31st AD division. Locals say one drone fell down and exploded in Armiansk near the house, where FSB servicemen have own appartments.  Second group attacked Feodosia, where BSF fuel base. Russians calimed all drones were shot down with S-400 missiles and with AA-guns, but one drone hit oil base (but not a reservoir, just some structure), causing fire. Locals also said one drone hit (or has fell with explosion) port area

Explosion in Feodosia

    

And some "beauty" from Kyiv. During three days ago Shakeds attack on the city one was shot down over the houses. Upper stage of missile hadn't time to waste a fuel and when missile hit the drone, remains of fuel fell  down like a firework or thermite ammunition, causing discussions about "Shakeds now has incendiary warhead!"

Video of the same episode

 

Edited August 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[beardiebloke]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, er.  I watched it again and what I took to be the moon resolved itself down to two bright lights right at the end.  Oops.  Best case those lights were turned on explicitly because they were trying to get a visual on a radar signature.  Worst case is they were on for some other reason, such as navigation, at just the wrong time.

As you point out, the shore's light pollution is substantial.  As long as the Ukrainians had some idea where the ship was to start with, it would be hard to miss. 

This is how U-Boats operated on the US coastline in WW2.  They would use the shore's light pollution to silhouette ships.  There were all kinds of measures to reduce light pollution, but I can personally attest it doesn't take much.  I routinely navigate in water at night using this technique.  Works like a charm.  Er, except when it's foggy.  In that case I bumble around until I hit something

GPS, however, is tricky.  If the ship is docked that's one thing, but docked ships seem to be more difficult to hit (Ukraine seems to prefer getting them out in the open water).  So the ship is moving.  To get exact GPS coordinates something would have to be continually tracking it in realtime.  The only viable means of something that far away at night is a satellite or HUMINT on shore.  They could have either or both, however there is still the possibility of the boat's GPS being jammed to consider.

Steve

Should have been more clear.  By GPS I meant that now bombers have GPS so no longer need to use lights on the ground  and dead reckoning to navigate so folks can be complacent about wartime light pollution.  I have vague memories of blackout drills when I was growing up in Seoul in the late 70s/early 80s, possibly for this reason.  At the front where it matters more I suspect RU will be more sensible, but that shoreline doesn't look like a country on a proper war footing.

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger about UKR "small groups tactic" on southern front, provoking supporting fire of Russian artillery, which then get counter-battery strike from UKR side. Very rough translation, but the main take is clear.

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger from Kherson direction:

The enemy works from islands so far with AGS and Kord (HMG) at our forward positions [on left bank of Dnipro]. In Antonivskyi bridge area more and more enemy manpower is forming. Sitauation is hard. 

Maybe this maps already were posted here, but let it be as illustartion: Kherson with Dnipro delta and left bank of Dnipro as whole (its can be zoomed)

Edited August 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

If Russians terrorize our vehicles with Lancets at the daylight, we terrorize Russian vehicles with R18 drone-bombers at the night. 

 

[Haiduk]

BRIDGE

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian milblogger about UKR "small groups tactic" on southern front, provoking supporting fire of Russian artillery, which then get counter-battery strike from UKR side. Very rough translation, but the main take is clear.

Another example of the Russians viewing Ukrainians through their own experiences.  In the mind of this author, Ukraine is using untrained "meat waves" to flush out Russian artillery and then, after the area is safe, trained units move in to exploit.  This is Wagner tactics, but it is not Ukrainian!  For the most part the small infantry units that I see fighting through the forward positions are from seasoned units.  And it simply isn't true that they are getting mowed down like Storm-Z convict units.  The same units that are leading the attacks are often the ones taking the ground.  Hell, in some cases the TD units are making progress!

Aside from this significant perception problem, I believe the rest of what he says is reasonably accurate.  Small Ukrainian infantry units are attacking, Russian artillery responds, Ukraine's counter battery capabilities strike back, the guns are silenced, and then ground is taken with the ability to rotate units.

Also fun to see Russian bloggers having to admit Ukraine has the upper hand in artillery without making up excuses.

Steve

[Haiduk]

First photo of allegedle strike on the bridge.

Russian navigation service of Kavkaz port (oppose to Kerch) warns all vessels in Kerch strait about mass attack

 

But Russian officials since some time has refuted explosions were on the bridge

 

Edited August 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

Speaking of language barriers...

[Battlefront.com]

Further indication that Ukraine doesn't have an infinite amount of time to defeat Russia. 

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4137491-most-say-congress-should-not-authorize-more-funding-for-ukraine-survey/

Republicans are continuing to swing towards pulling back support, and more worrying similar trend with independents.  It is ironic that the Democrats, which the Republicans have spent most of my life claiming are "weak on defense", are the ones who supporting the most sensible and cost effective defense of US interests since the Cold War ended.  Note that I think many Democrats support arming Ukraine for emotional reasons rather than understanding the complexities of military and foreign policies.  But hey, as long as they are in support of the right thing I'm OK with that

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Two Ukrainian soldiers delivering water/supplies pass a destroyed MRAP, a YPR, and two BTR-4?, then pass them again on the way back.  Haiduk, who is still using BTR-4 in the south?  National Guard?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/15i597r/water_delivery_to_front_line_troops/

Steve

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Two Ukrainian soldiers delivering water/supplies pass a destroyed MRAP, a YPR, and two BTR-4?, then pass them again on the way back.  Haiduk, who is still using BTR-4 in the south?  National Guard?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/15i597r/water_delivery_to_front_line_troops/

Steve

I've seen BTR-4 in composition of NG brigade "Azov" during their training these days. Part of "Azov" fights on Polohy direction together with 3rd "Spartan" and 15th "Kara-Dag" NG assault brigades. 

This can be also Klishchhivka area, not south. There were similar situation with two BTR-4 and M-113/YPR. But near Klishchiivka operate so huge conglomerate of units, so I can't say who can have BTR-4.

"Azov's" BTR-4

By the way, training of "Azov" has led Denys Prokopenko "Redis" - he already took up his duties

Edited August 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, poesel said:

And Ukraine is in NATO? What point are you trying to make here?

All the support and guns are coming from an English speaking alliance.  The fact that English will dominate operations and permeate throughout should not be a surprise to anyone…would be my point.  And the simple fact that putting language barriers to foreign people who want to fight for what is right in the middle of an existential war is monumentally stupid…that would be another point.

4 hours ago, poesel said:

My point is that if you go to a foreign country to fight, you ought to learn the ****ing language - at least the very basics. For your own sake.
I have nothing more to add.

Dude, seriously where have you been the last 30 or so years?  We have been sent all over the freakin planet to fight (and die) for “our guys” in one steaming sh#thole after another…and now it is dawning that we did not learn all their local lingo?!  How dare we?!

Edited August 4, 2023 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

Some misc. news stories:

1.  Russia apparently expects everybody to live up to the deals it makes except for itself.  As part of the grain deal the West agreed to help facilitate financial transactions for Russia's own grain exports.  Now that Russia has cancelled the deal it says it won't restart the deal until it's main bank is reconnected to SWIFT.  The US' response... cut Russia off from the previous grain payment processing scheme done through JP Morgan bank.  Oh, the US is saying that it's JP Morgan's decision, but does anybody here believe that?  I certainly don't.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-jpmorgan-stops-processing-its-grain-payments-2023-08-04/

 

2.  Another Reuters report, though on Reddit, about Ukraine's dealings with mines.  Two interesting bits are that since Ukraine switched tactics to small infantry groups the number of men coming in with mine wounds has dropped off significantly.  The second bit is an interesting design for elevated shoes:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/15huqop/russians_lay_their_dead_on_top_of_mines_as_traps/

 

3.  Another view of the stricken landing ship being towed.  It looks like it has taken on a lot of water:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/15htxts/sinking_while_they_drag_it_olenegorskiy_gornyak/

 

4.  Homegrown Ukrainian UAV platform.  Note that the MMG is also able to be ground mounted as a remote "sentry" system.  That's two for one

Steve

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

That was not my point. Inside the IL English should be standard and I guess it de facto is.

But what happens if you need to talk to someone outside the IL? Some Ukrainian yokel (sorry) who has never spoken a word of English? Or, even if he has - what are the chances he learned military or medical slang in high school?

My point is that if you go to a foreign country to fight, you ought to learn the ****ing language - at least the very basics. For your own sake.
I have nothing more to add.

I don’t “know” if the U.S. military still does this, but I suspect they do. When my Marine infantry Battalion was sent to Norway for two weeks as part of NATO Operation Teamwork in 1976 or 1977, we were given booklets with simpler Norwegian phrases so we could communicate on a basic level.

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Dude, seriously where have you been the last 30 or so years?  We have been sent all over the freakin planet to fight (and die) for “our guys” in one steaming sh#thole after another…and now it is dawning that we did not learn all their local lingo?!  How dare we?!

His point is that if an individual from the West volunteers to fight in Ukraine, it would be smart to learn some of their language.  The videos of "Cognac" in his MRAP turret shows the usefulness of this where he at least can speak enough Ukrainian to guide a vehicle's direction and speed.

Anyway, the point was raised, it was a good point, and now we're just spinning around in circles. 

To lighten the mood...

I spent 2 weeks in what was Yugoslavia and English was just about never heard by my ears.  So I learned enough Serbo-Croat to do basic polite stuff (greetings, good nights, thanks, etc.), count, find the bathroom (you had to pay for each piece of toilette paper, BTW), get to the bus station, buy food, etc.  I even knew how to ask the ladies if I could buy them a drink   And when my limited Serbo-Croat didn't work, I sometimes could use my basic German.  From what I gathered they didn't like speaking German to Germans/Austrians, but they were OK with me doing it since I was American. 

I suck at languages, but even for a short visit I was able to do this .  As proof I suck at languages, today in my head I tried to formulate something in Spanish and it came out as  "Wo ist euer jeffe de casa?" because I use my rusty German more than my rusty Spanish.  I am fortunate I didn't need to actually say what I thought up.

Steve

 

[sburke]

20 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I don’t “know” if the U.S. military still does this, but I suspect they do. When my Marine infantry Battalion was sent to Norway for two weeks as part of NATO Operation Teamwork in 1976 or 1977, we were given booklets with simpler Norwegian phrases so we could communicate on a basic level.

LOL I'm envisioning the Marine booklet...

Can I buy you a drink

Do you live far from here

etc etc

[Jiggathebauce]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

All the support and guns are coming from an English speaking alliance.  The fact that English will dominate operations and permeate throughout should not be a surprise to anyone…would be my point.  And the simple fact that putting language barriers to foreign people who want to fight for what is right in the middle of an existential war is monumentally stupid…that would be another point.

Dude, seriously where have you been the last 30 or so years?  We have been sent all over the freakin planet to fight (and die) for “our guys” in one steaming sh#thole after another…and now it is dawning that we did not learn all their local lingo?!  How dare we?!

It doesn't follow that English would dominate operations and permeate this war at all, given that the majority of people involved are not English speakers. It has been pointed out in many ways by many people here that this is Ukraines war. 

As to your second point:For decades anglophone militaries have been sending people to fight and die in places that don't speak English without bothering to teach them basic phrases used in country to communicate with locals, and you don't see that as a historic and endemic problem?  Countries "putting language barriers to foreign people who want to fight " you mean the simple fact that Ukraine is not an English speaking country? No one is saying people should be fluent Ukrainian speakers either, but this isn't Cincinnati and there isn't a mcdonalds at every highway exit. 

Edited August 4, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

Did you mean that the big light "behind" the ship was the moon?  It looks like three very bright light sources on the ship as the drone gets closer.  Even without a full-ish moon the coastline appears so well lit up that this looks like a hard target to miss.  If those ship lights were there to help spot drones ... well, not very effective without an alert watch.  Light pollution isn't only bad for astronomers.  With all the GPS etc I imagine old skool blackout curtains and light curfew doesn't happen anymore.

 

It could also be infrared sensors on the drone picking up the hot exhaust from the stacks.