How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, kevinkin said:

If the UA knows where the Russian MLR is based on doctrine, it should be pulverized. I thought the RA was too stupid to maneuver? Or their static lines are too rigid. Outflanked etc.. We can't have it both ways.  I grant the point that the UA does not have the means to pulverized the MLR or even the forward positions

Yes, it's all about practicality.  Ukraine also knows where every single one of Russia's airbases are, and yet they continue to function.  Knowing something is not the same as being able to do something about it.

In the case of the MLR, it's huge.  No nation on Earth has enough conventional weaponry to "pulverize" something on this scale even if it wasn't also having to "pulverize" the positions that need to be fought through to get to the MLR.

The only practical way to defeat a defensive line is to somehow making occupying it impossible and/or pointless.  The classic example is the Maginot Line.  From this war we can look at Kherson where the Ukrainians hit a few places hard and disrupted logistics enough that after a period of time the Russians were obligated to abandon their MLR even though much of it was still intact.

When Ukraine gets through the forward line then it will selectively "pulverize" selected areas so that it can punch through them and obligate the Russians to withdraw from the rest without much of a fight.

Steve

[kevinkin]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh for sure that's not a good sign of regime stability. 

And how about this one. Not surprising but disgusting. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-opposition-military-children-witnesses-7110cc95432a1a3c953ffb29f8f0a9fa

[Haiduk]

Significant lose for the enemy, according their reports. Commander of 123rd motor-rifle brigade of 2nd Army Corps (former 2nd motor-rifle brigade of LNR) colonel Denis Ivanov was killed on 17th of July in own car by UKR FPV drone of 10th mountain-assault brigade. It's unclear when it became LNR brigade comamnder, to this time his name wasn't knoewn,even in Russian news and on Skabeeva TV-show he appeared only under own callsign "Tashkent". He had a reputation of "legendary commander", which could acomplish any task with minimal losses. Became knowingly, recently Ivanov was a commander of 138th motor-rifle brigade

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[pintere]

From telegram:

https://t.me/pilotblog/5624

German Interior Ministry for the first time reported how many Germans are fighting in Ukraine - Welt

According to them, 39 people left Germany with the intention of participating in hostilities. It is noteworthy that 27 of them are on the side of Russia and 12 are in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

There are both right-wing and left-wing extremists among them.

If this is accurate then… it’s rather disappointing. Though these numbers are hard to verify, they seem plausible enough as up until now I’ve never actually heard of any Germans in the ranks of the international legion. I’ve seen videos/reports of volunteers from the US, Canada, the Baltics, the UK, Taiwan, Japan, Poland, Georgia and even Colombia, but not a single German.

And considering how many Germans fought bravely and determinedly against the Russians in the last two world wars, it’s also a bit surprising.

Edited July 29, 2023 by pintere

[Haiduk]

Crew of Stugna-P, which out of missiles ajusts through own display a crew of captured Kornet ATGM, shooting at the Russian armor

Also interesting video of the same unit, confirming UKR Stugna-P exсept 130 mm T-HEAT RK-2S missiles uses 152 mm RK-2OF HE missiles (on the video operator says that it's need to load HE missile to finish off wheeled vehicle)

 

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, pintere said:

If this is accurate then… it’s rather disappointing.

In the article stated about only known "extremists", participating in the war, but not about other German citizens, which are not in the "extremists" list.

[Kinophile]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/28/7413268/

[Haiduk]

Local citizen on occupied territory wrote he first time has seen Russian MiG-29 on low altitude. Recently Russia didn't use this aircraft type over Ukraine

In present time MiG-29SMT still on armament only in several training centers and Russian airbase in Armenia, also MiG-29K/ KUB are jets of Russian carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov"

  

 

[Haiduk]

Russians captured damaged by RPG shot CV90 from the video, posted here in recent days. It's unknowm could Russians evacuate it or it's just a photo near abandoned vehicle

 

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Significant lose for the enemy, according their reports. Commander of 123rd motor-rifle brigade of 2nd Army Corps (former 2nd motor-rifle brigade of LNR) colonel Denis Ivanov was killed on 17th of July in own car by UKR FPV drone of 10th mountain-assault brigade. It's unclear when it became LNR brigade comamnder, to this time his name wasn't knoewn,even in Russian news and on Skabeeva TV-show he appeared only under own callsign "Tashkent". He had a reputation of "legendary commander", which could acomplish any task with minimal losses. Became knowingly, recently Ivanov was a commander of 138th motor-rifle brigade

 

Excellent.  This was reported a few days ago, but without any details about who he was or if his loss is significant aside from his rank.

Steve

[kevinkin]

Continuing with the societal crack up theme:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/8719447/putins-troops-return-from-ukraine-violent-zombies/

We can pray that UA soldiers are being treated like professionals at the front and receive all the help the west can give when they return. But it has to be hard on Ukraine even under the best of circumstances. 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In the article stated about only known "extremists", participating in the war, but not about other German citizens, which are not in the "extremists" list.

IIRC there are quite a few German nationals in Ukraine as part of Humanitarian aid organizations.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Local citizen on occupied territory wrote he first time has seen Russian MiG-29 on low altitude. Recently Russia didn't use this aircraft type over Ukraine

In present time MiG-29SMT still on armament only in several training centers and Russian airbase in Armenia, also MiG-29K/ KUB are jets of Russian carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov"

  

 

What do you think the significance is of this new use in Ukraine? 

Steve

[Astrophel]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

IIRC there are quite a few German nationals in Ukraine as part of Humanitarian aid organizations.

Steve

Pintere brought up this point about Germans volunteering to fight in the war.  I think his/her point was that twice as many Germans are choosing to fight on the russian side.  I think the numbers involved are so small as to be insignificant - less than 50 total, from memory.  Nevertheless it is troubling that anybody from a modern informed democratic state would choose to fight on the russian side - what is this all about?

My feeling has always been that this war needs to be won in the mind.  Russia needs its Algerian moment - something for the French among us.  The French woke up one morning and realised that Algeria was not part of France, and, was definitely not worth dying for.  Nor is Ukraine part of Russia and worth any russian dying for.

On the general point I observe that many Dutch are helping with humanitarian efforts, also in Ukraine itself.  A few with relevant experience are reported as fighting with the international brigades.  I respect and admire their individual decisions  to risk their lives in a war which is not (yet) for Netherlands existential.  There is really no reason to point fingers at any nation unless you are responding to russian divisive propaganda.  We will all feel guilty for not having done more when this war is over.  At least this is my feeling.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Astrophel
clarity

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What do you think the significance is of this new use in Ukraine? 

Steve

If this guy didn't make wrong identifiacation and this is real MiG-29.... this is nothing significant. Probably some unit moved to Ukraine for combat experience. Recently some units of MiG-29 participated in Syria campaign, but since this time most of MiG-29SMT, remained in service, were substituted for other fighter types. 

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh for sure that's not a good sign of regime stability.  It's pretty clear that the intention is to give governors, who for the most part are Putin's lapdogs, lethally armed thugs under their direct control.  When a repressive regime feels the need to create yet another parallel armed organization, it's clearly a response to a lack of confidence that the other armed organizations will remain loyal to Putin specifically.

This is now the 5th official armed organization within Russian territory, not counting PMCs.  There's the MoD's regular military forces, MVD (regular police), FSB, and Rosgvardiya.  In theory they all have individually defined roles, but since this is a totalitarian state there is a lot of blurry lines by design and through natural outcomes.

Steve

In the event of the breakdown of central authority control across Russia, this proliferation of armed organizations would magnify opportunities for one or more of them to seize control of nuclear weapon facilities. An emerging warlord/governor could devise blackmail strategies to suppress rivals around Russia and secure their allegiance. Until another warlord succeeds in seizing nukes in their territory. Or simply looting the material for sale to highest bidders around the world. I imagine this is a low probability scenario right now. But the idea behind it cannot be entirely absent from at least some Russian entities…mafiosi…plenty of players and wannabes. Especially after the near coup or whatever it was.

Edited July 29, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

My feeling has always been that this war needs to be won in the mind.  Russia needs its Algerian moment - something for the French among us.  The French woke up one morning and realised that Algeria was not part of France, and, was definitely not worth dying for.  Nor is Ukraine part of Russia and worth any russian dying for.

Yes, and hearing stories about Russians causing trouble in Georgia and Kazakhstan because there's not street sign in Russian ... Russias need to realize this not just about Ukraine, but about whole of Eastern Europe.

The question is how? If Ukraine swiftly crushed them, that might have shook them awake, but that didn't happen and will not happen. Given how the offensive is going, it doesn't seem all that likely that Ukraine will regain its 2022 territory, with 2014 being impossible dream. And we all know that all the Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity well be quickly forgiven and forgotten by Russia's trading partners.

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Given how the offensive is going, it doesn't seem all that likely that Ukraine will regain its 2022 territory, with 2014 being impossible dream. And we all know that all the Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity well be quickly forgiven and forgotten by Russia's trading partners.

what?  this level of pessimism isn't warranted yet. in fact most signs are pointing to this war becoming more and more a problem for the russian state.  Patience.

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/MJ_Cruickshank/status/1684649061419290624?t=tGvlCT1peHR443TFqfnD0Q&s=19

[Splinty]

16 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yes, and hearing stories about Russians causing trouble in Georgia and Kazakhstan because there's not street sign in Russian ... Russias need to realize this not just about Ukraine, but about whole of Eastern Europe.

The question is how? If Ukraine swiftly crushed them, that might have shook them awake, but that didn't happen and will not happen. Given how the offensive is going, it doesn't seem all that likely that Ukraine will regain its 2022 territory, with 2014 being impossible dream. And we all know that all the Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity well be quickly forgiven and forgotten by Russia's trading partners.

This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/29/1190897332/soldiers-declare-niger-general-head-of-state-coup

Now there are concerns that Niger could follow suit. Before the coup, Wagner, which has sent mercenaries around the world in support of Russia's interests, already had its sights set on Niger, in part because it's a large producer of uranium.

 

 

What are the chances this ISN'T Wagner/Russian backed move? We need to start hunting Wagner in Africa the same way hunt Al Queda/Islamic state.

[Vet 0369]

15 hours ago, dan/california said:

Also a relatively small force of KA-52s is experiencing ongoing attrition, and and most of the direct combat losses seem to kill the pilots, too. That is why a full bird Colonel was flying a front line mission, there wasn't anybody half that competent left to send. Russia really is on the verge of a situation where it could run out nearly everything on some important piece of the line. And if Ukraine breaks out of the mine belts it will be hard to stop them.

Not necessarily true. I don’t know how the Russian Aviation operations are set up, but the U.S. Military’s aviation mission rotation includes ALL Flight Officers. Unlike in ground units where the Battalion Comanders tend to not be on the “front lines,” Aviation Officers are expected, in fact are required, to be part of the combat mission rotation. I suspect the combat rotation of aircrews in Russian Aviation are the same.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Not necessarily true. I don’t know how the Russian Aviation operations are set up, but the U.S. Military’s aviation mission rotation includes ALL Flight Officers. Unlike in ground units where the Battalion Comanders tend to not be on the “front lines,” Aviation Officers are expected, in fact are required, to be part of the combat mission rotation. I suspect the combat rotation of aircrews in Russian Aviation are the same.

here has been a fair amount of evidence from this war that senior Russian flight officers fly MORE than their juniors, simply because the juniors have never gotten the flight hours to be competent.

 

Quote

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/05/ukraine-pilot-shot-kyiv-syria-russia-invasion-aleppo/

Like this guy, he is a fat forty odd if he is a day, and the Russians had him flying combat missions until his number came up. My read is that they do this because once upon a time he went through a real training program that Russia is to broke, corrupt, and incompetent to run any more. In the U.S. a guy like this would naturally rotate out to some sort flight instructor position, probably as a contractor with that waist line. But that is because we HAVE real training programs.

[Vanir Ausf B]

Ukraine continues to cement their reputation as the Noah's Ark of military hardware.

__________

Ruslan, a Ukrainian artillery commander, said the North Korean munitions were not favoured by his troops because of their relatively high dud rate, with many known to misfire or fail to explode. Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings.

One Ukrainian Grad unit member warned the FT not to get too close to the rocket launcher when the crew fired the North Korean munitions because “they are very unreliable and do crazy things sometimes”.

https://www.ft.com/content/96e1f526-ae3d-4cff-bc37-8f9dd7d5975f

 

[dan/california]

Doesn't get more hardcore than that...