How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Stock up on can openers

If you're gonna go there, don't be so pessimistic...

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Khalerick said:

I would never risk myself or family getting incinerated on behalf of eastern Ukraine and every single person who has two brain cells to rub together thinks the same. Your bloodlust and suicidal tendencies exist only on paper.

I suppose that might be true for those handicapped with just 2 brain cells. Life must be scary especially when they run out of meds. This line of discussion boils down to trying to understand where Russia's red-line exists. It's impossible to know. I assure you, many in government are up late tonight trying to figure that out giving their third cell a whole lot to think about. But I don't think they are insulting each other based on differing opinions of where the red-line stands. They have a list of items donated to Ukraine that have not crossed the red-line. (HIMARS, AFVs, 155 mm shells, bullets, boats, etc,) And as they close up shop for the weekend the question becomes: "ya know maybe we are over thinking this, let's get a beer." 

[Raptor341]

- In response to the current back and forth on the forum here -

With regards to certain enemy capabilities which we spend oh so much time discussing, I do not worry about it, though I respect it. It can be managed.  Personally, I (and many of my colleagues) are readier than ever to finally get into the fight and help win this. Everyday I wake up waiting for them to do something stupid and finally give NATO a clear, unambiguous, reason to intervene directly in this war. That’s the solider in me - - it hard to see all of our (combined) power not being used when everyday Ukrainians have to bear the burden alone (at least physically). That doesn’t sit right with me, never did. 
 

All of this to say I get it, it’s hard to watch this from the sidelines, whatever the reasons for that up to now. Still I read, learn about, and appreciate the challenges of leading the combined West through this crisis, with all of the diverse perspectives that it comes with. 
 

I trust the Alliance, and I trust the Ukrainian General Staff. I have my own opinions on what I would risk, which is more than current, but that isn't up to me. In the end, we are all on the same side here, let’s remember how important that is, even when it gets testy. 
 

 

[Letter from Prague]

7 hours ago, Khalerick said:

I would never risk myself or family getting incinerated on behalf of eastern Ukraine and every single person who has two brain cells to rub together thinks the same. Your bloodlust and suicidal tendencies exist only on paper.

Of course!

That is why we can't give Ukraine Javelins, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

Oh but that is why we can't give Ukraine HIMARS, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

Anyway, this is definitely why we can't give Ukraine tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

But it definitely is why we can't give Ukraine proper air defense systems, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

This time though, this is why we can't give Ukraine Western tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

It is however most definitely why we can't give Ukraine long range missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

And of course we can't give Ukraine the cluster ammo, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

But this time. This time for sure! This time we can't help in any other way, whether it's the grain deal (also known as "Russia manufacturing famine in the third world", something Russia does for fun every once in a while) of jet fighters or more missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do!

...

I took a tram in the city the other day, and saw a teenage girl with Ukraine pin on her backpack. She was wearing a glove over the stump where her right hand should be, and had some black cloth covering part of her thigh where something took out bunch of flesh. World doesn't need more of these.

But keep coming up with reasons why Russians should be left alone murdering and crippling more and more Ukrainians. Keep calling looking for solutions "bloodlust". I'm sure it's easy and fun thing to do. I wouldn't be able to look myself in the eyes, if I did, but you do you.

[cesmonkey]

War Gonzo reports some small Ukrainian advances in the south and near Bakhmut, and a Russian advance near Luhansk
https://t.me/wargonzo/13937

Quote

️Front-line summary for the morning of 07/23/2023️

In the Ugledarsky sector, after artillery strikes, Ukrainian troops managed to expand the zone of control along the northern outskirts of Priyutnoye and reach the rear of Russian positions located even further north on the line to Staromayorsky. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, with the support of artillery, tried to counterattack from the side of Urozhaynoye in the direction of Blagodatny. Failed to advance. Russian troops fired on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Novodarovka, Neskuchny, Prechistovka and Vugledar. Themselves were under attack in Staromayorsky, Harvest and Novodonetsk. (Fig. 1)

On the Donetsk front, the RF Armed Forces, after shelling, attacked north of Novomikhailovka. There is a promotion. Similar actions in Maryinka, near the city of Krasnogorovka and Pervomaisky were unsuccessful. Russian troops hit the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Konstantinovka (not to be confused with the settlement of the same name southwest of Bakhmut), Pobeda, Georgievka, Maksimilyanovka, Ostrom, Nevelsky, Avdeevka, Novokalinovo, New York and Druzhba. (Fig. 2)

In the Bakhmut direction, fierce oncoming battles near Kleshcheevka. After artillery strikes, the Armed Forces of Ukraine temporarily pushed the Russian troops back to the city limits in the Khromovoe area. The counterattack of the RF Armed Forces in the direction of Grigorovka was repulsed by Ukrainian troops. Under shelling positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Aleksandro-Shultin, Stupochki, Rozdolovka, Controversial and Verkhnekamensky. Russian - in Kurdyumovka, Kleshcheevka, Yagodny and Berkhovka. (Fig. 3)

In the Luhansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces, with the support of aviation, attacked in the Serebryansky forest from Dibrova and near Nevsky. No success. The same result of assault operations in the Makeevka area. But from the side of Karmazinovka - a significant breakthrough of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine already on the right bank of the Zherebets River near Novoegorovka. A little to the north, the RF Armed Forces tried to force this water barrier in the Nadia area. Russian artillery worked on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Belogorovka, Torskoy, Novoosinovo, Kupyansk, Sinkovka, Novomlynsk and Krasny Pervy. (Fig. 4)

See daily reports from the @wargonzo

 

[Seedorf81]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Of course!

That is why we can't give Ukraine Javelins, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

Oh but that is why we can't give Ukraine HIMARS, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

Anyway, this is definitely why we can't give Ukraine tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

But it definitely is why we can't give Ukraine proper air defense systems, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

This time though, this is why we can't give Ukraine Western tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

It is however most definitely why we can't give Ukraine long range missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

And of course we can't give Ukraine the cluster ammo, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

But this time. This time for sure! This time we can't help in any other way, whether it's the grain deal (also known as "Russia manufacturing famine in the third world", something Russia does for fun every once in a while) of jet fighters or more missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do!

...

I took a tram in the city the other day, and saw a teenage girl with Ukraine pin on her backpack. She was wearing a glove over the stump where her right hand should be, and had some black cloth covering part of her thigh where something took out bunch of flesh. World doesn't need more of these.

But keep coming up with reasons why Russians should be left alone murdering and crippling more and more Ukrainians. Keep calling looking for solutions "bloodlust". I'm sure it's easy and fun thing to do. I wouldn't be able to look myself in the eyes, if I did, but you do you.

Your emotions are very understandable.

But there may be the possibility that forummembers who do not propagate escalation, have the same feelings of indignation towards Russia and what it is doing in Ukraine. The main difference is that they know, think, fear, see or maybe fantasize (about) VERY POSSIBLE earthdestroying (no joke, no excaggeration) consequences, which you obviously do not care about as much as they do.

What is less understandable for me, is - as I see it from your posts - your selective anger. How many children with their limbs blown off are, and were, there outside of Ukraine? How many children die of hunger because of murdering idiots like Putin?  (I can go on with other examples, all day long!) Why don't I hear you about other suffering??

It feels to me a bit like the Black Lives Matter/anti-slavery people. They have very good reasons for their anger, and I have no problem with them making their pain visible and audible for the rest of the world.

But, and this is a very big but, I cannot understand why they think that their suffering is the worst in the world.

From about 1620 to 1890 (270 years)there were a total 10 million African slaves in the USA, which is - especially for a country that always boasts about "equal chances for everyone" - indeed a disgrace.

But from about 1940 - 1945 (5 years) the Germans had 12 million slaves. And the majority of those slaves wasn't much better off than the majority of the African slaves. But I never ever heard one Black lives matter person mention those. Or the huge numbers of slaves that the Romans had. (Estimates are 10-15% of all people they conquered!) And for sure I never heard one of 'm talk about the current slave-labourers in he world. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/09/13/1122714064/modern-slavery-global-estimate-increase

 Again, I understand the wish to utterly crush the Russian army and regime, but if you want to do that without thinking about the REAL POSSIBILITY of earth-shattering consequences for the rest of the world, than in my book you're too centered on what is currently important for your personal situation.

Strangely enough it looks to me that some forummembers care so much about Ukraine, that they don't care about the rest of the world anymore.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Seedorf81
Age kills spellingcapabilities?

[poesel]

Leo 2A6 ran on a mine. The way the guys look, it's not serious.

 

[Haiduk]

Russians again conducted heavy strike on Odesa. Likely they targeted port facilities, but missiles hit also historical center of the city, which is secured by UNESCO. 

Types of missiles, being launched:

- 4 Kalibr cruise missiles from submarine (all intercepted)

- 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles from Crimea (all intercepted)

- 3 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3, launched over Black Sea (not intercepted)

- 5 Onix cruise missiles from Bastion AS launchers (not intercepted)

- 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (not intercepted)

Russian P-800 Onix (SS-N-26) missiles turned out dangerous weapon. There were reports of their usage in 2022 on Odesa, and some missiles were claimed to be downed (or their active homing was supressed by EW). But probably Russians upgraded this missile, or use Onix-M (they claimed it has 800 km of range instead 300 km of Onix). This is supersonic AS missile, which can be fired at ships or coastal facilities at their coordinates or it can lock the target with active homing system. The missile flies on 5-7 m of altitute, so low-altitude radar of S-300 can detect it only on the distance of 21 km. This range the missele passes for 30 seconds, so crews of SAMs hasn't enough time to reaction.

Also unknown, why command don't move SAMP/T to protect Odesa after attack on bridge. It was obviously clear, Russians will revenge striking on ports infrastructure. There weren't any reports about SAMP/T work or even it service. When Patriot was adopted for sevice, there were several reportages abot in, but nothing about Mamba. Looks like single PAC-3 now covers Kyiv and Mamba can be used for covering some important military logistic hub in westren Ukraine (or also covers Kyiv). PAC-2, handed over by Germany is unable to shot down balistic missiles. 

During this strike one citizen was killed, 19 were wounded. There were badly damaged several historical buildings. Also Transfiguration Cathedral was damaged (by irony it belonged to Ukrainian Orthodox Cherch of Moscow Patriarсhy) . Despite this a copy of original temple of 19th century, which was disassembled by Bolsheviks in 1936 and then was re-build in 2005, this Cathedral was a pearl of Odesa. 

Russian MoD claimed they hit "facilities with foreign merceneries, where maritime drones had been assembling for terrorist attacks against Russia"

Cathedral before:

... And after

 

 

Damaged buildings

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Ukr troops likely reached eastern outskirts of Robotyne. The video with Russian FPV drone hit Bradley was geolocated there

Column of Bradleys and Leo2 of 47th brigade advances under artilery fire

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Ammo dump on Oktiabrskoye airfield in Crimea before and after yesterday UKR strike

Before 2014 this airfield was formally belonged to Russian Black Sea Fleet, but it wasn't in use since 1995.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

More of the same:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-lack-of-weaponry-and-training-risks-stalemate-in-fight-with-russia-f51ecf9

Gady said that rather than concentrating forces in assaults involving many units firing volleys of rockets and artillery—supporting simultaneous waves of advancing ground forces—Ukraine is attacking sequentially, with shelling followed by company-level infantry advances. The tactic “often telegraphs to the Russians that they’re attacking,” he said.

The small-scale approach, which is easier for commanders to orchestrate than pushing ground forces under covering artillery, creates its own problems, such as reduced mobility. Safely removing wounded soldiers from the front and bringing in fresh ammunition is more treacherous in company-level operations because the medical and logistics corps are less protected.

Conducting synchronized large-scale attacks is difficult for any armed force—even Western ones with more and better equipment than Ukraine has—because integrating vast numbers of land and air troops in the fast, violent ballet of a frontal assault is enormously difficult.

No Western military would also try to breach established defenses without controlling the skies.

“America would never attempt to defeat a prepared defense without air superiority, but they [Ukrainians] don’t have air superiority,” said John Nagl, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who is now an associate professor of warfighting studies at the U.S. Army War College. “It’s impossible to overstate how important air superiority is for fighting a ground fight at a reasonable cost in casualties.”

Some think this war is vastly different from previous ones in the mechanized era. But I think Zhukov and von Manstein would easily recognize it. They would be surprised that so much ground could be covered by a limited number of troops for sure. That's different. And the speed at which death can occur to concentrated formations is scary. Yet the defeat phenomena is the same. Pin down, out flank, wash and repeat. Today's general have a lot of fun tools to deploy. But if they are easily countered by the enemy they just stay in the toolbox while the grunt does the work like our fathers and grandfather did. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by kevinkin

[FlemFire]

7 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Of course!

That is why we can't give Ukraine Javelins, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

Oh but that is why we can't give Ukraine HIMARS, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

Anyway, this is definitely why we can't give Ukraine tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

But it definitely is why we can't give Ukraine proper air defense systems, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

This time though, this is why we can't give Ukraine Western tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

It is however most definitely why we can't give Ukraine long range missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

And of course we can't give Ukraine the cluster ammo, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

But this time. This time for sure! This time we can't help in any other way, whether it's the grain deal (also known as "Russia manufacturing famine in the third world", something Russia does for fun every once in a while) of jet fighters or more missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do!

...

I took a tram in the city the other day, and saw a teenage girl with Ukraine pin on her backpack. She was wearing a glove over the stump where her right hand should be, and had some black cloth covering part of her thigh where something took out bunch of flesh. World doesn't need more of these.

But keep coming up with reasons why Russians should be left alone murdering and crippling more and more Ukrainians. Keep calling looking for solutions "bloodlust". I'm sure it's easy and fun thing to do. I wouldn't be able to look myself in the eyes, if I did, but you do you.

 

Not sure what you're faffing on about here. Not a single thing you said has to do with first-strike capable assets being operated by Western forces over Russian territories. Note, this war started because they didn't want those things in a bordering country, but suddenly they're going to be chill with it, for real, as it flies over Russia? 

 

  

9 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I suppose that might be true for those handicapped with just 2 brain cells. Life must be scary especially when they run out of meds. This line of discussion boils down to trying to understand where Russia's red-line exists. It's impossible to know. I assure you, many in government are up late tonight trying to figure that out giving their third cell a whole lot to think about. But I don't think they are insulting each other based on differing opinions of where the red-line stands. They have a list of items donated to Ukraine that have not crossed the red-line. (HIMARS, AFVs, 155 mm shells, bullets, boats, etc,) And as they close up shop for the weekend the question becomes: "ya know maybe we are over thinking this, let's get a beer." 

 

We're literally looking at the result of a redline being crossed: they invaded Ukraine at enormous cost to themselves. Now, why did they do that? Because they don't want an anti-Russia alliance right next door that is, in effect, bulging right into their main territories. The fact I have to explain this being the ultimate redline when this entire conflict exists because of the threat of it is bananas. Is anyone paying attention in this thread? What are you even talking about people staying up thinking about this. You put NATO forces in the field and this whole thing is over. Things will rapidly escalate and the nukes will fly and we'll all be dead. The ghouls who framed this conflict will mostly be fine, hiding in bunkers and what not, but us normies will be ash or killing one another in the ruins.

 

This is simply not an appropriate resolution to the uncomfortable fact that, all of a sudden, military thinkers have thrown all common sense out the window as they wish under-trained conscripts to instantly develop military doctrines and blow out entrenched Russians despite being outgunned, outmanned, and having zero air support. All I see reading this crap is Robert E. Lee and George Pickett had the right idea, they just didn't probe enough, or they just didn't have fight hard enough, etc. How about no. How about attacking into the teeth of static defensive positions with zero air support has been a bananas idea for 100+ years now and not all the propaganda in the world is going to magically change it. And now I gotta read Aztecan death fantasies over ending the world because people can't bring themselves back to reality.

[womble]

23 minutes ago, Khalerick said:

Now, why did they do that? Because they don't want an anti-Russia alliance right next door that is, in effect, bulging right into their main territories. The fact I have to explain this being the ultimate redline when this entire conflict exists because of the threat of it is bananas

Most of the rest of what you say is at least adjacent to, if not the absolute Truth*, which is better than a lot of commentators. I disagree with the quoted bit, though. The "threat"** was the excuse for some plain, old-fashioned Imperialism. Russia already has borders with NATO members. Who that excuse was aimed at is debatable, but it feeds into the whole "external enemy" narrative the Kremlin has always used to unify their people behind their Kleptocracy. It panders to the prejudices of the polities that feel ill-treated by the First World, and gives the Arch Cynics of China and India "plausible deniability" for their disinterest.

The accession of Finland to NATO hasn't triggered Armageddon, which is suggestive that "Moar NATO" wasn't the problem.

The problem with brinksmanship is that it's difficult to be sure where the brink actually is. Assertions that one thing or another is definitely the thing that will bring about the Apocalypse are largely pointless, which is why the gradualist approach is the only way to escalate. The gradual approach also has the advantage that it can often have the effect of moving the opposition's "red lines" over time. Putin's Russia did that a lot before March '22, to great effect. 

* as I see it, at least

** which hasn't been real since at least 1950

[Haiduk]

UKR TG. UKR troops fight inside Robotyne. But this is RUMINT for now.

Robotyne. We are beating up rusnya now. There is advancing to the settlement. Clashes around UKRPost office area (grey mark on the map)

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, womble said:

Most of the rest of what you say is at least adjacent to, if not the absolute Truth*, which is better than a lot of commentators. I disagree with the quoted bit, though. The "threat"** was the excuse for some plain, old-fashioned Imperialism. Russia already has borders with NATO members. Who that excuse was aimed at is debatable, but it feeds into the whole "external enemy" narrative the Kremlin has always used to unify their people behind their Kleptocracy. It panders to the prejudices of the polities that feel ill-treated by the First World, and gives the Arch Cynics of China and India "plausible deniability" for their disinterest.

The accession of Finland to NATO hasn't triggered Armageddon, which is suggestive that "Moar NATO" wasn't the problem.

The problem with brinksmanship is that it's difficult to be sure where the brink actually is. Assertions that one thing or another is definitely the thing that will bring about the Apocalypse are largely pointless, which is why the gradualist approach is the only way to escalate. The gradual approach also has the advantage that it can often have the effect of moving the opposition's "red lines" over time. Putin's Russia did that a lot before March '22, to great effect. 

* as I see it, at least

** which hasn't been real since at least 1950

exactly.  The threat from Ukraine wasn't NATO.  It was a country developing a democracy and trying to tackle existing corruption that had a strong potential influence on Russia.  For Putin it is also an ideological thing of wanting to restore the USSR and Russia's imperial dreams.

[Vanir Ausf B]

ATACMs are off the table again. Or maybe they were never on it.

_________

But U.S. defense and administration officials familiar with the issue said that despite what one called a growing public perception of “some sort of slow, gravitational pull” toward approval, there has been no change in U.S. policy and no substantive discussion about the issue for months.

The Pentagon believes that Kyiv has other, more urgent needs than ATACMS, and worries that sending enough to Ukraine to make a difference on the battlefield would severely undercut U.S. readiness for other possible conflicts.

The number of ATACMS in American stockpiles is fixed, awaiting replacement with the next generation, longer-range Precision Strike Missile, called the Prism, for PrSM, which is expected to enter service by the end of this year, officials said. Lockheed Martin still manufactures 500 ATACMS each year, but all of that production is destined for sale to other countries.

“The problem now is not their ability to strike deep” into Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, Kahl said. “They have that ability. They are doing it now. The Russian command and control, their logistics, have been disrupted in the deep.”

“The problem is not a hundred kilometers away, it’s one kilometer in front of them with the minefields”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/22/ukraine-us-long-range-missiles/

[kevinkin]

14 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

“The problem is not a hundred kilometers away, it’s one kilometer in front of them with the minefields”

Thanks for the post. Sums it up in one simple sentence. However, I would like to see Ukraine get whatever is available even if it's not relevant today. It will be at some point even as deterrence. 

[danfrodo]

34 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Thanks for the post. Sums it up in one simple sentence. However, I would like to see Ukraine get whatever is available even if it's not relevant today. It will be at some point even as deterrence. 

I think need to also add that he said the deeper strike space is already covered (by storm shadow, et al, I suppose), so not having ATACAMS right now doesn't hinder anything.  He's not saying that deep strike doesn't matter. 

Hopefully the allies are sending every mine clearing vehicle possible, much of it w/o fanfare.

[kevinkin]

Not sure how many mine clearing vehicles the allies have since they never intended to fight a static war like we are now watching. If they have them, they date back to the cold war. I also think ATACAMS are a bit harder to shoot down than a cruise missile. I might be wrong in both statements since I am working off of memory. 

[Tux]

18 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Simple basic training of kids freshly reaching their 18 birthday is pretty much standardize and I don't think NATO's version will be some form of force multiplier. Lessons learned from the battlefield are very important for individual and small unit survival. But we can assume the the enemy is doing the same thing. What really matters in my opinion is training at the command level. Training the person to integrate the info coming from the top and from the trenches and act quickly as to out Boyd cycle the enemy. This training takes a lot more time and ideally involves training maneuvers. While not 100% reflective of real warfare, maneuvers are helpful in finding soldiers capable of commanding and leading rather that digging and pulling triggers. It's an imperfect science. In the case of Ukraine the needs are so immediate training at the command level might be skipped or abbreviated compared to what the US does in peace time. 

 

16 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The primary challenge, as I understand it, with the UA is mobilizing a bunch of civilians and turning them into coherent fighting forces.  So we are really talking Company and below.  Basic stuff like weapons handling and drills.  Fieldcraft and hygiene.  Patrolling, offensive and defensive drills.  In short, “the basics”.  That is an enormous challenge, let alone more advanced stuff like crews for vehicles, specialist and weapons crews.  Above this is stuff like staff at formation level - we normally get people at 15-20 years in their careers before we teach them operational level staff stuff, obviously the UA does not have that time.  

The whole “bottom up initiative” culture is great in a professional force but much harder to manage in a group that were civies 20 mins ago.  In some ways the genius of the Soviet template is that it could churn out millions of troops all dancing to the same tune.  We always tout “initiative” and good ole “gumpshin” but in reality a bunch of inexperienced people doing their own thing under fire is in reality bad.  Military machines work very hard to beat uniformity into people to get them to fight as a unit…in the old days we called it “discipline”.

Thank you, both.  So, to summarise, I was wrong and almost the entire benefit of the NATO/UKR training is in fact in the resources and facilities provided (as well as taking on NATO-specific equipment, naturally), rather than necessarily in the quality, etc.  This is mainly because any ‘cultural’ benefit with regards to absorbing experience into new doctrine would only really bite at the operational staff level, which NATO are not involved with.

Hopefully I’ve got that right because it makes good sense to me and I consider myself fully educated!

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

ATACMs are off the table again. Or maybe they were never on it.

_________

But U.S. defense and administration officials familiar with the issue said that despite what one called a growing public perception of “some sort of slow, gravitational pull” toward approval, there has been no change in U.S. policy and no substantive discussion about the issue for months.

The Pentagon believes that Kyiv has other, more urgent needs than ATACMS, and worries that sending enough to Ukraine to make a difference on the battlefield would severely undercut U.S. readiness for other possible conflicts.

The number of ATACMS in American stockpiles is fixed, awaiting replacement with the next generation, longer-range Precision Strike Missile, called the Prism, for PrSM, which is expected to enter service by the end of this year, officials said. Lockheed Martin still manufactures 500 ATACMS each year, but all of that production is destined for sale to other countries.

“The problem now is not their ability to strike deep” into Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, Kahl said. “They have that ability. They are doing it now. The Russian command and control, their logistics, have been disrupted in the deep.”

“The problem is not a hundred kilometers away, it’s one kilometer in front of them with the minefields”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/22/ukraine-us-long-range-missiles/

I wonder if the US would allow one of its ATACMS-equipped allies to send a few missiles to Ukraine just to find out how effective they could be? 

Or is the the language above just hiding the real reason - which may be to not provoke Putin?

[NamEndedAllen]

On 7/21/2023 at 6:35 PM, The_Capt said:

I do not believe that it is a case of both the RA and UA lacking “training” because there is no training for this. Experience can only be earned over time but the UA currently has the market on contemporary conventional warfare experience, not us.

Which is why I said *both* experience and training! I think we are agreeing here about the inestimable value of experience for learning.

“Furthermore, training and experience in these doctrines at the higher command levels cannot conceivably be thick and varied. Even for WWII nations at war, it took hard experience and much time for each of the higher level command staffs to excel in the reality of combat.”

We ought not to expect miracles in relatively short time frames. And I don’t believe you are suggesting simply ignoring initial training for how to coordinate large or small operations. Both  are all of a piece, along a spectrum of scale. At the scale of what is being attempted now in Ukraine, very hard, bloody experience is the teacher. Presumably, that hard-earned experience is being digested and fed back into the relevant command structures in Ukraine’s military and elsewhere: “learning.” With any luck, this is a virtuous circle. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Tux said:

 

Thank you, both.  So, to summarise, I was wrong and almost the entire benefit of the NATO/UKR training is in fact in the resources and facilities provided (as well as taking on NATO-specific equipment, naturally), rather than necessarily in the quality, etc.  This is mainly because any ‘cultural’ benefit with regards to absorbing experience into new doctrine would only really bite at the operational staff level, which NATO are not involved with.

Hopefully I’ve got that right because it makes good sense to me and I consider myself fully educated!

Well I would not write off quality entirely.  Compared to what an average conscript in the RA receives I suspect that UA at the ground level are getting much higher quality training.  But this is more than content, it is stuff like resources and facilities.

As to staff level, well I am sure there is some training support happening here as well but 1) we do not really have experience in running Div/Corp level operations in a high intensity conventional war - we have theory and doctrine, but how well that is working right now remains to be seen.  And 2) Staffs need more than individual training, they need time to gel and click, that is not something we can really "do" for someone without going in and taking over.

This is all part of a much larger force generation problem that the UA is supported by the west in solving.  But it is not like we are wizards who are teaching them magic.  More like running a bunch of basic training courses that will allow them to stay alive longer than their RA counter-parts.

[MikeyD]

Your typical CM player prefers large maps where they can freely maneuver out of sight of the enemy and employ 'clever' tactics to win (usually within an hour). Give him a constrained map with little opportunity to maneuver, plus obstacles, and the battles become much more grim. Move forward, kill more of them than they do of you, move forward a little more, repeat. Rather like Ukraine currently. Tom Clancy's novel 'Red Storm Rising'  concluded (if memory serves) with a column of Abrams  flying down an undefended forest trail to spectacularly flank the Russians. Yeh, nice work if you can get it. The enemy is not usually so obliging, though.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Which is why I said *both* experience and training! 

“Furthermore, training and experience in these doctrines at the higher command levels cannot conceivably be thick and varied. Even for WWII nations at war, it took hard experience and much time for each of the higher level command staffs to excel in the reality of combat.”

We ought not to expect miracles in relatively short time frames. And I don’t believe you are suggesting simply ignoring initial training for how to coordinate large or small operations. Both  are all of a piece, along a spectrum of scale. At the scale of what is being attempted now in Ukraine, very hard, bloody experience is the teacher. Presumably, that hard-earned experience is being digested and fed back into the relevant command structures in Ukraine’s military and elsewhere: “learning.” With any luck, this is a virtuous circle. 

I gotta be honest, I have kinda lost the bubble on what we are talking about in this sidebar.  Training and experience are part of a learning cycle.  E.g.  experience is captured, codified and then taught to incoming troops so that they do not need to make the same mistakes.  Do it long enough and it becomes doctrine.  So I suspect the UA has a significant advantage in this learning cycle, again we are supporting them here as well; however, it is not something we can really do for them. We do not have the experience of this war, beyond support, and so they are the ones that are collecting the lessons learned etc and translating into training.  We do not own either end of that spectrum, so beyond the basics of warfare - which still apply - we can only support this cycle and take a lot of notes as our own doctrine and training will be in need of revisions based on some of what we have seen.

My overall point at the beginning of this discussion was that there is no magic US/western training silver bullet.  Nor is the UA "simply not getting 'it'", which seems to be some of the narrative coming out of online commentators.  We don't get "it" in many ways and as such can only support the UA in learning about their own war, faster better.