How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

30 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I am floating in and out of the boards again, but FWIW my hypothesis remains that, like many amateurs, Putin is focused on maps: trying to attain and secure intuitive 'stop lines' on key features such as rivers or heights that can then be 'frozen' and fortified until a cease fire in place can be reluctantly extracted from a weary Ukraine.

So how does so much precious resource into Luhansk fall into this theory?  He maybe wants that N-S river line running down from Kupyansk?  I am also of the mind that Putin is making military decisions for which he is ill-suited.

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Putin's stalling for time is not stupid from his standpoint, as damaging as it is for everybody else.

I didn't mean stalling for time was stupid, it's the only choice.  I meant going on offensive in Luhansk when (we think) he has a shortage of military resources.

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But when he broke thru the British smashed the Africa Corps in an afternoon. 

Indeed, 10 long bloody, nasty days then a complete german collapse.

[BornGinger]

I'm reading a book I found in my local library which contains citations from letters home, stories from soldiers and quite a few poems as well. This book is surprisingly good and I'll buy it when I've read this copy from the library.

https://i.ibb.co/G2h40SC/Screenshot-20230716-205839-Firefox.jpg

Among the poems is one written by a man named Charles Pritchard Clayton which I think could have been written by a Ukrainian serving on the front today if any of them writes poems.

Dedication Before Battle

Legions of better men than I
Have died that freedom I might have
Shall I, because I dare not die,
Condemn my son to be a slave?

My life is forfeit to the past,
No favour will I ask or give.
But, steeled in purpose to the last,
Gladly to die if freedom live.

Edited July 16, 2023 by BornGinger

[kimbosbread]

Re Luhansk as the place for a Russian offensive- sure, it's dumb because Russia has very limited offensive resources, but on the other hand, there's no other practical place to use them. Mass them on the southern front and those t72s and bmps will get destroyed in short order. Around Bakhmut, not really favorable terrain. There's a very good argument to just husband those in Russia, but maybe Putin is very leery about having a big, unified mechanized force in Russia ready for another coup.

Re Putin's goals, freezing the conflict is his best outcome at this point- closely tied to saving his skin from another coup. The guilty rich client and excellent legal team's delay tactics above are exactly right. This is why the US's slow rolling of weaponry is so silly. There's a very good chance De Santis would win against Biden if he makes the primary- remember Biden is as unpopular as Trump was at this point in their respective presidencies (at least of a few months ago) and prices are very high. If Biden was able to secure the collapse of Russia, I think that would be a powerful campaign point- "Look at me, it took a Democrat to finish Reagan's work". Plus America is pretty pro Ukraine, so it's not like most people oppose less weapons. Because Putin wants to freeze the conflict, we need to unfreeze it and  give Ukraine the proverbial 55-gallon KY Jelly drum of military hardware they need.

[Offshoot]

8 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Something big went boom. See tweet for details. Mashchinskaya mine near Luhansk

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1680475894006132741?s=20

The The Strategic Communications Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are claiming it was a rocket storage point - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/16/7411576/

Will it put a dent in Russia's ambitions given the reported accumulation of forces in Luhansk?

[Offshoot]

The topic of online frauds in the context of the war in Ukraine has been discussed here before, so I'll drop this link as a summary of a well-known case if anyone is interested.

The making of a fake war hero: An American who reinvented himself as a social-media soldier in Ukraine is accused of 'stolen valor' - https://www.businessinsider.com/american-social-media-war-hero-accused-stolen-valor-in-ukraine-2023-7

Quote

A US veteran named James Vasquez went to fight in Ukraine and gained a large social-media following.
But it turned out Vasquez was lying about his military background and his experiences in Ukraine.
Four sources told Insider how Vasquez was able to trick the world.

 

[kevinkin]

Hearing some commentators are now forwarding that as long as Putin maintains a defensible presence in Ukraine, NATO is off the table. I suppose that means the recently annexed regions. But would that also hold true for Crimea? Putin is trying for a pyric victory the sell to his public -> see we held NATO at bay against all odds. 

[Twisk]

Could Ukraine (or any nation?) divest itself of a geographic area? Like say Russia holds onto Donetsk, which, is officially annexed by Russia. Could Ukraine then pass a law saying "Donetsk is no longer part of Ukraine" in order to gain NATO access?

[Vet 0369]

On 7/14/2023 at 11:27 PM, Battlefront.com said:

No, it's the Spanish Inquisition.  Then again, nobody expects that so you are excused for not knowing it.

Steve

LOL Steve, I think he was referring to the spelling. It should be “Angels”, not “angles.”

Hope I’m timing this one better.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Vet 0369

[sburke]

37 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

LOL Steve, I think he was referring to the spelling. It should be “Angels”, not “angles.”

Hope I’m timing this one better.

personally I think JonS little diddy was better put, but I couldn't resist throwing in a shout out for the Saxons.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Twisk said:

Could Ukraine (or any nation?) divest itself of a geographic area? Like say Russia holds onto Donetsk, which, is officially annexed by Russia. Could Ukraine then pass a law saying "Donetsk is no longer part of Ukraine" in order to gain NATO access?

That would in turn undermine the whole defense of a "western order" and reward Russia for the war.  On top of that Ukraine has shown no interest in giving up a position of full restoration of the national integrity of Ukraine.  NATO membership isn't really relevant and there in no telling how long and convoluted that process might become.  As it stands Ukraine is being backed by almost the full arsenal of NATO so there isn't much incentive to even consider a compromise especially considering Russia's stated positions.

Russia needs to be clearly seen as having lost this war after all the sacrifice Ukraine has given.  Short of that Russia will continue some form of aggression to continue to destabilize things.  That in turn would also hold up membership.  This isn't about Donetsk, but rather the example the Ukrainian people have set.  That is the threat Ukraine represents.

Edited July 16, 2023 by sburke

[danfrodo]

36 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia needs to be clearly seen as having lost this war after all the sacrifice Ukraine has given

For sure on this.  Putin is never going to stop unless he is forced to stop by lack or ability to continue his conquests.  He's definitely doing well on that front at least, wrecking his nation.  Hopefully the very brainwashed RU populace will remove heads from their nether regions and realize this was their own fault.  A country w vast fossil fuels should be raking in the cash whilst they can and building up their nation, not this idiotic nationaistic conquest nonsense.

[chuckdyke]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

nationaistic

It is with religion a stupid motivation to start a war. People have the right to think what they want not the right to start wars.

[pintere]

Sounds like the Crimea bridge was hit again

 

 

 

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by pintere

[Offshoot]

A picture on Reddit is apparently showing a gap in the lights of the Kerch bridge around the "145th pillar".

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/151o61g/part_of_the_kerch_bridge_has_collapsed_near_the/

And traffic apparently backed up:

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by Offshoot

[cesmonkey]

This appears to be the view from the Russian side:
https://t.me/Aksenov82/2844
 

Quote

Traffic was stopped on the Crimean bridge: an emergency occurred in the area of the 145th support from the Krasnodar Territory. Law enforcement agencies and all responsible services are working. I spoke with the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation Vitaly Gennadyevich Saveliev, measures are being taken to restore the situation. We keep in touch with colleagues from the Krasnodar Territory. Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Crimea Igor Nikolaevich Mikhailichenko left for the place.

I ask everyone to remain calm and trust only trusted sources of information.

And then a follow-up:

https://t.me/Aksenov82/2845
 

Quote

Given the current situation, I ask residents and guests of the peninsula to refrain from traveling through the Crimean bridge and, for security reasons, choose an alternative land route through new regions.

 

[cesmonkey]

A couple of other Russian telegrammers report that there were explosions heard near the bridge:
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/49373
 

Quote

At the Crimean bridge after 3:00 and 3:20, 2 explosions thundered.
Movement across the bridge was stopped and people began to turn around.
According to preliminary data, 2 people died, a teenager was injured.

 

[dan/california]

Hurray, bridge debate 2.0, was it ATACMS, Storm Shadow, Or another truck bomb? No one has mentioned AA fire yet...

A train bomb would be a neat bit of variety. Regardless I think this is Russia's very last warning to leave while they still have an army. How much do you want to bet the Ukrainians have special presents for Russian ships in the Black Sea all lined up.

[Kinophile]

Storm Shadow is my bet. 

Taking out a bridge support was how they nailed the northern bridges. 

Interestingly it seems the strike is in a similar location to the previous explosion?

[cesmonkey]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Hurray, bridge debate 2.0, was it ATACMS, Storm Shadow, Or another truck bomb? No one has mentioned AA fire yet...

A train bomb would be a neat bit of variety. Regardless I think this is Russia's very last warning to leave while they still have an army. How much do you want to bet the Ukrainians have special presents for Russian ships in the Black Sea all lined up.

Here's an early version of the cause from a Russian Telegrammer:
https://t.me/dva_majors/21320
 

Quote

Crimean bridge:

Preliminarily, the nature of the incident indicates the use by the enemy of small unmanned swimming facilities to undermine the pillars of the Crimean bridge.

The explosions sounded around 3 am.

 

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Here's an early version of the cause from a Russian Telegrammer:
https://t.me/dva_majors/21320
 

 

I suspect the people in charge of protecting the bridge will be forming their own Storm Z unit very soon. Everybody will be issued a rusty Mosin Rifle and five rounds, and a dull bayonet.

[Battlefront.com]

Well now, this is interesting if not expected.  I’m without my usual links to check for info, but I gather that one pier for the road bridge was damaged and two spans (of the same direction) are affected at a minimum.  Whether they collapsed into the sea is not clear.  The rail bridge and probably the other road direction are fine, but they are likely closed now while damage is assessed.  One report is that the Kerch ferry service is also halted, which is odd.

If this was a unmaned waterborne attack that would be rather intersting.  When the truck bomb went off there was speculation that the amount of explosives tha would be needed to undermine a pier would be very large.  Even then, but especially since, Russian defenses against such attacks seem pretty good. Similar to how good they are in Sevastopol. Which, probably not coincidentally, was attacked yesterday.  Trying to draw out Russian defense elements?

Storm Shadow is only within range if launched well within Russia airspace.  Whie possible, it would mean evading a lot of air defenses which do appear to be adequate for deterring a significant incursion.

Too soon to say what happened, but for sure it will be a lively topic here for a while, of that I’m certain!

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

[Battlefront.com]

Video showing Russia trying to obscure the attacked section with a smoke generator. It’s tough to see the damage, but it appears two spans are collapsed, one in the water.

Steve

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video showing Russia trying to obscure the attacked section with a smoke generator. It’s tough to see the damage, but it appears two spans are collapsed, one in the water.

Steve

Dear Lord, please let the rail line & truck line both be cut.  Thank you.  Amen.

How much of RU supplies cross that bridge I wonder?  Most of the western half of the landbridge??  All of Crimea, obviously.  Could be quite a game changer.  If the rail is out, then cutting the rail lines out of Donetsk, even if for a day or two at a time, takes on a outsized significance. 

[kimbosbread]

More important than the bridge being damaged again, does this indicate the next phase of the counteroffensive has begun?

Also, what happened to the Freedom of Russia legion? Caesar is still giving interviews in stuff, but were they forced into inactivity due to Russians moving more forces into their AOA?

Edited July 17, 2023 by kimbosbread