How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

6 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

In the context of ongoing attacks on Priyutnoye and Staromayorskoye, it is interesting that the Armed Forces of Ukraine organized close coordination between firing units. If necessary, the artillerymen of one formation assist the forces in another sector, increasing the capabilities of the Ukrainian group.

It’s sort of more interesting that Rybar thinks this is interesting. Cross-organisational-boundary fire support has been a thing since at least 1940.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Ukrainian fishermen land a T-72

 

 

Are there enough usable bits to be worth the effort after is has been in the water for any length of time? The amount of mud in that one looks like it needs to taken apart to pieces parts.

[danfrodo]

55 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Not always agreeing with his atheism but here he is right. Nationalism is the worst reason to start a war. Imo this is the case with Russia and Orthodoxy is singing the same tune there.

I'd say fervent, zealous nationalism, or any other form of zealotry that separates b/w 'us & them' is just another form of religion.  One can be fervent and zealous in many good things, like kitten videos on youtube, without the destructive side, of course, but nationalism has been shown by history to have a very, very dark side, often. 

Am I a US nationalist -- Yes!  'specially the sports & chicken wings aspects of USA.  And I like that zany constitution we sorta follow when it's convenient (generally we're getting better at this, I think, overall).  But do I think we are better than everyone else?  No.  Do I think we need to rule over others?  No.  Though it's nice when they buy our stuff, for sure.

[FancyCat]

 

 

Wasn't the VDV deployed to Bakhmut to reinforce the defense of the city? Interesting timing, or foolish timing, or maybe psyops from Russia tho doubtful. 

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Another general is allegedly relieved, the commander of the 106th division (VDV), Maj-Gen Seliverstov. Like Popov, it’s going over poorly in Russian mil channels as part of shoigu/gerasimov purging ranks. One of them wrote “vae victus” (woe to the vanquished) 1/2

There are only 4 divisions in the entire VDV (plus a similar # of brigades). No explanation/confirmation why for this, other than he was known for speaking his mind. 106th has been near Bakmut, which as a sector is strained. Pictured with Solovyev and yes a USSR patch 2/2

Still not confirmed but it’s making the rounds online. On paper he reports directly to Teplinskiy (VDV commander and deputy commander of the SMO), unless it was a direct removal from the top, as Popov said happened to him.

 

From NYT, via @shashj

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“In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to American and European officials.” Rate later dropped to 10% as they adapted tactics.

If no one was killed, quite remarkable for all the vehicles piled up. 

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FWIW in ten days’ reporting on the southern/Bakhmut fronts infantry officers have told me they are taking many injured but many fewer killed than anticipated. Anecdotes aren’t data of course but this is mentioned in NYT story today too.

I was at the scene of the Velyka Novosilka ambush (to be precise Novodarivka) described in the NYT piece - it’s a mess but a survivor told me that remarkably no one was killed.

 

 

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

like kitten videos on youtube,

I like elephant videos on YouTube. Social thinking is a virtue Socialism is not put National in front of it and you get a strong Deja Vu experience. It is all a balancing act.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Are there enough usable bits to be worth the effort after is has been in the water for any length of time? The amount of mud in that one looks like it needs to taken apart to pieces parts.

Even if they had to take it totally apart, it would be a good source of spare parts.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

It’s sort of more interesting that Rybar thinks this is interesting. Cross-organisational-boundary fire support has been a thing since at least 1940.

Heh... I had the same thought when I read that.

Different units covering for each other does take time and coordination to do successfully.  I'm not surprised that Russia appears to lack the basics to do this on a regular basis, but it shouldn't be an alien concept.  It could be that they do and Reybar is just clueless about what standard practices are supposed to be.

Steve

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

I like elephant videos on YouTube. Social thinking is a virtue Socialism is not put National in front of it and you get a strong Deja Vu experience. It is all a balancing act.

Well said.  For the record, I do not watch kitten videos on youtube.  It was just an example of fervently zealous behavior of the benign type.  I do watch a lot of guitar, Ukraine, & sports videos however.  Oh, and CM and tanks. 

Speaking of Ukraine, we've got this weird dichotomy of RU troops saying they are unsupplied while at the same time UKR keeps capturing trench, dugouts, & basements packed full of yummy ordnance & weapons.  I guess it means that there's a wide range of quality at the front for RU, both in soldiers & logistics.

[chuckdyke]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

RU troops

I think RU Troops realize they have been lied too. It is not going according to plan.

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh... I had the same thought when I read that.

Different units covering for each other does take time and coordination to do successfully.  I'm not surprised that Russia appears to lack the basics to do this on a regular basis, but it shouldn't be an alien concept.  It could be that they do and Reybar is just clueless about what standard practices are supposed to be.

Steve

Probably surprised that ignorant Ukrainians know how to do it more likely. 

[dan/california]

 

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-15-202

Seliverstov’s dismissal may be a part of an ongoing purge of insubordinate commanders by the Russian military command and may suggest that the corrosion of the Russian chain of command in Ukraine is accelerating. The Russian military command recently dismissed 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) Commander Major General Ivan Popov after he reportedly attempted to bypass Chief of the Russian General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and bring his complaints about the situation in western Zaporizhia Oblast directly to Putin.

Endemic problems within the Russian war effort in Ukraine, exacerbated by poor decisions made by senior political and military leaders, are likely prompting strong-willed commanders to challenge their senior commanders in efforts to preserve their forces and lead combat effective units.

Seliverstov’s dismissal suggests that there is a deep concern within the Russian military leadership about the chain of command in Ukraine. Popov’s, Russian VDV Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky’s, and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s challenges to Gerasimov’s and Shoigu’s authority have established a precedent for insubordination that can hollow out support for the Russian military command among senior officers.

 

This is just the highlights. ISW seems to think that Russia's better field commanders are close to the point of open rebellion as Prig's coup attempt echoes and the MOD just gets stupider. I think it has sunk in that there may just not be a Russian army left if they stay with the current plan. It would be hilarious if a rebellion by the VDV, which was built to be the regimes sword and shield, is what finally sinks it. Although there is no lack of historical precedents.

 

[dan/california]

 

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/15/ukraine-war-russia-mines-counteroffensive/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjUzMTYyNjU1IiwicmVhc29uIjoiZ2lmdCIsIm5iZiI6MTY4OTM5MzYwMCwiaXNzIjoic3Vic2NyaXB0aW9ucyIsImV4cCI6MTY5MDY4OTU5OSwiaWF0IjoxNjg5MzkzNjAwLCJqdGkiOiIzZmEzNzc3Ni05NDI0LTQyZmMtYjY3NS00ZGYyODJiMDRkNGEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vd29ybGQvMjAyMy8wNy8xNS91a3JhaW5lLXdhci1ydXNzaWEtbWluZXMtY291bnRlcm9mZmVuc2l2ZS8ifQ.4talp6iWw4xtCEUUzfPfeifLeuURkUZZ1J-RzibNm1s

 

The officials added that the U.S. decision to provide Ukraine with controversial cluster munitions will give Kyiv fire superiority for the first time in this conflict, allowing the Ukrainians the proper time and space to use the engineering equipment they already have.

 

If only we had listened to the Ukrainian's a year ago...

[dan/california]

Either Ghirkin really wants to walk out that window, or his faction is about to make a second coup attempt. I can't square the circle of what he is saying any other way. Says the Russian line in the south could fail anytime, and their are no reserves to speak of. and then he gets really depressed.

 

 

[dan/california]

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Girkin says Ukraine has a chance to break through the occupiers' defence in Zaporizhzhia due to a lack of equipped and trained reserves for Russia. He revealed this in an hour-long livestream. The excerpt from a 10-minute intro is below, while the 2-minute video is a short snippet from it. "The summer battle continues where the enemy is now not trying to break through but push through our frontline and “starve it out”. The enemy continues applying main efforts in the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the second area where he is transferring reserves, including those previously unused, is Bakhmut. The enemy is trying to achieve a result wherever possible, without abandoning the plans to break the Zaporizhzhia front. After failures of attacks using concentrated columns, since columns like that ended up vulnerable to our artillery and aviation, the enemy moved to the tactic of a complete mixing with the ground of our units facing him. The enemy has a lot of shells, he’s not counting high-precision missiles. Due to this, the enemy is trying to destroy, and completely knock out the units facing him in battle. The enemy is trying to avoid mass attacks as he made sure that breakthrough doesn’t depend on the number of vehicles, whether 4 or 40, thrown into battle, only the number of burned vehicles does. Thus, offensive actions are led by fairly small assault groups with the support of several armoured vehicles, and all weapon systems used to destroy them are located by all types of enemy reconnaissances and then struck with artillery and high-precision missiles. […] The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this. It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state. [...] I will not be revealing a military secret - the enemy knows the situation very well, unfortunately. But even in the secondary directions, the staffing of our forces again does not exceed 70%. In areas of the most fierce battles, it is significantly less. Of course, it does not compare to the situation at the end of last summer/early autumn, when 20% staffing of units was considered normal, but our forces are taking losses continuously, while the stream of reinforcements and reservists from the rear has died down. This means that if urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia. And it will be then very difficult to stop him, and no Surovikin’s line which is still in a pretty deep rear will stop the enemy if it’s not taken by trained, properly equipped, and experienced troops. If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy. This is the main question now: will the enemy be able to gnaw through our defence in 2-3 weeks, exchanging his soldiers for ours, or not, and will exhaust himself earlier. […] We’re observing. Unfortuantely, we as the Angry Patriots’ Club are unable to do anything in this situation. Moreover, I understand the emotions of our Head of General Staff, the commander of the operation Gerasimov, when “some” army commander makes demands about the rotation of units. Gerasimov does not have prepared and equipped reserves. Simply does not. All he has is already on the frontline, at the very least in tactical reserves. Transferring from other areas means weakening them. But transferring poorly trained mobilised units who are, let’s say, covering the “old regions” of Russia, is not a solution. These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy and no one will be able to do anything about it.""

This is the same Girkin speech in the tweet just above. I finally worked through twitters ever increasing dysfunction to get the whole text. He seems to think the state of things in Russia is either bad, worse, or never mind.

Edited July 16, 2023 by dan/california

[Fenris]

20 hours ago, Haiduk said:

What is a strange flash similiar to lightning after Russian tank blew up by mine?

Location - Berkhivka village, north from Bakhmut

 

A new trend with the PR teams who produce these clips? (It's also occurs to me maybe we're just old and these are just effects that can be added to any tiktok clip - watch first clip below, towards the end)

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by Fenris

[cesmonkey]

Fairly big update from Mashovets

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1025
 

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Briefly in directions, without ratings and conclusions

On the Tokmatsky direction, east of the village. Rabotino, units of the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Enemy's Territorial Forces (SME TRV) were forced to withdraw more than 1.2 km to the south .

Thus, the units of the 291st SME of the enemy, who are now trying to hold the s. Rabotino, found themselves in a rather difficult situation - they were forced to conduct a tough close combat in its northern part, while at the same time diverting part of their forces and means to the northeast and east.

In general, the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction had to go about 1 km to the first positions of the enemy’s main line of defense, in the direction of the village. Willow.

The command of the enemy troops, taking this into account, has already begun to deploy consolidated battalions of the BARS type, in particular BARS-14 "Sarmat" and BARS-1, in the rear of the 1430th MSP TRV.
Although the 70th SME of the enemy, although it is still holding fortified positions north of the village of Verbovoye, is unlikely to be able to do this for a long time, because the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already bypassed them from both flanks.

In the Limansky direction, units of the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade (OMSBR) of the enemy, with the support of units of the 331st parachute regiment (PDP) of the 76th airborne division (VDD), attacked in the direction of the village of Dibrova - from the village of Serebryanka .

At the same time, the 175th separate reconnaissance battalion, with the support of the BARS-8 "Orenburg" battalion, attacked the forward positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the river. Seversky Donets, also in the direction of the village of Serebryanka.

As a result, enemy attacks from the north ended in vain, but from the northeast direction, he managed to advance a distance of about 1 km.

In the area of the city of Avdiivka, the enemy on the southern face of this defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is trying to break through in two directions at once :
in the direction of the village of Peski - the village of Pervomayskoye
and also to restore its position to the north of the boundary of the village of Vodyanoye - the village of Opytnoye, which he lost a few days ago.

In particular, in the first case, units of the 9th separate motorized rifle regiment (OMSP) of the "marines" of the 1st AK are attacked, with the support of units of the 87th MSP of the mobilization reserve (MR) and the 10th separate tank battalion (otb), the former tank battalion "Diesel".

And in the second direction, the enemy is attacking with the forces of units of the 2nd MSP TrV - 1004th and 1439th ... units of the 1st "Slavyanskaya" Omsbr of the 1st AK and the 80th separate reconnaissance battalion also take part in the attacks " Sparta" and the 13th separate assault battalion "Somalia".

And there, and there until the enemy was able to achieve something significant, in addition,

South of Bakhmut, after unsuccessful attempts to counterattack in the area of the village of Kleshchievka by the forces of the 83rd separate air assault brigade (odshbr), the enemy was forced to continue fighting in the village itself, losing control of its western part .

To stabilize the situation in the defense zone of their 72nd and 57th motorized brigade south of the city, the command of the enemy troops continues the process of deploying units of the 68th tank regiment (tp) west of the village of Odradovka, the 80th brigade northeast of the village. Greenfield. In addition, units of the BARS-13 "Russian Legion" battalion and the 374th separate special-purpose battalion (SpN), in addition to units of the 83rd detachment, are already deployed in the second echelon.

However, despite these measures, the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their advance south of Bakhmut towards the T-0513 road in several directions at once. In particular, units of the enemy's 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade were forced to withdraw from the area west of the village of Andreevka, almost close to the settlement, and also to start fighting directly behind the village of Kurdyumovka.

Probably, in the near future, the enemy will be forced to bring into battle in these areas the units of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, the 11th Squadron and the 1307th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the TRV. After all, his previous countermeasures have not yet yielded results.

 

[cesmonkey]

I do like that WarGonzo's daily summaries attempt to capture the successes and failures from both sides, at least from their perspective. The Ukrainians seem to be making incremental progress by outflanking some Russian positions:

https://t.me/wargonzo/13828
 

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Front-line summary for the morning of 07/16/2023️

In the Zaporizhia direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked from the side of Kamensky just to the east of the M-18 highway and managed to take a number of important positions. The Ukrainian command temporarily abandoned the assault on Zherebyanok. With the support of artillery, the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced near Rabotin. No success. A new active site has also appeared. Ukrainian units advanced in the forest belt along the railway line just west of Dorozhnyanka. Here is a convenient place to reach the rear of the Russian positions in this village and break through from the west to the highway to Pologi. Forest plantations hide the movement of troops. Russian artillery hit the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Malaya Tokmachka, Belogorye, Zheleznodorozhny and Gulyaipole.

In the Ugledar sector, Ukrainian troops, after artillery strikes, carried out assault operations near Staromayorsky and Urozhayny. No promotion. But here, too, a new direction of attacking efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has appeared. They managed to take a number of positions southwest of Pavlovka. The idea is the same - to go to the rear of the Russian troops and cut the road between Pavlovka and Yegorovka. Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation worked on Ukrainian units in Makarovka, Blagodatnoe, Novoukrainka and Bogoyavlenka.

In the Bakhmut direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with powerful artillery support, are pressing in the Kleshcheevka area. In the northern sector of the RF Armed Forces, they counterattacked from the direction of Berkhovka. And the Ukrainian troops stepped up just north of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka near the M-03 highway. Under shelling, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Aleksandro-Shultin, Stupochki, Chasovoy Yar, Vasyukovka, Fedorovka, Rozdolovka, Vesel (not to be confused with the settlements of the same name north-west of Donetsk and north of Avdiivka), Sporny and Verkhnekamensky. The Armed Forces of Ukraine hit Ozaryanovka, Kurdyumovka, Andreevka and Bakhmut.

In the Lugansk direction, the RF Armed Forces managed to advance in the Serebryansky forest from Shipilovka, attacked near Novosadovoe. Russian troops hit the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Belogorovka, Torskoy, Nevsky, Berestovoy, Kotlyarovka, Kislovka, Zapadny, Dvurechnaya, Figolevka, Kamenka and Kolodeznoy.

 

[Carolus]

The paranoid part of me is worried about the rebellious attitude of Russian Army units towards Putin.

Firstly, a success could be disastrous for Ukraine.

Either they put more hardliners into power and purge corrupt and ineffective elements from the MoD and the government hierarchy, resulting in an improvement of Russian military leadership and production over time. 

Or the 'softliners' Girkin fears will take pver and give the Western powers an irresistible offer to end the conflict in exchange for exports to Russia again and consciously clean gas and metals.

And, pinky promise, they will only kill half as many Ukrainian civlians in the occupied territoy from now. The OSCE can even come an visit to see how clean the new gulags are. 

Secondly, even if not successful, the internal instability can lead to new restrictions for Ukraine like during the "Prigozhin mutiny" (for lack of a better term).

"Your enemy is weak - don't you exploit this! We want to make business with these people in a few years again! Don't hit them hard while this is going on!"

Also, it seems like the situation in Russia changed. You Ukrainians don't need airplanes after all."

As I said, this is not the rational but the paranoid side of my brain. But since the counter offensive began, I have been feeling more like things are on edge again, because Ukraine, as was aptly said before, is pressured to conduct military operations in conditions no western military would work under.

[womble]

12 hours ago, JonS said:

It’s sort of more interesting that Rybar thinks this is interesting. Cross-organisational-boundary fire support has been a thing since at least 1940.

I thought we'd gotten used to the idea that Ukraine had extended the concept almost to "Uber Artillery", with large "pools" of tubes which would be tasked according to availability and mission, based on requests from whatever unit is asking.

[JonS]

You mean like AGsRA?

[DesertFox]

The pot is boiling internally. I´m curious how long it takes until the pressure ...

 

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1680533457385013248?s=20

[DesertFox]

Something big went boom. See tweet for details. Mashchinskaya mine near Luhansk

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1680475894006132741?s=20

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

Update from Ukrainian deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar:

https://t.me/annamaliar/938
 

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In the East, the situation has somewhat worsened.

The enemy has been actively advancing in the Kupyan direction in the Kharkiv region for two days in a row. We are on the defensive. There are fierce battles, the positions of the parties change dynamically several times a day.

We are gradually moving forward in the Bakhmut direction. There is a daily advance on the southern flank around Bakhmut . On the northern flank, we are trying to hold the occupied positions, the enemy is attacking. In Bakhmut itself, we fire at the enemy, the enemy at us.

The enemy continues offensive actions in the Avdiiv and Marin directions. Our defenders continue to contain them effectively. Fierce battles continue with no change in positions.

 

[Halmbarte]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

The paranoid part of me is worried about the rebellious attitude of Russian Army units towards Putin.

Firstly, a success could be disastrous for Ukraine.

Either they put more hardliners into power and purge corrupt and ineffective elements from the MoD and the government hierarchy, resulting in an improvement of Russian military leadership and production over time. 

Or the 'softliners' Girkin fears will take pver and give the Western powers an irresistible offer to end the conflict in exchange for exports to Russia again and consciously clean gas and metals.

And, pinky promise, they will only kill half as many Ukrainian civlians in the occupied territoy from now. The OSCE can even come an visit to see how clean the new gulags are. 

Secondly, even if not successful, the internal instability can lead to new restrictions for Ukraine like during the "Prigozhin mutiny" (for lack of a better term).

"Your enemy is weak - don't you exploit this! We want to make business with these people in a few years again! Don't hit them hard while this is going on!"

Also, it seems like the situation in Russia changed. You Ukrainians don't need airplanes after all."

As I said, this is not the rational but the paranoid side of my brain. But since the counter offensive began, I have been feeling more like things are on edge again, because Ukraine, as was aptly said before, is pressured to conduct military operations in conditions no western military would work under.

It's the dictator's dilemma: Efficient military leaders are needed to win* the war but they are the biggest threat to Putin's continued hold on power. 

H

*Russia has already lost the war at this point. Even if they hold the territory they have now the cost/benefit ratio is totally upside down.