How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh for sure.  The UN didn't do anything about the war since 2014, so expectations that it would do anything now would be foolish.  However, the UN has always tried to explain away its ineffectiveness for not policing relatively small scale conflicts that most people in the world didn't even know were going on.  Now the world faces a conflict that has the potential to end all life on Earth and yet it is doing absolutely f'all about it.

If I were the enlightened dictator of the US I would withdraw all funding from the UN, kick it out of NYC, and set up a new world wide organization that was truly designed to function as a governing body to moderate and regulate global affairs.  And I would make the US have no outsized say in how it is run.  As enlightened dictator I would understand that a smoother running world is good for my country's self interests.

Steve

heh we can't even get our own gov't out of stalemate and to be effective for things that are threatening our own stability.

[FancyCat]

I recognize the importance of managing escalation, but on moral or ethical objectives to cluster munitions, I dunno, tut tuting the Ukrainians, who are facing a war of aggression from a aggressor who’s objective is the destruction of their country and people just seems purely idiotic and morally wrong?

I mean, let’s objectively ask what side is worse, in terms of regard for the ideals and spirit of IHL and civilians. 

we have Russia….who refuses UN and NGO access to their occupied areas, who have camps to filtrate civilians, who deport by force civilians, who kidnap children, who bomb without regard, and very much seem to target civilians and civilian objects in unoccupied Ukraine, who has a history of targeting protected objects in Syria, who mined a Dam, and potentially destroyed it.

we have Ukraine, where the city of Kherson looked really well despite occupation, and now looks really unwell after Russian bombardment, that allows NGO and UN access to their controlled areas, that actually makes the attempt to follow principles of IHL….

personally, if I was a NGO like HRW, I would preface every statement on the conflict with big flaming sentences that demand Russia stop using cluster munitions, allow UN access to occupied zones, etc and then urge ukraine to be careful of deployment of cluster munitions, and strictly manage their use so that post war clean up can occur. Why? Cause I have a goddamn brain, by every freaking objective measure, Russia as a party to the conflict, has illustrated little regard for IHL and Ukraine has given much regard in comparison. 

It’s like Rwanda in a small sense, this need for neutrality, for not taking sides, the moral ground was ceded by Russia a long time ago prior to 2022, and the international community will face its failure soon enough.

it’s one thing for the ICRC to be neutral, but for NGOs like HRW, no excuse, you see the reports, hell you make the damn reports, Russian crimes in Ukraine are extensive, widespread, and unrelenting, when people rely on your expertise, and you are saying both sides are using cluster munitions and both sides are wrong, damn you, no both sides are not wrong, Russia is wrong, Russia is the aggressor, Russia is the genocidal actor, Russia is the one running over civilians, Russia is the only destroying dams and shooting rescuers and treating civilians like combatants.

it’s frankly appalling, and in the same vein as international organizations urging a ceasefire and frozen line in the middle of the Rwandan Genocide and no international force to stop the genocide, no the two sides are not the same.

if you stop the advance of the RPF and fail to police the government controlled areas of Rwanda, you are letting the genocide go unchecked and unchallenged. This is inexcusable. This was inexcusable. And NGOs are failing still since then.

we know what happens if we leave parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia. In a few years, the men of that occupied zone get turned into meat shields for the next invasion of unoccupied Ukraine. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by FancyCat

[FancyCat]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Has anybody here really noted the lack of anything coming out of the UN about this war?  Especially lately.

One of the things this war has done is shown how completely useless the UN is for resolving significant conflicts between nations.  Whatever pretense it once had about being a legal and/or moral governing body is effectively dead.  There is no sheriff in town.

Steve

The only organization with a lick of credibility during the conflict is probably the IAEA. They managed to sneak their way into gaining a permanent team onto ZNPP, and have shown a willingness to listen to both sides, like acknowledging Ukraine’s concerns and seeking more access for areas of ZNPP, and being able to manage Russia into not being expelled. 

props tho to the UN executive for the Black Sea grain initiative, that is important as well.

[kevinkin]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As enlightened dictator I would understand that a smoother running world is good for my country's self interests.

All those years optimizing CM AI put you guys are on the same page I guess: 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ai-robots-tell-un-conference-133934214.html

[dan/california]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia's entire wartime strategy since the failures in March 2022 has been to outlast Ukraine.  I don't think that is practical now.  Ukraine has options for keeping this war going even if there is stalemate in the south, Russia has no active options to end the fighting.

Actually it has one, and one only. It involves bleeding and staggering, but somehow not outright failing until the U.S. election in Nov 2024. I think it is unlikely to work since among other things I expect the Russian Army to implode by the end of August. But that is the only plan Putin has left.

[Ultradave]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Behind their lines in the North German Plain....That line may explain a slightly different take by our German members

Like I said - no guarantee all civilians would evacuate and therefore not have to worry about unexploded munitions. We know that wouldn't happen. I'm just relating what the expected usage was back when they were first put in service and how it was related to us (to which many of us said, "yeah, right ". 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

You zoomed out there quite a bit, hah

I toke that as meaning the likely first hourglass to run out on the Ukrainian offensive potential.

Yup, I understood that but I don't think it's a solid assumption.  Those other things I mentioned are in motion, especially degradation of Russia's ability to continue to cover its minefields effectively.  This gets back to the point about making predictions based on current use rates as if there isn't a reason why those rates might change (for better or worse).  We simply don't know when, or even how, Russia's front will crack and therefore we don't know how many shells Ukraine needs to make it happen.  Therefore, those other factors I mentioned are in play right now even if they seem out of scale to the counter offensive.

20 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

There was also discussion on the "zoomed out" level like the economy likely limiting military decisions on mobilizations. For example, if Russians mobilize 500k to extend warfighting potential for another year this might cause such a shock on the economic level that on the whole Russia's warfighting potential shortens/shrinks. 

These sorts of long wars come to attrition and on the most "zoomed out" level we have to start comparing the GDP and population bases of the sides. And that comes to about 100:1 against Russia...

This is the reason why we have to keep in mind that Russia's ability to hold ground in Ukraine is dependent upon larger problems on the Russian side.  Someone could argue that a large mobilization that winds up collapsing the Russian economy and then Putin's regime is "too macro".  Well, no, it isn't if the trigger for making that mobilization is the attrition that Ukraine's counter offensive is having on Russia's frontline manpower. 

If I have $100 in my hand and all I'm doing is buying some groceries then it doesn't matter how much money I have in my bank account because I'll be able to buy what I need.  But if suddenly someone takes $90 away from me it is highly likely I will need to get more money to get what I need to survive.  At that point how much money I have available to me becomes rather important.

I know you know this, but it really is important for us to keep in mind that the macro picture is relevant for Russia because it's run down so much of its national capacity that something seemingly small on the battlefield could produce an outsized effect on the war as a whole.

The daily tallies of Russia's loss of artillery systems continues to indicate that current Russian loss rates can not be sustained for much longer before their ability to defend themselves becomes significantly compromised.  We just have to hope that Russia's artillery sand runs out before Ukraine's does.

Steve

[dan/california]

53 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

To add, later in the Q&A section:

Kofman states provision of cluster munitions is the single most decisive thing the US can do in the short term and will have a significant effect on the battlefield. 

It is not necessary to take the efficiency of the DPICM into account for their significance. The significance comes from the million(s) of new shells being available for the Ukrainians. This takes them off from the "shell hourglass" and enables Ukraine to approach these offensives with more freedom.

Of course, he included a snarky comment on how Europe was the main obstacle to this provision and also the main reason for the need to make this provision, given the Europeans made the needed artillery production decisions only 13 months into this war.

And convincing the Russins they can't just outlast the NATO's will to fight is essentially the entire ballgame here.

19 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The only organization with a lick of credibility during the conflict is probably the IAEA. They managed to sneak their way into gaining a permanent team onto ZNPP, and have shown a willingness to listen to both sides, like acknowledging Ukraine’s concerns and seeking more access for areas of ZNPP, and being able to manage Russia into not being expelled. 

props tho to the UN executive for the Black Sea grain initiative, that is important as well.

The head of the IAEA should be the next guy to run the U.N., it is the only international body in this entire war that has done its job. The people who have volunteered to go to the occupied nuke plant and try to keep a lid on Russia's stupidity are as brave as anyone in this war.

Edited July 7, 2023 by dan/california

[The_MonkeyKing]

here is the latest:

 

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well the idea is that the international community would enforce the law, hence all the fuss about Ch 6 & 7 etc.  Of course this all falls apart when someone gets a veto and can play exceptionalism cards.  But it is what we have, otherwise it is anarchy of states and rule of the gun, and if everyone is getting upset over cluster munitions just wait and see that happens when we all decide to go all Genghis Khan. 

And this right here is the actual meat of the matter rather than the moral hand wringing everyone is focusing on. The Administration has stated that maintaining coalition unity is why they have been hesitant to supply DPICM. That is not an unreasonable concern given that these munitions will probably have to pass through the territorial waters or airspace of at least one signatory to the Convention on Cluster Munitions on their way to Ukraine.

1. Each State Party undertakes never under any circumstances to:

• Use cluster munitions;
• Develop, produce, otherwise acquire, stockpile, retain or transfer to anyone, directly or indirectly, cluster munitions;
• Assist, encourage or induce anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Convention.

https://www.clusterconvention.org/files/convention_text/Convention-ENG.pdf#page=2

Don't ask, don't tell?

 

 

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

If this was anything but a war of national,  cultural and societal survival, I'd understand the concerns. But it is.

Anything that can kill Russians quicker and in more numbers shortens the war.

The longer Russians are in Ukraine  the longer more Ukrainians will die.

The future daily cost of UXO is nothing compared to the current daily cost of soldiers and civilians killed. 

Ukraine needs to Kill & Maim as many Russians as possible right now. We've got a munition that can do that? Send it. 

The debate on this reminded me of De Gaulle's bemused reaction when Churchill felt compelled to approach him over Allied concerns about French civilian casualties in the pre-DDay bombing campaign. It was very "what the **** are you talking about?". Churchill...already in agreement...was relieved and not at all surprised. 

[DesertFox]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

If this was anything but a war of national,  cultural and societal survival, I'd understand the concerns. But it is.

Anything that can kill Russians quicker and in more numbers shortens the war.

The longer Russians are in Ukraine  the longer more Ukrainians will die.

The future daily cost of UXO is nothing compared to the current daily cost of soldiers and civilians killed. 

Ukraine needs to Kill & Maim as many Russians as possible right now. We've got a munition that can do that? Send it. 

Exactly. Everything except nukes should be sent. Give them everything which shortens the war and avoids more unnecessary ukrainian casualties. Zero symphaties here for those hypocrites arguing this or that weapon system could "escalate" the situation.

[DesertFox]

4 hours ago, Jr Buck Private said:

Since Ukraine has started their offensive does anybody know what their casualty rates have been?   I'm hoping they are well below the norm as far as what an attacking force normally suffers.   The Bradley's and other western fighting vehicles have definitely helped out.  My gut feeling is that they are better than expected, but of course Ukraine hasn't really gone "balls out" yet either.

Ukrainian source, so take it with a grain of salt. However looks to me it is the correct ballpark figure.

"The ratio of irretrievable losses in the South is 1 to 5.3"- Deputy Defense Minister Malyar In Bakhmut, the enemy is actually trapped. The Armed Forces made it as difficult as possible for the enemy to move and made it impossible to get out, — the deputy of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. "Due to the significant losses of the enemy in manpower in the South, some enemy units refuse to participate in hostilities. The ratio of irreversible losses in the South is 1 to 5.3. That is, the enemy in the South loses 5.3 times more servicemen than ours." - writes Malyar. "For the last day, the defense forces advanced more than a kilometer in the direction of Bakhmut" — Cherevaty. The representative of the Eastern Group of Forces says that the Armed Forces continue to hold the initiative and advance along the northern and southern flanks in the same direction.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1677368874944061445?s=20

 

[FancyCat]

IAEA got more access but not to the rooftops. Took small quote from the press release.

Again, compared to the rest of the international community, IAEA definitely deserves props.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-172-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Quote

“Following our requests, our experts have gained some additional access at the site. So far, they have not seen any mines or explosives. But they still need more access, including to the rooftops of reactor units 3 and 4 and parts of the turbine halls.

 

[The_Capt]

47 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

And this right here is the actual meat of the matter rather than the moral hand wringing everyone is focusing on. The Administration has stated that maintaining coalition unity is why they have been hesitant to supply DPICM. That is not an unreasonable concern given that these munitions will probably have to pass through the territorial waters or airspace of at least one signatory to the Convention on Cluster Munitions on their way to Ukraine.

1. Each State Party undertakes never under any circumstances to:

• Use cluster munitions;
• Develop, produce, otherwise acquire, stockpile, retain or transfer to anyone, directly or indirectly, cluster munitions;
• Assist, encourage or induce anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Convention.

https://www.clusterconvention.org/files/convention_text/Convention-ENG.pdf#page=2

Don't ask, don't tell?

 

 

Well conveniently Poland is also not a signatory to the convention.  So unless European nations want to wholesale ban US military transport overflights - which would be a bad idea.  I would say that everyone is going to simply turn a blind eye.  What will get interesting is if the damn things work out too well and member nations like Lithuanian start backing away from the convention.

Of course it is freaking 2023, why we cannot produce sub-munitions that have a 100% neutralizing capability is beyond me.  I mean making the fuses electronic on batteries alone will mean that they go inert when the juice runs out.  I suspect we will see PGM sub-munitions (if they are not out there all ready).

[The_MonkeyKing]

aand it is official:

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[cesmonkey]

15 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

aand it is official:

He basically says that the cluster munitions will help provide a bridge of additional artillery ammunition to Ukraine while America's artillery ammunition production capacity ramps up. And claims Russia's cluster munitions being used in Ukraine have a dud rate of between 30 and 40 percent. A more formal announcement will come later this afternoon when the Pentagon releases the details of the latest aid package.

[DesertFox]

Dutch gov is fallen. Might have, might not have an impact on the F16 coalition. We will see.

 

Kabinet gevallen, geen akkoord over asielmaatregelen (nos.nl)

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1677392171685519378?s=20

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1677391922602582031?s=20

Live: Kabinet-Rutte IV gevallen • Ministerraad om 21.30 uur, daarna persconferentie (volkskrant.nl)

Edited July 7, 2023 by DesertFox

[kimbosbread]

The epic influx from Africa + ME over the next decade as water/food/war issues in those areas continue is going to cause serious political instability in Europe.

I propose that as part of reparations, Russia gets to take the asylum seekers and put them in the far east.

[cesmonkey]

Here's the cluster munitions, officially:

155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM, and 105mm artillery rounds;
 

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote

The capabilities in this package include:

Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
31 155mm Howitzers;
155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM, and 105mm artillery rounds;
32 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
Mine clearing equipment;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
Precision aerial munitions; 
Penguin Unmanned Aerial Systems;
27 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
10 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing; 
Small arms and over 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
Spare parts and other field equipment.
 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Here's the cluster munitions, officially:

155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM, and 105mm artillery rounds;
 

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

 

We are really seeing the changed accounting in effect. 

That is ridiculously large amount of hardware for 800million...

[The_MonkeyKing]

23 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Dutch gov is fallen. Might have, might not have an impact on the F16 coalition. We will see.

 

Kabinet gevallen, geen akkoord over asielmaatregelen (nos.nl)

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1677392171685519378?s=20

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1677391922602582031?s=20

Live: Kabinet-Rutte IV gevallen • Ministerraad om 21.30 uur, daarna persconferentie (volkskrant.nl)

 

not surprising 

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

We are really seeing the changed accounting in effect. 

That is ridiculously large amount of hardware for 800million...

tbf these things were being decommissioned, so if they had a negative book value done for the accounting, it would be accurate, considering costs for decommissioning, storage, destruction. 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Everything except nukes should be sent.

Dum dums. Chemical. Biological. Carpet bombing Moscow. Go for it. It's all on the table.

Do you spend a *lot* of time looking into the abyss?

[Jr Buck Private]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Ukrainian source, so take it with a grain of salt. However looks to me it is the correct ballpark figure.

"The ratio of irretrievable losses in the South is 1 to 5.3"- Deputy Defense Minister Malyar In Bakhmut, the enemy is actually trapped. The Armed Forces made it as difficult as possible for the enemy to move and made it impossible to get out, — the deputy of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. "Due to the significant losses of the enemy in manpower in the South, some enemy units refuse to participate in hostilities. The ratio of irreversible losses in the South is 1 to 5.3. That is, the enemy in the South loses 5.3 times more servicemen than ours." - writes Malyar. "For the last day, the defense forces advanced more than a kilometer in the direction of Bakhmut" — Cherevaty. The representative of the Eastern Group of Forces says that the Armed Forces continue to hold the initiative and advance along the northern and southern flanks in the same direction.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1677368874944061445?s=20

 

Thanks DesertFox.

At a bare minimum the Russians are probably losing more on the defensive.  As long as that holds true then Ukraine's somewhat cautious approach to the offensive is paying off.   Why waste lives if you can continue to blow up their ammo dumps and artillery.   As time goes on more and more Russians will probably just surrender.   That's my hope at least.