How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Nice example of airburst HE doing its thing to Russian troops moving in the open:

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by akd

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is not really how it works.  Anything short of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is not going to give strategic deterrence.  Ukraine is waging an epic war right now but no weapons we can give Ukraine are going to deter Russia from the big nasty stuff. 

What is deterring Russia from the use of nuclear weapons on Kyiv is that it would raise our level of uncertainty about Russia as a rational state to a crisis point - the worse thing any revisionist power can do is get the West to get off the couch.  If we are being brutally honest, we in the West would feel very bad about Kyiv on the receiving end of a nuclear device but that is not what would cause the reaction…it would be the uncertainty of nukes in New York or Toronto (well maybe not so much Toronto).

That uncertainty would demand a response, and even Russia does not want to see what that would look like.  We brought them to their knees in a proxy war with a small power that was supposed to fall in a few days.  Do you think that maybe what happens if we really get involved isn’t in the Russian calculus?  I argue that the evidence that they have tied themselves into knots to avoid direct escalation with NATO proves that they are very concerned.

I do not think Russia has outpaced anything.  They are on the freakin defensive right now while managing whatever that freakin thing was a couple weeks ago.  No one serious is talking about Russian victory, we are too concerned with Russian full blown collapse.  They are barely able to conduct coherent anything right now, let alone a game of escalation dominance.  Most of the energy is trying to figure out how to prevent a Russian spiral, up or down because they are a complete hot mess.  

Syria, Georgia, Chechnya, we talked ourselves into a status quo lie, that much is true.  We embraced our certainty to the point that it became a blindfold.  Russia’s biggest mistake, and it is one for the history books, was tearing that blindfold off with this war.

Yes and my point here is that no weapons that can be realistically provided to Ukraine would deter Russia from using nukes. It's a fact, shouldn't be even discussed. However the point here is that by "outpacing" the escalation (e.g. we are still not allowed to strike targets within russian territory using storm shadow despite huge escalation on russian part as an example) russians may get an impression (and I'm not saying a legit one or not) that the West is hitting the breaks in this run - and they may consider using actual WMDs to get what they want.

If they are using exactly the same tactic as the West - boiling the frog slowly - and it works - e.g. ZNPP gets blown up, this makeshift dirty bomb irradiates large chunks of land and no real escalation happens in turn (as in - now you can absolutely smash russians anywhere with ATACAMS, oh and here have our 500 km storm shadows, blow all their **** up ASAP - for example) - so what would it tell russians if we get neutral "let's not get ahead of ourselves" reaction to an act of nuclear terrorism. If the West doesn't get off the couch and downplays the thing?

Are you certain possible terrorist act using ZNPP won't be downplayed resulting in de-escalation instead of escalation?

A year ago I myself would claim that no way, that would trigger the response. In fact we saw several countries take a similar stance a year ago. Even Stoltenberg hinted it's an Article 5 case. A year ago.

But right now - there's silence. Only Russia can be heard. And that's what makes me worried the frog is being boiled slowly and it may just work.

As for russians being on the defensive - sure, it's true. Nobody even remotely considers russians winning this war. But they may do enough damage for Ukraine to not win it either. We are already denied most of our industrial regions by them being wiped off the face of the earth - if the same happens to our agrarian lands - will there even be a victory for us save for being able to remain Ukraine?

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

And just today we saw chemical weapons

I... don't think we have. There was some dude on Twitter claiming that. Can we please wait for confirmation on things on such scale? And not jump to conclusions before? Otherwise we can just as well take Russian mil bloggers as truth. Or BILD-Zeitung, for the Germans among us.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Butschi

[sburke]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

I, for one, just vent sometimes about western support. 

Sometimes?  

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, kraze said:

Are you certain possible terrorist act using ZNPP won't be downplayed resulting in de-escalation instead of escalation?

Well it will definitely be viewed as an escalation, the question is “how much”.  I think that Russia having some sort of escalation dominance has been a myth since the beginning of this thing.  Repeatedly, Russian escalation has 1) been underwhelming and 2) resulted in a Western escalation that Russia cannot counter.  

I am less worried about Russia “thinking they can get away with it”because of western inaction at this point - we already have far too much sunk cost in this thing to back off now.  NATO is securing the next decades worth of defence spending, industry in the west is ramping up - “war is business and business is f#cking booming baby!”  We are talking trillions here and it all needs a scary enemy to point at.  Russia was dumb enough to put up its hand up in Europe and we are talking ourselves into China one way or the other.  Russia thinking it can get away with WMDs is one helluva leap to make for a below threshold action right now.

My concerns are the other way - Russia figuring out that they have nothing left to lose, or simply losing control of the WMDs in the end.  The end results we are debating are on opposite sides of a spectrum but have the same result…a lot of bad.  So what are we doing…navigating the middle until there is no middle left.  Outpacing escalation can actually drive us out of viable escalation room.  Say we do start green lighting strikes into Russia…what do we have left?  Someone said “strike the Russian Navy and take it out” while an escalation, it is not viable in the current strategic context.  In fact it would be WW3 at that point and we would not stop at the Russian Navy.

Your concern is valid: are we boiling them or are they boiling us?  As this war has unfolded I was more concerned in the early days than I am now.  While the West has been restrained, Russia has shown itself full of BS.  No massive mobilization - millions of Russian troops pouring over the border were a no show.  No carpet bombing of cities, just spiteful lobbing of a mess of a missile campaign which is only demonstrating their weaknesses.  No WMDs, just some crappy flooding and maybe some sort of nuclear “whoopsie” that is just as likely to drift into Russia.  None of this is the ”shock and awe” everyone was going on about a year ago.

As to “silence”, well US Congress made a bilateral statement which in this day and age is a freakin unicorn.  I also suspect that red phones are going off all over the place, the greater worry is that someone in Russia is actually picking up.

As to war damage to Ukraine, Russia does not need to throw a radiation tantrum, great swaths of Ukraine are a century problem right now with RoW and mines.  As I have said repeatedly the Reconstruction will need to be historic or there was no point.  We are talking economic sector re-wiring epic, like Japan post WW2.  And if Russia wants back into any sort of club and not wind up an Eastern European North Korea it is going to have to foot a portion of the bill.

You, and others appear to be pointing out the glass if half empty.  I am not saying the glass if half full. I am saying it is a freakin Christmas miracle that the bar is still standing and we are well past worrying about stupid glasses.  This war has become a great power shaping and positioning exercise in many dimensions.  The stakes got really high, really fast and we are pretty much committed at this point.

[DesertFox]

Quote from Philips OBrians substack

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK’s Chief of the Defence Staff, the senior professional officer in the UK military, gave testimony to the UK Parliament’s Defence Committee.

Parliamentlive.tv - Defence Committee

 

At just after 15:41 on the clock, Admiral Radakin gets onto the state of the Russo-Ukraine war, and its fascinating.

1. Radakin says he is regularly in touch with Zaluzhny and Milley and other senior officers—in other words, he’s plugged in.

2. When it comes to the counteroffensive. “the full counteroffensive has not started”

Then he tries to describe what the Ukrainians are doing—and he calls their tactics: “starve, stretch and strike”

Some actual evidence on the state of the war (substack.com)

 

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1676336023457107968?s=20

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by DesertFox

[kimbosbread]

On the bright side, blowing up the ZNPP has some strategic upside for the US vis a vis the coming war in the South China Sea. Our position as the #1 food producer in the world is even stronger, and our dear friends in the east are in an even more precarious position given their reliance on food imports and use of phosphate fertilizers due to poverty soil.

EDIT: Yes, I'm assuming there is no way to deter Russia from blowing up the plant. Poland invading Belarus might be preferable to a slow boil.

Edited July 4, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Carolus]

9 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

On the bright side, blowing up the ZNPP has some strategic upside for the US vis a vis the coming war in the South China Sea. Our position as the #1 food producer in the world is even stronger, and our dear friends in the east are in an even more precarious position given their reliance on food imports and use of phosphate fertilizers due to poverty soil.

Russia is a net exporter of grain and fertilizer and Russian freight ships are operating completely free on the oceans, regardless of whether they carry military goods to Russia or stolen Ukrainian goods from Sewastopol. They even process Wagner's blood gold from Africa via London and Switzerland, completely legal.

Additionally, Xi Jinping has made it state policy to become as food independent as possible and they have already been making progress over last year. And if the going gets tough, the CCP has zero problems to starve part of its population to stay in power.

So, in total, I find very little to be positive about a possible radiation leak from ZNPP.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Carolus
typos

[Jr Buck Private]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

This is what is left of three Storm Z platoons:

 

It's good to see that crime really doesn't pay, especially in Ukraine!

 

[pintere]

A clip has been making the rounds of a Russian being very visibly hurled into the air after his tank blew up. Based on the video it looks like he was riding on the tank just in front of the turret on the right hand side. Then, after the tank hit a mine (??) he was flung into the air before landing about 100 metres away.

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by pintere

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Sometimes?  

While I am well behind the leader in this field, DanCA, I do my best to throw the occasional temper tantrum over UKR aid being caught up in bureaucracy.  But thanks for your recognition of my efforts in this area. 

[FancyCat]

Just a small reminder, this is Ukrainian blood, Ukrainian land, Ukrainian water, Ukrainian food, Ukrainian people who are arguably at most risk from nuclear escalation in Ukraine, and not even Russian civilians need be concerned about Ukraine in terms of death or risk of life, and I definitely think there are major rungs of escalation that may result in damage only occurring in Ukraine, nuclear included. 

There is a lot that the West can do, that precludes it from troops on the ground, or airstrikes or whatnot, certainly the dam destruction seemed to have barely caught a blip in the West, a lot more pressure should be brought to bare on ZNPP incidents occurring, including more neutral personnel, more involvement by neutral states, definitely western pressure on Russia needs to include more international neutral sorta pushing for ZNPP to be monitored, the dam had to my knowledge, no direct repercussions on Russia, in terms of sanctions, equipment to Ukraine, or some semblance of urgency. There is definitely a downside to the West retaining the right of first reply in escalation, and that usually is some sort of mass civilian loss of life has to occur in Ukraine before the West gets up and touts aid to it. 

[akd]

24 minutes ago, pintere said:

A clip has been making the rounds of a Russian being very visibly hurled into the air after his tank blew up. Based on the video it looks like he was riding on the tank just in front of the turret on the right hand side. Then, after the tank hit a mine (??) he was flung into the air before landing about 100 metres away.

 

That's some material that was next to the BTR, not one of the men on top.  Go frame by frame and you can see it originate next to the BTR. The riding infantry are bounced, then jump off. Might be discarded coveralls from the crew of the abandoned tank?

Edited July 4, 2023 by akd

[JonS]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Just a small reminder, this is Ukrainian blood, Ukrainian land, Ukrainian water, Ukrainian food, Ukrainian people who are arguably at most risk from nuclear escalation in Ukraine

Yes yes, but you're missing the *really* important point; it's a golden opportunity for the US to exert monopoly control over global food supplies.

[paxromana]

23 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yes yes, but you're missing the *really* important point; it's a golden opportunity for the US to exert monopoly control over global food supplies.

Australia, Canada and South America might dispute the monopoly part.

[Offshoot]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Might be discarded coveralls from the crew of the abandoned tank?

Did someone say discarded tank crew coveralls?

https://t.me/supernova_plus/21752

Naked Russian soldier filmed escaping from damaged tank - https://english.nv.ua/life/naked-russian-soldier-filmed-escaping-from-damaged-tank-ukraine-war-news-50336249.html

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Yes yes, but you're missing the *really* important point; it's a golden opportunity for the US to exert monopoly control over global food supplies.

Not particularly relevant, the political value of happier farmers means little to Democrats largely. Certainly not enough to outweigh the consumer pain of higher food pricing and inflation.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, paxromana said:

Australia, Canada and South America might dispute the monopoly part.

Take it up with kimbosbread

[FancyCat]

Let's assume the Russians littered the dam with explosives but a idiot accidentally set it off too early instead of doing it during a Ukrainian offensive. Same principle probably applies here, sure Russia isn't blasting the plant now, but you do need to prep it. It would be nice for the IAEA to be given the ability to inspect all of the ZNPP, or a demilitarized zone with neutral peacekeepers under UN mandate. Imo, a western push for neutral peacekeepers/demilitarized zone on the site of ZNPP would be a good way of illustrating both care for the safety of the plant and Ukraine and opposing Russia.

Quote

IMHO, nothing is going to happen to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power plant neither tonight nor tomorrow or in the nearest time.   Russians have 0 reasons to blow up the biggest European NPP and therefore lose such a precious economic facility and such a handy instrument of intimidation and blackmailing against Ukraine & the world.   And if so, absolutely no one is going to very seriously buy it that it was Ukraine that blew up a giant NPP in the middle of its own national territory (well, no one except for the most interesting personalities on this website, I agree).  But if/when Russians have to leave the plant as a result of a military defeat -- they will be more than interested in stripping Ukraine of such a priceless facility that is crucial for the country's post-war reconstruction and development.   So unless the world gives a very clear message (such as "Ukraine will get a stockpile of Tomahawk missiles if anything happens to the NPP", for instance), chances are high that Russians are going to do that.   But before they have to leave forever, this is unlikely.  However, given all the dumb **** they've done throughout this war & beyond, that's not the hill I'd die on.

 

[MikeyD]

Reuters has an article, dated 8:05 pm July 4th, that has Ukrainian officials saying they've had a 'particularly fruitful' past few days. Its light on the details but at least its not one of the recent 'doom and gloom' reports. One would imagine a fruitful day would entail drawing out Russian forces so they can then eliminate them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-reports-particularly-fruitful-few-days-counteroffensive-2023-07-04/

 

[danfrodo]

21 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Reuters has an article, dated 8:05 pm July 4th, that has Ukrainian officials saying they've had a 'particularly fruitful' past few days. Its light on the details but at least its not one of the recent 'doom and gloom' reports. One would imagine a fruitful day would entail drawing out Russian forces so they can then eliminate them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-reports-particularly-fruitful-few-days-counteroffensive-2023-07-04/

 

I'd like UKR to stay on the doom & gloom just to make RU reinforce whatever bad choices it's making.  Bad PR w the west but that won't matter for long if UKR is confident RU is on the ropes.

[alison]

A bit off topic but thanks FancyCat for quoting the whole tweet in your recent post. It solves two annoyances of people posting tweets: 1) the broken embedding in the forum software that require constant reloads to see what people are actually responding to, and 2) the need to click through to read the full message, only recently to get blocked by a login wall anyway. 

[dan/california]

OSINTtechnical has about ten new posts of Russian stuff going boom. About half grenade drops, and half drone spotted PGMs. 

[Huba]

Jaw-dropping footage of yesterday's strike at RU ammo depot, a must watch!

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Jaw-dropping footage of yesterday's strike at RU ammo depot, a must watch!

Ukrainians, being grateful allies, decided to celebrate 4 July in a big way.