Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

Wagnerite channel Grey Zone:

Quote

UPDATE on Robotne
The AFU has advanced about 1.5 kilometers today, and tree lines at [our] positions have been cut to virtually nothing.
According to the most recent reports, the battle was already taking place inside our defensive lines. The enemy achieved a breakthrough with nearly no vehicles this time. With the exception of mortars, the division's artillery and regimental artillery exhibited absolutely no indications of life. Our aviation, for the most part, did nothing.

The enemy must go 1.5 kilometers to Robotne.

Perhaps Yevgeny Viktorovich is aware of the AFU offensives ahead of time, and this statement came from the future.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

Well at least all these "good" russians start dropping all pretenses and openly support murderers, looters and rapists either side.

For what it's worth, the Russian Liberation guys put out a video saying Prig and Putin are the same thing and therefore they will liberate Russia from either.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hcepi/freedom_russia_legion_caesars_address_on_the/

Possibly the first footage of airstrikes on Wagner convoys:

 

7 minutes ago, akd said:

WTF is happening here?

 

Look at the very last frame and you'll see two armed guys sitting with civilians with their helmets off.  Non-Wagner guys who are staying out of the fight?

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is no going back for Prig.

I agree. ISW may change they assessment tomorrow. Things are moving so fast, I will give them slack. 

Nothing like a 2 front war, especial when the second one is in your strategic rear in your home country. Very loosely reminds me of the end of WW1. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Huba said:

FIrst time he appeared on a video since all of that started:

 

I had a brief peek at their dialogue, which is pathetic. A bunch of pitiful old guys debating over pathetic stuff, such as whether Evkurov (RU MOD) has the right to address Prig using a personal version of You (In RU, there are two versions of You, Personal You (single) and Respectable You (plural). It reminds me of an unfunny old clown show.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

Not me. But the video says a lot. Kuzovlev is either completely humiliated or part of the coup.  

Prig's bodyguards are definitely on edge, looking for snipers (and drones?).  Yet Kuzovlev (?) pulls out his smartphone in the middle of the talk. Umm, homing device anyone?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And here's an address from Prig. @Grigb this is something to  summarise I think. What I get with my high school Russian is that they took full control of Rostov, including the airport.


Edit: changed the link to one with some translation

Edited by Huba
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The best scenario for Ukraine is prolonged conflict between Wagner and MoD. I wonder if this internal power play might just result in quick dismissal of the ppl Prigozhin is aiming at, that wouldn’t be great either, Prig is still a hardliner, one unconstrained too.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Do you think events tonight will change ISW assessment of what Wagner is targeting? Anyway, I wonder if they bag a lot of important officers, or they ran away, or the might be supporting the coup? 

I think Prigozhin had a real plan, at least some support from outside Wagner, and had probably bribed some critical people as well. It would be one thing SMD if headquarters was a smoking hole in the ground when Wagner took it over. There is no evidence they had to fire anything bigger than a sub machine gun, and perhaps not even that.

GrigB is the resident subject matter expert, and I think his idea is a plausible as anything else. As for me I am rapidly coming to agree with Huba, and starting to wonder if Putin is dead, or so sick he might as well be. This would be the first move in the game of thrones to succeed him, if so.  Please note I expect that struggle to be at lest as ugly as the one in the books. Happily I think virtually all of these outcomes are good for Ukraine.

It will be fascinating whether or not we get a video of Putin tomorrow saying something about the crisis that makes sense, and isn't obviously a deep fake of some sort, or not. If we get some recorded speech about fertilizer production it is Katie bar door.

We talked thru a LOT of different scenarios for regime failure in Russia several months go. I think we are on one of the more plausible paths to that very thing, unless they sort who is actually in charge in the next 36 hours. Not sure they even have that long. And remember this is a conflict where absolutely all the major players know they are far better off to eat their pistol than to even consider surrendering. Most of them are so toxic their exile options are not great either.

Edited by dan/california
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

The best scenario for Ukraine is prolonged conflict between Wagner and MoD. I wonder if this internal power play might just result in quick dismissal of the ppl Prigozhin is aiming at, that wouldn’t be great either, Prig is still a hardliner, one unconstrained too.

Whatever Prig says about not interfering with the war effort is BS, you can bet the MoD is busily stopping any war material going into Rostov to prevent Prig from possibly grabbing it.  The supply situation just got a lot worse for the Russian troops in Ukraine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BBC again. Taylor comments that the coup will fail and  echoes ISW 6PM assessment:

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s declared move against the Russian military leadership is "almost certainly an attempted coup", the former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor has told the BBC.

“This is serious for Putin. The Russians are taking this very seriously, and it sounds like they should.”

But Taylor, who was in Ukraine last month, says the Wagner boss is unlikely to succeed.

“The ministry of defence forces have the equipment, have the aircraft, have the tanks – they have the military equipment in numbers – to put down Prigozhin's forces," he says.

But the Russian infighting could potentially help Ukraine in its fight to defeat Russia's invasion, Taylor said.

"If the Russians are now worried about their chain of command, then the Russians that are supposed to be fighting the Ukrainians may be distracted and may even run."

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BBC:

Video claiming to show Yevgeny Prigozhin inside Russia's southern military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don is circulating online.

In the video Prigozhin says his troops will blockade the city and move on to Moscow unless defence chiefs Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov come to meet them.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify the footage, but we are looking into it and will bring you more when we have it.

Edited by kevinkin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, sburke said:

Whatever Prig says about not interfering with the war effort is BS, you can bet the MoD is busily stopping any war material going into Rostov to prevent Prig from possibly grabbing it.  The supply situation just got a lot worse for the Russian troops in Ukraine.

Thanks for reality check. I’m thinking maybe Putin gives me this, he goes back into Ukraine, but that’s a major increase in Wagner power isn’t it? Any agreement with Prig, not only does he dismiss his loyal people, he probably needs to keep funding and supplying Prig…

one of the officers in the above video changed his prior tune.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Prig's bodyguards are definitely on edge, looking for snipers (and drones?).  Yet Kuzovlev (?) pulls out his smartphone in the middle of the talk. Umm, homing device anyone?

LLF showing up just in time, like Gandalf.  Well played, Sir.  Good to see you back!  😀

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...