Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, FancyCat said: And yet these are the same people that thought they could drive a bunch of tanks into Kyiv and have the whole country surrender in 3 days. I think we should also find it absurd that Russian Liberation guys can routinely waltz into Belgorod, shoot the place up, stay for a few days, and then withdraw when they feel bored. I don't know why this guy is surprised. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, FancyCat said: SecretSqrl has been off base on his facts more than a few times, but FWIW this makes sense. And Prig has learned the hard way about logistics.... More: "dont keep looking at wagner at ROD. PER knows where every storage area is in rostov, i bet they are sending battalions to every one of them to gather all the ammo and weapons. Russia has no real combat formations there and so no way to stop a tank battalion. If you remember 2 weeks or so ago when they were showing off the nice new T90s???? that was in ROD i think. now unguarded except for conscripts." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ringo Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Would appear that Moscow now has some not so subtle reminders of the war at its' doorstep. Will be interesting to see if/how it might change internal support for the "SMO." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 I was away from the internet last night and absolutely missed it. So far, we know that Prig has been talking a lot but hasn't taken any substantial action. However, there is a curious detail in videos of RU generals speeches to Wagnerites - these appear to be interrogation room videos. As a result, there is rumor that these generals are under some sort of arrest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, billbindc said: It's after 7am in Moscow. If we don't have a statement by the time I wake up in 8 hours or so, I'm with you on this. Last known public appearance of a Putin, or Putin double, that I could find was June 22nd in front of the military academy graduates. If he had a health crisis (real one) then Prig had about 1 day max to get things in motion. If things were that advanced in planning I think there was a timetable to act vs. opportunistic move. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 what's that saying... The Chickens have come home to roost? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pablius Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 If there is a "pretorian guard" full of T-14 Armata it should make an appearance right about now... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, Grigb said: I was away from the internet last night and absolutely missed it. So far, we know that Prig has been talking a lot but hasn't taken any substantial action. However, there is a curious detail in videos of RU generals speeches to Wagnerites - these appear to be interrogation room videos. As a result, there is rumor that these generals are under some sort of arrest. It was noted by some that they looked rather nervous. After you catch up on Rostov and moves in Moscow, as well as reported firefights, it will be great to get your take on things. Long video of Prig's boys driving into Rostov: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hiait/longer_video_of_rostovondon_prigozhin_has_taken/ Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kluge Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Well, that escalated quickly. How hot is Russia gonna get? 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) A lot of elite troops in southern ukraine, VDV, Spetsnaz……do you think they might get pulled to fight Wagner? Edited June 24, 2023 by FancyCat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, sburke said: what's that saying... The Chickens have come home to roost? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 wait a minute.... Quote The National Anti-Terrorism Committee, which is part of the Federal Security Services, or FSB, has charged him with calling for an armed rebellion, which carries a penalty of up to 20 years in prison. The FSB urged Wagner's contract soldiers to arrest Prigozhin and refuse to follow his “criminal and treacherous orders.” It called his statements a “stab in the back to Russian troops” and said they amounted to fomenting an armed conflict in Russia. Really? The NATC? Pronounced NATCee.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMoria Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, kluge said: Well, that escalated quickly. How hot is Russia gonna get? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) BBC summary of ISW The US thinktank the Institute of War (ISW) believes Yevgeny Prigozhin is aiming to force a leadership change within the Kremlin's defence ministry - but suggests he is "unlikely to succeed" because the Kremlin appears opposed to his action. However any Wagner attempt to take control of Rostov-on-Don could have an impact on the war in Ukraine because Rostov is home to the Russian southern military district command, which has been key to Russia's war efforts. The southern military district’s 58th combined arms army is “currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command centre for the Russian joint group of forces in Ukraine as a whole”, it says. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023 So this is an attack on the MOD leadership not Putin directly in their view. But who would replace those senior officers? Interesting indeed. And what a great place to start - Rostov. Edited June 24, 2023 by kevinkin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Belarus... I could not find the RUMINT about Lukahshenko and his family fleeing Belarus and going to Turkey, but it should not be overlooked. Whether this is true information or not, Lukahshenko is in a bad spot right now. The only reason he put down the opposition against him was because of Russia's support. Regardless of how things turn out with the coup attempt in Russia, I think Kremlin support for him is now in doubt. Short term for sure, possibly long term. Depending on how unstable things are in Minsk, he might think now is a good time to leave the country in a private jet vs. the boot of a car like his old buddy Yanukovich. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, kevinkin said: BBC summary of ISW The US thinktank the Institute of War (ISW) believes Yevgeny Prigozhin is aiming to force a leadership change within the Kremlin's defence ministry - but suggests he is "unlikely to succeed" because the Kremlin appears opposed to his action. However any Wagner attempt to take control of Rostov-on-Don could have an impact on the war in Ukraine because Rostov is home to the Russian southern military district command, which has been key to Russia's war efforts. The southern military district’s 58th combined arms army is “currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command centre for the Russian joint group of forces in Ukraine as a whole”, it says. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023 Quote Note: Due to rapidly evolving events, the data cutoff for the portion of this update covering Prigozhin’s actions was 6:00pm ET, while the cutoff for the rest of this product was 3:00pm ET on June 23. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, but events will likely have developed further between the drafting and publication of this update. That was before it became clear Wagner took SMD headquarters and a great deal else without firing a shot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 25 minutes ago, Grigb said: I was away from the internet last night and absolutely missed it. So far, we know that Prig has been talking a lot but hasn't taken any substantial action. However, there is a curious detail in videos of RU generals speeches to Wagnerites - these appear to be interrogation room videos. As a result, there is rumor that these generals are under some sort of arrest. Chris_O points out that one of the generals has a SMG in his lap. So not under house arrest, but rather thinking it's better to be in an undisclosed location with a weapon than anywhere else. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: It was noted by some that they looked rather nervous. After you catch up on Rostov and moves in Moscow, as well as reported firefights, it will be great to get your take on things. Steve So far, everything appears to be a show rather than a true fights. I haven't seen a single reliable piece of information that describes something serious yet, literally. Also, everyone agrees that Prig does not have enough men directly under his command to do this. According to reports, the bulk of combat Wagnerites in the UKR are under external control. Few Wagnerites are under his direct control. There is a rumor (so far everything we have is rumors but I choose the most reliable onces) that Prig was in Petersburg. After filming those recording, he is believed to have driven away in an unknown destination with up to 50 guys at most. But the most essential thing to remember is that Prig is not a dumb. So, what is he doing? The most interesting rumor is that he is preparing propaganda cover for another difficult decision and act of goodwill. The Prig show gives the impression to public that RU cannot continue to defeat UKR until RU sort out things in the rear. It shifts responsibility for the decision away from the RU command and onto the shoulders of some disposable individual. Edited June 24, 2023 by Grigb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, dan/california said: That was before it became clear Wagner took SMD headquarters and a great deal else without firing a shot. Do you think events tonight will change ISW assessment of what Wagner is targeting? Anyway, I wonder if they bag a lot of important officers, or they ran away, or the might be supporting the coup? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 hour ago, kevinkin said: Anti-Kremlin tycoon urges Russians to back Wagner boss Anti-Kremlin figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky has urged Russians to support Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin who, as we've been reporting, has vowed to bring down Moscow's military leadership. Khodorkovsky, who was once Russia’s richest oligarch, said: "We need to help now, and then, if necessary, we will fight this one, too." After falling out with Vladimir Putin, he spent 10 years in a Russian prison and recently called for tougher sanctions against the Russian president. Khodorkovsky said it was important to back "even the devil" if he decided to take on the Kremlin. Does this guy live in Russia? 10 years in jail, love to meet his accountants. Well at least all these "good" russians start dropping all pretenses and openly support murderers, looters and rapists either side. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 22 minutes ago, kevinkin said: BBC summary of ISW The US thinktank the Institute of War (ISW) believes Yevgeny Prigozhin is aiming to force a leadership change within the Kremlin's defence ministry - but suggests he is "unlikely to succeed" because the Kremlin appears opposed to his action. However any Wagner attempt to take control of Rostov-on-Don could have an impact on the war in Ukraine because Rostov is home to the Russian southern military district command, which has been key to Russia's war efforts. The southern military district’s 58th combined arms army is “currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command centre for the Russian joint group of forces in Ukraine as a whole”, it says. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023 So this is an attack on the MOD leadership not Putin directly in their view. But who would replace those senior officers? Interesting indeed. And what a great place to start - Rostov. I hate disagreeing with ISW because there's rarely been a reason for it. But I don't see this as some sort of posture in front of Putin to gain his favor. This is NOT the way to do that. This is a full blown coup and so far it looks like he has the upper hand. The stakes are as high as they can be, so I don't think it is possible for this to end without significant violence if the regime doesn't crumble first. There is no going back for Prig. This Twitter guy seems to have good connections, supposedly some within Wagner: https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672423490815754240?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^screen-name%3AJimmySecUK|twcon^s1 Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 WTF is happening here? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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