How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Here's a thought: what if all of that is happening cause Putin snuffed it or is incapacitated? This would surely force Prig and everyone else to do sudden moves like that.

In other news, UA reportedly is advancing in Bakhmut!

 

[Cogust]

But where IS Putin? Why isn't he addressing Wagner, why is only some generals doing it?

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

Prig going down the path of Ernst Rohm 

 

But hopefully taking a whole lot of RU army with him

[DesertFox]

WTF! Me going out tonight with my wife having some Tapas with friends and coming back reading Prig is starting a civil war? 

Anyways, UAF seems to do the right thing and probe and push the lines. They have to throw out the orcs regardless.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1672358670611496960?s=20

 

[Seedorf81]

Well, hopefully someone tells mr Putin (or his successor) that this is the perfect moment to get every Russian soldier out of Ukraine ASAP.

The excuse that he can use to get out of this for him unwinnable war?

"All our soldiers, who, of course, nearly were victorious against the Ukranians, are now needed to defend the motherland. I order them to come back immediately".

 

How unbelievable this may sound, with Putin's KGB/FSB past, I even think it is possible this Wagner-uprising could be something else than it appears to be.

 

 

 

[cesmonkey]

Russia's Channel One
https://www.1tv.ru/news/issue/2023-06-24/01:25

Special Newscast at 01:25 today, June 24, 2023
 

I guess that newscast already started by now?
Someone want to translate?
https://www.1tv.ru/news/issue/2023-06-24/01:25#1

Edited June 23, 2023 by cesmonkey

[kevinkin]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/tass-riot-police-national-guard-scrambling-tighten-security-100346719

Tass says riot police and National Guard scrambling to tighten security at government buildings in Moscow.

Just a one sentence flash report. 

[Kinophile]

There's an automatic tendency to view everything that happens in this War through the lens of WW2.

I'm very unconvinced of that approach. 

This current cycle of events smacks more of the beginnings of the Chinese Civil War,  and perhaps internal Japanese military resistance to Political oversight. 

 

[Beleg85]

11 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Russia's Channel One
https://www.1tv.ru/news/issue/2023-06-24/01:25

Special Newscast at 01:25 today, June 24, 2023
 

I guess that newscast already started by now?
Someone want to translate?
https://www.1tv.ru/news/issue/2023-06-24/01:25#1

Wagnerite clip was staged, there was zero strikes against his camps, Wagner TG channel try to create provocation, Prigozhyn was officially filed to charges. Presenter woke up and come to the studio (it is 2-3 am in Moskow), so it is at least extraordinary.

Of course nothing unusual here...

But All in all it doesn't sound like Kremlin lost control even for a moment, or that anybody is in panick beyond normal security measures in such cases. Putin probably must **** in his pants for a while, and his suspiciometer raged probably high, but beyond that there is very little real action.

 

Even if till morning all will be over, note that it will have serious repercussions for Russian elite. Hundreds of them have photos, clips, briefly served with and know Wagnerites personally. Putin does not like purges, but he likely will be forced to have  at least some. More Erdogan style than Stalin, ofc., but nonetheless it is probably most important development of this show.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

Just now, Kinophile said:

There's an automatic tendency to view everything that happens in this War through the lens of WW2.

I'm very unconvinced of that approach. 

This current cycle of events smacks more of the beginnings of the Chinese Civil War,  and perhaps internal Japanese military resistance to Political oversight. 

 

1917, 1917, 1917, an army that couldn't take it anymore decided it would rather evict the Czar than keep fighting the Germans. Prig has already 3/4 said that the real enemies are in the Kremlin, now he needs to tell the army that if they join him they can go home. To repeat, it worked for Lenin.

[dan/california]

Any news at all, coming out of Rostov on Don? The logistics hub their is the key to everything.

 

[Jr Buck Private]

56 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Aleksieyev, and somebody probably very loudly drinking tea in the background, in the same room as Surovikin, both of which are in oddly depressed mood...both of them were close to Wagner, just saying.

Generally similar to Surovikin, he says former comradeships, that only president can appoint military leaders, that Wagner should not start a coup or take this kind of risk. And openly warns about civil war...

I have strong failed Turkey coup vibes about this, frankly.

Valkyrie for me.   I just hope it lasts more than a few days.   It's hard to measure what the Russian civilian vibe will be.   All I know is if everything was going well in Ukraine then this would never have happened.   You have to give Ukraine the nod for going after all the logistics because this Wagner tiff all started because of an ammo shortage.

[MSBoxer]

How the hell am I now rooting for PRIG in any way, shape or form?????  What multiverse have I entered?

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Capt...any thoughts on what the end of Wagner will mean for Russian military abilities? 

Nothing good.  Wagner is pretty big and wide scope so that will mean resources diverted to get this back under control.  Priority will be Russia but Wagner is all over the MENA and can quickly turn into a highly hooked up terror organization - we might start seeming Russian industry/commercial and diplomatic interest having sudden accidents.

In Russia, my guess is that Wagner will need to bring elements of the RA onto their side for this thing to go anywhere.  Unless, gawd help us, Wagner has managed to get its hands on WMDs of some sort.  High end, disruption gets so big the RA in Ukraine collapses strategically to try and contain this.  Middle end, significant disruption, that has operational effects which could accelerate the UA timetable.  Low end, this things get tied off quickly and tightly.  Prig winds up taking a dirt nap, maybe after a show trial and Putin/MoD stays really nervous with more smoking accidents as I already mentioned.

Edited June 23, 2023 by The_Capt

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

now he needs to tell the army that if they join him they can go home. 

Yep, will be the same here. Whoever controls the army will control russia. Interesting hours ahead to watch for us.

 

 

[cesmonkey]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Any news at all, coming out of Rostov on Don? The logistics hub their is the key to everything.

 

https://t.me/rusbrief_moscow/11061

Quote

️The movement of cars is blocked on the highway M-4 "Don" in the direction of Aksai at the exit from Rostov-on-Don, - TASS

 

[Battlefront.com]

Sheesh... can't a guy step away from the computer for a bit without a Russian coup happening?

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, preliminary and most plausible explanation: Prig knew he was to be arrested soon, so tried to play va banque and use his (real or imagined) conenctions to save skin.

I think this is likely, though I think it goes a bit deeper and further back.

Prig has obviously been maneuvering for power and influence for some time now, but especially since this war started.  Bakhmut was supposed to cement his position as a rival player for the MoD.  As we all know, it did not go well.  In addition to Ukraine putting up a massive fight that Wagner could not sustain, the MoD (most likely) played games with various support services that Wagner needed to succeed.  So the fight between the two has been in the works.

Skipping over various acts of a multistage drama, Wagner withdrew from Bakhmut with the intention of... not quite sure.  But it seems whatever Prig wanted he wasn't going to get easily.  And so we have seen lots of videos of him ranting and raving lately.

I am quite confident that if Prig had not done this, and instead gone back to being a useful tool for Russia's foreign policy goals, I think things would have gone OK.  He'd have been put in his place and, once again, fulfilling a purpose.  The future for a Russian power player is always one window or sip of tea away from "early retirement", so I'm not saying he'd be permanently home free.  Just that the MoD would welcome him gone without further fuss.

For whatever reason this is not what Prig chose to do.  Does he really think he can punch above his weight?  Does he think there's a lot more support for him than there probably is?  Did something happen to convince him that a "heart attack" was scheduled for him?  Whatever the case, he kept going down the road of confrontation.

The law forcing Wagnerites to sign MoD contracts was (SO VERY) obviously intended to take Prig's power away from him.  Prig without 10s of thousands of armed thugs under his control isn't a threat.  Even with those thugs it probably isn't a threat to the regime, though (as we are seeing now) it is a huge threat to the perception of the regime's stability.  This is not in Putin's interests ONE BIT.  Prig might overestimate his abilities, but he would not be wrong to think he has some leverage.  Which is why the MoD tried to take it away.

It seems pretty clear that Prig has been planning on SOME sort of action to prevent his house of cards collapsing.  It's way too murky to see what's going on now, but it seems it happened fairly fast and without the FSB knowing or at least being in a position to head this off.  Whether there really was a preemptive attack on his training base or not is kinda irrelevant as Prig had already made a decision that there would be an armed standoff (minimum) or fight.

What happens now is we watch things unfold and eat lots of popcorn while doing so!

If he's moving his forces down to Rostov, this is smart.  Marching on Moscow is a much longer trek (~800km vs 150km as the crow flies) and offers security forces way to much time/space to react to his moves.  A move like that would be squashed long before getting to Moscow.  Moving down to Rostov, on the other hand, is logistically realistic and less likely to create a major problem along the way.  Prig has seen what very small bands of Russian Liberation forces have done in Belgorod, a much more militarized zone than Rostov.  He should expect little resistance going south.

 

This could be why Prig is going to Rostov...

Almost all Russian war material and support for the southern front in Ukraine goes through Rostov.  If he takes over the rail infrastructure in Rostov and sets up an all around defense with even a few thousand men, the MoD is going to be in a really tough spot.  If Prig shuts off rail transport to Ukraine... Russia is hosed in Ukraine.  Even a few days of disruption could be fatal.  Yet the MoD and FSB would take quite a while to assemble a force to neutralize Wagner.  And for sure if they start attacking Prig will pull the plug.  Worse, in the time it took the MoD/FSB to get into place Prig could have his boys rig up so much rail infrastructure to go BOOM that it could take weeks to get meaningful rail traffic going again even after killing every last Wagnerite which, itself, could take weeks or months (Russians aren't known for rapid progress, are they?).

 

Bottom line... taking Moscow is a fantasy, taking Rostov is realistic.  If Prig is looking for leverage a failed march on Moscow offers none, but a successful seizure of rail infrastructure in Rostov gives him a huge amount of power.  What he would do with that is anybody's guess, but does it really matter to us?  For the war, no, but for Russia's future it could.

Imagine Prig holding Rostov to buy time to get MoD units to defect.  I successful standoff with the MoD could produce such an effect.  We all know that the MoD is riddled with factions and many of them either think they can fight the war better if they were in charge or would seek to get out if they could.

I sure don't know if this is what Prig is up to, but from where I sit it looks like a far better move than many of the alternatives.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

This channel says:
https://t.me/sotaproject/61468
 

Quote

️Prigogine's new statement:

"Wagner" enters Rostov.

The conscripts refused to carry out the order to fight the mercenaries.

"We go on, we go to the end."

I assume that's the statement in this audio file? Anyone care to translate?
https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1291

[Beleg85]

Prig Tg channel annoucned audio message:

Cannot copypaste it here, unfortunatelly.

Hmmm he was reportedly today in Petersburg in the morning with his bodyguards, but I cannot assess validity of that info.

This is almost certainly true, in turn...

 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[DesertFox]

Memes are inevitable in this situation, I guess.

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672379443682082816?s=20

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Prig is looking for leverage a failed march on Moscow offers none, but a successful seizure of rail infrastructure in Rostov gives him a huge amount of power.  What he would do with that is anybody's guess, but does it really matter to us?

I would say, “Yes”.  This was all the discussion about a theory of Russian defeat…and right now it looks like there isn’t one.  If Russia goes into complete free fall it could get very crazy very fast.  We have never had a nuclear power have a full scale civil war, so let’s hope it does not come to it as we are basically off the map.

Key thing to watch out for is the direction of the wind in the RA.  If they start peeling off in support of Wagner in significant numbers the sh#tshow is likely on.  If it stays down to “just” Wagner’s reported 25k troops in Russia plus whatever they have in other countries it might be slower burning…maybe.

[cesmonkey]

Dmitri translated it:

 

Edited June 23, 2023 by cesmonkey

[akd]

 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

I would say, “Yes”.  This was all the discussion about a theory of Russian defeat…and right now it looks like there isn’t one.  If Russia goes into complete free fall it could get very crazy very fast.  We have never had a nuclear power have a full scale civil war, so let’s hope it does not come to it as we are basically off the map.

Key thing to watch out for is the direction of the wind in the RA.  If they start peeling off in support of Wagner in significant numbers the sh#tshow is likely on.  If it stays down to “just” Wagner’s reported 25k troops in Russia plus whatever they have in other countries it might be slower burning…maybe.

Putin's head on pike, and the most pitiful plea in the history of mankind. from the new Russian Government, for help from NATO. Only half joking. 

We should tell them that will cost them the nukes, all of them.

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Nothing good.  Wagner is pretty big and wide scope so that will mean resources diverted to get this back under control.  Priority will be Russia but Wagner is all over the MENA and can quickly turn into a highly hooked up terror organization - we might start seeming Russian industry/commercial and diplomatic interest having sudden accidents.

This is going to have a major impact on the war for sure.  First, Prig's just removed a few tens of thousands of (mostly) experienced fighters off Russia's roster.  That's no trivial chunk of Russia's infantry force. 

Second, Russia is going to have to devote at least 2x whatever amount of Wagnerites throw in with Prig.  Let's say 10,000 Wagnerites = 20,000 MoD/Rosgvardiya troops.  Wagner's guys will likely chew them to pieces.  So there will likely need to be an investment of more significant forces, including withdrawing Spetsnaz from the frontlines.  That's a double hit to Russia's military capacity.

Third, Russia sucks at war and likely sucks even worse at improvised civil war.  Their inability to defend Belgorod successfully shows how bad Russia at responding to something like what Wagner might be pulling.  Which means the MoD will need even MORE forces.

Fourth, let's not forget what happens when a coup is unfolding... everybody starts wondering about each other's loyalty.  There are going to be preemptive arrests by FSB that will likely further complicate Russia's counter moves against Prig.

Fifth, if Prig opts to disrupt supplies through Rostov then we could see a frontwide collapse because of all of this.

NOTE that all of this is without Prig winning over a single  MoD unit to his cause.  If that should happen, then it gets even more interesting.

Steve