How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

"Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."

source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20

[kevinkin]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, I think one of the big lessons we've seen in this war so far is that the West is completely unprepared for this sort of war and the sorts of problems encountered are not easily waived away.

I understand and agree with everything you said in the post. But if this is a war for western survival, we can't just strive for Bs and Cs. We have to demand As and Bs. Is it a pipe dream to expect better? NATO is confronting the piss poor Russians. If NATO gave just a bit of air power all the bureaucratic SNAFUs would not matter. But because the west is not, we have to excel elsewhere - like the supply chain. Pages back, I voiced concern on how dispersed Ukrainian support has been. The current model just confuses things. There is a term use in warfare called synchronization. Right now the west is playing out of tune. Not like grade schoolers, but not like the NY Philharmonic either. 

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, I think one of the big lessons we've seen in this war so far is that the West is completely unprepared for this sort of war and the sorts of problems encountered are not easily waived away.  In fact, it could be that there's been more success at working around these problems than we're giving the West credit for.  It's still way, way, way more of a mess than it should be, however that doesn't mean it's shown no improvement.

Just wait until China crosses the strait, that’ll give new meaning to unprepared in terms of a domestic economy sense!

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't want to get off topic, but I will say this is an increasingly evident problem in the US to anybody who is looking around.  It was first flagged 20 years ago with the looming retirement bubble of airline pilots, long haul truckers, primary care doctors, nurses, and other "hands on" technical people with no signs of people interested in replacing them.  The truck repair facility I spoke about used to have 8 mechanics on a Saturday shift.  A few months they closed down on Saturdays because they could only regularly get 2 to show up.  These jobs pay BIG money for the area.

I think this is very relevant for many things that touch on the military sphere. For example, what happens when a country cant run its infrastructure, and things start collapsing in slow motion (RSA) or prevent its ports from blowing up (Lebanon). I think we’ll see more of this in the future, which will drive more migration and more conflict. Same with water (ie that big african dam), same with food, etc. One amazing advantage the US has is we can suck up as many talented, hard working people from other countries as we feel like letting in- this is one of our many superpowers. However, we’re gonna automate as much away as possible first.

[Ithikial_AU]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, I think one of the big lessons we've seen in this war so far is that the West is completely unprepared for this sort of war and the sorts of problems encountered are not easily waived away.  In fact, it could be that there's been more success at working around these problems than we're giving the West credit for.  It's still way, way, way more of a mess than it should be, however that doesn't mean it's shown no improvement.  It's very difficult to measure because there are so many moving parts in so many governments that it's really difficult to sort out.  And that, by itself, is a big problem.

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I understand and agree with everything you said in the post. But if this is a war for western survival, we can't just strive for Bs and Cs. We have to demand As and Bs. Is it a pipe dream to expect better? NATO is confronting the piss poor Russians.

I mentioned about 1,500 pages ago in this thread about whether the West has strong enough supply chains to maintain a long drawn out conflict on a wide frontage 1,000 kms(+). I still hold those concerns with what I'm seeing in Ukraine. Even with all that Western kit that has been donated, the Ukrainian offensive appears to be only making marginal gains here and there. Happy to be proven wrong in the coming days but still appears to be a stalemate.

The West probably still expects modern wars to be short sharp affairs or against an opponent that is completely outclassed by all our toys. This war has probably thrown that perception out of the window. If the West has to go into direct conflict for a prolonged period with an adversary that probably won't back down after a defeat or two then it gets interesting. I admire the massive reforms that economies and the people had to endure in the 1940's. Switching over civilian factories to producing goods for the war effort effectively overnight. Needing to do that again in the 2020's I wonder what the result would be? "What do you mean I can't have my annual update to my iPhone?"

Hopefully there are some smart cookies trying to work out how to adapt to taking part in a wide scale prolonged conflict if the need arises.

@kevinkin - Aiming for perfection in equipment(?) is one thing but that alone won't win wars. I'd rather have a fully equipped and working battalion of Shermans than a comparative handful of Panthers with most back in the repair depot. Even today, an M1 Abrams can't be everywhere if you need to maintain a front the size of a country/continent. I'd imagine they also aren't quick to manufacture if the need arises/replace losses. The US Army wasn't perfect heading to war in 1941 but it got the job done in less than four years because it worked out what it needed and what was realistic to support overseas. It got the logistics chains more or less right.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

As a Wargamer, one of the greatest joy we have is using various tools (even if they are amateur and used for entertainment purposes) to check if our crazy ideas are feasible. Here, we have a set of tools called CMO. I have created a few scenarios in the editor. Overall, I agree with your perspective that using an F-16 fighter jet to attack a low-flying Ka-52 helicopter within Russian-controlled territory is not an efficient approach.

 

In the scenario, I assumed that Ukraine is using the F-16A MLU donated by the Netherlands, while the Russian military has a Ka-52 helicopter hovering at a low altitude 10 kilometers behind their first defensive line. The F-16's radar can generally detect the Ka-52 at a range of 16nm. If the F-16 is at high altitude, there is only one opportunity for an attack because the Ka-52 will quickly enter the radar's blind zone. If the F-16 decides to dive into low altitude or initiates the attack from low altitude, it must consider the threat from short-range air defenses. However, considering the threat posed by the Russian S-300 system, a low-level penetration might be a more viable option.

 

Subsequently, I added more elements to the scenario, including A-50 and a full suite of short-range and long-range SAM systems for the Russian. The Ukrainian F-16 takes off near Vinnytsia, flies at high altitude over Zaporizhzhia, transitions to low altitude, and turns southeast towards Orikhiv. This brings an additional issue: after flying over 200 nm, the low-flying F-16 only has around 20 minutes of fuel remaining before Bingo Fuel, meaning it can only perform one attack before disengaging.

 

Similar to before, the F-16's radar detects the Ka-52 at 16 nm, but both aircraft are in low altitude, significantly reducing the effective range of the AIM-120B missile due to air resistance (and yes, max range =/= effective range). The F-16 must close in to approximately 7 nm for the Ka-52 to be within the missile's Dynamic Launch Zone (DLZ). However, before reaching this distance, the F-16 pilot receives multiple SAM radar warning alerts.

 

In summary, after conducting a single AMRAAM attack, the F-16 must turn and disengage. The success rate is not high, with a small probability of the F-16 being shot down by SAMs, and the chance of the AIM-120B hitting the Ka-52 at the extreme edge of its effective range is also low. According to the PoH calculation formula in CMO, this probability is only 29%.

 

Please note that this simulation only considers the Russian ground-based SAM systems, and if a group of Su-35s are added to provide CAP, the F-16's chances of a successful attack would be extremely low.

 

The conclusion drawn from this simulation is that the Ukrainian F-16 should focus on its main tasks, such as gaining air superiority and conducting SEAD, plus attacking Russian airfields and ground support. The mission of hunting down the airborne Ka-52 within Russian-controlled territory should be assigned to other weapons and equipment.

I used CMO last night and came to the same conclusion. I never got around to posting since this thread moves at light speed. Thanks for posting in detail. I think this is a finding that we just have place in the back of our minds for now. Send me PM, I would enjoy looking at your CMO sandbox. There are a lot factors in play. But they are easy to adjust with that software. BTW, did you give the Ka-62 ground targets to engage? 

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, Ithikial_AU said:

It got the logistics chains more or less right.

Nice to see you back. Maybe I missed some of your posts. 

The US nationalized and thereby concentrated their supply chain. Namely, the railroads and shipping. Shipping was critical in the Pacific early after Pearl Harbor. The US also sent it's blood and treasure to foreign lands to wage global warfare. So the US supply chain had a vested interest in getting it right 24/7. No time off, no holidays, women in factories etc.. And the US had it good. The US effort was focused and not so dependent on a spider web of interdependencies. In house manufacturing. 

In this war, the US has not committed blood and treasure and the supply chain is full of interdependencies. Platitudes "a war to save ... " fill in the blank are just going result is stagnation. The west has to do something dramatic. The UA will have the ability to break the RA lines tactically, but what then? I remain hopeful that the "western" brigades can exploit those painful gains. But at some point their intended direction will narrow because of losses and allow the the RA to concentrate on and stop it. The west has to understand that at current level of support the territory of Ukraine might be regained, but leaving the nation a no mans land of constant warfare and drain on the west's economy. My word, will this become a fight over those grain fields. Or was that the point anyway.  

[sburke]

Russia has been using the Chinese yuan to get around sweeping Western sanctions — but this side door may be closing (yahoo.com)

[panzermartin]

Not sure about downed Ka 52s but this one definitely got hit by something but still goes on flying: (apologies if this has been posted before) 

 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Not sure about downed Ka 52s but this one definitely got hit by something but still goes on flying: (apologies if this has been posted before) 

 

It limped back to base. At first RU claimed it was hit by friendly drop tank but later admitted it was work of enemy AA.

[Grigb]

4 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

The Ukrainian F-16 takes off near Vinnytsia, flies at high altitude over Zaporizhzhia, transitions to low altitude, and turns southeast towards Orikhiv. This brings an additional issue: after flying over 200 nm, the low-flying F-16 only has around 20 minutes of fuel remaining before Bingo Fuel, meaning it can only perform one attack before disengaging.

Nice analysis! However, I'd want to make the following change to the scenario. The Soviet Air Force was known to use a Jump airfield near the front lines. It is little more than a runaway strip (perhaps a highway) with the basic necessities for maintenance and supply (maybe simply a refueler and starter).

As a result, the plane takes off from the main base and heads to Jump airfield. He remains there till the time comes. After the mission to prevent any retaliation, the aircraft just returns to the main base. I believe the UKR Air Force is doing the same.

[poesel]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If this drone could talk it would likely say "I Regret I Have One Life to Give to My Country" .  Bless you drone, and all the lives you just saved with your selfless act of bravery!

Or it could say: 'I hope I taught my operator to fly out of the danger zone ASAP after dropping a bomb on a pile of explosives from low altitude....'

[Grigb]

A brief update on the Kremina-Svatove Direction. On RU channels, I see virtually nothing. The developers of the UKR DeepState Map stated that no changes in situation except Ru fail at Serebryanka woodland (a large forest south-west of Kreminna), which is a good thing.

 Just in case full post(direct quote from their ENG channel)

Quote

Situation on the frontlines as of the end of the day on June 19th, 2023

• On the Belarusian, Siverskyi and Bilhorod directions — no changes.
• On the Svatove direction — no changes. The enemy's attempts to improve their tactical position in the Serebryansk forest ended unsuccessfully.
• On the Bakhmut direction — fighting continues in the west and north-west of Klishchiivka : Near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, our forces were successful (https://t.me/DeepStateEN/1913).
• On the Avdiivka direction — the katsap is trying to break through the defense between Kamianka and Kruta Balka, having a colossal advantage in artillery and tanks. A similar situation is happening east of Pobeda; with artillery advantage, the enemy destroys positions to such an extent that holding them becomes almost impossible.
• On the Berdyansk direction — fighting continues in the Levadne-Novodanylivka area.
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction — officially, Piatykhatky has been liberated (https://t.me/DeepStateEN/1911). There was an enemy attempt to retake the village, but it completely failed, contrary to their claims on Telegram. Fighting continues south of Orikhiv, and despite the katsaps claiming success towards Novodanylivka, this doesn't correspond to reality.
• On the Tavria [Kherson] direction — no changes.

Analytical note. Overall, it is noticeable that the enemy is trying to regain/keep the initiative. In some places, they succeed, while elsewhere katsaps face a total fiasco, yet spin it as a media victory, so we urge not to bring enemy propaganda into our community.

We would like to acknowledge the actions of "Bravo Team" from the Separate Reconnaissance Battalion in the battle for Piatykhatky.

Our team strives to accurately cover all events and the involvement of various units in achieving success. Due to media prominence, some units will always be more in the limelight than others.
 

So far, we may conclude that RU attempted something that has so far resulted in nothing. But definitely the timing was a way off due to apparent unpreparedness of RU propagandists.

[Grigb]

Reminder about what kind of information RU troops are given on an daily basis.

Quote

NATO is just another financial pyramid scheme aimed against Russia.

The Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's comment regarding "empty NATO warehouses" does not imply that they are devoid of weapons. Furthermore, this does not imply that NATO will not supply these weapons to Ukraine. This comment is not directed towards Russia.

Jen's public speech is a standard public relations maneuver for the world's most expensive [and most profitable] business enterprise - the NATO alliance. The initiative functions as a global vacuum cleaner, sucking money from vassals ["participating countries"] and funneling it into the US military—industrial complex. Actually, the US military-industrial complex is a worldwide commercial enterprise, with money flowing into the clans who control this sector.

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Grigb

[Taranis]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

A brief update on the Kremina-Svatove Direction. On RU channels, I see virtually nothing. The developers of the UKR DeepState Map stated that no changes in situation except Ru fail at Serebryanka woodland (a large forest south-west of Kreminna), which is a good thing.

 Just in case full post(direct quote from their ENG channel)

So far, we may conclude that RU attempted something that has so far resulted in nothing. But definitely the timing was a way off due to apparent unpreparedness of RU propagandists.

This could also be a Russian attempt to prevent the deployment of Ukrainian reserves (the Ukrainians keeping an eye on what might happen in the area before throwing reserves to the south), while the Russians redeploy units to the south (partially from Kherson) and possibly garrison their 2nd line of defence.

A diversion to buy time to strengthen without trying to stop the Ukrainian offensive

[Seedorf81]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't want to get off topic, but I will say this is an increasingly evident problem in the US to anybody who is looking around.  It was first flagged 20 years ago with the looming retirement bubble of airline pilots, long haul truckers, primary care doctors, nurses, and other "hands on" technical people with no signs of people interested in replacing them.  The truck repair facility I spoke about used to have 8 mechanics on a Saturday shift.  A few months they closed down on Saturdays because they could only regularly get 2 to show up.  These jobs pay BIG money for the area. 

I've told many people over the last few years that if I had to do my career all over again I would have gone into HVAC, welding, electrical, or some other critical trade that AI won't ever get rid of. Good paying job for life wherever you choose to call home.  Something to be said about that.

Steve

P.S.  I am in contact with friends in enough countries to know this is a serious problem pretty much everywhere.

According to tv-program I (partially) saw this week, China has the same problem, but even more so because of "societal pressure for status". Which means that in China being an ordinary labourer is considered even more honourless than in Western countries.

China seems to get a whole lot of troubled near-future issues: population, real-estate bubble, climate, food/harvest-troubles and this. History teaches us that some leadership-guys will turn to war if the **** threatens to really hit the domestic fan (Movie - Wag the dog -, 1997), which is not good news for Taiwan.

That Blinken-visit seems to me like a reasonable good move to warn China again not to do that.

 

 

[Grigb]

Sober assestments of Pytrikhatka battle are now emerging (These are Ru Nats soldiers).

First

Quote

Regarding the ongoing battles, I do not have any sentiments of victory. It's really early. I assess the situation soberly. It is on edge. A lot is now on the shoulders of a regular Russian soldier. We are keeping a close eye on the unfolding battle in Zaporozhye and the Kherson regions...

Second

Quote

The situation is not as rosy in the Zaporozhye direction (Pyatikhatki) as military reporters and their supporters describe.

 

[Bulletpoint]

Yesterday, BBC published a report from the "recently regained village of Blahodatne"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65921377

As far as I can see, that village is more than 7 km inside the frontline as still reported by Deepstate. Or is it a different village with the same name? The article says it's a village in southern Donetsk.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Grigb]

Comedy break

Quote

Europe's frayed umbrella - the project of a united European air defense is still stalling.

SMO has clearly demonstrated to the Western military-industrial complex that confronting a technologically advanced power is fundamentally different from all kinds of "anti-terrorist operations" that the same NATO bloc has been engaged in over the past decades – particularly in the field of air defense. Russia's effective employment of aircraft in combination with high-precision weapon attacks prompted Europe to reconsider, as it did during the Cold War, the creation of a shared air defense system.

 

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yesterday, BBC published a report from the "recently regained village of Blahodatne"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65921377

As far as I can see, that village is more than 7 km inside the frontline as still reported by Deepstate. Or is it a different village with the same name? The article says it's a village in southern Donetsk.

Yes, it is a different village. The liberated one is just north of Makarivka (to the West of this one).

 

[Grigb]

RU are still fending off UKR attacks at Pytikhatka. 

[UPDATE] Just in case - I mean, some RU military reporters still say that the RU controls Pyatikhatka and repels UKR assaults (they must have forgotten to read their new directives).

Edited June 20, 2023 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Interesting RU opinion regarding losses of Mobiks drafted at fall 2022.

Out of 10 mobiks hit

• 1 would be killed.
• 1 would be discharged
• 3 would take a long time to recover
• 5-6 would return in two weeks to a month.

As a result, RU units have shortfalls in personnel since half of the soldiers hit are lost either permanently or for an extended period of time. As a result, units fighting from October 2022 are substantially smaller now - battalions are companies, and companies are platoons. The AFU, on the other hand, is continually replenishing unit losses through training and reserve units.

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

As a result, the plane takes off from the main base and heads to Jump airfield. He remains there till the time comes. After the mission to prevent any retaliation, the aircraft just returns to the main base. I believe the UKR Air Force is doing the same.

That is not necessarily going to be possible with F-16, which notoriously needs a well-prepared runway. On the other hand, UKR Air Force could use F-16 to relieve some of its MiG 29 of their current duties and use them for helicopter hunting from forward bases. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

The mission of hunting down the airborne Ka-52 within Russian-controlled territory should be assigned to other weapons and equipment.

Have you managed to find any weapons which would work for this? I do not think there is any mobile SHORAD in the Nato inventory which could reach out to 10 KM. US ones are based on Stinger, so no better than MANPADS in the range department.

[Grigb]

While reading RU BS I realized something - Looks like I do not see RU VKS work. Is it due of my prejudice, or are they truly missing?

[DesertFox]

AFAIK UKR only has 5 out of 35 new brigades in the fight. We are not there yet.