paxromana Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Astrophel said: Don't know why the BBC promote such a massive underestimate of Russian casualties. Perhaps they worry about their reporters in Russia being arrested. They're doing for KIAs what Oryx does for dead vehicles. Counting only confirmed kills ... and they do point out the difficulties invlved AND give UKR, UK and RU figures for comparison. Pretty balanced all in all. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Astrophel said: Don't know why the BBC promote such a massive underestimate of Russian casualties. Perhaps they worry about their reporters in Russia being arrested. It isn't an estimate but a count of only 100% verified deaths. As they explicitly state, it is the "bare minimum for Russia's total losses". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 (edited) Edited June 16, 2023 by DesertFox 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelRain Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 on a side note: Germany alocated funds for 3 Israeli made Arrow missile defense systems and 6 IRIS-T SLM systems. The first Arrow system should be ready by 2025. https://www.timesofisrael.com/germany-okays-4-3-billion-purchase-of-israels-arrow-3-anti-missile-system/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Russian telegram channels report a small Ukrainian push on the western portion of the Zaporizhzhia front:https://t.me/vrogov/10338 Quote About an hour and a half ago, the Nazis switched to active offensive operations on the Vasilyevsky sector of the front. About two dozen units of armored vehicles (tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles M113, armored combat vehicles) and attack aircraft from the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the amount of up to two companies were thrown into the attack. They go on the offensive in the adjacent areas of Lobkovoe-Zherebyanka and Stepovoye-Pyatikhatki. Let me remind you that Lobkovoe was occupied by the enemy during the first wave of the offensive. It is located in a lowland and is actually a gray area, because is under full fire control of the RF Armed Forces. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrophel Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 35 minutes ago, paxromana said: They're doing for KIAs what Oryx does for dead vehicles. Counting only confirmed kills ... and they do point out the difficulties invlved AND give UKR, UK and RU figures for comparison. Pretty balanced all in all. "The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence estimates there are more than 200,000 Russian casualties - but this also includes the wounded." - according to the BBC today. While according to the Ukrainian MOD the figure today is 218000 liquidated. I think we can agree the BBC number is the low number. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxromana Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Astrophel said: "The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence estimates there are more than 200,000 Russian casualties - but this also includes the wounded." - according to the BBC today. While according to the Ukrainian MOD the figure today is 218000 liquidated. I think we can agree the BBC number is the low number. Because, like Oryx, they cite only confirmed deaths rather than estimates. As I said. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 On this episode of the Russia Contingency, Mike is joined by Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program, and Franz Stefan-Gady, founder and chief executive officer of Gady Consulting. https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/28970/ukraines-offensive-first-impressions/ my summary notes: Careful optimism but lots of unknowns Ukrainians seem to be managing well with green formations in an environment where even Western professionals would likely struggle progress within the realm of expectations nobody in the analyst community was expecting this to look like Harkiv The question is not "have the Ukrainians reached a certain point" but where they were planning to be at this point in time Mike guesses it is unlikely Ukrainians are where they hoped to be at this point but also that actually doesn't tell us much. how are the relative attrition and commitment of forces? How much Ukraine has ammo available and for how long time? Ukraine could choose to reinforce one of the current attacks or open a new one western axis is having difficulties but the eastern axis is advancing well and on a wide front the main effort is still to show itself. "we know it when we see it" Ukraine seems to be trying to get Russia to commit reserves This is still unclear We are in the attritional phase of this operation Transition to maneuver phase is often sudden Ukraine approaching the Russian mainline expectedly everything takes time when advancing on fortified positions. Russia likely aiming to make this approach attritional as possible but not to stop Ukrainians Russia likely trying to make the attack culminate at the mainline or shortly after it Early Russian hard counterattacks are surprisingly hard (and unsuccessful) Experienced Ukrainian units are making gains at this moment. New formations are still mostly not committed Ukraine is also mixing the new formations with its more experienced forces Ukrainian Positive indicators Ukraine seems to be capable of hitting the depth of the Russian rear effectively can they isolate the battlefield? Ukraine seems to be winning the counter-battery war Ukraine seems to be learning and adapting already Night fighting capacity paying off Ukrainian Challenges Some Russian units fight stubbornly even when these same formations have disintegrated in the past 42nd mot.rifle div. and the two Spetsnaz brigades seem to have held on the western axis Doing combined arms breaches without air superiority and NATO level of enablers and without total fires dominance. Russian rotatory aviation Mines A possible shortage of short-range air defense on the Ukraine side although rotatory aviation operations would be expected in any case 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Hapless said: We're in macro-masking/tactical deficit country again! Like in WW1, this war has revealed (or confirmed, or reiterated, take your pick) that the factors influencing success in base tactical interactions did not align with the pre-war expectations of the belligerents. So officers have been ordering units around with an inaccurate concept of what they're capable of achieving in the prevailing conditions. This happens all the time, the tricky part is figuring out what has changed and whether those changes are going to be important or applicable in the future... something people from a wide array of boxes typing in a wargame forum might be able to process better than a collection of people all sitting in the same military career box. Or we can at least be wrong in original and unexpected ways! I tell my students exactly this - what has really changed and what is an anomaly? That is the key question of this war. I definitely have seen the power of diverse collective analysis on this forum. In many ways the analysis here has been ahead of the professional military one, even though we have access to less information (but probably not as “less” as people think). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 I'm wondering if the main counteroffensive was ready to go, but then it was postponed at the last possible moment when the dam was blown up. Reason being that this will open up new attack directions when the reservoir dries out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 23 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: I'm wondering if the main counteroffensive was ready to go, but then it was postponed at the last possible moment when the dam was blown up. Reason being that this will open up new attack directions when the reservoir dries out. I see Ukrainian harassment operations likely here. Hard to see any main attack happening over the "river" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Astrophel said: "The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence estimates there are more than 200,000 Russian casualties - but this also includes the wounded." - according to the BBC today. While according to the Ukrainian MOD the figure today is 218000 liquidated. I think we can agree the BBC number is the low number. Texeira papers provide very detailed number up to something like late march if I remember correctly, when meatgrinder in Bakhmut was already working. Judging by our discussion of casualties of both sides then, Ukrainian communicates naturally grossly overestimate killed muscovites. BBC is probably closer to truth, however including wounded, Wagners etc. numbers are probably much higher now than 200k. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I see Ukrainian harassment operations likely here. Hard to see any main attack happening over the "river" Maybe it would be worth attacking across the now much smaller river if it means being able to bypass all those defensive positions north of Tokmak? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearstronaut Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 9 hours ago, dan/california said: The Pentagon threw a LOT of money at IED solutions while we were in Iraq. I wouldn't say the didn't get anything out of it, but they were distinctly short of miracles. That is why we have an approximate infinity of MRAPS to give the Ukrainians. So many MRAPs that my alma mater's police department has one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 It seems that the snooping around of Russian ships near underwater cables and pipelines did not go unnoticed in the offices of the higher-ups. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 (edited) <Gripen has entered the chat> So at the moment we have confirmed training of UA pilots on F-16s and Gripens, official talks with Australia about F-18s and whatever training France and the UK are providing. It seems that Ukrainian Air Force inventory is going to be as diversified as their tank fleet... Edited June 16, 2023 by Huba 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Huba said: <Gripen has entered the chat> So at the moment we have confirmed training of UA pilots on F-16s and Gripens, official talks with Australia about F-18s and whatever training France and the UK are providing. It seems that Ukrainian Air Force inventory is going to be as diversified as their tank fleet... Nothing like starting the Friday morning with some great news, thanks Huba! Edited June 16, 2023 by Harmon Rabb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 I agree 100% with him 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 (edited) Paul Massaro helping people keep track of all the bills related to this war. Feel free to look them up using this resource Congress.gov Edited June 16, 2023 by Harmon Rabb 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Another Russian telegram update:https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7968 Quote UKRAINE IS TRYING TO OPEN A "PONTON FRONT" ON THE DNIPER. Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to cross to our side of the Dnieper. They decided to build a pontoon crossing, but they immediately fell under our artillery, and, as I understand it, they temporarily abandoned their plans. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Britons beware... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocketman Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Huba said: <Gripen has entered the chat> So at the moment we have confirmed training of UA pilots on F-16s and Gripens, official talks with Australia about F-18s and whatever training France and the UK are providing. It seems that Ukrainian Air Force inventory is going to be as diversified as their tank fleet... This is good news, however, there are no statements in the document that would indicate that Sweden is any closer to giving Gripen to Ukraine than before. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artkin Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 25 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Britons beware... How butthurt can these guys be over Churchill's refusal to prematurely open up a a second front in 1941? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Quote https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/defense-aerospace-report/id1228868129?i=1000617263752 I freely admit this podcast is sponsored by Lockhead Martin and friends, but the people on it have decades of of experience in and around the Pentagon. There is a significant discussion of Ukraine, and Ukraines supply situation more or less in the middle. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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