How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Reuters had a look at Storozhneve

 

 

[Grigb]

Sorry, could not resist:

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

Why does that sound so familiar? It's almost like there was a major war last century in which the losing side blamed their failures on the cowardice of their troops.

Nice one, Centurian

[DesertFox]

Mar'inka

 

 

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a good example of why Ukrainian sources need to be treated carefully too.   A member of the 47th Brigade that was there said they suffered 2xKIA.  Further, when the Russians poked around up close it was clear there were at least 3xKIA, two of which were badly burned.  So whatever the case really is, Donik is wrong that there were no Ukrainian KIAs.

I think he mentioned about 5KIA, but his unit also conducted some infantry combat that days.

Just some joke regarding last photo:

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

comments of well-known UKR volunter Donik regarding that fight

 

This is a good example of why Ukrainian sources need to be treated carefully too.   A member of the 47th Brigade that was there said they suffered 2xKIA.  Further, when the Russians poked around up close it was clear there were at least 3xKIA, two of which were badly burned.  So whatever the case really is, Donik is wrong that there were no Ukrainian KIAs.

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

and 47 brigade claim of RU losses as of 18:00 13-Jun

• APC 1 destroyed
• Cars 3 damaged, 2 destroyed 
• Trucks 5 destroyed
• Tanks 6 destroyed
• BMP-3 2 destroyed
• ATGM 2 destroyed
• TOS  1 destroyed
• SPG 2 destroyed
• MLRS BM21 1 damaged
• Aircraft SU-25 1 destroyed
• Helicopter KA-52 1 destroyed

Seems plausible, but it sure is hard work to verify all this.  That's what we have Oryx for

Steve

[Haiduk]

On 6/13/2023 at 8:07 PM, Grigb said:

According to UKR rumors, Western equipment was employed to draw RU attention and persuade them that it was the main thing.

@Battlefront.com @The_Capt @pintere

So, at last, I have a time to translate opinion of Kostiantyn Mashovets (it has written about week ago), about what could happen on 7-8th of June and some earlier and why UKR troops involved on some directions modern Western equipment instead to use it after breaching Russian lines. Mashovets as usually writes too much, so I will post only some important takes. 

In own sarcastic manner he called Russian reaction on these developments as "premature ejaculation" )

Since 4th of June [as we remember on this day UKR troops leberated Novodarivka] Russian command frantically tried to figure out "is this IT or not IT yet?" Situation became questinable for Russian HQs as far as two weeks ago before 4th of June, when UKR troops became to conduct probes with platoon-company size forces on different sections of southern front. During these actions, for example, UKR troops managed to push off Russians from grey zone east from Velyka Novosilka on approaches to Novodonetske and Novomayorske villages. But decisisve became dates 4-6th of June, when to everybody was recommended "shut up". Because already at the moring of 7th of June Russian command encountered with a fact thatUKR troops very close to breach Russian defense line [he meant "skirmish line"] on directions Novodonetske - Kremenchyk, Novomayorske - Kremenchyk. Obviuosly, this caused real threat and Russian HQ decided - HERE IT! And Russains have reacted:

- mass of masked "for time X" artillery positions opened fire and were quicly revealed.

- most of reserves set in motion (8 brigades/regiments of 10, concentrated in this operational zone)

- aviation component was actively used

But in this moment happened UKR activation on western part of Zaporizhzhia front on direction Orikhiv - Tokmak and other. Russian HQs decided that everything, what is developing in V.Novosilka salient is just "distracting trick" and main strike obviously now is developing in western part of front.

[My remark 1 - and 47th brigade on Bradleys and Leo2 was enogh good to ensure them in this. Remark 2 - likely UKR command could intentionallt to choose for this demoinstrative atatck more tough armor, being confident it can save much more lifes of soldiers, than it could do Soviet equipment. And this really worked - despite on enough big losses in armor, 47th brigade had only 5 KIA in this day]     

 But situation in zone of responsibility of Troops Grouping "East" (western part of Zaporizhzhia front) became more hard than they expected. Point is that, Russian comamnd deployed own troops in two echelones,and to skirmish line was detached relatively not so large number of troops. Main forces were deployed on the range 20-30 and sometieme 40 km (the same 10 brigades and regoments). So, when UKR troops attacked along different sections, commanders on "skirmish line" strating from company level and higher became to demand reserves in very hysterical manner, saying about "critical situation". Due to some objective and technical reasons Russian HQs were unable to verify this information and were forced to take on trust [Putin's appeal to militaries on eve with words about "personal responsibility" also coul play evil joke - nobody didn't want to risk with own head if UKR trops really would breach from direction, where company X begged reserves] 

All that caused this "premature ejaculation" - masked positions of artillery were involved on 100 %, reserves continuosly moved along main line and toward skirnish line and of course, all these movement were tracked by UKR intelligence and recon units. For theese first days UKR had been striking 30 of Russian revealed artillery units level battary and battlion, using guided ammunition and HIMARS. 48 artillery pieces and MLRS were taken out in these strikes. Were destroyed also up to 50 of combat vehciles and 25-30 of suply trucks. Also on skirmish line were destroyed 12 T-54/62, using as fixed armored fire positions. 

But more inetersting, despite all this mess HQ of TG "East" likely to this time couldn't decide for themselves - "is this IT or not IT yet?"

 

As addition his other article - but very short. He claims Russian command made startegical mistake moving strategic reserves to reinforce distracting offensive actions on Kupiansk direction in order to force UKR command to move reserves to Kupiansk and in this way to weaken UKR offensive on Zaporizhzhia front. But UKR troops suddenly activated on Bakhmur direction. Russians expected UKR troops will be able here only to tactical actions, so they didn't pay attantion on "fights for tree-plants" around Bakhmut... Untill... Until each day per 100-200-500 m of UKR advance put Ruusian TG "South" in Bakhnut in very discomfort situation. Additionally, UKR command periodically was making short pauses in advance, so Russians had imagination of fading out of UKR activity. But during this pause UKR command slightly was increasing own forces and repeating attacks. So instead of "stabilizatiot" Russians got additonal headache and now must think how to distribute free reserves for three directions only inside Siversk - Bakhmut front.     

Edited June 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a good example of why Ukrainian sources need to be treated carefully too.   A member of the 47th Brigade that was there said they suffered 2xKIA.  Further, when the Russians poked around up close it was clear there were at least 3xKIA, two of which were badly burned.  So whatever the case really is, Donik is wrong that there were no Ukrainian KIAs.

Seems plausible, but it sure is hard work to verify all this.  That's what we have Oryx for

Steve

Opinion of Donik and claimed Russian losses, inflicted by 47th already were criticized by people related to this developments. For example Ka-52 allegedly wasn't their victory and about Su-25 shot down even General Staff didn't claim.

Additionally a guy from 47th offered to issue a video how Bradley destroyed Russian tank with own gun, but "when it will be allowed" 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[beardiebloke]

5 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Medvedev threatening to destroy submarine communications cables like some two bit gangster. I think it was some smart folks on this forum who said this is a realistic option for escalation that Russia still has in this war.

But I suppose if they do carry out this threat, Ukraine will still be blamed, like for the explosion at Kakhovka dam by the Kremlin.

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.

Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.

So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.

 

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.

Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.

So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.

 

just for reference

Submarine Cable Map

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@Battlefront.com @The_Capt @pintere

So, at last, I have a time to translate opinion of Kostiantyn Mashovets (it has written about week ago), about what could happen on 7-8th of June and some earlier and why UKR troops involved on some directions modern Western equipment instead to use it after breaching Russian lines. Mashovets as usually writes too much, so I will post only some important takes. 

In own sarcastic manner he called Russian reaction on these developments as "premature ejaculation" )

Since 4th of June [as we remember on this day UKR troops leberated Novodarivka] Russian command frantically tried to figure out "is this IT or not IT yet?" Situation became questinable for Russian HQs as far as two weeks ago before 4th of June, when UKR troops became to conduct probes with platoon-company size forces on different sections of southern front. During these actions, for example, UKR troops managed to push off Russians from grey zone east from Velyka Novosilka on approaches to Novodonetske and Novomayorske villages. But decisisve became dates 4-6th of June, when to everybody was recommended "shut up". Because already at the moring of 7th of June Russian command encountered with a fact thatUKR troops very close to breach Russian defense line [he meant "skirmish line"] on directions Novodonetske - Kremenchyk, Novomayorske - Kremenchyk. Obviuosly, this caused real threat and Russian HQ decided - HERE IT! And Russains have reacted:

- mass of masked "for time X" artillery positions opened fire and were quicly revealed.

- most of reserves set in motion (8 brigades/regiments of 10, concentrated in this operational zone)

- aviation component was actively used

But in this moment happened UKR activation on western part of Zaporizhzhia front on direction Orikhiv - Tokmak and other. Russian HQs decided that everything, what is developing in V.Novosilka salient is just "distracting trick" and main strike obviously now is developing in western part of front.

[My remark 1 - and 47th brigade on Bradleys and Leo2 was enogh good to ensure them in this. Remark 2 - likely UKR command could intentionallt to choose for this demoinstrative atatck more tough armor, being confident it can save much more lifes of soldiers, than it could do Soviet equipment. And this really worked - despite on enough big losses in armor, 47th brigade had only 5 KIA in this day]     

 But situation in zone of responsibility of Troops Grouping "East" (western part of Zaporizhzhia front) became more hard than they expected. Point is that, Russian comamnd deployed own troops in two echelones,and to skirmish line was detached relatively not so large number of troops. Main forces were deployed on the range 20-30 and sometieme 40 km (the same 10 brigades and regoments). So, when UKR troops attacked along different sections, commanders on "skirmish line" strating from company level and higher became to demand reserves in very hysterical manner, saying about "critical situation". Due to some objective and technical reasons Russian HQs were unable to verify this information and were forced to take on trust [Putin's appeal to militaries on eve with words about "personal responsibility" also coul play evil joke - nobody didn't want to risk with own head if UKR trops really would breach from direction, where company X begged reserves] 

All that caused this "premature ejaculation" - masked positions of artillery were involved on 100 %, reserves continuosly moved along main line and toward skirnish line and of course, all these movement were tracked by UKR intelligence and recon units. For theese first days UKR had been striking 30 of Russian revealed artillery units level battary and battlion, using guided ammunition and HIMARS. 48 artillery pieces and MLRS were taken out in these strikes. Were destroyed also up to 50 of combat vehciles and 25-30 of suply trucks. Also on skirmish line were destroyed 12 T-54/62, using as fixed armored fire positions. 

But more inetersting, despite all this mess HQ of TG "East" likely to this time couldn't decide for themselves - "is this IT or not IT yet?"

 

As addition his other article - but very short. He claims Russian command made startegical mistake moving strategic reserves to reinforce distracting offensive actions on Kupiansk direction in order to force UKR command to move reserves to Kupiansk and in this way to weaken UKR offensive on Zaporizhzhia front. But UKR troops suddenly activated on Bakhmur direction. Russians expected UKR troops will be able here only to tactical actions, so they didn't pay attantion on "fights for tree-plants" around Bakhmut... Untill... Until each day per 100-200-500 m of UKR advance put Ruusian TG "South" in Bakhnut in very discomfort situation. Additionally, UKR command periodically was making short pauses in advance, so Russians had imagination of fading out of UKR activity. But during this pause UKR command slightly was increasing own forces and repeating attacks. So instead of "stabilizatiot" Russians got additonal headache and now must think how to distribute free reserves for three directions only inside Siversk - Bakhmut front.     

Ok, trying to sort this out.  So we have a bunch of probes and pokes in the run up.  The RA revealed themselves too early and as a result got hammered…badly by the sound of it (48 guns ?!).  Is this why the RA artillery seems tepid?  Being dead does create significant delays in fire support.

[cesmonkey]

 

[Harmon Rabb]

19 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.

Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.

So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.

 

Thank you, for the pardon the pun... In depth explanation of submarine cables. I will keep it in mind the next time I hear Medvedev try to threaten us with this possibility most likely after having a few drinks.

 

[Haiduk]

Recovered Leo2 being towed for repairing

 

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, trying to sort this out.  So we have a bunch of probes and pokes in the run up.  The RA revealed themselves too early and as a result got hammered…badly by the sound of it (48 guns ?!).  Is this why the RA artillery seems tepid?  Being dead does create significant delays in fire support.

48 assets probably about 10 % of all artillery/MLRS on Zaporozhian front, but it anyway significant number for several days 

[beardiebloke]

12 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Thank you, for the pardon the pun... In depth explanation of submarine cables. I will keep it in mind the next time I hear Medvedev try to threaten us with this possibility most likely after having a few drinks.

 

Don't get me wrong, it would suck... a lot.  But whatever they achieve wouldn't last forever and have no impact on the war.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/ukraines-multiple-axes-of-attack/

UKRAINE’S MULTIPLE AXES OF ATTACK
NICK DANFORTH AND MICHAEL KOFMANJUNE 14, 2023
PODCASTS - PODCASTS - WAR ON THE ROCKS

my summary: 

• very incomplete and delayed image with competing claims.
• the offensive has been going on for a week
  • two main axes of advance, Tokmak and Velyka Novosilka
    • another shoe might very well drop as a new axis
      • Luhansk is likely to see some action
  • Separate axis in Bakmut, incremental gains
    • secondary priority
    • grinding fight
• So far operation is closer to Kherson than Harkiv. Still doesn't mean it won't transform into something else.
  • Ukraine has not committed its main forces and has not reached the main defensive lines
    • Defensives are clearly a significant factor and mechanized mobile warfare against them has proven challenging in this war
• Success/failure too early to tell
  • Traditionally starting days are decisive but this is not always the case. Seems not in this case here
    • The key question is where Ukrainians are now in relation to where they were planning to be at this point and how is are force commitments going on both sides.
  • It is clear that the rosiest predictions of this operation were incorrect.
    • These people might believe they are helping by inflating expectations but they are not
• At this point, it is clear that the main advantage of Western equipment is survivability and night operation capacity.
  • No wunderwaffe
  • In the big picture, Mike thinks the technical tactical level capabilities are just one piece of a big puzzle. Names this is his biased opinion. 
    • It comes down to force employment 
• We have only seen only a couple of the new brigades in operations in limited scope so the capacity of the new formations is still largely unknown.
• Ukraine seems to have enough ammo and probably has an advantage in artillery in the south. No longer "she'll hunger" of the beginning of the year.
• Ukraine military
  • Ukraine's military has one foot in the Soviet past and one foot in "NATO".
  • Wide variety between units in culture, skill, and experience 
  • The prewar military was nothing like many in the West described it as NATO trained ext.
    • No widespread Western training, no NCO core...
  • The prewar UKR military does not exist anymore
    • Mobilization and coming of old Soviet reserve officers 
  • It is remarkable how much Ukraine's military has done given its challenges
• What happens after a Ukrainian breakthrough?
  • logistics?
  • Enablers?
  • sustaining momentum?
  • how much of the Ukrainian force is left at the moment of breakthrough?
  • How will Russia be able to react?
  • Russian ability to recover?
• challenges Ukraine has
  • Limited amounts of engineering equipment. Breaching equipment is also often lost at first
  • Ukraine has a challenge with a lack of short-range AA with the formations
  • minefields
  • challenges with enablers 
  • challenges with force employment
  • units are green
    • Ukraine is attaching more experienced units to these green units
  • Russia has significant force density and reserves in the south
  • not easy the do offensive operations when you have always been a defensive force

[Haiduk]

SkyFall Vampire bomber drone (similar to R18, but it was designed as part of project "Army of drones") delivers food for inhabitants of completely flooded Kardashivka village on left bank of Dnipro. People have found a shelter on the height near own village and live there in tents. Russian occupation "authorities" don't help them

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, riptides said:

Well one party considers the action to be a Special Military Operation.

Therefor I see no hold up with membership for Ukraine.

Jeez, you know what I mean. 

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, well I get the no echo chamber part but I also should be able to make professionally based observations without being accused of being a blind apologist hooked on “copium”.  And then when challenged by very weak counters and counter-challenge, I should not be accused of being a “commissar”.  You are of course free to have an uniformed opinion but I am not evil because I point it out.

This entire thing is an observation that on a UA mine breaching disaster - no debate on that, and trust me I have forgotten more about mechanized minefield breaching than just about everyone else you may meet - that RA artillery was tepid to the point of being odd for the context.  That suddenly turned into a crisis point of blind pro-Ukraine echo chamber building because in your opinion this observation was unmerited.  You did not back that up by any hard facts and have even admitted it is too early to tell.  Then when the freakin RA commander says through Russian MOD controlled media that his own artillery was very effective, your response is to crow on how that validates your own position.  When pressed your response was “why would Russia lie about such a thing?” To which I provided 4 different reasons…and now I am an echo chamber commissar.

FFS, you brought the weak arguments to the table and now we are to be punished for pointing that out…how is that not creating another echo chamber of its own?

We have been hearing reports of problems with RA indirect fire for months, this could simply be another data point - not a verdict on the entire Russian defence.  We will see in due time whether or not corrosive warfare will or will not work again.  Not every counter-RA observation is pro-Ukrainian or vice versa.  However, if you are going to start beaking off the least you can do is bring some actual facts or coherent observations to the party.  Unlike whatever social media, school or your friends/family or whatever told you, your opinion is not worth its weight in gold.  We do not respect it simply because you posted it.  It need facts, experience or something to support it.

Honestly you are one of the last persons I could have issues in this forum. I respect your professional input , you almost by accident got in the crosshairs. Apologies for that. The commissar comment was totally not for you btw. 

For the rest, we will have to wait I guess. Russia practically is against a coalition of 40 countries, is getting hit from unlimited state of the art weaponry, we saw how they lost 5 Mstas in a short time with precision strikes. They are really with their backs on the wall so chances are that at some point their arty might succumb. 

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

one of the ratings for a Marine’s promotion is their rifle qualification score. Basically every Marine is a “dedicated Marksman.” 

I didn't know that. Thanks. 

[Haiduk]

5 Tu-95 and 2 Tu-22M3 approaching to launch zone. Recon UAV was spotted recently over northern part of Kyiv oblast. Looks like we will have loud night again...

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Honestly you are one of the last persons I could have issues in this forum. I respect your professional input , you almost by accident got in the crosshairs. Apologies for that. The commissar comment was totally not for you btw. 

For the rest, we will have to wait I guess. Russia practically is against a coalition of 40 countries, is getting hit from unlimited state of the art weaponry, we saw how they lost 5 Mstas in a short time with precision strikes. They are really with their backs on the wall so chances are that at some point their arty might succumb. 

Ah, well in typical male-fuelled fashion..cool, let’s watch together and try to figure this thing out as it unfolds as a team.  

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

We had a saying that anyone can hit a target when no one is shooting back. Since my entire service was as a MarineI can’t speak to U.S. Army TO&E, which apparently has a dedicated Marksman in every squad. Every Marine is a Rifleman first and foremost  before his or her primary job, including Mechanics, Clerk Typists, Admin Personnel, Pilots, Aircrew, etc, in fact, one of the ratings for a Marine’s promotion is their rifle qualification score. Basically every Marine is a “dedicated Marksman.” 
I don’t know if it still does, but the U.S.M.C. used to have an MOS for “Scout/Sniper.” Those Marines were usually initially earmarked in Recruit Training as having initially Qualified as “High Expert” on the rifle range.

One of the reasons for the U.S. Army adopting the M16 (other than their abject terror of the AK-47) was because it allowed “every” Soldier to be an “Automatic Rifleman” to “spray and pray” in the thick  jungle flora. Marines have always had a single Marine in each Fire Team designated as an Automatic Rifleman. That individual was the the only one with an M14 that had selective fire capabilities.

Usually, the Point man of every patrol was armed with a shotgun, even if he had to have one mailed from home.

The Procurement Branches are primarily concerned with logistics rather than terrain and how effective a weapon is for a number of different environments.

Ok, so what I've seen of a couple of your posts leads me to think that you may have taken some of the inter-service rivalry rhetoric a bit too seriously. There are/were fewer differences between the US Army and the US Marines than you think. The Marines also adopted the M16 in the 60s (same decade that the Army adopted it, though the Marines may have received their new M16s a bit more slowly). The Army has also only ever had one automatic rifleman on each fireteam. 

And here's the real kicker. When Marines and Army infantry face off against each other in exercises, they tend to perform pretty similarly to each other. Sometimes the Marines win, and sometimes the Army wins. There is no strong evidence that the infantry of one branch is significantly better than the infantry of the other branch.

The main difference is that, while both the Marines and the Army theoretically consider everyone to be an infantryman first, the Marines take that far more seriously, while the Army prefers their specialists to focus on specialist skills. So Marine non-infantry will be far more competent at infantry stuff than Army non-infantry. But us Army POGs might make up for that by spending more time gaining competence at the specialist tasks that we are actually expected to contribute to the fight.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Centurian52

[The_Capt]

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

48 assets probably about 10 % of all artillery/MLRS on Zaporozhian front, but it anyway significant number for several days 

So what I am really wondering is if the UA strategy of creating friction and eroding key nodes on the RA operational system can create another operational collapse.  This will be key to understanding if Defence has primacy or exists in relative parity with Offence.  The UA targeting a key leg on the arty-inf/ATGM-ISR stool is a good step.