chrisl Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 So are there any updated estimates of RU force density? A quick search puts the last estimate at April 23 with an average of 250 men/km. I didn't trace it all the way back, but from the discussion I'm assuming that's combat-capable and doesn't include support personnel. That's two companies per km of front. Maybe a little lighter where there are (or were) water obstacles, and heavier where there's a logistics hub in the path. But if it's two companies per km, then the forward positions are/were maybe two platoons per km with a third in reserve near the front, and the same at the "main" line ~10 km back. So the first "main" line of defense is possibly not manned any better than the first line, and may just be dug in better. And can there be much between the main line and the Sea of Azov once the main line breaks? Possibly in some areas, but RU just doesn't have enough forces overall, and they can't concentrate them without getting HIMARSed/Storm Shadowed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) . Edited June 12, 2023 by Harmon Rabb 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 We will know the Russians understand how badly it is going when everyone in this picture is mobilzed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, dan/california said: We will know the Russians understand how badly it is going when everyone in this picture is mobilzed. Or ultimately immobilized... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 When I saw 'Angry Patriots Club' my first thought is they better not be presenting anyone with award trophies. We know how badly that turned out last time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 9 hours ago, Haiduk said: This was found in the tablet of Russian officer. TO&E of US Division-86 tank and motorized infantry battalions and the same units of Western Germany. Generals always prepare itself to wars of past %) This is either repost, or second time such captured “intel” documents have been shown. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 1 hour ago, chrisl said: So are there any updated estimates of RU force density? A quick search puts the last estimate at April 23 with an average of 250 men/km. I didn't trace it all the way back, but from the discussion I'm assuming that's combat-capable and doesn't include support personnel. That's two companies per km of front. Maybe a little lighter where there are (or were) water obstacles, and heavier where there's a logistics hub in the path. But if it's two companies per km, then the forward positions are/were maybe two platoons per km with a third in reserve near the front, and the same at the "main" line ~10 km back. So the first "main" line of defense is possibly not manned any better than the first line, and may just be dug in better. And can there be much between the main line and the Sea of Azov once the main line breaks? Possibly in some areas, but RU just doesn't have enough forces overall, and they can't concentrate them without getting HIMARSed/Storm Shadowed. I remember doing the math wtih the little info we had and remember coming up with 2x Coy per KM. My presumption is that the second line (main line) holds 50-70% of the entire force. What I think the Russians are planning is to see where Ukraine is interested and move reserves to that sector, thus making the troop density higher than the 1+ company already in place. That way they can maximize their density in the places that matter and not where Ukraine isn't investing heavily. If this is accurate, I see three very big problems with this given what we think we know about the Ukrainian plans: Ukraine has a high degree of ability to interdict reinforcements moving around, slowing and causing degradation. Russia has very limited reserves in the area that aren't already committed somewhere else. This means wherever they thicken the lines they thin it somewhere else. Ukraine has the skill and ability to hit Russia anywhere the lines are thin. Last year Ukraine did this with the Kharkiv offensive when forces were drawn to Kherson. This time there is no such singular large scale vulnerability, however several small areas seem to be very probable. Bakhmut is already happening. It seems Kreminna or Svatove appear on the menu, and of course the still active front around Donetsk City. All speculation, of course, but it is based on what Ukraine has done in the past and appears to be doing so far. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Ukraine's Zelenskiy: Work has started on international investigation of dam breach (reuters.com) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 7 hours ago, Beleg85 said: I would read it as PsyOps thrown in crucial phase, may have some truth in it but likely on smaller scale. Rare iteration of tactical markings: The Leopards have these markings, so either it is 47th Mech Brigade specific or it is for the operation it is attached to. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: I remember doing the math wtih the little info we had and remember coming up with 2x Coy per KM. My presumption is that the second line (main line) holds 50-70% of the entire force. What I think the Russians are planning is to see where Ukraine is interested and move reserves to that sector, thus making the troop density higher than the 1+ company already in place. That way they can maximize their density in the places that matter and not where Ukraine isn't investing heavily. If this is accurate, I see three very big problems with this given what we think we know about the Ukrainian plans: Ukraine has a high degree of ability to interdict reinforcements moving around, slowing and causing degradation. Russia has very limited reserves in the area that aren't already committed somewhere else. This means wherever they thicken the lines they thin it somewhere else. Ukraine has the skill and ability to hit Russia anywhere the lines are thin. Last year Ukraine did this with the Kharkiv offensive when forces were drawn to Kherson. This time there is no such singular large scale vulnerability, however several small areas seem to be very probable. Bakhmut is already happening. It seems Kreminna or Svatove appear on the menu, and of course the still active front around Donetsk City. All speculation, of course, but it is based on what Ukraine has done in the past and appears to be doing so far. Steve I imagine that Ukraine has developed their plans based on all of those, combined with some confidence that they have better ISR (though multiple modes) than Russia and will be able to get rapid knowledge of where the RU lines are being thinned. Given Ukraine's internal lines and knowledge that they don't have to worry about controlling the civilian population in any area they retake (except maybe pre Feb 24 LPR/DPR), they should be able create, identify, and exploit some weaker spots without having to play their hand through recon in force. Edited June 12, 2023 by chrisl 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 95 more Ukrainian POWs returned home. These guys came from a pretty eclectic bunch of battles: Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 A little off topic since I know we are all laser focused on the counteroffensive. But wow, the president of Czechia seems like a really good guy. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 According to this story, some Hacktivist siphoned blockchain currency form FSB, SVR, and GRU accounts then donated the money to Ukraine. I think someone posted a Tweet or something about this a little while ago, but this is a detailed account: https://echonewshub.com/hacker-drains-russian-special-services-wallets-transfers-funds-to-ukraine/ Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: According to this story, some Hacktivist siphoned blockchain currency form FSB, SVR, and GRU accounts then donated the money to Ukraine. I think someone posted a Tweet or something about this a little while ago, but this is a detailed account: https://echonewshub.com/hacker-drains-russian-special-services-wallets-transfers-funds-to-ukraine/ Steve yeah this is fairly old if the same story I posted a while back. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Another good "silence" ad: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Is there any reason the US would not announce and replace the Bradley losses? Would be cost-effective(there are ready organizations and crews just lacking vehicles) and a huge positive statement in the information space. And the US has Bradleys coming out of its ears... I am waiting. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Ukrainians in Storozheve after the Russians apparently withdrew, on foot 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 I wonder if Ukraine can dry up Dnipro-river with other dams downstream from Dnipro-city for enough time to enable raiding and harassment operations from light forces? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Rushton referring to Wagner source, so take it with heaps of salt. Nonetheless telling: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 11 hours ago, Beleg85 said: More coming: Failed 47th mechanized brigade(?) offensive mapped 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 52 minutes ago, Offshoot said: Ukrainians in Storozheve after the Russians apparently withdrew, on foot That looks like about a full platoon hoofing it out of Storozheve. And from the maps a couple pages ago, that's the second village back from what was the front line not too long ago, so it's maybe a platoon per village as the UA works south. That would leave another full company available at the main line, consistent with the earlier estimates of ~250/km. But it's nice to see video of them hiking back in a relatively disorderly withdrawal. No fighting retreat, and they don't look like they're organized by squads. And not waiting for vehicles to carry out their gear - just getting out of Dodge as fast as they can. Maybe the video will encourage other Russian units to do the same. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ales Dvorak Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 2 hours ago, chrisl said: Another good "silence" ad: I hope his silence will be as successful as John Cage's 4'33". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 43 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Failed 47th mechanized brigade(?) offensive mapped Thats fake. Not worth bothering. Here: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) Tokmak axis, tanks look like T55 or T62 T72 with copecage, geolocated. Edited June 12, 2023 by DesertFox 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Thats fake. Not worth bothering. Here: I don't see the major western-aligned OSINT analyst questioning the validity of these images. They have an exceptional track record of spotting fakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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