How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

I was wondering about this a while ago.  Hit one end of line to draw RU forces there.  Then bigger attack happens at other end of line, w RU forced to move reserves hundreds of kms.  Except those reserves already engaged N of tokmak.  And w Bakhmut under pressure, can't really take forces from there.  Putin's head will really be spinning if Kharkiv attack is real.  Bummer that RU could move forces away from Dnieper after the flood.  Hopefully that's a very short term gain for a very long term loss.

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

If they have suckered the Russians AGAIN, and drive right down Donbas behind the Russians, and cut of the entire army I will die laughing. It will be worth it.

[Kinophile]

Y'know, that Ukrainian Volunteer blog has been indicating a big buildup on the Kremina front for a major push, for the last three months.

Just sayin'...

Edited June 10, 2023 by Kinophile

[kimbosbread]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I was wondering about this a while ago.  Hit one end of line to draw RU forces there.  Then bigger attack happens at other end of line, w RU forced to move reserves hundreds of kms.  Except those reserves already engaged N of tokmak.  And w Bakhmut under pressure, can't really take forces from there.  Putin's head will really be spinning if Kharkiv attack is real.  Bummer that RU could move forces away from Dnieper after the flood.  Hopefully that's a very short term gain for a very long term loss.

As we speculated many pages ago, Troits'ke would be a great target to cut rail lines to Donetsk and push supply routes 100km east. If UA isn't averse to holding Russian territory, Urazovo might be the way to go, and that threats Valuyki where Russia previously staged troops.

[DesertFox]

On point...

 

 

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

As we speculated many pages ago, Troits'ke would be a great target to cut rail lines to Donetsk and push supply routes 100km east. If UA isn't averse to holding Russian territory, Urazovo might be the way to go, and that threats Valuyki where Russia previously staged troops.

If they mange a complete breakthrough and sweep south, I would be tempted to "misread the map" and go all the way to Taganrog. Surely it was part of Ukraine at some point in the last thousand years.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Billy Ringo]

3 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Not just anecdotal. There were a number of videos showing mistreatment or outright execution of Russian POWs by Ukrainian soldiers. It's nowhere near the amount of crimes we saw from the other side, but there were still a number of documented incidents.

I remember seeing one and it ended up being questionable, but I'm sure it has happened.  Got a link to any of those?

[DesertFox]

Looks good

 

 

[sburke]

and the long term damage to Russia's economy continues

Russia's central bank sounds alarms on the economy as the falling ruble and record labor shortage add inflationary pressures (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Russia's central bank sounded alarms on inflation amid the falling ruble and a record labor shortage.

Policymakers kept interest rates steady on Friday but signaled an increase may be coming soon.

"The option of hiking the rate was considered, but by consensus we decided to hold the rate, but tighten the signal."

Russia's central bank sounded alarms on the economy Friday as the falling ruble and a record labor shortage add inflationary pressures.

Policymakers kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 7.5%, where it has been since September, but signaled an increase may be coming soon.

"The option of hiking the rate was considered, but by consensus we decided to hold the rate, but tighten the signal," Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a news conference, according to Reuters, adding that "the likelihood of a rate hike has increased."

In fact, central bankers discussed a hike of 25-75 basis points, she said. That's as data out Wednesday showed weekly consumer prices jumped sharply.

A rate hike would be the first since the central bank lifted the key rate to 20% in the immediate aftermath of Russia's Ukraine invasion last year, when it sought to stabilize the ruble and financial markets after Western sanctions froze the Kremlin's currency reserves.

Since then, the central bank has brought rates back down as inflation has cooled. But its new projections foresee inflation accelerating to 4.5%-6.5% by the end of the year, up from 3.5%.

"Accelerating fiscal spending, deteriorating terms of foreign trade and the situation in the labor market remain pro-inflationary risk drivers," the central bank said Friday, noting that inflation risks are leaning even more to the upside.

The warning comes as Russia has shifted to a total war economy, while Ukraine's newly launch counteroffensive points to more defense spending by the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, the ruble has tumbled against the dollar by about 14% so far in 2023, making imports more expensive and stoking inflation further. On Friday, the ruble fell past 83 to the dollar, hitting the lowest in more than two months.

Other data have shown Russia is suffering from a record labor shortage as Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine delivered a major shock to the workforce. The military mobilized 300,000 troops last year and plans to mobilize hundreds of thousands more this year, while an estimated 200,000 have been killed or wounded in Ukraine.

And the mass exodus of Russians to other countries to escape military service or economic hardship has made the labor shortage even worse. One recent study estimated that 1.3 million young workers left the labor force last year alone, representing a "massive brain drain."

The labor shortage also contributed to a sharp drop last month in Russia's industrial production, which tumbled 5% from the prior month.

 

 

[cesmonkey]

39 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

That's this telegram post:

https://t.me/rybar/48365
 

Quote

situation by the end of June 10, 2023

In the area of the Vremyevskiy ledge, the assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the 23rd and 31st OMBR, as well as the Marines of the 37th Marine Brigade, resumed attacks on Russian positions. On the right flank, enemy infantry landed in a forest belt and was able to advance to Harvest .

Now the fighting is going on near the village. At the same time, the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to reach the approaches to Novodonetsk , but fighters on the front line and artillerymen are successfully operating in this area, preventing the Armed Forces of Ukraine from approaching the village.

At the same time, on the ledge itself, Ukrainian units occupied Neskuchnoe and Blagodatnoye almost without a fight.- the military personnel of the OBTF "Kaskad" retreated to more advantageous positions due to the threat of being surrounded.

Also, enemy attacks in small groups were noted on the left flank at the Novodarovka-Rovnopol line . Judging by the almost synchronous attack on Urozhaynoye and from Bolshaya Novoselka , the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to penetrate the rear of the Russian group on the Vremievsky ledge.

At the same time, against the background of attacks in this sector, the activity of Ukrainian artillery in the Zaporozhye direction increased , and an armored fist is concentrated near Malaya Tokmachka . This indirectly indicates preparations for the next night attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine south of Orekhov .

 

[cesmonkey]

This telegram post sounds a bit panicky:
https://t.me/s/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z
 

Quote

The forces of the main offensive grouping up to 12 brigades (47, 66, 115, 116, 117, 118 ombr, 128 ogshbr, 108 obrtr, 15 guard NSU, 82 odshbr, 71 oebr, 46 oambr) Total for the offensive operation, including reserves (

in including marine brigades, as well as units located in the Kryvyi Rih direction, included in the single plan of the operation in the Zaporozhye direction), at the moment the enemy has prepared: 
Manpower - up to 56 thousand people (68 battalions)
Tanks - up to 350.
AFVs of all types - up to 1000
Field artillery guns and mortars - up to 500.
MLRS - up to 140 units.
(From these figures it is necessary to subtract the number of those destroyed in recent days)

IMPORTANT . The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is carrying out information sabotage, spreading information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are finally bogged down due to lack of funds to continue the offensive operation.
Under no circumstances can this information be trusted, it is designed to weaken the vigilance of the RF Armed Forces, the enemy has more than enough forces.

The enemy will throw everything he has into battle, regardless of losses, you must use this to inflict critical damage on him.

 

[Letter from Prague]

I just saw a picture of Ukrainian soldier standing on a beach saying "there were developments". I am going to assume that it is trolling and they are not on Azov shore yet, but one can hope

[Harmon Rabb]

Never heard of Marbled polecats before. We don't have them in North America.

Cute little creature.

[The_Capt]

31 minutes ago, sburke said:

and the long term damage to Russia's economy continues

Russia's central bank sounds alarms on the economy as the falling ruble and record labor shortage add inflationary pressures (yahoo.com)

 

Whatever happened to that guy who flew by with the “Russian Economy is Bulletproof” noise?

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

I was wondering about this a while ago.  Hit one end of line to draw RU forces there.  Then bigger attack happens at other end of line, w RU forced to move reserves hundreds of kms.  Except those reserves already engaged N of tokmak.  And w Bakhmut under pressure, can't really take forces from there.  Putin's head will really be spinning if Kharkiv attack is real.  Bummer that RU could move forces away from Dnieper after the flood.  Hopefully that's a very short term gain for a very long term loss.

Do that and cut the land bridge, or at least bring it under heavy fire, and the outside lines to move between northern and southern fronts have to go over the Kerch bridge.

Can 3 Storm Shadows take out the two rail lines and one road deck?  Leave them a single lane of pavement to pull out of Crimea.

[danfrodo]

The plot thickens noticeably today.....  We'll see if this info holds up.  Gains on the sourthern front.  Kreminna possible next  attack vector.  Very very interesting.

[cesmonkey]

 

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

cesmonkey quoted this from the invaders’ side, he did NOT say it himself!

“The evening on the Zaporizhia Front began with massive artillery preparation by the Nazis”.

It’s funny seeing the Nazis call other people “Nazis”. 

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Just about time for this. With all the sturm and drang down southish. I’ve been hoping to see this, perhaps crashing into and past Svatove, Kreminna line. Or?

Edited June 11, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[kevinkin]

ISW June 10th summary:

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.

We discussed night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

Much longer GoPro footage from 3rd Assault Brigade than what was uploaded a week or two ago.  The first part might look familiar, but there's a lot more.  Spoiler alert... Ukraine used a tank to crush a bunker again:

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

ISW June 10th summary:

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.

We discuss night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is. 

I think Ukraine is still figuring out where it wants to invest the most, so they appear to still be holding back quite a lot.

Steve

[dan/california]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think Ukraine is still figuring out where it wants to invest the most, so they appear to still be holding back quite a lot.

Steve

They still have the advantage of interior lines, they should use it. In fact with Storm Shadow they could probably REALLY delay the Russians adjusting forces if the were willing to use several of them. I mean the Russians could fix or reroute, but not instantly. If Ukraine decided the relocation of some large critical Russian units had to be slowed down by 48 hours that is probably possible, doubly so if they let them get started on a route before they interdicted it.

 

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think Ukraine is still figuring out where it wants to invest the most, so they appear to still be holding back quite a lot.

I agree. The OODA loop is going with the UA using alternation in several recon in force thrusts. Without close air support, this might something the Halls of the Pentagon never considered as a possibility across wide open terrain. Nothing wrong with having a night shift to keep the pressure on. A really good poker player can keep the table guessing until they figure out the individuals at the table. Then all losers go home saying "what the heck just happened?" That is sort of the defeat phenomenon in maneuver warfare. The enemy thinks they are ok, until they are not. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by kevinkin