How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Are these Leo2s smoking? Can't really tell from the always low res russian videos. 

No one can. My old Nokia made better vids than that. We have to wait for confirmation on the ground. As for every recon in force or attack setting I expect at least 30% loss rate. So yes we will see Leos burning sooner or later.

[sburke]

Russian Fighters Are ‘Kidnapping and Torturing’ Other Russian Fighters (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

A lieutenant-colonel in the Russian military who says he was held hostage by the Wagner Group now claims the notorious mercenaries regularly abduct Russian troops and torture them.

Roman Vinivitin, the former commander of Russia’s 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, was paraded before cameras earlier this week in an interrogation video released by Wagner, in which he was accused of drunkenly firing at mercenaries.

Now, in a video released by independent Russian news outlets Thursday, Vinivitin is calling out Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin personally.

“Yevgeny Viktorovich, you are openly discrediting the Russian Armed Forces,” he says in the 11-minute video.

Vinivitin goes on to claim the mercenary group was essentially at war with the regular army, even as both sides were meant to be fighting Ukrainians.

“In response to the question of whether I have ill will towards Wagner, I will put it this way… Tensions with the Wagnerites for me and my brigade began from the first day of our transfer to the [Bakhmut] area. This was due not only to them provoking our fighters into conflicts with their audacious behavior and constant threats to eliminate, kill, but also with specific actions,” he said.

“There were times when soldiers were kidnapped and then tortured. One soldier, for example, was kept in a cold basement, splashed with acid and chemicals in his eyes, from which he lost his sight for a while, they doused him with gasoline, brought a lighter, and tried to set him on fire,” Vinivitin said.

 

 

Wow I'm shocked!  okay no not really,

[Seedorf81]

Since we're probably all waiting for news about a big breakthrough, or a succesful  pincermovement, I was thinking about General Eisenhower in WW2 and his "broad front"-strategy.

What if Ukraine keeps steady pressure on all (the important) parts of the frontline, in stead of massive pressure on one or two parts?

Wouldn't that strain the Russian Army beyond it limits? Manpower-wise, logistics-wise and operational/organisational-wise?

 

 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Are these Leo2s smoking? Can't really tell from the always low res russian videos. 

Yes that is a Leo2A4, and lots of M113s. Its quite the **** show and definatively not just a probe or force in recon with the amount of vehicles (14 in camera shot) piling up and blowing in the same mine belt Id say its a high budget reenactment of the Russian winter offensive as of yet

https://t.me/WarZoneInc/47985

Edited June 8, 2023 by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Sorry for quoting Theiner, but small addendum and pictures to previous discussions:

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1666803376015970304

Even a Russian commentator, on yesterday's posted propaganda news clip, made mention of the damn being able to withstand a nuclear blast.  Likely an overstatement, but it doesn't diminish the point that Ukraine could not have caused this sort of destruction with some Excalibur and HIMARS hits.

It's like bridges.  Look how many hits the Kherson bridge took from Ukraine and it didn't have a structural failure.  Then when the Russians wanted it in the river, it went into the river first attempt.

Steve

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Since we're probably all waiting for news about a big breakthrough, or a succesful  pincermovement, I was thinking about General Eisenhower in WW2 and his "broad front"-strategy.

What if Ukraine keeps steady pressure on all (the important) parts of the frontline, in stead of massive pressure on one or two parts?

Wouldn't that strain the Russian Army beyond it limits? Manpower-wise, logistics-wise and operational/organisational-wise?

 

 

Some chap on here likes to natter on about 'fog eating snow' and I think that applies here...just at a higher tempo than previously. What I'm looking for is when/if Ukrainian operations force the RuAF to have to maneuver in a significant way. I don't think they they retain that capability at this point and will come unstuck. If Ukraine can take advantage of it, that's the ballgame from the Dnieper delta to Mariupol.

Edited June 8, 2023 by billbindc

[panzermartin]

3 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Yes, and lots of M113s. Its quite the **** show and definatively not just a probe or force in recon with the amount of vehicles (14 in camera shot) piling up and blowing in the same mine belt Id say its a high budget reenactment of the Russian offensive as of yet

I'm sorry but it seems miracles are expected from green crews straight from the NATO training centers in Europe, that probably haven't experienced combat before 

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, Seedorf81 said:

Since we're probably all waiting for news about a big breakthrough, or a succesful  pincermovement, I was thinking about General Eisenhower in WW2 and his "broad front"-strategy.

What if Ukraine keeps steady pressure on all (the important) parts of the frontline, in stead of massive pressure on one or two parts?

Wouldn't that strain the Russian Army beyond it limits? Manpower-wise, logistics-wise and operational/organisational-wise?

 

 

Didn't really work for the Soviets in 1942 after the line somewhat stabilized after the 1941 crisis. And their equipment was largely on par with the Germans. Operational art is why the Soviet ground forces failed it seems

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I'm sorry but it seems miracles are expected from green crews straight from the NATO training centers in Europe, that probably haven't experienced combat before 

Not the crews, commanders. Where are the mine prowlers? UR belts? Heck, even 4 guys with minesweepers if you go down a single road anyway. 

If there are none, why commence the attack and waste lifes, resources to establish that there are in fact mines and arty correction drones.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Kraft

[DesertFox]

As for ISW we are in the counteroffensive phase. First assessment and interpretations here:

 

 

[dan/california]

I think, emphasize think, that the second map demonstrates an advance from the first map.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Since we're probably all waiting for news about a big breakthrough, or a succesful  pincermovement, I was thinking about General Eisenhower in WW2 and his "broad front"-strategy.

What if Ukraine keeps steady pressure on all (the important) parts of the frontline, in stead of massive pressure on one or two parts?

Wouldn't that strain the Russian Army beyond it limits? Manpower-wise, logistics-wise and operational/organisational-wise?

 

 

So far the counter offensive is unfolding pretty much as we all predicted.  Ukraine conducted a prolonged "shaping" campaign with increasing intensity leading up to probing attacks and now, finally, the initial push into Russia's lines.

I'm thinking we'll see at least three distinct ground efforts:

1. Side battle - hit the enemy where it is weak and distant from the main fighting.  This is Bakhmut and is already well under way.  It seems resources needed to keep it going are minimal, so I expect this will continue.
2. Initial push - this appears to be (as expected) the Orikhiv and Novosilka sectors.  Whether Ukraine continues pushing hard in both or it plans on focusing on whichever is making better progress, way too soon to say.  Certainly abandoning one and focusing on the other is always an option if need be.
3. Followup push - some major new action, which we've seen no hints of so far, designed to put new and dangerous pressure somewhere away from the initial push.  We've all been thinking the Dnepr crossing is a big candidate, but it could be an inventive lateral move from one of the initial push locations.  Or it could be something even more inventive that we've either not thought of or ruled out as unlikely.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Not the crews, commanders. Where are the mine prowlers? UR belts? Heck, even 4 guys with minesweepers if you go down a single road anyway. 

If there are none, why commence the attack and waste lifes, resources to establish that there are in fact mines and arty correction drones.

The dark earth path that the vehicles are bunching up on appears to have been made by mine plows.  Which is why they are very hesitant to get off the path.

Steve

[dan/california]

Is this real? And if is explain to me why it doesn't justify Ukraine moving right along on the escalation scale.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

Girkin predicts the offensive will fail.

Used chatgpt to summarise the wall of text.

Same talking points but aviation effectiveness highlighted.

Girkin makes an interesting point that the other pro-Russians aren't daring to make... Russia has NO resources with which to counter attack.  They either defeat Ukraine's forces in the defensive belts, or they are done for.

This might seem obvious to us, but to the people who believe in the glorious Red Army, I am sure they picture Armatas streaming up from Crimea to push the Ukrainians all the way to Poland.  Even T-62s pushing Ukrainians back to their start lines isn't going to happen.

With this in mind, the underlying truth is that Ukraine is likely to hold everything it takes, less some possible tactically sound realignments.  If the counter offensive does indeed bog down and effectively ended early due to Russian defenses, Russia is still going to have less territory than it started with prior to June.  It will never take it back either.  Not without a massive mobilization like Girkin is pushing for and is unlikely to ever happen.

In short, the *best* Russia can hope for now (in wargaming terms) is a DRAW at some point where its loss of territory is stopped, but far short of what Ukraine wanted to achieve.  That's Russia's best case.  Its worst case is, of course, Ukraine getting most of the south back and Russia's landbridge to the Crimea cut off.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is this real? And if is explain to me why it doesn't justify Ukraine moving right along on the escalation scale.

Be VERY alert to Deep Fakes.  We've already seen a recent mass use of a Putin Deep Fake, so my money is this is another one.  They are going to be increasingly common.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

[cesmonkey]

The interview took place on June 2nd:

 

[Bulletpoint]

Let's not lose hope just because we see some videos of Ukraine making mistakes or suffering losses. It's bound to happen somewhere in any offensive.

The Ukrainian counterattack has barely begun in earnest and I still think it will be very succesful. But it's not going to be easy.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Let's not lose hope just because we see some videos of Ukraine making mistakes or suffering losses. It's bound to happen somewhere in any offensive.

The Ukrainian counterattack has barely begun in earnest and I still think it will be very succesful. But it's not going to be easy.

data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==

Yup.  Long ago we talked about the importance of Russia's defensive preparations and the lessons from Kherson.  Anybody here that expected Ukraine to just breeze through Russia's fortifications and get to the Sea of Azov must have missed that discussion

As with historical examples of large scale attacks against well fortified defenders, the initial losses for the attacker are going to be high.  Period.  If the attacker has planned for this, the losses are within specifications (even if those specs are horrendous!), and the defender is unable to continue defending... then success is probable and exploitation ops offer the chance to even the score in terms of losses.

To me it seems Ukraine still hasn't committed more than perhaps 1/3rd of its new forces, with even a smaller amount of that being actively used.  Ukraine still has a lot left to put into this battle and Russia does not.

Let us hope that Russia's defending units are suffering the sorts of casualties we've seen in other fights.  Russia can't afford even a 2:1 exchange.  They need Bakhmut level loss ratios, except this time with Ukraine suffering 5:1 instead of Russia.

Steve

[kraze]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Be VERY alert to Deep Fakes.  We've already seen a recent mass use of a Putin Deep Fake, so my money is this is another one.  They are going to be increasingly common.

Steve

That's not a deep fake, that's Putin's comments during invasion of Crimea in early March of 2014

[Bulletpoint]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  Long ago we talked about the importance of Russia's defensive preparations and the lessons from Kherson.  Anybody here that expected Ukraine to just breeze through Russia's fortifications and get to the Sea of Azov must have missed that discussion

I think few people here truly believed they would just ride straight through the Russian lines. But I am a bit worried that Ukraine might become a victim of its own succesful information warfare - we are so used to seeing endless videos of Ukrainians defeating hordes of hapless Russians seemingly without breaking a sweat (some hard fighting of course too) that expectations in Europe and USA will be high.

If we see Ukraine start to struggle, some people might think "Hey, didn't you guys basically win this war already, and we sent you so many weapons, and still you're not moving forward? Maybe we should stop supporting this war as it's going nowhere".

Edited June 8, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[SteelRain]

41 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Not the crews, commanders. Where are the mine prowlers? UR belts? Heck, even 4 guys with minesweepers if you go down a single road anyway. 

If there are none, why commence the attack and waste lifes, resources to establish that there are in fact mines and arty correction drones.

So far this is another desperate attempt of the Russian propaganda machine trying to convince the audience with wonky, low res clips stitched together that Ukraine is failing. There are lots of missing frames in between the cuts.

[cesmonkey]

Interesting tidbit from this Russian telegram post:
https://t.me/dva_majors/17241

Quote

Let's pay attention , the enemy started mining the paths with anti-tank mines DM-31 (magnetic anti-tank, reacts to metal !!!) in the direction of Novoe, Novaya Pavlovka, Verbovoye, Ilchenko, Sladkaya Balka.

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Yes that is a Leo2A4, and lots of M113s. Its quite the **** show and definatively not just a probe or force in recon with the amount of vehicles (14 in camera shot) piling up and blowing in the same mine belt Id say its a high budget reenactment of the Russian winter offensive as of yet

https://t.me/WarZoneInc/47985

Geolocation shows this tightly-packed mechanized group being hit by 152mm  before they reached exact frontlines, in mala Tokhmachka.

Certainly there is at least 1 Leo2 hit. To be expected, though I hoped for less direct approach too...well, time will tell.