How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Homo_Ferricus]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Likely UKR UAV filming of Russian tank with "bbq on top" got HEAT in turret and exploded through some time in Novodarivka village (6 km SW from location of Russian video near Rivnopil')

 

 

Are all the tanks in this video Russian? If this is a UKR drone ostensibly filming from the direction UKR is advancing from, it appears that some of the tanks in the foreground are UKR tanks on the advance?

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

 

Are all the tanks in this video Russian? If this is a UKR drone ostensibly filming from the direction UKR is advancing from, it appears that some of the tanks in the foreground are UKR tanks on the advance?

Probably foreground tanks really Ukrainian, but it's unclear. Burning tank obviously Russian (top cage)

[akd]

Now Wagner is also capturing Russian POWs:

 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

Now Wagner is also capturing Russian POWs:

 

It might be time to revisit offering Prigozhin the chance to be an out and out king In Krasnodar and the surrounding part of Southern Russia if he was to head that way and wreck the Russian army's logistics in the process of taking over.

Edit: Of course there is value in just convincing Putin he is considering it.

Edited June 4, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Now Wagner is also capturing Russian POWs:

 

He is commander of 72nd motor-rifle brigade. When Wagners tried to clear mines, set by 72nd brigade, his people opened fire,  damaged their Ural and disarmed Wagner group. He says he gave order to do this because of personal animocity to PMC Wagner.  Looks like this officer got a good punch in nose bridge. 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seminole]

 

5 hours ago, poesel said:

Like Erdogan or not - it is a stable government. And he knows how to make deals. Thus, a new NATO command center in Turkey means that Sweden will join NATO really soon.

‘Stable government’ strikes me as a rather backhanded compliment, given the concerns of worldwide trend toward authoritarianism.  

It doesn’t seem that long ago helicopters were strafing protestors and we reading about an F-16 pilot who had orders to shoot down Erdogan.

But I admit I didn’t think of the last angle, that it’s a carrot for accepting Sweden without further conditions.  

I just think of Turkey’s position in the 2003 Iraq invasion and their position during the attempt to overthrow Assad.  Not exactly a strong ‘team player’.  That’s why I find it a surprising element, but not impossible.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The U.S intelligence community assesses that the Russians have lost a total of a hundred thousand casualties, which is an order of magnitude not seen since the fight in the Pacific.

Is this just a weird US centric point of view? US losses in the Pacific theater in WW2? I mean, there were plenty of wars with many more casualties than 100,000.

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The US government's aid to Ukraine is not just about supporting democracy, but also about protecting American interests in the region.

Amazing that this might be news to... well, really anyone at all.

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

• The decisions made at high levels of government have real consequences for the lives of people in Ukraine.

 

No kidding!

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The idea of keeping Putin in power for stability is crazy and immoral, even if some analysts compare it to keeping Saddam in power after the first Gulf War.

Is it? I mean, cynical, calculating, maybe. But certainly not crazy and I don't think immoral. Look at the mess Iraq was and still to some degree is. And ISIS which is the direct consequence. Something similar in Russia but with nukes is just a nightmare. I don't see what's so crazy about helping Ukraine while at the same time trying to prevent another, possibly even bigger, tragedy.

[Haiduk]

Tough and shocking video, filmed on 20th of April how UKR combat medic cares on wounded soldiers. Probably result of 120 mm mortar shell hit position. First guy will need in artifical jowl implant, second guy with badly wounded leg and arm in terrible pain begs the doc to shoot him. Medic wrote despite their heavy wounds they survived, but he doesn't know about them anything more - these guys were from other unit and he just came to them, when heard shoutings. He asks all who knows about them to write him. Medic also was wounded since 20 minutes after filmed this video.

Full version on 12 minutes in TG link. 

This is just a video what a price pays Ukraine in this fight...

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[JonS]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

. I have always suspected Ukraine would conduct most of the initial breaching with Soviet legacy gear, and save the best NATO stuff for exploitation and the inevitable fight with whatever competent mobile forces the Russians have left.

Legacy soviet kit - with legacy Soviet commanders - to conduct the breach, leaving younger commanders with shiny kit and western training to conduct the exploitation.

Kinda makes sense; breaching operations are very process and timetable driven, and a rigid command style suits that.

Edited June 4, 2023 by JonS

[FancyCat]

the vid better be a psyop, otherwise, what the hell is RuAF gonna do with Prig? At this rate, hes gonna beat up a General. 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Everyone seems to be thinking along these lines, and that’s why this is not what they should do. Use the Leopards as a deceit somewhere, wait for the RU reserves to be rushed there, and then deliver the main blow with the battle-hardened, Soviet-equipped brigades at the other end of the frontline. Well, perhaps not exactly that, but exploiting the psychological impact the NATO equiped brigades will make when initially commited to trick the Russians migh be worth considering I guess.

If they're truly going through tens of thousands of drones/FPV munitions every month, they probably have enough of them to destroy every single Russian vehicle all the way to the Ukraine border and Sea of Azov.  That's better than A-10s providing CAS - drones will appear to be everywhere, and loss of any one (or dozen) drone is insignificant to the Ukrainian effort.  One truck on a road is hard to justify risking a CAS aircraft for, but a couple of drones?  At least one of which is expected to explode anyway?  Launch 'em.  They can create a "no drive zone" 100 km wide all the way to the Azov (or up to and beyond the Russian border), they can severely limit resupply to any dug in defenders over a very large area, then go through and mop up in detail using all the fancy NATO ground kit after running the defenders low on supplies.

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

So, according to Mashovets opinion, UKR troops should allow Russians to start their offensive efforts here, to tie their forces. But this "allowing" shoul be controlled and probably "Belgorod offensive" of RVC is a part of the complicated game. Also he told now in Russian General Staff opinions are divided 50/50. One part claims UKR offensive is a bluff and we have to atatck, in that time when other part insists UKR offensive is a real and we need to prepare to defense. 

The attacks in Belgorod are definitely intended as a distraction which offers the possibility of more if the Russians fail to address the problem.  Whether this is designed explicitly to disrupt possible Russian offensive plans towards Kupyansk... not enough evidence of that, though it seems that it is at the very least convenient for Ukraine.

As for the Russians command possibly being evenly split on whether Ukraine is going on a general counter offensive or not is really funny.  What the Hell do they think Ukraine is going to do with all the men and equipment it's built up over the last 5 months, sit around in case there's a Russian offensive out of Transnistria?

For sure Ukraine has many options for its counter offensive and none of us, not even the most informed here, have any clue what it is going to look like or where it will be concentrated.  The one certainty is things are going to happen that Russia is not prepared to deal with.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Carolus said:

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together.

Thanks for delurking to say "hi" and to make a contribution!  Always appreciated, but never a requirement

The report you posted is indeed quite interesting!  If the war wasn't going to shake up NATO's long standing organization, the acceptance of Finland and (soon!) Sweden certainly warranted some significant changes.  Fortunately it looks like we're going to see a thorough shaking up of the old Cold War stuff.  Which is good.

As the article pointed out there's a large amount of "ghost" units in the NATO structure.  For a very long time now I've advocated that these be formally purged as they serve no purpose to keep around.  We need fewer, better equipped, and fully manned formations rather than shadows.  The Bundeswehr is in the most need of a major reorganization, but I am sure others could benefit from a fresh look.

I agree with others that putting a command in Turkey makes sense geographically since NATO has, understandably, been required to pay more attention to its "southern front" in recent years.  It doesn't make sense to put it anywhere else, IMHO.  However, I agree it is probable that it is also a carrot to get Turkey to sign off on Sweden's admission to NATO.  Either way, despite the problems with Turkey's political and domestic unrest, I think it is a good move.

Steve

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The attacks in Belgorod are definitely intended as a distraction which offers the possibility of more if the Russians fail to address the problem.  Whether this is designed explicitly to disrupt possible Russian offensive plans towards Kupyansk... not enough evidence of that, though it seems that it is at the very least convenient for Ukraine.

As for the Russians command possibly being evenly split on whether Ukraine is going on a general counter offensive or not is really funny.  What the Hell do they think Ukraine is going to do with all the men and equipment it's built up over the last 5 months, sit around in case there's a Russian offensive out of Transnistria?

For sure Ukraine has many options for its counter offensive and none of us, not even the most informed here, have any clue what it is going to look like or where it will be concentrated.  The one certainty is things are going to happen that Russia is not prepared to deal with.

Steve

The Ukrainian forces in Belgorod oblast just need to keep pushing towards Belgorod city proper. If the Russians are not willing to divert troops to stop them there is no shortage of military and dual use infrastructure there that needs a bit of C4 love. I also like the idea of hooking the Russian line just north of Kupiyansk and at least faking hard towards Staroblisk. once they were back on the Ukrainian side of the line they could be supported by the full array of U.S. systems in Ukrainian service. Again the Russians can move to stop them, or suffer the pain of NOT stopping them, and they lose either way.

 

[kevinkin]

16 minutes ago, chrisl said:

If they're truly going through tens of thousands of drones/FPV munitions every month, they probably have enough of them to destroy every single Russian vehicle all the way to the Ukraine border and Sea of Azov.  That's better than A-10s providing CAS - drones will appear to be everywhere, and loss of any one (or dozen) drone is insignificant to the Ukrainian effort.  One truck on a road is hard to justify risking a CAS aircraft for, but a couple of drones?  At least one of which is expected to explode anyway?  Launch 'em.  They can create a "no drive zone" 100 km wide all the way to the Azov (or up to and beyond the Russian border), they can severely limit resupply to any dug in defenders over a very large area, then go through and mop up in detail using all the fancy NATO ground kit after running the defenders low on supplies.

Been meaning to ask this question and your post reminded me. All of the videos of UAV attacks and small unit combat overall, show missions completed during daylight. Does the war stop after dark? I don't think so. Therefore, I would like to understand what is going on at night. What percentage of UAVs can deliver munitions at night? How much traditional ground combat takes place at night? I bet there are a few examples of night time operations. But is there an large amount of action taking place we don't see in the public domain? Perhaps videos posted from daytime are just easier for the public to understand and turn into rock operas. I don't know. Puzzled. Maybe it's playing up the positive with daytime videos and keeping the night actions under secrecy. 

[Beleg85]

Always I am wary of this kind of messaging...Russians habitually overstate significance of enemy small unit actions in order to pose as victorious.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Full version on 12 minutes in TG link. 

This is just a video what a price pays Ukraine in this fight...

Terrible clip indeed.

[chrisl]

15 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Been meaning to ask this question and your post reminded me. All of the videos of UAV attacks and small unit combat overall, show missions completed during daylight. Does the war stop after dark? I don't think so. Therefore, I would like to understand what is going on at night. What percentage of UAVs can deliver munitions at night? How much traditional ground combat takes place at night? I bet there are a few examples of night time operations. But is there an large amount of action taking place we don't see in the public domain? Perhaps videos posted from daytime are just easier for the public to understand and turn into rock operas. I don't know. Puzzled. Maybe it's playing up the positive with daytime videos and keeping the night actions under secrecy. 

It's certainly a lot easier to figure out what's going on in daytime videos.  

CMOS and CCD sensors have some sensitivity in the very near IR (700 nm out to 1 micron wavelength) - basically what you get with consumer security cameras in the <$100 range.  For most applications there's a filter in front of the sensor to take that out, but cameras intended for security cams often are unfiltered.  They're not super sensitive, so most security cameras also have a bunch of IR LEDs to light up the scene - for battery operated cameras with a motion sensor they'll use whatever background light there is for sensing, then turn on the LEDs when there's motion.  The catch with that is that the illumination is very short range - effectively tens of feet.  You can work without the illuminators, but the sensitivity of the cameras is pretty low, so you won't get nearly as many targets as in the daytime.  If the targets have bad IR discipline (which the Russians very well might), you might get a reasonable number of targets, but it will be relatively hard to navigate the drone without it showing GPS on a map.

Longer wave IR gets more expensive fast - the sensors are more expensive (and more export restricted), and generally have to be cooled.  Thermoelectric coolers are very low efficiency and will suck a lot of battery.  There are some very small cryocoolers that are more efficient, but still likely to suck quite a bit of power, and use up a lot of the payload mass. So that kind of thing is probably more limited to the bigger and less expendable drones (and things like GlobalHawk)

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

5 hours ago, danfrodo said:

And what the holy hell is going on w the raids into Russia?  Seems these are causing a lot more trouble than I would've imagined.  

that's essence of guerrilla warfare 

"When the enemy advances, I retreat. When the enemy encamp, we harass them. The enemy is tired and I offer an open battle. When they retreat, I pursue." ---Mao Tse Tung

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Been meaning to ask this question and your post reminded me. All of the videos of UAV attacks and small unit combat overall, show missions completed during daylight. Does the war stop after dark? I don't think so. Therefore, I would like to understand what is going on at night. What percentage of UAVs can deliver munitions at night? How much traditional ground combat takes place at night? I bet there are a few examples of night time operations. But is there an large amount of action taking place we don't see in the public domain? Perhaps videos posted from daytime are just easier for the public to understand and turn into rock operas. I don't know. Puzzled. Maybe it's playing up the positive with daytime videos and keeping the night actions under secrecy. 

Both sides fight at night to the extent the they have the gear. More thermal capability is always VERY sought after. It is assumed that they NATO brigades being prepared for the counteroffensive will have NATO grade night vision/thermals at least for the most part. Some people think the Ukrainians are waiting for moonless night to take advantage. Just one theory among many of course.

[FancyCat]

 

[FancyCat]

Tbh, I find these small scale attacks in the border to be not as fulfilling as they could be. Keep it small scale, without threatening supply lines or political priorities and Russia can essentially ignore them. Gotta hit either the supply lines, or make a large push into Belgrod to draw away Russian forces.

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Tbh, I find these small scale attacks in the border to be not as fulfilling as they could be. Keep it small scale, without threatening supply lines or political priorities and Russia can essentially ignore them. Gotta hit either the supply lines, or make a large push into Belgrod to draw away Russian forces.

gotta do your recon to get a good idea of enemy capabilities and reaction times. appetizers... they help make a good meal great.

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Carolus said:

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together.

I will likely spend the vast majority of my time continuing to lurk, since I do not have the military knowledge to give valuable commentary on most relevant things, but in this first post, I wanted to provide a short summary of an article from the Berlin branch office of a Swiss newspaper which is about planned changes to NATO structure. While it is not directly about the situation of Ukraine, the planned changes described therein seem to be a direct result of the (renewed) invasion of '22 and thus I think it still fits to the topic.

Google translate has not worked for me on this website, maybe it does for someone else who wants to read it in its entirely:

https://www.nzz.ch/international/neue-nato-struktur-deutschland-macht-wieder-grosse-ankuendigungen-ld.1740692 

Here is the summary:

• General Christopher Cavoli and a small team has been working on a plans to reorganize the structure of NATO for about a year and these plans will be presented at the next meeting of NATO head of states in Vilnius on 11th and 12th of July
• Newspaper claims as sources 1) a team member who is involved in the planning and 2) a high-ranking ex officer who claimed to be familiar with the work
• Germany will have to prepapre to become a more important administrative and logistical hub for NATO
• NATO is aware of how the Russian attack on Ukraine has turned the world upside down, and in Brussels and Mons, Cold War terminolgy and plans are being pulled out of dusty folders 
• Below the Mons HQ and the 3 regional operative HQs of Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk, two new army staff commands will be created, called "Army North" and "Army South". Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir.
• Both Army North and Army South will be responsible to coordinate NATO troops organised as corps, divisions, brigades and battalions
• the reorgnisation and expansion of staff is the result of both the Russian invasion and of newly acquired members in Eastern Europe which have to be more integrated (and also pay heed to the fact that e.g. Poland has now 4 full army divisions and thus is a larger contributor than e.g. Germany)
• new defensive plans for the three regional HQs Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk
•  Americans want the new Army North and Army south command staff to become operable as soon as possible, which is one reason why they will be staffed to a large part by American officers from their Europe and Africa commands, since no other member state has the same number of available trained staff officers. This is also why an alternative suggestion to build up and place the two command HQs in Poland and Romania was rejected
• Cavoli's plans indicate that there will be 9 to 12 new army corps in Europe which will be fully staffed - a lot of the existing army corps from the Cold War still exist but only on paper, without any bodies
• so far it is planned a corps will contain 2 to 3 divisions with a strength of ca. 20.000 each
• the total numerical strength is not yet decided, but the number of quickly available troops will be increased from currently 40.000 to 300.000 ("New Force Model")
• NATO "Joint Support and Enabling Command" in Ulm, Germany will receive a significant increase in staff and will be responsible for overseeing the supply via ports, railway and air transport which will be routed mostly through Germany 
• the plans expect that half of the "New Force Model" troops will come from North America, the other half from European member states
• Europe is woefully behind in terms of ground-based air defense, especially against ballistic missiles and drones, and a new program is supposed to increase the number of European AD 
• German government continues to promise that it will provide 17.000 troops forthe  "Allied Reaction Force" which is supposed to form a strategic reserve with enough ammo for 30 days of operation, but German MoD will have to be honest in Vilnius if they can actually keep this promise. 
• Germany also promised to provide at least 30.000 troops which can be quickly relocated, but it is not yet decided which readiness level the troops will have - either 10 days, 30 days or 100 days
• German troops require improved communication equipment to integrate with NATO, and new digital radio are supposed to arrive until end of 2024 - another topic German MoD is expected to provide an honest outlook about at Vilnius

If anyone sees any error, please inform. I find these kinds of planned changed to NATO very interesting due to the wider implications for the Ukraine conflict but also the global security order. If this article toook me for a fool and none of this is realistic, I apologise. As I said, I lack modern military knowledge. 

 

Welcome aboard! Please don’t feel shy about posting just because you don’t have much in-depth military knowledge, you’ll develop a good base just by reading here. And, some of our most prolific posters have little to no military knowledge, and that doesn’t dissuade them from posting

[kevinkin]

44 minutes ago, chrisl said:

t's certainly a lot easier to figure out what's going on in daytime videos.  

So it gets me to wonder which side has the advantage at night and if this domain is something not well reported and a way for the west to give a new meaningful edge to the UA. 

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Been meaning to ask this question and your post reminded me. All of the videos of UAV attacks and small unit combat overall, show missions completed during daylight. Does the war stop after dark? I don't think so. Therefore, I would like to understand what is going on at night. What percentage of UAVs can deliver munitions at night? How much traditional ground combat takes place at night? I bet there are a few examples of night time operations. But is there a large amount of action taking place we don't see in the public domain? Perhaps videos posted from daytime are just easier for the public to understand and turn into rock operas. I don't know. Puzzled. Maybe it's playing up the positive with daytime videos and keeping the night actions under secrecy. 

Basically, except for raids, patrols, and speciality planned night assaults, the ground war actually does stop at night. Troops are human and have to sleep sometime! Otherwise, they won’t be fit far combat and will start shooting at hallucinations. A typical night for USMC infantry, depending on threat status, would 33%, 50%, or 100% of the grunts awake and on watch for two hour before turning it over to the next watch, except for the 100% watch which anticipates an imminent attack by the enemy.