How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

On 5/31/2023 at 10:46 AM, Splinty said:

So in other words, he's no different than any other politician.

Hear, Hear!

[Huba]

25 M109L from Italy on the way to Ukraine. A year ago it would be absolutely huge news, but today  hardly anyone cares...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1664699218999537664

Edited June 3, 2023 by Huba

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

25 M109L from Italy on the way to Ukraine. A year ago it would be absolutely huge news, but today  hardly anyone cares...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1664699218999537664

The Russians on the receiving end will care.  

[Battlefront.com]

The June 2nd ISW report spent some time discussing Russian MoD fantasies of creating two new military distracts with boatloads of new brigades.  Estimated personnel at least 120,000.  Since this will require a mobilization, it's obviously not going to happen.  However, it is in keeping with the MoD's pattern of announcing something seemingly strong/aggressive, then not doing a thing to make it happen.  They hope (and probably are correct) that people will hear this fantastical crap, take a sip of KoolAid, read all the Putinbots crowing about it, and then move onto something else.

Reading this and some more about the raids got me thinking that Russia really, really, really, REALLY can't afford to start a war with NATO now.  Their borders are so stripped of just about everything, if a war started I think Finnish forces would be in Moscow before the end of a week.  OK, I'm kidding about the details but not about the reality.  If a couple hundred Russian liberation guys can tool around in trucks for a couple of days in the same general area that they already drove around in trucks, that really tells us how crap Russia's defenses are.  I presume they've stripped air and EW assets down to practically nothing as well.

I don't think this information is really relevant other than if Putin and the MoD are 1/2 as aware of this as we OSINT people are, then they should be very careful to not accidentally get into a shooting match with NATO.  Which, I think, is why we have seen far less than the usual Russian shenanigans (violating air space, aggressive challenges to shipping, etc.) than prior to this war starting.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

19 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I don't know how is correct these assesments and what source of them, but let it be

I remind, according to latest GUR assesments Russia still capable to produce monthly about 25 Kalibrs, 35 Kh-101, 5 Iskander-M, 2 Kinzhals 

It's been theorized for some time now that Russian attacks are scaled to production capacity.  Basically, each month they shoot off what they just made with perhaps a few out of remaining stocks when they feel it is necessary.  It certainly is the most reasonable explanation for the smaller attacks spread out over more time.  This month they've certainly been more active, so I expect they've dipped into their reserves a little bit.

Steve

[Fenris]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Reading this and some more about the raids got me thinking that Russia really, really, really, REALLY can't afford to start a war with NATO now.

Steve

Especially (if reports are to be believed) because their early warning system is complete junk.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The June 2nd ISW report spent some time discussing Russian MoD fantasies of creating two new military distracts with boatloads of new brigades.  Estimated personnel at least 120,000.  Since this will require a mobilization, it's obviously not going to happen.  However, it is in keeping with the MoD's pattern of announcing something seemingly strong/aggressive, then not doing a thing to make it happen.  They hope (and probably are correct) that people will hear this fantastical crap, take a sip of KoolAid, read all the Putinbots crowing about it, and then move onto something else.

Reading this and some more about the raids got me thinking that Russia really, really, really, REALLY can't afford to start a war with NATO now.  Their borders are so stripped of just about everything, if a war started I think Finnish forces would be in Moscow before the end of a week.  OK, I'm kidding about the details but not about the reality.  If a couple hundred Russian liberation guys can tool around in trucks for a couple of days in the same general area that they already drove around in trucks, that really tells us how crap Russia's defenses are.  I presume they've stripped air and EW assets down to practically nothing as well.

I don't think this information is really relevant other than if Putin and the MoD are 1/2 as aware of this as we OSINT people are, then they should be very careful to not accidentally get into a shooting match with NATO.  Which, I think, is why we have seen far less than the usual Russian shenanigans (violating air space, aggressive challenges to shipping, etc.) than prior to this war starting.

Steve

I don't know about Moscow, but the Finns and the Poles would be shaking hands in front of the Winter Palace in St Petersburg in less than a week, by which time Poland would have already appointed a new civil administration in whatever they decided to call Kaliningrad. I don't know that Russia would ever get either one back, either.

 

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

that Russian attacks are scaled to production capacity.

Looks like a juicey target. Anyone know where the final assembly takes place and how the missiles are transported to the firing areas?  Given the raiding tactics we are seeing into Russian proper, I am pretty sure NATO knows what is going on. So why not take the raids deeper? Small footprint, plausible deniability just to keep Russia off balance at worse. At some point Ukraine has to stop being a punching bag. If NATO knows the supply chain and is unwilling to strike it from the air, then enable something else. 

[panzermartin]

Lol imagine Russia dismantling and moving the factories again beyond the Urals 

[panzermartin]

In other news, Germans are once again conspiracing secretly against their rival allies  

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1664752564930314244?s=20

[FancyCat]

Hopefully Ukraine will be lenient and ensure that civilians are able to return to the fold recognizing the coercion placed on those in the occupied regions. While the article does lean towards that point that the government is somewhat understanding it, there is still confusion. 

 

 

[poesel]

Longish article about the difficulties Russia has with selling its coal to non-western recipients (in German).

TLDR: it's very difficult. The coal is in southern Siberia. The Transsib is already clogged and shipping from Murmansk to China takes 45 days through Suez. From Dudinka it's only 22 days, but the infrastructure to get there doesn't exist.

https://www.wiwo.de/technologie/wirtschaft-von-oben/wirtschaft-von-oben-211-russische-kohle-exporte-von-wegen-russische-kohle-fuer-china/29170144.html

 

If were living in Dudinka I would start learning Chinese

 

[Kinophile]

From yesterdays ISW:

Quote

he UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian forces only advanced 29km during the entire battle for Bakhmut, which works out, the UK MoD noted, to 48 centimeters of ground territory for each of the 60,000 personnel killed or wounded near Bakhmut since May 2022.[38]

Less than half a meter for each man.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Kinophile

[DesertFox]

56 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

From yesterdays ISW:

Less than half a meter for each man.

Gives me some Blackadder and Gen. Melchett vibes...

General Melchett: 'Err what's the actual scale of this map darling??' Darling in response: '1 to 1, sir'

"Seventeen square feet, sir." "Ah, you see... young Blackadder didn't die in vain after all."

 

 

Edited June 3, 2023 by DesertFox

[Beleg85]

Highly recommended article, from person at place:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

[Kinophile]

Quote

Having trained every component of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, we have continually seen a lack of an experienced noncommissioned officer corps

Interesting how we've often pointed to the ZSU NCOs as superior to Russian.  They might be,  but not by much when compared to proper Western non-coms. 

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Highly recommended article, from person at place:

Thanks for the link. Should bring up some interesting conversations this weekend. You sort scratch your head. The UA was said to show initiative in logistics, but not in combat related planning and fighting. While this is a key hole view, it should not be passed off without acknowledging there could be some deep seated issues at least with  the infantry that will be tasked to hold ground once re-gained.  

[womble]

21 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

issues at least with  the infantry that will be tasked to hold ground once re-gained.  

It doesn't look like the RUS are going to have much left to put pressure on those elements, fortunately.

[kevinkin]

When you think long term, the border guards will have to be efficient in their jobs so most can go back and rebuild the nation. In the short term, the observations are probably over cautious.  

[cesmonkey]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Highly recommended article, from person at place:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

And it makes me very nervous about Ukraine's chances for success in the upcoming operations.

[sburke]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting how we've often pointed to the ZSU NCOs as superior to Russian.  They might be,  but not by much when compared to proper Western non-coms. 

not surprising.  Building a western style NCO force requires a lot. - Mindset, support from the military institution, training, more training, still more training and a lot of time.

[sburke]

Ukrainian drone operator dodges Russian TOR-2M missile, then catches up to it — incredible video (yahoo.com)

[sburke]

Zelenskyy says Ukraine is ready for its counteroffensive but warns that 'a large number of soldiers will die' (yahoo.com)

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Highly recommended article, from person at place:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

Many of his complaints seem valid, although a great many of them seem to have many historical parallels when a country/army tries to do to much with nit enough in a screaming hurry. Of course not doing things in a screaming hurry involves losing the war. 

Quote

We have also seen the barrels of the 155mm howitzers provided by Western countries shot out due to being used at max range (using max powder charges) to keep them out of range of counterbattery fires. 

I do think this criticism is misplaced. The Ukrainians do this because it keeps the guns alive a lot longer than trying to fight from within the Russian counterbattery envelope. In the ideal NATO operation the counterbattery isn't a problem because air supremacy means that there aren't enough guns and radars alive on the other side to be a problem, and artillery can cheerfully work from ten or fifteen klicks behind the FEBA. 

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I do think this criticism is misplaced. The Ukrainians do this because it keeps the guns alive a lot longer than trying to fight from within the Russian counterbattery envelope. In the ideal NATO operation the counterbattery isn't a problem because air supremacy means that there aren't enough guns and radars alive on the other side to be a problem, and artillery can cheerfully work from ten or fifteen klicks behind the FEBA. 

Yup, that's one side of the story. But there were also valid concerns regarding lack of adequate training for, for example, Krab howitzers operators, which resulted in excessive losess that make experts here grow their hair white. The same can be probably told about other equipment and procedures- partly it's downsaide of shortened training programms, part of old post-Soviet mentallity (albeit artillerymen were reportedly on average relatively better prepared than inf./mech.), partly of dire situation Ukrainians face.

In this article- which is sobering and valuable read indeed- there are 2-3 eye-browing moments, like remarks that UA tend to withdraw their AFV's from battlefield once infantry left the vehicle. This is often truth, but on other side they are facing ATGM's and other anti-armour weapons in deadly, peer environment (we also see this in CMBS simulated). So perhaps classical doctrine is not applicaeable here; risking loosing precious IFV just so he could supress enemy a little longer with board MG's may not be worth it, and it's better to delegate this task to drones.

But overall, very important article; I am curious why they were allowed to publish it, given they seem to be invloved in rather low-profile training activities.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Beleg85