How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

Original Source.

The video this RT article is based on...Anyone see anything wrong with this picture?

Någon? 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Original Source.

The video this RT article is based on...Anyone see anything wrong with this picture?

Någon? 

It's a Swedish AT-4. Very old news.

[The_MonkeyKing]

and summarily brought to you by Eightify: Youtube Summary with ChatGPT

INSIGHTS:
Military Strategy and Tactics in the War in Ukraine

• There is still a tremendous amount we don't know about the war in Ukraine and we have to revise the story time and time again.
• The Russian military invasion of Ukraine was structured to marry up with an intelligence operation, drawing inspiration from historical Soviet operations and borrowing aspects from the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, but ultimately failed due to incorrect assumptions and lack of preparation for sustained war.
• The Ukrainian military was more capable than the Russian forces given credit for and had a strong will to fight, with critical support from Ukrainian civil society and volunteers who stalled the Russian advance at critical points.
• Russian military pursues a war of attrition due to a deficit of manpower and a lack of good replacements for their initial losses, leveraging their advantage in firepower to bleed out Ukrainian forces.
• Despite exhaustion and casualties, Ukrainian forces have done well in stabilizing their lines and building out reserves, making the Russian military vulnerable heading into winter.
• The state of the war in Ukraine is at an inflection point, with wars proceeding in phases and having operational pauses.
• Despite the daunting task of facing Russian entrenchments and fortifications, the Russian military has created the best conditions for the Ukraine offensive.
• The Ukrainian military has taken significant losses and expanded their force mobilization, while the Russian military has taken even greater losses and also substantially refilled their force mobilization, leading to uncertainty about how these forces will match up in the upcoming fight.
• The biggest challenge in the war in Ukraine is not the current offensive, but what follows it, as history shows that conventional wars between states tend to last for several years.
• "Generally large conventional Wars. Like this can't be explained by any one small specific Factor."
• The definition of victory in the Ukrainian conflict is complex and goes beyond just territorial liberation, with the real war aims being to return to pre-2014 borders.

Political and Diplomatic Challenges in the War in Ukraine

• The challenge for the West is to determine which countries and political establishments are truly invested in attaining a military victory for Ukraine versus those who only support offensive operations for negotiation purposes.
• "We forget there's a whole other planet out there and actually most of the people live in the rest of that world and the rest of that world is actually very economically significant right and those people have views and we don't check in with them nearly as often as we should."

FULL TIMESTAMPED SUMMARY:

Quote

 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine was poorly planned and ultimately failed due to wrong assumptions and lack of preparedness, while Ukraine plans a major offensive operation with Western military assistance and the outcome remains uncertain.

• 00:00 The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was poorly planned and unrealistic, with assumptions of little resistance and a quick decisive phase, ultimately failing due to wrong assumptions and lack of preparedness for sustained war.
  • Michael Kaufman, director of the Russian studies program at the Center for Naval Analysis, will discuss the state of the war in Ukraine and how we got to this point.
  • The initial Russian military operation in Ukraine was heavily premised on assumptions about the ease of a rapid regime change operation, rather than planning for a sizable Ukrainian military resistance.
  • Ukraine is a large, industrialized country with a strong military that has undergone significant evolution since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the Russian invasion strategy relies heavily on intelligence operations and infiltrators.
  • The Russian military invasion of Ukraine was structured to marry up with an intelligence operation, heavily influenced by historical Soviet and US campaigns, with assumptions of little resistance, a small force, and a quick decisive phase, but ultimately failed due to wrong assumptions, lack of preparedness for sustained war, and confusion among troops.
  • The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was a poorly planned and unrealistic campaign that exposed weaknesses in the Russian military, while the Ukrainian military and civil society proved to be more capable and resilient than expected.
  • The outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was not predetermined and was a close run thing due to the lack of preparation and false sense of security on the Ukrainian side, with individual choices shaping the outcome.
• 16:42 Ukrainian and Russian forces engage in a war of attrition, with Ukraine receiving Western military assistance and planning a major offensive operation.
  • The Russian military focuses on a campaign in the northern part of Donbas to take key cities of Sylvan and chromatorsk, dividing the Ukrainian-held territory by a river.
  • The Russian military pursues a war of attrition due to a deficit of manpower, while the Ukrainian military is mobilized and defended with Western intelligence and military assistance, eventually acquiring Highmark systems to degrade the Russian artillery advantage and turn the initiative to their side in August.
  • Ukrainian forces conduct consecutive offensives, creating an opening in the Northeast region of Harkiv and advancing in the Southwest along the Nepro river, pressuring the Russian military to withdraw and consolidate their lines.
  • Russian and Ukrainian forces entrench and mobilize in Ukraine, with a significant battle taking place in Bakmut, which becomes politically important despite its strategic insignificance.
  • The battle for Bakmuc in Ukraine has resulted in significant losses for both sides, with the Russian military using Wagner forces primarily recruited from Russian prisons, and while the Ukrainian military has effectively defended most areas, Wagner has taken around 80-90% of the city and flanks, with the battle still ongoing.
  • Ukraine and Western countries are planning a major offensive operation, with Ukraine setting aside a force of freshly mobilized troops equipped and trained by Western countries, and the United States providing significant artillery ammunition to help enable the operation despite the daunting task of facing Russian entrenchments and fortifications.
• 30:18 The Ukrainian military plans a months-long offensive to break Russian lines, but the outcome and aftermath remain uncertain.
  • The military has likely depleted their resources and morale, which is an important factor in offensive operations, but difficult to measure accurately.
  • The Ukrainian military is planning a months-long operation to liberate territory and demonstrate their ability to break Russian lines, but both sides have undergone significant attrition and mobilization, making it difficult to predict the outcome of the upcoming fight.
  • The biggest challenge is not what will happen in the offensive, but what will follow it, as history shows that conventional wars tend to be either short or last for several years, even if negotiations begin.
  • The challenge for the West is that defeat for Russia is not the same as victory for Ukraine, and after this offensive operation, it will be revelatory to see which countries are truly invested in attaining a military victory for Ukraine versus those who invested in supporting the offensive operation for negotiations.
  • The speaker invites questions on the topics discussed in the presentation.
  • The Russian military and government have learned from their failure in the war with Ukraine, but there are differing opinions on the conclusions they may be drawing.
• 39:48 Russia's military reform plan is unlikely to work
  • Leaders tend to reason by historical analogy, but they often overlook the fact that great powers can lose wars too.
  • The Russian military leadership is planning to reform the military in a Soviet direction with large formations and mobilization of old Soviet gear, but it is unlikely to work due to Russia's lack of resources and capacity to recreate the Soviet military.
  • The assassination of a member of the Ukrainian peace delegation in March 2022 did not have a significant impact on the peace negotiations, as the Russian leadership lost leverage over Ukraine's political establishment and the public became aware of the atrocities committed by the Russian military.
  • Russia's mobilization for war includes a broad age range of conscripts, with a focus on rural regions due to demographic distribution and political reasons.
  • The challenge in following the Ukrainian conflict is that we know far less about Ukrainian forces than Russian forces due to operational security and the focus on studying adversaries rather than allies.
  • Social media is not a reliable source for understanding the war in Ukraine due to missing observation problems and interpretation issues, and it is important to visit the country to gain a better understanding of the history, culture, and military tactics.
• 57:12 Russia has not used nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine, but the collapse of their military could potentially lead to a debate on their use.
  • The Russian military did not heavily focus on coup-proofing policies, but instead was concerned with potential subversion and restoring Soviet military structures.
  • The problems with the Russian military establishment stem from the lack of punishment for incompetence and the replacement of competent individuals with loyal ones, leading to poor decision-making and ineffective strategies.
  • The victory and defeat in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia are interrelated but not necessarily overlapping, and the deployment of tactical nukes by Russia would depend on the success of Ukraine's offensive and the thresholds crossed.
  • Russia has not yet used nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine due to conditions-based decision-making, uncertainty about the cost and consequences, and the belief that they are still winning the war.
  • The collapse of the Russian military in Ukraine could potentially lead to a debate or presentation of using nuclear weapons as an alternative course of action, but it is uncertain if they would actually do it.
  • Nuclear use is not inevitable, but ignoring the risks and utility of nuclear weapons is also not a good lesson to teach.
• 01:07:36 Russia's goal in invading Ukraine was to install a friendly regime, occupy most of Ukraine, and destroy its sovereignty, while Wagner, a Russian private military company, competes with the Russian military causing infighting and a lack of coordination.
  • Russia's strategic goals in invading Ukraine were to install a Russian-friendly regime, occupy most of Ukraine, potentially create a Union state between Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, and destroy Ukrainian sovereignty to make it a politically controlled dependency.
  • Russian leadership's current objective is to control the territories they tried to annex in September and destroy Ukraine's viability as a state, and negotiations may lead to a rearman period and continuation of the war.
  • Wagner, a force composed of experienced soldiers with a different military culture from the regular Russian military, has become heavily dependent on mobilized personnel from occupied regions in Ukraine and has been working alongside the Russian airborne in the war, particularly in fighting around bahut.
  • Wagner, a Russian private military company, competes with the Russian military and recruits from a disposable assault force, causing infighting and a lack of coordination, while also vying for attention from Russian political leadership.
  • Infighting between Wagner and the Russian military has led to poor quality forces on the flanks of Buckmut, allowing the Ukrainian military to counter-attack and gain advantages, with no unity of effort or command on this particular front.
  • The speaker does not believe anyone is worried about the state of the destroyed city and takes a few more questions.
• 01:20:37 The impact of sanctions on Russia's economy is causing sustainability problems for the budget and export controls will make the economy more autarkic, while Russia's transition to a wartime economy will lead to technological backwardness and expensive workarounds.
  • The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy had a big initial shock but didn't have a lot of strategic effects, and the challenge that Russia faces is export controls are going to make the Russian economy much more autarkic, simplistic, and more like Iran's.
  • Slowly transitioning to a wartime economy, North Korea will increasingly lose access to Western goods and parts, leading to expensive workarounds and technological backwardness, but the effects of sanctions take years to fully manifest.
  • The Russian economy faces major problems with state spending and revenue generation due to the decrease in energy exports from sanctions, which will eventually create a sustainability problem for the budget.
  • Political establishments should learn that conventional wars are costly, rarely short, and come down to attrition, and they should be sure that it's something they really want to do.
  • The degradation of the Russian military's combat power and offensive potential has made it incapable of conducting large-scale operations, highlighting the importance of force quality and reconstitution for Ukraine with Western assistance.
  • Putin's regime has been focused on demobilization and keeping the public out of the political space, making it difficult to transition towards mobilization, but efforts to mobilize society have led to a change in the character of the regime.
• 01:29:57 Russian propaganda has a greater impact on non-Western countries, while the rest of the world has diverse views on globalization.
  • Russian propaganda has had a greater impact on non-Western countries where they have been more successful in spreading misinformation through platforms that are not necessarily objective.
  • The rest of the world's views on globalization are more diverse and economically significant than those in Western countries, and it's important to check in with them more often.

 

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing
formating

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It's a Swedish AT-4. Very old news.

But RT only published this story on May 31st? Don't they do any fact-checking there?

Edit: Anthony Blinken just said "many see Russia's military as the second strongest in Ukraine."

Edited June 2, 2023 by Harmon Rabb
Don't want to double post

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Rokko said:

That foot path with the embankment to the left they walk along at the end looks like it is the same one from the videos of the attack against 72nd brigade a few weeks back to the south of Bakhmut. I distinctly the remember the killed Russian in the jacket (already wondering back then why the guy was wearing a white jacket in early May). I think these are casualties from that earlier fight, the Ukrainians just didn't bother removing the dead, or the area is still contested.

Yup, I recognized that footpath as well.  What surprised me more than the dead Russians still scattered around is that they are still using the path.  This sector of front has been in flux for months now, with Russians previously making slow and steady gains.  The 3rd Brigade's videos tend to be consistent in that they show a specific operation vs. edits from all over the place.  The fresh dead Russians in the trenches indicates recently retaken terrain.  My presumption is that this terrain was taken over by Russians after the 72nd Brigade's video and very recently 3rd Assault Brigade retook them.

Whatever the case might be, some of those bodies have been there for MONTHS and nobody cleaned them up.  This area must have been too hot for quite a while.  I've seen Ukraine do some extraordinary efforts to recover their dead, but they wouldn't do that for Russians.  I don't think Russia has the same incentive to recover their dead, so they probably only recover them if its convenient.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

and summarily brought to you by Eightify: Youtube Summary with ChatGPT

Nice use of AI.  What will you do with all your time freed up from manually summarizing Kofman's videos?

The overview was good, though not much jumped out at me.  This one, though, did...

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Social media is not a reliable source for understanding the war in Ukraine due to missing observation problems and interpretation issues, and it is important to visit the country to gain a better understanding of the history, culture, and military tactics.

Interesting.  Kofman is Ukrainian and speaks both Russian and Ukrainian languages.  He's been to Ukraine more times than probably even he can count and I presume to Russia many times as well.  He also gets paid to study this stuff on a full time basis, including access to information the general public would struggle to experience.  And yet...

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Clever boobytrap:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13yggmr/warning_for_civilians_and_soldiers_in_ukraine/

 

Some of the C4 is cut out with a detonator and battery in its place.  Sapper removes the manufactured detonator to disarm, the clothespin snaps shut making an electrical connection, and boom... sapper is no more.

It would appear that an experienced sapper would be able to tell the difference because the detonator in this case is kinda loose, whereas in a real claymore it should be rather firmly in place.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nice use of AI.  What will you do with all your time freed up from manually summarizing Kofman's videos?

The overview was good, though not much jumped out at me.  This one, though, did...

Interesting.  Kofman is Ukrainian and speaks both Russian and Ukrainian languages.  He's been to Ukraine more times than probably even he can count and I presume to Russia many times as well.  He also gets paid to study this stuff on a full time basis, including access to information the general public would struggle to experience.  And yet...

Steve

More time for me to play around with other AI tools...

The tool is great. Still doesn't match doing it partially manually and just AI-aided to raise points that are particularly interesting to this forum's audience and past discussions.

[MikeyD]

Quote

Filmed in the state of Tamaulipas carrying a US-made anti-tank Javelin missile launcher...

To state the obvious, that ain't no Javelin. Every rocket launcher these days is painted green with black and yellow stripes, whether it was made in Sweden France or Korea.

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

Nce. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

But RT only published this story on May 31st? Don't they do any fact-checking there?

Heh

In 2014 it became very clear that RT routinely published blatantly false imagery, quotes, facts, etc. without properly referencing timeframes and/or locations.  It really shown a light on what RT really was (a propaganda outlet for an autocratic regime) and what it wasn't (a legitimate news source).  Yet it wasn't until this war that action was taken against them.  Now RT is basically limited to internet broadcasting in the West as it's infrastructure in the US and France have gone into bankruptcy:

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/eu-court-backs-eu-ban-russia-today-2022-07-27/

https://global.espreso.tv/french-court-declares-russia-today-france-bankrupt

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/media/rt-america-layoffs/index.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Nce. 

It is fine to be skeptical, however there is visual confirmation that the airport (or something in that direction) was hit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13y28lu/explosions_in_kursk_at_night_presumably_at_the/

Possibly related:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13yc9s2/there_is_concern_in_kursk_their_own_rockets_are/

Steve

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is fine to be skeptical, however there is visual confirmation that the airport (or something in that direction) was hit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13y28lu/explosions_in_kursk_at_night_presumably_at_the/

Possibly related:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13yc9s2/there_is_concern_in_kursk_their_own_rockets_are/

Steve

One side gets continually weaker while one side gets continually stronger.  Putin maybe wishing he hadn't wrecked so much of his army over the winter.

[Bearstronaut]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh

In 2014 it became very clear that RT routinely published blatantly false imagery, quotes, facts, etc. without properly referencing timeframes and/or locations.  It really shown a light on what RT really was (a propaganda outlet for an autocratic regime) and what it wasn't (a legitimate news source).  Yet it wasn't until this war that action was taken against them.  Now RT is basically limited to internet broadcasting in the West as it's infrastructure in the US and France have gone into bankruptcy:

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/eu-court-backs-eu-ban-russia-today-2022-07-27/

https://global.espreso.tv/french-court-declares-russia-today-france-bankrupt

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/media/rt-america-layoffs/index.html

Steve

First time I ever saw RT was in a hotel room in Seoul in 2012. I was flipping channels on the TV and was surprised to hear English so I watched it for about an hour before going out to the bars. It was comically anti-American and I had a good laugh while pre-gaming some soju in my room.

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

First time I ever saw RT was in a hotel room in Seoul in 2012. I was flipping channels on the TV and was surprised to hear English so I watched it for about an hour before going out to the bars. It was comically anti-American and I had a good laugh while pre-gaming some soju in my room.

My favorite thing about RT back in those days is who they would interview.  They routinely had the West's "drunk uncles" that the rest of the family was ashamed of onto the show with lofty titles like "Foreign Policy Expert".  The pro-Russians on our Forum would point to these interviews and say "here's proof of our point of view and it is from one of your experts!".  Digging even a tiny bit into it showed how badly distorted the presentation was.

One of my favorites was a "foreign policy expert" who turned out to be an unemployed nutjob in my home state that had absolutely no education or professional credentials.  He was just an internet troll/blogger.

Here's an interesting piece in the NY Times about RT America when it shut down operations:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/12/business/rt-america-russian-tv.html

One aspect of this article is how clever Russia was in selecting who to hire.  The people working for RT America insisted they were never told what to say by the Russian government, and with some exceptions was probably true.  But what they don't say, because it isn't flattering to who they are is people, is that they were specifically hired because they were already "useful idiots". 

An analogy is a university radio station only hiring people for sports news who are ultra fans of the university's sports teams.  The management doesn't need to tell them to promote the teams, and therefore the university, because they are inclined to do it of their own volition.  Plus, down deep they know that's why they are hired and will likely voluntarily stay away from topics the university would rather not have covered.

This is a really great way to create a disinformation organization and is consistent with Russia's skill set of deceit.  One of the few things the Russian government is really good at.

Steve

[billbindc]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My favorite thing about RT back in those days is who they would interview.  They routinely had the West's "drunk uncles" that the rest of the family was ashamed of onto the show with lofty titles like "Foreign Policy Expert".  The pro-Russians on our Forum would point to these interviews and say "here's proof of our point of view and it is from one of your experts!".  Digging even a tiny bit into it showed how badly distorted the presentation was.

One of my favorites was a "foreign policy expert" who turned out to be an unemployed nutjob in my home state that had absolutely no education or professional credentials.  He was just an internet troll/blogger.

Here's an interesting piece in the NY Times about RT America when it shut down operations:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/12/business/rt-america-russian-tv.html

One aspect of this article is how clever Russia was in selecting who to hire.  The people working for RT America insisted they were never told what to say by the Russian government, and with some exceptions was probably true.  But what they don't say, because it isn't flattering to who they are is people, is that they were specifically hired because they were already "useful idiots". 

An analogy is a university radio station only hiring people for sports news who are ultra fans of the university's sports teams.  The management doesn't need to tell them to promote the teams, and therefore the university, because they are inclined to do it of their own volition.  Plus, down deep they know that's why they are hired and will likely voluntarily stay away from topics the university would rather not have covered.

This is a really great way to create a disinformation organization and is consistent with Russia's skill set of deceit.  One of the few things the Russian government is really good at.

Steve

I have warm and fuzzy memories of being considered a Cold War relict because I was profoundly suspicious of anyone working for RT.

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/army-sent-vehicles-rotted-tires-and-misfiring-cannons-ukraine-watchdog-finds/386959/

[Beleg85]

Prigozyn publiclly accused MoD of mining Wagner's avenues of retreat with "hundreds of mines" and IED's made from UR-77 explosive charges  in at least "dozen points they expected us to withdraw by". They reportedly called investigators who pointed toward folks from MoD installing those explosives on "orders from the top".

Even if he colorizes heavily, it shows level of distrust there.

[trans. in pl]

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1664716979326836738

 

 

 

[kevinkin]

“Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. Winston's observation holds today. 

[sburke]

or as we might say today Russia is a plague infected rat, wrapped in a used Depends, stuffed into the rotting corpse of a Russian soldier left on the fields of Bakhmut.

[kimbosbread]

49 minutes ago, sburke said:

or as we might say today Russia is a plague infected rat, wrapped in a used Depends, stuffed into the rotting corpse of a Russian soldier left on the fields of Bakhmut.

So like a Turducken, but Corpse-diaper-rat!

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

So like a Turducken, but Corpse-diaper-rat!

a TurdPutin

[Kinophile]

A Poo-tin

 

[Vet 0369]

On 5/31/2023 at 7:44 AM, panzermartin said:

I don't know how the discussion derailed towards the Allied WW2 bombings but I'm sure it was the beyond suspicion poster Haiduk that firts mentioned the analogy. I don't think he has succumbed to russian influence. 

OK, I know. I’m very late the game, due to not reading the thread for a couple of days, BUT, when we have readers from backgrounds of ALL THE ANTAGONISTS of WW II, it’s bound to devolve into “I know I am, but so are you! WW II ended five years before I was born. I will wager that the Grand Parents of a majority of the posters weren’t even born when that war ended. It’s just like here in the U.S. where many people are “still fighting the Civil War” that ended 158 years ago. How about everyone sticking to the thread subject of the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine?