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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Russia responded by moving capable troops out of Ukraine, that is a win.  If Russia didn't, and suffered humiliation at the hands of a small number of Russian liberation forces, that's also a win.  There really is no way for Putin to come out ahead here. also a win

Steve

win-win-win

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Girkin, as usual, is making some of the most astute observations.  His position is similar to the one I just made about Russia's mistakes this winter, as well as his usual calls for command economic response, martial law, and various other fascist responses to stress. 

Girkin has been extremely astute. Agent murz too. Murz hasn’t written much lately unfortunately. Pity they are on the wrong side; they should get clemency for writing an accurate history of what’s going on on their side.

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5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Girkin has been extremely astute. Agent murz too. Murz hasn’t written much lately unfortunately. Pity they are on the wrong side; they should get clemency for writing an accurate history of what’s going on on their side.

Perhaps only hang them once?

Or sentence them to 98 years at Hard Labour rather than 99?

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1 minute ago, paxromana said:

Perhaps only hang them once?

Or sentence them to 98 years at Hard Labour rather than 99?

As we got yeeted into the full retard timeline in 2014ish by our favorite particle accelerator, I propose something more appropriate for this timeline: Punishment by forcing them to gain 150lbs each via sumo hotpot, and then jello wrestling, for several years.

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8 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

As we got yeeted into the full retard timeline in 2014ish by our favorite particle accelerator, I propose something more appropriate for this timeline: Punishment by forcing them to gain 150lbs each via sumo hotpot, and then jello wrestling, for several years.

Add in the persistent presence of a rabid squirrel in the middle of the jello wrestling arena and I think we've got ourselves a fair punishment!

Steve

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More attacks on Russian infrastructure deep within Russian territory:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1664500556059009024

There could be another component of Ukraine's attacks on Russian infrastructure... increase the cost of the war to the Russian Federal Government.  Blowing up something in Ukraine only hurts Russia to the extent they need it to conduct the war.  Which is why Russia is so unconcerned about destroying entire cities.  But an oil refinery on home soil?  That needs to get rebuilt and that is going to cost a lot of time and money that Russia could otherwise put into some other aspect of its war economy.

I'm not saying this is a primary goal of Ukraine's deep strikes, but I bet you anything that it is on their checklist when vetting targets.

Steve

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8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

An oil refinery on home soil?  That needs to get rebuilt and that is going to cost a lot of time and money that Russia could otherwise put into some other aspect of its war economy.

And supposedly the most critical part of that oil refinery! And the saphire glass plant in Shebekino! Sadly I don’t have a handy list of russian military industrial complex sites, but it seems like a lot of places have burned down or been destroyed over the last year and a half.

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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video from the 3rd Assault Brigade taking over positions littered with Russian corpses, some obviously rotting for months:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13xksco/video_from_the_soldiers_of_the_2nd_assault/

Steve

That foot path with the embankment to the left they walk along at the end looks like it is the same one from the videos of the attack against 72nd brigade a few weeks back to the south of Bakhmut. I distinctly the remember the killed Russian in the jacket (already wondering back then why the guy was wearing a white jacket in early May). I think these are casualties from that earlier fight, the Ukrainians just didn't bother removing the dead, or the area is still contested.

Edited by Rokko
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This night Russians conducted next combined air attack - 15 cruise missiles Kh-101/555/Kalibr and 21 Shakheds were launched. Most of them headed to Kyiv. All enemy objects were shot down. I was so sleepy, that even didn't wake up, when AD destroyed several targets over neighbour quarters %)

 Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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I don't know how is correct these assesments and what source of them, but let it be

I remind, according to latest GUR assesments Russia still capable to produce monthly about 25 Kalibrs, 35 Kh-101, 5 Iskander-M, 2 Kinzhals 

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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A storm shadow? I'm glad we also have the French version aka scalp in our arsenal. What makes this missile more capable to penetrate defenses than Kalibr that constantly gets shot down 99% of the times ? 

Apart from russian ineffectiveness and my suspicion that UA banning videos of strikes plays a role in hiding also successful hits of the Russians. 

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27 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

A storm shadow? I'm glad we also have the French version aka scalp in our arsenal. What makes this missile more capable to penetrate defenses than Kalibr that constantly gets shot down 99% of the times ? 

Apart from russian ineffectiveness and my suspicion that UA banning videos of strikes plays a role in hiding also successful hits of the Russians. 

There were plenty of strikes captured and uploaded daily while AD network wasnt working so well.

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6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

There were plenty of strikes captured and uploaded daily while AD network wasnt working so well.

Ukraine knows how to play the propaganda/psy-ops/PR game quite well and they will promote or ban footage depending on whether it fits their narrative (like probably every other country would, given the circumstances).

That said, in the day and age of smartphones and satellite internet it is difficult or even impossible to prevent information leaks. If you control the infrastructure you can block the usual platforms. But with readily available satellite internet you had better be an important market the tech companies can't afford to lose (and so will help you with all the censoring), like China.

 

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8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Doesn't the FSB already balance the MoD

The FSB does in normal times. After the beating it took for its failure to predict things accurately in Ukraine it was in a weakened position. As the primary institution to carry on the war, the MoD was strengthened. Wagner's enhanced status was Putin's response. https://cepa.org/article/vicious-blame-game-erupts-among-putins-security-forces/

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48 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

A storm shadow? I'm glad we also have the French version aka scalp in our arsenal. What makes this missile more capable to penetrate defenses than Kalibr that constantly gets shot down 99% of the times ? 

Apart from russian ineffectiveness and my suspicion that UA banning videos of strikes plays a role in hiding also successful hits of the Russians. 

Low RCS return, make it harder to be detected by AEW like A-50.

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54 minutes ago, Kraft said:

There were plenty of strikes captured and uploaded daily while AD network wasnt working so well.

I mean, it's not like the Ukrainians have every incentive to hide the extent of any damages caused. Not even for malicious/propoganda reasons, but just to not give the Russians free damage assessment. From that perspective, I don't think every UKR MOD can be safely considered to be 100% factual, even if it is a nuissance for those of us who are watching this war from afar as sort of an academic exercise.

Come to think of it, it would also make sense for them to say "Yep, you destroyed all our Patriots. Kyiv is totally defenseless, please don't send your strategic bombers directly overhead to carpet bomb us like you always say you want to".

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1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Correct, but I also think the instructions not to upload any strikes are also more recent? Last one I show was that hit supposedly  near the Patriot battery.

If something really hit, this usually became knowingly enough quickly through messages in Telegram local chats. Not videos, just mentions about "boom in place X". The same for occupied Donbas teritories. Though, official Air Forces statistic usually says about total number of launched missiles/UAVs and number of intercepted. But their statistic doesn't include territories close to frontline and in some reason S-300/S-400 missiles. For example in Monday, when officially 10 Iskanders were launched on Kyiv, number of realy launched Iskanders were 11 - one hit in Kupiansk. Photos of building damage in Kupiansk were issued officially, but this Iskander wasn't "counted" in strike statistic.   

Edited by Haiduk
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