How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Certainly Ukraine is making pushes to normalize attacking enemy positions closer to Moscow. One drone, now several, then maybe some explosions, very interesting, how Ukraine is approaching this. Is there a way to stop Ukraine from doing this "escalation"? 

Or maybe false flag attacks? Who knows at this point. Probably Ukraine i suppose. 

[dan/california]

58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Reports of some explosions near Moscow about an hour ago:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1663392862308913152

Looks like Syrian rebels killed a Russian GRU Colonel.  A reminder that Russia is still fighting in Syria:

Steve

The more interesting question is are the rebels suddenly getting some more help? If you are trying to turn the Russian's pain level up to max, you want to stress them in as many places as possible. Dead colonels are stressful.

[sburke]

Drones hit buildings in Moscow, several downed on approach to capital - officials (yahoo.com)

(Reuters) -Drones hit several buildings in Moscow causing "minor" damage and no serious injuries, with air defence systems also destroying several drones on their approach to the Russian capital, Russian officials said early on Tuesday,

"All emergency services of the city are at the scene of incidents," Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on his Telegram messaging channel.

Andrei Vorobyov, governor of the Moscow region, said on the Telegram channel that several drones were shot down on their approach to Moscow.

It was not immediately clear who launched the drones. Several of Russia's Telegram messaging channels reported that four to 10 drones were shot on the outskirts of Moscow and in its immediate region.

Sobyanin said that some residents were being evacuated.

Russia's RIA state news agency reported that some residents of a building on Moscow's Profsoyuznaya Street in the city's south were being evacuated.

[Kinophile]

9 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Russia hits military base in Ukraine in new wave of strikes
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hits-military-facility-ukraine-new-wave-strikes-2023-05-29/

 

What really matters is which aircraft. Losing the few SU-24s right now (even just 2 of them), the only UKR planes that can carry Storm Shadows, would be a very unwelcome development.

[Ales Dvorak]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The context of what I said was that the NATO intervention stopped a genocide in progress pretty quickly and with relatively little effort on behalf of the NATO force.  So yeah, it worked out pretty well and is still working out pretty well.  Perfect?  Of course not. This is just one violent demonstration.  Most European nations see a couple of these every year, or more, and the US just had a pretty damned big one.  So I have no idea what your point is, but it doesn't seem to be very relevant or particularly useful.

Steve

O, I see. Mea culpa.

Vučić announced today that he will meet with the ambassadors of the USA, Italy, France, Germany, UK and later with Finland, China and Russia.

Maybe we can agree that this demonstration in Kosovo is a little bit different from demonstrations in the EU and USA.

Edited May 30, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[kraze]

Shot down 15 drones out of 25. Meaning 10 did strike. Each of these carries 30 Kgs of explosive.

"Minor damage and no serious injuries"

[Holien]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Minor damage and no serious injuries

I hope Ukraine is targeting military targets in Moscow as otherwise it is a pointless exercise and could weaken support.

Surely they would have been better deployed against the forces launching attacks on Ukraine. But until we know the targets in Moscow I guess it is just a feeling of unease that Ukraine is wasting precious military strike capability.

[paxromana]

40 minutes ago, Holien said:

Surely they would have been better deployed against the forces launching attacks on Ukraine. But until we know the targets in Moscow I guess it is just a feeling of unease that Ukraine is wasting precious military strike capability.

I guess that Ukrainian Intelligence has sources in Russia and may think that this will ratchet up unease at Putin's Folly?

[Joe982]

Ukrain doesn't have the ammo to waste bombing the suburbs of Moscow. It's somebody else doing this.

[Fenris]

Probably the Spanish Inquisition, because you know, no one expects that.

[panzermartin]

With the unlimited ammount of material Ukraine is getting from all over the globe they can easily do this everyday if they like. 

[Kraft]

23 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

With the unlimited ammount of material Ukraine is getting from all over the globe they can easily do this everyday if they like. 

What a quality assessment.

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, Kraft said:

What a quality assessment.

Thanks 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Joe982 said:

Ukrain doesn't have the ammo to waste bombing the suburbs of Moscow. It's somebody else doing this.

We don´t know who is responsible for that, but it would make no sense (IMHO) for UKR doing it. They have more important targets to eliminate in the occupied areas.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

With the unlimited ammount of material Ukraine is getting from all over the globe they can easily do this everyday if they like. 

Soon, we will see valiant citizens of Moscow city collectivelly digging anti-drone ditches, singing patriotic songs. But if NATO provoke them even more, and one more window will be hit by drone with 25 kg warhead, they will raze their city to the ground like it was 1812. Ukrainians shouldn't escalate and surrender.

 

Nationalistic Russians are of course showing another example of psychosis coming from wounded imperial hubris that defies western perspective:

 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Beleg85

[poesel]

A salvo of HIMARS costs about 600,000 (IIRC). If you spread that to 25 drones, that is 24,000 per drone. I guess the per drone costs for Ukraine for a homemade product is less than that. Especially since they have full access to all necessary material.

So yes, Ukraine could easily do this every day. They shouldn't, and they won't, but they could.
But the secondary effects are well worth doing this at least once.

Edited May 30, 2023 by poesel

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

So yes, Ukraine could easily do this every day. They shouldn't, and they won't, but they could.
But the secondary effects are well worth doing this at least once.

There are of course obvious production limitations at play, and we don't know what type of drone was/were used. Remains of j-22 were reportedly found but these are rumours for now.

Moral effect is pirceless, though; let's hope it was calibrated accordingly with other operations to shake up Russian public and not just for show.

Btw. look how much effort they put to hide this Pantsir:

 

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There are of course obvious production limitations at play, and we don't know what type of drone was/were used. Remains of j-22 were reportedly found but these are rumours for now.

Moral effect is pirceless, though; let's hope it was calibrated accordingly with other operations to shake up Russian public and not just for show.

Btw. look how much effort they put to hide this Pantsir:

 

Budanov in the last two days said he would retaliate for Russian strikes on Kyiv. Of course Ukraine did this and the attack on the Kremlin was proof of concept. Some of the drones have already been identified as UJ-22's. 

My thesis has been for a while that the war on the Russian side has become primarily about retaining or gaining power in Moscow. This is nothing more or less than a Ukraine shaping operation on that front.

[Kraft]

58 minutes ago, poesel said:

A salvo of HIMARS costs about 600,000 (IIRC). If you spread that to 25 drones, that is 24,000 per drone. I guess the per drone costs for Ukraine for a homemade product is less than that. Especially since they have full access to all necessary material.

So yes, Ukraine could easily do this every day. They shouldn't, and they won't, but they could.
But the secondary effects are well worth doing this at least once.

Production and procurement are the issues, money moves these factors but with diminishing returns and hard physical limits.

Btw, if anyone here has a 3d printer you can send fins, tails and bodies for drone dropped munitions (VOG, M430,..), these are always needed. 

All info is in subreddit /r/Fins4UA

Edited May 30, 2023 by Kraft

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Joe982 said:

Ukrain doesn't have the ammo to waste bombing the suburbs of Moscow. It's somebody else doing this.

Nah, who else should that be? If it was Russia they would have chosen a target that causes outrage and spread footage of the victims all over the planet. A school full of children, for instance. Of course you can never rule out terrorists but I don't see a state actor apart from Ukraine or Russia profiting from it.

Russia doesn't hold the monopoly on stupidity and I'm sure Ukraine is just as capable as anyone else to do a military pointless and even possibly counterproductive operation with the usual justifications. Boosting morale at home (which would make some sense), hoping to undermine the enemy's morale, support of their leaders, you name it.

 

[Bearstronaut]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

We don´t know who is responsible for that, but it would make no sense (IMHO) for UKR doing it. They have more important targets to eliminate in the occupied areas.

The Doolittle Raid didn't make much sense and did negligible damage but it rattled the Japanese public. I sense that this was done for a similar reason.

[kraze]

32 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Russia doesn't hold the monopoly on stupidity and I'm sure Ukraine is just as capable as anyone else to do a military pointless and even possibly counterproductive operation with the usual justifications. Boosting morale at home (which would make some sense), hoping to undermine the enemy's morale, support of their leaders, you name it.

 

You've been waiting for a justification for victim blaming yourself for almost 1.5 years now and it's not happening today either.

[FancyCat]

I think striking Moscow is quite important. One, restoring Ukrainian morale is quite important. Two, illustrating to the privileged portions of Russian society that they are not immune to war, and three, of which I consider most important, gradual erosion of Russian "red lines". Ukraine is slowly, inexorably moving towards a state of war that is prepping Russia, the West and the world for Russia's defeat.

A winning country does not get their capital drone striked. A winning country is definitely not winning if that occurs over and over again. And I'm sure there are plenty of military targets in Moscow to hit like Air Defense.

 

 

[Holien]

15 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

rattled the Japanese public

For FA effect on the public and absolutely pointless. We have numerous posts saying why bombing Civies and cities in Ukraine are counter productive to Russia. 

Unless Ukraine had specific military targets of worth in Moscow then imo they would be better to focus on less defended military targets. Russian military Planes sat on runways perhaps?

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Russia doesn't hold the monopoly on stupidity and I'm sure Ukraine is just as capable as anyone else to do a military pointless and even possibly counterproductive operation with the usual justifications. Boosting morale at home (which would make some sense), hoping to undermine the enemy's morale, support of their leaders, you name it.

In small doses and applied carefully it may be very beneficial for Ukraine, much more than (admiteddly shady) acts of assassinations on Russian nats. Russia is regime based on political passivity of its citizens as main Kremlin resource, with superiority complexes adequate to its size and history heavily dwelling on triumphant propaganda. This is obvious hole in this wall.

We should pair it with real sanctions againts Russian elites, though- not only named, but all. When they won't be able to go to vacations, at least in Europe, they would finally wake up and understand level of swamp they wandered in. Instead we are far from it, unfortunatelly.

Edited May 30, 2023 by Beleg85