How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Expanded information from the "Pointer of Death" POW video I posted a couple of pages ago.  It includes English translation of Madyar's video plus new footage.  It supposedly took place in Pervomiaskoye:

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 5/19/2023 at 7:27 PM, dan/california said:

Wagner needs to be hunted the way ISIS and Al Qaeda have been hunted. If they have a compound somewhere in Africa, it goes boom.

The best part is, since they aren't officially part of the MoD, hunting them isn't technically an act of war against the Russian government!

[Centurian52]

On 5/19/2023 at 10:29 PM, kevinkin said:

Or talking head? Give us a break. Please. If the deal looks good that means Putin is out. Take it. She is just another Princeton grad who knows little about the real world. I run into these freaks all the time.

 “If we just stop for a ceasefire, Russia wins because Russia has gained, illegally, territory that it has seized, and that is a problem,” Yovanovitch said. 

And this is a person that might wear diapers to bed. Like POTUS. I hope the women has no influence on anything.  

She's right though. You don't really think that the Ukrainians should stop before driving the Russians out of all Ukrainian territory, do you? This war has to end with all Ukrainian territory being returned to Ukraine. Regardless of whether Putin is still in charge or not, we have to assume that Russian leadership will not honor any agreement that is made with them.

[Centurian52]

On 5/20/2023 at 12:34 AM, Bulletpoint said:

So, it seems Bakhmut has finally fallen.

At least according to latest update from Deepstate, the last highrise buildings have now been coloured in red.

It seems the very definition of a pyrrhic victory.

I heard the same thing. Even if they have taken every building within the city limits though, it's still far too early for them to declare victory in Bakhmut. Generally speaking, battles for cities are rarely (if ever) confined to the limits of the contested city (as TIK has persistently reminded us, the Germans took most of their casualties in the Battle of Stalingrad outside the city itself). The battle of Bakhmut is still very much ongoing, and I think the Russians are going to lose this one.

[Centurian52]

On 5/20/2023 at 3:14 AM, The_Capt said:

Huh?  Didn’t we just hear that the UA was pushing back at Bakhmut by kms?  Now it has fallen?

I think most of that was outside the city itself though, on the northern and southern flanks.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

This is very important issue.

I also don't think Russian command will be stupid enough to take the bait and relocate frontline forces toward the border- at least judging by milbloggers, they are perfectly aware why Ukraine is conducting this kind of operations, so will probably keep their cards close to them, just in case. Unless highest political factor would kick in, which isn't impossible. Or maybe they will try to create some air-mobile counter force for quick deployment.

But inter-service rivalry between various Russian state organizations may rage up even more. Already, in the words of one of our russianists (guys who deal with Russia, but not from military standpoint) in Russian popular narrations there are more visible accusations of treason/bribery between supporters of various groups, reminescent of Budionnovsk security failures, which reportedly sits deeply inside Russian collective psyche as a symbol. References to these events are appearing more oftne than 6 months ago.

She suggested that for example one of most popular versions of events when 4 airframes were shot down lately is still "Ukrainian sabotage groups with manpads", and it is because it can be used by various coteries in Russia to internal blame game (note, nobody was captured afterwards not any such group eliminated as far as we know). Budionnovsk and similar events also brings memories of blatant corruption and treason.

Today's attack can also be framed along those lines (if we read Girkinoids carefully)- somebody bought somebody, competences between military, security and police operation get blurred. That may also be Ukraine win in longer term, as muscovite psyche was always susceptible to this kind of disbelief in own instiitutions.

 

Beating my usual drum on this...I would suggest that what is militarily sound will take a back seat to what is politically necessary in Moscow. That goes beyond what Girkin and his ilk commentate and gets at who can knife who to Putin. If events in Belgogrod get embarrassing enough...and it's already pretty embarrassing for the Kremlin that it had to threaten to nuke it's own city to defend the Motherland...you will see the political necessities diverting efforts better spent elsewhere. As the Capt likes to say...war is communication...and this war has consistently been about communicating to Russians that their reactionary dictatorship isn't going anywhere.

[Fenris]

Real?  Having russian refugees displaced inside russia is going to be a real headache for the regime me thinks

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Fenris

[Kinophile]

5 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Real?  Having russian refugees displaced inside russia is going to be a real headache for the regime me thinks

 

Real,  ppl fleeting the fighting. But its tiny potatoes right now. Easily absorbed within the Oblast and unlikely to become unmanageable. 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Real,  ppl fleeting the fighting. But its tiny potatoes right now. Easily absorbed within the Oblast and unlikely to become unmanageable. 

the visual though is pretty bad, but hey "everything is going according to plan". 

[sburke]

Lukashenko to visit Putin to discuss "problems in relations" (yahoo.com)

heh this will be an interesting discussion.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Beating my usual drum on this...I would suggest that what is militarily sound will take a back seat to what is politically necessary in Moscow. That goes beyond what Girkin and his ilk commentate and gets at who can knife who to Putin. If events in Belgogrod get embarrassing enough...and it's already pretty embarrassing for the Kremlin that it had to threaten to nuke it's own city to defend the Motherland...you will see the political necessities diverting efforts better spent elsewhere. As the Capt likes to say...war is communication...and this war has consistently been about communicating to Russians that their reactionary dictatorship isn't going anywhere.

Oh, no doubts Putin's will may overcome opinion of military. But unless those raids will repeat itself, and in numbers, they will most probably be able to explain it to him that they have sufficent forces at hand to protect border, which maybe only needs some slight adjustments/support from security services. Let's remember Kherson, when military prudence ultimatelly overcome political prestige matters.

[sburke]

Russian opposition group posts video of what appears to be an antiwar flag above Moscow following purported cross-border raid (yahoo.com)

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

You don't really think that the Ukrainians should stop before driving the Russians out of all Ukrainian territory, do you?

That depends on the manpower costs involved and the overall situation if and when Putin makes some kind of offer. Is taking back every inch of ground worth 10,000 more lives?. Or would something less than that allow Ukraine to rebuild, thrive and protect itself and retake what it might need at a later date. But this is not going to be an option until the UA takes back more of their country anyway. Destroys more of the RA and gets more equipment and training. I think no one is going to trust Russia. So I don't think the ex-ambassador added much. It goes without saying in other words. It would show more insight to say Ukraine should keep their strategic options open and best interests in mind. They will. Borders may nice to regain, but starting the rebuilding process might be better in the long run if everyone knows Russian lost big time. Symbols are nice, but maybe a more defensible border will require taking some Russian soil and in exchange for some Ukrainian soil. So the war does not have to stop exactly where it started. It stops when Russia is defeated. This approach it not passive nor aggressive, just practical. BTW, on another side topic, I saw folks are now thinking of the Israel type security model long term. Not sure if that is just a one off idea or serious. 

Edited May 23, 2023 by kevinkin

[Seminole]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Lukashenko to visit Putin to discuss "problems in relations" (yahoo.com)

heh this will be an interesting discussion.

Dovetails interestingly with this news I saw earlier today:

 

A Belarusian opposition activist arrested after his Ryanair flight was forced to land in the capital Minsk has said he has been pardoned.

Roman Protasevich was hauled off his flight and arrested on charges of inciting unrest in May 2021.

Earlier this month, he was sentenced to eight years in prison.

He thanked authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko for the pardon, amid questions as to whether he was forced to make pro-regime statements.

 

In a video released by state news agency Belta, Mr Protasevich said he had just signed "appropriate documents" for his pardon.

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Real?  Having russian refugees displaced inside russia is going to be a real headache for the regime me thinks

 

Haha, just reminds me TOAW. There is a special event called refugee, refugee clogging the road.  If that happens the supply point drops and movement cost double by two. Looks like right now in Belgord the movement penalty should multiple by 10. 

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Oh, no doubts Putin's will may overcome opinion of military. But unless those raids will repeat itself, and in numbers, they will most probably be able to explain it to him that they have sufficent forces at hand to protect border, which maybe only needs some slight adjustments/support from security services. Let's remember Kherson, when military prudence ultimatelly overcome political prestige matters.

Perhaps the pressure of the continuous raids will push him adopt a "brilliant idea" that he believes can simultaneously alleviate political pressure and meet military needs in further south, that is another round of mobilization (good luck with that).

[danfrodo]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I also don't think Russian command will be stupid enough to take the bait and relocate frontline forces toward the border- at least judging by milbloggers, they are perfectly aware why Ukraine is conducting this kind of operations, so will probably keep their cards close to them, just in case.

Dangit, BillBinDC & Beleg85 beat me to it.  Domestic optics will trump military needs if this gets to be embarrassing.  Putin will be shouting on the phone "hunt them down and kill them!  I don't care what it takes but you have one week or you'll be in a front line trench!".  Maybe Prig will volunteer to have Wagner hunt them down, for some price.  Then he'll just kill whoever and put them in a uniform and pretend problem solved.  Heck, he's got enough dead bodies laying around, he just needs to dress them up right.

This is quite the psyops, though.  Hopefully everyone in the oblast will think they're under attack, as many of them clearly already do from the traffic jam.

 

[JonS]

Are we sure that's a "get me the hell out of here" traffic jam, and not just "normal Monday morning rush hour in Belgorod" traffic jam?

[kevinkin]

That's funny. 

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, JonS said:

Are we sure that's a "get me the hell out of here" traffic jam, and not just "normal Monday morning rush hour in Belgorod" traffic jam?

nah it is an "ack the mobilization thugs are in town, time to go visit relatives elsewhere" traffic jam

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

Russian opposition group posts video of what appears to be an antiwar flag above Moscow following purported cross-border raid (yahoo.com)

Ilya Ponomarev needs to double whatever security he had prior to the incursion.  Russia is going to be looking to take him out.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Oh, no doubts Putin's will may overcome opinion of military. But unless those raids will repeat itself, and in numbers, they will most probably be able to explain it to him that they have sufficent forces at hand to protect border, which maybe only needs some slight adjustments/support from security services. Let's remember Kherson, when military prudence ultimatelly overcome political prestige matters.

It comes down to whether Putin thinks MoD and security forces can squash the raids quickly enough.  If the answer is yes, it is unlikely forces will be moved from within Ukraine.  If the answer is no, then VDV and other units will be moved from wherever to Belgorod.

I don't see this raid lasting very long.  However, these guys sure did study 2014 very thoroughly before they went in:

I'm not sure how concerned Putin is about his flimsy excuses for invading Ukraine being used against the Russian Federation, but at the very least he has to be burning with rage over being shown up in such a way.  It is like a conman finding someone performing the same con, except by comedians who relish irony.

Here's what ISW has to say about the incursion:

Quote

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22. Russian sources began reporting on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK and LSR consisting of two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles crossed the international border and captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of Belgorod Oblast within 600 meters of the border with Sumy Oblast.[1] Several Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively), although some milbloggers disputed claims that the attack completely captured Glotovo or Gora Podol, instead reporting that RDK forces only got to the Glotovo House of Culture.[2] ISW has not yet observed geolocated confirmation that the RDK or LSR reached Glotovo or Gora Podol. Geolocated footage posted on May 22 does confirm that the RDK struck a border post near Kozinka before crossing the border with at least one tank.[3] The RDK also posted footage reportedly showing the body of a Russian border guard in a border station, likely from the border crossing near Kozinka.[4] Russian milbloggers later claimed that Russian troops retook control of all three settlements.[5]  Some Russian sources additionally reported that Russian forces repelled pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups near Dronovka, about 22km northwest of Kozinka.[6] The RDK additionally posted footage reportedly outside two settlements near the border area in Bryansk Oblast, but the nature of this incursion is unclear and ISW has not observed additional evidence or discourse surrounding actions in Bryansk Oblast on May 22.[7]

Let's take a step back and look at the big picture:

1. Ukraine can say it's not involved, but we all know that's as untrue as Russia's claims in 2014.
2. The size of the RDK/LSR force is too small to stay in Russia for too long.  Russia has enough forces in the immediate area and in FSB reserve to handle them relatively quickly.  Couple of days maximum before they withdraw, a week if Russian forces are even less capable than I think they are.  For all we know it might already be over.
3. I doubt Ukraine or RDK/LSR can expand in any way that will have an impact on Russian terror attacks on Kyiv.
4. I doubt the RDK/LSR forces believe they really can overthrow Russian authority in the region.  For that there would have to be the equivalent of what Russia orchestrated in Ukraine in 2014, which took years and massive effort to achieve.
5. The RDK/LSR are unlikely to have any notable allies within Russia, which means a sympathetic response by another group at any notable level is highly unlikely.
6. Domestically Putin has a problem, but that problem is not distinctly linked to this one event.  This is just another straw on the already weak back of Putin's camel.  When the back is broken there won't be any single straw that caused it.  Which is to say that this event is survivable for Putin as long as a powerful group doesn't decide this is their moment to act.

What do we think the goals of this incursion are?  Here's what I see in no particular order:

1. Show the Russian people how inept and ill prepared Putin's regime is at defending its borders.
2. Give power blocs within Russia more reasons to make contingency plans and/or fight amongst themselves.
3. Humiliate Russia by using the same 2014 tactics as they used on Ukraine.
4. Cause significant distraction within the Russian chain of command at a critical time.
5. Rattle Russian confidence ahead of the counter offensive even more than it already is.
6. Rob Russia of it's ability to leverage Bakhmut "victory" propaganda.
7. Take out key EW/AD systems that Russia will find very difficult to replace.
8. Draw resources away from the frontlines in Ukraine to shore up the Russian border.

I think they have achieved 1-7 already with #8 unknown to us at this point.

Sometimes the appetizers for a great meal can sometimes be as awesome as the main course.  This might be the case here!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Did anybody note a Mi-24 being shot down yesterday near New York (the Ukrainian one, of course):

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3712641-in-donetsk-region-ukrainian-defenders-down-enemy-mi24-with-igla-manpads.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Question for anybody, but especially Haiduk... how sure are we that the RDK/LSR are ethnic Russians?  Some, including Girkin, think it is Kraken as they have not been out promoting their exploits recently.  They were on the forefront of the Kharkiv counter offensive last year, so it wouldn't be surprising to have them lead an attack into Russia.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

6 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

I heard the same thing. Even if they have taken every building within the city limits though, it's still far too early for them to declare victory in Bakhmut. Generally speaking, battles for cities are rarely (if ever) confined to the limits of the contested city (as TIK has persistently reminded us, the Germans took most of their casualties in the Battle of Stalingrad outside the city itself). The battle of Bakhmut is still very much ongoing, and I think the Russians are going to lose this one.

I only meant to say that the city has now finally been taken by the Russians, all 5 km of it, after nearly 10 months of hard and wasteful fighting. The battle for the city is of course not over as long as the Ukrainians have anything to fight with.

But if I were the UKR command, I would not invest my forces in retaking it at this moment. It's completely destroyed and would only serve propaganda purposes to retake. The push on the flanks seems to have only been intended to help the last defenders evacuate.

[Kinophile]

12 hours ago, sross112 said:

so lack of AT assets. 

This always blows my mind. I've long been under the impression that the RPG7 etc is as common as dirt. 

Everywhere,  it seems,  except the army it was designed for.