How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Rare Mi-8 and now even more rare...BTW if understood that correctly then the location of the Mi-8 crashsite is about 50km distance from the ukrainian border. Makes you wonder what got him?

 

 

See above, Russians claim that was UKR fighters ambush with launches near the border 

[Haiduk]

3rd separate mot.inf battalion of 24th mech.brigade now in Bakhmut and share some aerial photos

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Huba]

There are some speculations/ suggestions that the 4 aircraft that were shot down were in fact one group on a strike mission. Su-34 was carrying the gliding bombs destined for Chernihiv, Su-35 was providing fighter escort and choppers EW support. Makes sense in my opinion, similar strikes were being reported since some time. RU flying these missions repeatedly would be asking for an ambush to happen - add some new capability on UA side (either new SAMs or A2A missiles) and you have a recipe for disaster.

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

See above, Russians claim that was UKR fighters ambush with launches near the border 

Ugh, sorry I missed that. Looked up about the AIM-120 AMRAAM. Impressive! Yes I know wikipedia, jada jada, nevertheless 160km is impressive!

The AIM-120D is an upgraded^[when?] version of the AMRAAM with improvements in almost all areas, including 50% greater range (than the already-extended range AIM-120C-7) and better guidance over its entire flight envelope yielding an improved kill probability (P_k). Raytheon began testing the D model on August 5, 2008, the company reported that an AIM-120D launched from an F/A-18F Super Hornet passed within lethal distance of a QF-4 target drone at the White Sands Missile Range.^[37] The range of the AIM-120D is classified, but is thought to extend to about 100 miles (160 km).^[38]

AIM-120 AMRAAM - Wikipedia

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Su-35 was providing fighter escort

Su-35 usually conduct both fighter escort and strike mission simultainously, because it also can carry guided bombs, including newest UPAB. 

Yesterday Russians tried to destroy the bridge through Snov river in Chernihiv oblast near Karpovychi village, but looks like guided bomb hit close and only slightly damaged the bridge

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

That what developing now around Bakhmut is not classical WWII offensive operation with tactical elements not less than battalion or regiment. Despite you hear "3rd assault brigade" or "80th air-assault brigade", etc, indeed this is operation of dozens small pushes of small assault groups on the level of companies under battalion command. Russians in the same way hold multiple dispersed positions of squad/platoon size. So it's not quite coorect to compare this with WWII

If you look at twitter post originally cited, perhaps you will understand why I said what I did. 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

See above, Russians claim that was UKR fighters ambush with launches near the border 

How likely is it:

a) For Russian air defense to **** up and start sweeping the skies of everything because they think Storm Shadows are inbound

vs.

b) The Ukrainians set up an elaborate SAM trap to catch some special helicopters flying on the other side of the border?

I mean, come on, let's be serious. 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

a) For Russian air defense to **** up and start sweeping the skies of everything because they think Storm Shadows are inbound

But AD should expect missiles from UKR border, but not from own rear %) 

[panzermartin]

If the planes were on their way home the friendly fire scenario would be more plausible. But apparently they were not. 

[Haiduk]

Just now, panzermartin said:

If the planes were on their way home the friendly fire scenario would be more plausible. But apparently they were not. 

Also no smoke trail behind something, what hit helicopter, so this wasn't SA-missile.

[Eddy]

10 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

How likely is it:

a) For Russian air defense to **** up and start sweeping the skies of everything because they think Storm Shadows are inbound

vs.

b) The Ukrainians set up an elaborate SAM trap to catch some special helicopters flying on the other side of the border?

I mean, come on, let's be serious. 

Put like that my money's on b. Russian AD is one of the few things that seems to have got better. If it was one aircraft shot down, maybe, but not four, with two being slow moving helicopters.

Maybe the Ukrainians have got better capabilities, maybe the Russians got sloppy. Who knows

But it doesn't really matter what I think. What matters is what the Russian's know. If it was there own AD, then lessons learned. If it was Ukrainian something or other, then they'll have to change their behaviour.

The one thing I can say with absolute certainty - it wasn't me!

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

There is even more good news today -it  seems that the Swiss will finally lift ban on delivery of their weapons to Ukraine! It means ammunition for Gepards, but more importantly Aspide/ Spada/ SkyGuard SHORADs from Italy and Spain can finally be sent too. These are quite numerous and slated for replacement anyway - just a thing to announce during Zelensky's visit in Rome today  
https://de.euronews.com/2023/05/12/schweiz-waffenlieferungen

So we have any Swiss insiders here? 

Does this actually mean anything in practice? For example, the US passed the lend-lease Act for Ukraine and has yet to use it. Because the legislation was not driven top-to-bottom but bottom-to-top by Congress.

Is this the Swiss government making a change in the Swiss foreign policy or something else, for example, parliament trying to put pressure on the government and failing?

[womble]

This demonstration of new capability (if it is longer ranged missiles, rather than just clever tactical use of existing ones) by the UKR AF is important for the upcoming offensive. If they can engage Air-to-Air at that range, they're back to being able to (?more than?) compete on an element-by-element basis, and that could make any Russian CAS missions sent to stop breakthroughs much more risky than they had previously considered them to be. Even if this was a special circumstance, it has to feature in their risk analysis for future missions. Might mean standing off further from the target, at least, or greater weight of EWAR needing to be committed to any given mission, either of which could degrade the effectiveness of Russia's "airpower as artillery" approach even more than their sclerotic C4ISR arrangements would.

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

So we have any Swiss insiders here? 

Does this actually mean anything in practice? For example, the US passed the lend-lease Act for Ukraine and has yet to use it. Because the legislation was not driven top-to-bottom but bottom-to-top by Congress.

Is this the Swiss government making a change in the Swiss foreign policy or something else, for example, parliament trying to put pressure on the government and failing?

https://apnews.com/article/switzerland-military-exports-russia-ukraine-war-71e2ff66bcb90be0315517b23c82afb4

At least here seems to be a case of slow gradualism:

"The measure is now expected to go to the broader parliament next month, although Salzmann said any changes would not take effect before March 2024 at the earliest.

The commission approved two separate motions that, if approved, would allow the executive branch to lift some restrictions on the export of weaponry and war materiel “in exceptional circumstances” and if required to ensure national security.

Another motion said the law on the export of war materiel could also be adapted to allow deliveries to countries “that are committed to our values” and have similar export controls to Switzerland, a text provided by the commission said.

Buyer countries could re-export Swiss-made weapons after five years within certain parameters. Re-export to countries that “severely” violate human rights would be banned, and the risk that the weapons could be used against civilians would have to be averted."

 

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile in parallel reality

Headline of article "Ukrainain army living out last days" - interview of "Komsomolskaya Pravda" with retired spetsnaz colonel, who claims this, because "UKR top-command eliminated and troops now without command"

[paxromana]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Meanwhile in parallel reality

Headline of article "Ukrainain army living out last days" - interview of "Komsomolskaya Pravda" with retired spetsnaz colonel, who claims this, because "UKR top-command eliminated and troops now without command"

Mirror imaging. That's what would happen to Ruzzians under those circumstances ... 

Phil

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

RU soldiers being delivered to a treeline with regular trucks, not even up-armored mad max ones.  I thought RU had a zillion BMPs.

They did.

[Huba]

There's some incoming info about Klischivka being liberated. If it's true, it means that the whole "pincer" south of Bakhmut is no more. Prigozhin has to be pissed

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1657414995167133698

Edited May 13, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

RU soldiers being delivered to a treeline with regular trucks, not even up-armored mad max ones.  I thought RU had a zillion BMPs.

It's a real problem for new established units and not only for motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops, which are "motor-rifle" mostly on paper. Even new units in composition of Army have a lack of armor. 

One of accidents - five mobiks of some regional unit of Altay region were killed, when their UAZ-452 "Bukhanka" was hit - they used it like personnel carrier, because their unit hasn't enough armor.  And even this UAZ wasn't from military stocks, but was donated by civilians.

 

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's some incoming info about Klischivka being liberated. If it's true, it means that the whole "pincer" south of Bakhmut is no more. Prigozhin has to be pissed

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1657414995167133698

Prigozyn already threaten with "soldiers riot", which "will tear as**..oles of those, who betrayed them". Today was issued his audio.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Well, that was an interesting read for this morning!

My take on the downing of the Russian aircraft from the discussion here is that they were, indeed, part of a single strike group and that the West has explicitly carved out a territorial exception for Ukraine's use of Western weaponry.  Specifically, if it's in the air and is clearly on its way to send death to Ukrainian civilians, have at it.  Messaging from Western leaders over the past few weeks seems to have been hinting at this.  Brits in particular made some comments in the last week that perked my ears up (and I noted it somewhere here).

Now, as to what took out the aircraft... Ukraine's ground based air defenses do not appear to have been used as there is no evidence of launches or interceptions from Russian AD.  MANPADs smuggled into Russia... well... maybe a helicopter or two, but 4 aircraft including 2 fast movers?  No, I doubt that very much.  So we're left with Ukraine's airforce taking them out from the air.  And that means something like AIM-120 is the top suspect.

I like the theory that one of the reasons for the seemingly slow delivery of the last batch of Soviet era fighters is that they were being modified to use AIM-120.  There is no engineering reason why this wouldn't work, it just needed time and money.  I expect in the coming days or weeks we'll see confirmation of this, but until then I'm very content with this explanation.

Now for the fun part... implications!

Remember all the people that were fretting about Russian air power potentially ruining an otherwise great Ukrainian advance deep into occupied territory?  It was a weak argument to start with, now I think the nails are being driven into the coffin.  Russia now has a serious threat to counter and it has so far shown itself unable to rise to such challenges in the past. 

Storm Shadow will probably continue to be used against supply nodes, but I do expect that when Ukraine is ready for it the based in Crimea are going to get some unpleasant special deliveries.  Likewise, I think the Black Sea Fleet is going to be hit in some way, probably Storm Shadow and more suicide drone boats.  Maybe some other surprise such as fast, light ships armed with Neptune and Harpoon that can operate safely due to the lack of air cover out of Crimea.

Russia is going to have to decide how many aircraft it can afford to risk and what they are willing to risk them for.  Terrorizing civilians, as they have been doing, is likely off the menu for now.  They are also going to have to decide if they need to relocate the Crimean aircraft to bases further into Russia.  Doing so means the Black Sea is extremely vulnerable.  That opens up all kinds of possibilities.  Including amphibious assaults along the southern coastline of occupied Kherson!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Prigozyn already threaten with "soldiers riot", which "will tear ***...les of those who betrayed them". Today was issued his audio.

Excellent!  It's always nice when the rabid dogs go after their master.  It puts the dog and the master into a rather uncomfortable and unpleasant situation.

Steve

[Lethaface]

9 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

Nice package. That's more RCH 155 than the total Pzh2000 Germany has send so far AFAIK. 

[Lethaface]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Finally got to watching the last (for now) K2 video of "Cyclops"

 

There's something I've seen over and over again in these clearing ops.  I'm curious why they throw grenades around a corner or into a bunker and then wait to do something after.  I'm thinking the best time to do something is the second after the grenade has detonated.  What that something is would be tailored to the situation, of course, but something other than falling back and repeating.  Obviously harder to coordinate with a grenade drop from a drone, so I'm mostly talking about the guys right there with the grenade. 

Thoughts from the pros?

Steve

Not storming bunkers for pay either, but I thought there was still outgoing fire coming from the bunker and that was why they didn't move for the clear. Also 'they' was like 1 guy throwing the grenades around the corner, he threw them pretty nice though, with the rest of the troops being further back / dispersed.
The bunker also turned out larger than I first thought it was; at first I also expected them to creep forward with grenades like they were doing, and storm/clear the bunker. One of those drone dropped grenade seemed to degrade the position but not necessarily taking out that guy with his mug on drone footage, even though he seemed to be exactly where that grenade went off and I thought I saw some blood on his face. But he was still fighting later.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Lethaface

[The_MonkeyKing]

The offensive of the Third Assault Brigade or how the 72nd Brigade of the Russian Federation "fled" from Bakhmut TEASER

 

looks to be a darn goldmine of footage to come