How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Their training centers together with Belarusian are unable to train more than 250-300 000 men in two months.

And last I heard those training centers won't be available until June, when they will finally be done with the spring conscription cycle.

[womble]

49 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

"Everyone's leaving my shiddy police state that's leaving everyone futureless and impoverished! Nobody loves dear leader?What ever will we do to fix it?" 

It would be funny if it wasn't tragic 

Or:

"All these people are leaving. My job is to tell people to do something to make them stop leaving. I have done that. If people keep leaving, I will have someone shot. That'll get the best results out of the ones that are left. Job done. I remain a master strategist."

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

Don't you think that if UA is going to maintain surprise, the opening push should be hot and heavy. I don't think there will be any doubt that operations have kicked off but there should be a good number of strikes on Logistics and C&C wherever the low hanging fruit is before things get going.

That is something I was pondering in my head since some time. To quote @The_Capt "...precision beats mass, massed precision beats everything". The actual main UA push (if there's one) will have to follow this principle. Some kind of "Shock and Awe", with the goal of the RU house of cards falling apart after a hearty kick being the goal. We can be sure of mass artillery strikes, HIMARSing everything worth expending a rocket, and GLSDB/ SS strikes on everything not in GMLRS range. I'm sure we are about to see the most intense concentration of firepower yet in this war.

17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ok, this rude, but... 

I shall shortly delete... 

The Dildo of Consequences seldom arrives lubed, to quote the NAFO doctrine

Edited May 12, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Some words about Bakhmut and around from UKR TGs. 

Inside the city, UKR troops repelled two heavy assaults on school and kindergarden in Korsunskoho str. area and even could slightly advance in kindergarden area. Though, Wagners still assault, but interest detail - their own arty alsmot completely shut up. Instead them Russian VDV and Ground Forces arty works very intensively, but mostly not on the city, but on logistic routes and close rears. 

UKR troops continue pressure from three sides on part of Ivanivskyi forest, held by the enemy. 3rd assault and 80th air-assault brigades have some successes. 

On the northern flank elements of 36th marines brigade reportedly arrived - likely thanking to their attacks Russians withdrew on several kilometers. 

Our soldiers reported they spotted first "Kadyrov's troops", but unclear where it happened and in which way - contact or radio-interceptions 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

or just propaganda video purposes? 

 

 

[dan/california]

They have made it clear to the Russians, and the rest of the world, that they are never taking Bakmuht. So now is it militarily advantageous to keep pushing on the Bakmuht front? Or wait and see if the Russians are dumb enough to feed a few more tens of thousands of mobiks into the meat grinder? Obviously it depends in part on the state of the Russian forces.

Edited May 12, 2023 by dan/california

[Huba]

This guy just decided to quit. Hard not to respect his fatalistic attitude in some way. Also, one can make an argument for mounting an loudspeaker on absolutely every drone in one's disposal, to manage situations like this.

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Huba

[DesertFox]

Russian held northern part of Bakhmut. Much smoking going on there...

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, akd said:

Pretty good evidence that strike in Luhansk was at least in part against high level C2, not just logistics:

Ah, that cheery fellow talking about how peaceful Luhansk is was in the building!  Well, I can excuse his confusion then about what peaceful means.  He probably has one heck of a concussion.

I'm not surprised that the building complex served multiple functions.  Consolidation makes sense except when the enemy suddenly changes the rules.

I thought targeting a repair facility was an odd choice for such an expensive and limited system.  Command element and repair facility?  Now there's a good pick!

Steve

[akd]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, that cheery fellow talking about how peaceful Luhansk is was in the building!  Well, I can excuse his confusion then about what peaceful means.  He probably has one heck of a concussion.

I'm not surprised that the building complex served multiple functions.  Consolidation makes sense except when the enemy suddenly changes the rules.

I thought targeting a repair facility was an odd choice for such an expensive and limited system.  Command element and repair facility?  Now there's a good pick!

No, turns out he went into ruins for a photo op and fell on his face.

[DesertFox]

Still rumors, but I guess we will learn soon:

 

 

[Artkin]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Still rumors, but I guess we will learn soon:

 

 

No sympathy for Lukashenko. 

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, Huba said:

That is something I was pondering in my head since some time. To quote @The_Capt "...precision beats mass, massed precision beats everything". The actual main UA push (if there's one) will have to follow this principle. Some kind of "Shock and Awe", with the goal of the RU house of cards falling apart after a hearty kick being the goal. We can be sure of mass artillery strikes, HIMARSing everything worth expending a rocket, and GLSDB/ SS strikes on everything not in GMLRS range. I'm sure we are about to see the most intense concentration of firepower yet in this war.

I just got done emailing someone in Ukraine about this.  I know I've mentioned it here several times, but watching the bloggers panic and soldiers picking up and moving to the rear (that drone video just posted was awesome!) makes me think there's more value in "shock and awe" than the more methodical deep strikes we saw last year.  I'm not sure how much fight is left in the average Russian right now, and a huge show of force that the Russians haven't been able to do since last Spring (if even then) might get things rolling quite nicely.

8 minutes ago, akd said:

No, turns out he went into ruins for a photo op and fell on his face.

Yeah, I just saw the post above.  Funny, I thought he looked pretty cleaned up when he was outside whining and complaining.  I was going to go back and check, but someone beat me to it.  Good because that frees me up to look at my backlog of open tabs!

Still, I do not think that portion of the building was unused, nor do I think it was full of mechanics taking naps.  Even if the command/control functions were limited to coordinating aspects of logistics that would be a nice score.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Still rumors, but I guess we will learn soon:

 

 

I think it's clear he's sick, but I'm not sure Putin wants Luka out of the way just yet.  The last thing Putin should want right now is the potential for major unrest within Belarus.

BTW, if things do break down in Belarus, and there's violence, my guess is the Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine will go back home.  They are small in number, but they could play a key role in what comes next for their country.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Well are they still allowed to enter the Olympics?

 

[Battlefront.com]

Finally got to watching the last (for now) K2 video of "Cyclops"

 

There's something I've seen over and over again in these clearing ops.  I'm curious why they throw grenades around a corner or into a bunker and then wait to do something after.  I'm thinking the best time to do something is the second after the grenade has detonated.  What that something is would be tailored to the situation, of course, but something other than falling back and repeating.  Obviously harder to coordinate with a grenade drop from a drone, so I'm mostly talking about the guys right there with the grenade. 

Thoughts from the pros?

Steve

[Lurb]

I had noticed that too... My (non pro) impression is that you cannot really be sure about what the grenade has actually done around the corner, so if you follow it you might jump into unharmed and ready enemies that you just put on higher alert. So things look a lot more hesitant/methodical than the theoretical usage of grenades to quickly clear areas.

[DesertFox]

Amazing...

 

[kimbosbread]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not sure how much fight is left in the average Russian right now, and a huge show of force that the Russians haven't been able to do since last Spring (if even then) might get things rolling quite nicely.

One can imagine spending a few months in soggy fortifications if not in active combat, and having zero creature comforts or decent equipment would really ruin your desire to fight.

[Artkin]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

However it is just about right if you want to drive about 150kms deep, cut a strategic land bridge, hold on the left and exploit on the right so your opponent runs back to defensive positions at a geographic bottleneck.  And have enough gas in the tank to do c-moves, plug holes or exploitation.

I know I said I wouldn't comment further but I'm home and I do think I owe you a response.

A 5km breakthrough would be perfectly believable in WW2 when you didn't have drones flying around. One Russian drone can easily recon a 5km frontage for signs of movement.

We know Russian artillery is more than capable of coming down extremely quickly on target. How far will they advance by the end of day 1? If it isn't far they will be prone to shelling. A 5km front is not a lot for a single brigade. If you're using two brigades for the 5km - that's a lot of targets in a small location. There are multiple instances of schwerepunkts working in ww2, but this is a totally different fight. This isn't 1942 when panzer divisions were the king of organizations... (Until the 2nd formation of 5th TA). It worked in ww2 because the Germans were mostly facing infantry divisions with mediocre support assets and rogue tank corps/brigades that completely failed to cooperate with the infantry. Pair that with fog of war and you get some pretty interesting stories of armored knife fights (I.e. Carius, Prokhorovka)

Understandably Ukraine has limited heavy vehicles. Most donated vehicles are Mraps or APCs as opposed to IFVs or tanks. It would make sense that the heavier formations will exploit the breakthrough. But even still 5km is too small of a frontage for this. I can almost see 5km down the very road I live on. I used to be able to run 5km in ~21 minutes (We're getting back at it don't worry ). It's not a far distance at all.

As Chibot mentioned, the logistical trail would get hammered. If the operation fails and the troops become stuck, they really better hope another two brigades are ready to leapfrog over them. Even still, I can't see it working out. Too many troops in one spot. It totally contradicts Ukrainian tactics from 2014-2023.

Maybe they will employ cruise missiles and GMRLS against long range artillery assets during the counteroffensive. Not sure if it would be a waste, but it would help with the momentum. I expect Ukraine will attack in a sector which has very weak artillery.

But as you say, don't underestimate your enemy, Russians like their maskirovka. Of course the Soviet generals of 1944-1945 were hardened professionals that survived the purge, commissars (Like Lev Z. Meklis), and demotion/reassignments during the tough years (41-43). The Russian leadership of 2023 has clearly failed to prove themselves.

[DesertFox]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thoughts from the pros?

Steve

Not really a pro, however...There were 5-7 guys crawling out of that bunker at the end of the vid which tells me that bunker was constructed with grenade/splintercover inside (as it should be), basically a bent of the slittrench after the entrance with ideally a firingslit to aim at the entrance. Now imagine what would happen if you storm the bunker 1 sec after the grenade right in front of the splintercover detonated in the entrance area of the bunker. Really not a good idea. You need something with more "Oomp" than a handgrenade fired or thrown into the entrance which really drives the rats out,

[Artkin]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not really a pro, however...There were 5-7 guys crawling out of that bunker at the end of the vid which tells me that bunker was constructed with grenade/splintercover inside (as it should be), basically a bent of the slittrench after the entrance with ideally a firingslit to aim at the entrance. Now imagine what would happen if you storm the bunker 1 sec after the grenade right in front of the splintercover detonated in the entrance area of the bunker. Really not a good idea. You need something with more "Oomp" than a handgrenade fired or thrown into the entrance which really drives the rats out,

Russians clearly don't have an issue with using thermobarics. That should be on the list for any offensive army getting this close and personal with fortifications.

[Huba]

An interesting map by col. Korowaj - helps to associate some numbers and names to the theatre of operations:

 

[paxromana]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Ho boi  It was more complicated than that, no? But Hold on, let me get a firm grasp of...this...derailment...lever-

Who's our resident Roman History person, is it @billbindc? 

KaChunk!

Only a little ... it was loss of a large chunk of their experienced soldiers (training was largely at unit level ... no centralised training units, except, in a limited way, for a small number of officers) plus a confluence of other events. Recovery was slow ... but it did happen. 

[Kinophile]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-ukraine/index.html

Wot Cruze Missel doin'?

Diamond cutting diamond...or rather Diamond cutting Wood...