How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Is ammunition so short for the tanks?

I think, it's in order in this particulary unit, setting a norm of ammo waisting for each task accomplishing. If crew had a task to shell position with waisting 90 % of ammo load, but used almost 2 ammo loads, they formally violated the order.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Splinty]

27 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Technically Abrams also has a bunch of unprotected shells inside the hull next to the driver and next to the engine compartment. This is with full ammo load.

Leopard 2 has even more. Only 15 are in the turret blowout compartment and rest of the around 40 are "unprotected" next to the driver.

Nope. All the ammo besides the 6 rounds in the protected storage in the hull are stored in the separate turret storage compartment. THAT is with a full load. Western armies prefer to protect the lives of a trained tank crew rather than sacrifice barely competent conscripts.

[Fenris]

I seem to recall reading that it was regular practice (at least with experienced crews) to just stuff as many rounds as possible into the vehicle, even loose on the turret floor, during WW2.  I presume that's not an option with an auto-loader and western armies haven't really fought in anything resembling WW2 since.  I find it interesting to read about small details like this developing over time to meet real world demands.

[Centurian52]

Just now, Fenris said:

I seem to recall reading that it was regular practice (at least with experienced crews) to just stuff as many rounds as possible into the vehicle, even loose on the turret floor, during WW2.  I presume that's not an option with an auto-loader and western armies haven't really fought in anything resembling WW2 since.  I find it interesting to read about small details like this developing over time to meet real world demands.

If anything it would have been the inexperienced crews doing that. In fact of all the measures taken to reduce catastrophic ammunition explosions in Shermans during WW2, preventing crews from cramming spare ammunition into every corner was by far the most effective. Cramming lots of spare ammunition into a tank has always proven to be a bad idea.

[Fenris]

I've seen a couple of clips like this in the past week, looks like conditions are still not ideal

 

[akd]

Prigozhin shows off his collection of dead convicts:

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

Prigozhin shows off his collection of dead convicts:

 

Again?  I guess the still images of piles of dead Wagnerites didn't do the trick.

Steve

[Fenris]

55 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

If anything it would have been the inexperienced crews doing that. In fact of all the measures taken to reduce catastrophic ammunition explosions in Shermans during WW2, preventing crews from cramming spare ammunition into every corner was by far the most effective. Cramming lots of spare ammunition into a tank has always proven to be a bad idea.

My reading pertains mainly to the German experience in the east.

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Again?  I guess the still images of piles of dead Wagnerites didn't do the trick.

Steve

It's interesting to watch this sub plot play out. There's a line and Prigozhin seems to believe he knows where it is. I'm not so sure he does. 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

It's interesting to watch this sub plot play out. There's a line and Prigozhin seems to believe he knows where it is. I'm not so sure he does. 

you gotta wonder with all the hubbub over the drone attack.  Not a good time to try to put the squeeze on Putin.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's interesting to watch this sub plot play out. There's a line and Prigozhin seems to believe he knows where it is. I'm not so sure he does. 

Yup.  This is what we Americans refer to as a dumpster fire.

Steve

[kevinkin]

Never saw a short order cook so mad. The Soup Nazi turned Ground Beef Nazi. Any Russian viewing all this has to be numb on some form of medication. Can you imagine the look on Xi's face when they show this latest from one of Putin's henchman. Is insanity a defense at a war crimes trial? If Xi thinks Ukraine-Russia just distracts the west to his advantage and is a large scale version of the Hatfields & McCoys, he better think again. His cute strategy is actually disgusting and could back fire big time.   

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Prigozhin shows off his collection of dead convicts:

This one is extremelly explicit. I don't remember him getting so emotional. He is begging for ammo for a long time, it curious if his rant + recent droning of Kremlin flag may be somehow temporarly connected?

Edited May 5, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  This is what we Americans refer to as a dumpster fire.

Steve

A raging dumpster-full-of-hair fire.

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Prigozhin shows off his collection of dead convicts:

 

As if Prigozhin himself has no responsibility for this??????  He's the one shoving them into the meat grinder.  He's the one grabbing inmates and throwing them into the fight w no training. 

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

As if Prigozhin himself has no responsibility for this??????  He's the one shoving them into the meat grinder.  He's the one grabbing inmates and throwing them into the fight w no training. 

If you think of the war in Ukraine as a war for power in Moscow, it's a lot simpler to parse these guys.

[dan/california]

 Best meme I have seen in a while.

[Battlefront.com]

On 5/3/2023 at 4:54 PM, Haiduk said:

Yes. But. 

Any society in case of war divides on six groups

1. I must go at war immediately to defend my country. This is my obligation like man and citizen.

2. I will go as I will be ready (to have additional training, to finish some projects etc)

3. The war is terrible, I fear, but I understand this is my obligation to defend country in case of war, so I will go, when I will drafted.

4. The war is terrible, I fear, I don't want go at war, I never served in army, but the law is law, I have no choice if I will be drafted

5. The war is terrible, I fear, I don't want go at war, better I escape aboard illegally or for bribe 

6. Law? Сonstitution? Country? "F...k on all this! Nation is social construct! I'm "citizen of world"/ "let stupid plebs die in trenches - I'm too high educated (or rich) person for this dirt!" / "what f...g obligations! Let the state maintains my rights initially!" / "I'm pacificst" 

 

Since first two already at war completely, we have only 3-6. Our Constitution says that defending of the state in case of war is obligation of everybody citizen. Our drafting law allows to issue summons to army in any place. So nothing illegal if you get in on ski resort. But this article describe this in some apocaliptic way. Ski resorts weren't so empty as they write. 

Our order of summoning is next:

1. Issuing the summon to enlistment center

2. Cheking of your data in enlistment center. If you havn't milityary ID you will get it. 

3. Medical checking 

4. If you are recognized as fit of partially fit for service, you have two ways after p.3 - either you get mobilization issue and go to training center (40-60 % of probability) or you go home and wait when you will be need (enlistment office can call you through two weeks, two months, or can don't call at all)

 

But most of people of categories 5-6 (and many among 4th) thing that after p.1 they will be immediately sent to Bakhmut trenches. This, Russian and local "anti-drafting" propaganda from some "human rights activists" make own work among these people. So all "violent drafting" incidents has the same scenario:

- Greetings! We are representatives of X enlistment office. According the laws and Constitution of Ukraine we give to you summoning to enlistmemnt center. Please, show your passport and military ID (if you have latter)

- Whaaaat?! You have no rights! I read in internet!!! You must to visit me at home!!! But I will not open the door to you, moth...rs! Fu..k yo off!! Go from my way ! 

- Citizen, you are vilolate the law. You must show your documents and put a sign on summoning!

- Fu...k off!!! You, bastards! Guys shed own blood on frontline, but you are catching usual people in deep rear! Catch a son of oligarch! Why me?! I don't want go at the war! I have <1000 reasons> to stay home! 

- Documents please! 

- AAAA!!! Fu..k you! You will not force me!!!! You have no rights! Get this! *try to punch*

- *radio* bring a bus here, we have a client, will be pack him now.

Latter is not regulated by laws clearly. Militaries probably can't detain civilian by force, but police can do this, so they should call police, or policeman should be in their patrol.    

But on video you anyway can see only last part of dialogue, but never from what all started. This caused illusio of "mass violent mobilisation". 

Though, problems with mobilization exists. Many of those, who have money and havn't conscience already bought "white tickets" in the same enlistment offices or medical committees. Medical commission is often very formal, especially in district centres. From villages and small towns enlistment offices take almost all - and then commanders have many problems with unmotivated and drunken personnel. But if you have a money and you turned out in army at all, you can pay monthly "tax" to your commander and you will sit in place of unit dislocation or at leat in "third line". 

Drafting is going continuously. It never paused since Day 1. In some month it can be mass like in December-March of this year, in some month it can be almost inconspicuous.  
 

Not to drag up a discussion that has, as in the past, gone absolutely nowhere because the person who started it ceased responding, I thank you for taking the time to write all this down.  Very good information!

Drafting worked like this in the United States before it was ended.  It also similar to the way people are selected to sit on juries for criminal and civil trials.  You probably won't ever serve on a jury, but you are obligated to go through the process.  Theoretically a US citizen can get fined and/or go to jail for not complying with the requirements.  There are some citizens who object to this obligation and do all kinds of things to get out of service.  Like this...

 

[Battlefront.com]

Prig's piles of dead prisoners is not necessary going to get Russians to be all sympathetic:

https://www.rferl.org/a/wagner-mercenaries-violent-crimes-russia-ukraine/32392588.html

This is an update to earlier coverage of a pardoned prisoner smashing up cars and killing an elderly woman pretty much as soon as he completed his time in Ukraine.

Steve

[JonS]

Edit: anachronism

Edited May 5, 2023 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's May 4th report states this:

Quote

Russian officials are likely using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades for the May 9 Victory Day holiday. Russian sources reported that Russian officials have canceled May 9 parades in 21 cities in Russia and occupied Crimea either without offering official justification or citing security reasons.[14] Russian officials in several cities claimed that they were canceling May 9 events and parades out of concern for participants of the “special military operation.”[15] ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin will use the May 3 strike to cancel May 9 events and augment its informational effort to frame the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia.[16] The Kremlin likely hopes to limit typical May 9 events to conceal the degradation of the Russian military because such events demonstratively showcase advanced Russian military equipment, much of which is either critical to Russian operations in Ukraine or has been destroyed in 14 months of attritional fighting.[17] The Kremlin also likely hopes to curb May 9 events out of fears that celebrations honoring deceased servicemembers could become a potential source of domestic backlash for Russia’s high casualty figures in Ukraine. Russian officials have canceled immortal regiment memorial events in recent weeks likely for such reasons.[18]

It's pretty clear many Russian cities wanted/needed to cancel their parades due to the war, so they are using the Moscow drone strikes as an excuse.  Who caused the drone strike isn't relevant for this, but if it wasn't the Russians then it sure is convenient timing.

What would help clarify this is if we knew how much work these 21 cities had put into their May 9th celebration plans.  At this point they should be pretty much completely organized and all needed resources sourced.  If all that was done, and the scale of activities reasonably similar to previous years, then the case for them cancelling to get out of an embarrassment is thin.  I suspect the opposite.  Some of the larger and better connected cities might have had something in the works, though scaled down.  I think the less influential ones were likely struggling to get anything impressive for a parade.

Steve

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Fenris said:

I've seen a couple of clips like this in the past week, looks like conditions are still not ideal

 

The motion looks more like a boat...

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Fenris said:

I've seen a couple of clips like this in the past week, looks like conditions are still not ideal

 

Exhibit A in any argument that tracked vehicles have advantages over wheeled vehicles.  At least in theory.  I've seen plenty of bogged tracked vehicles to know they aren't immune to getting stuck.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Prig's piles of dead prisoners is not necessary going to get Russians to be all sympathetic:

https://www.rferl.org/a/wagner-mercenaries-violent-crimes-russia-ukraine/32392588.html

This is an update to earlier coverage of a pardoned prisoner smashing up cars and killing an elderly woman pretty much as soon as he completed his time in Ukraine.

Steve

Old habbits die hard.

[Fenris]

Life in the (muddy) trenches. This was posted 2 weeks ago.  Finally a guy using a periscope.  Youtube sub-titles work with this one.