How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

Prigozhin is putting Kadyrov in a very bad spot by doing this. For all its manifest faults, Wagner could actually fill trenches with troops and launch attacks. Kadyrov cannot and if he really tries to he will be damaging his own power base in Chechnya directly. Yet another sign that Prigozhin lacks the ability to grab power. Months ago he was cooperating with Kadyrov to seize control of the MoD. Now he's burning that bridge.

It was pretty obvious that the Prig and Kadyrov statements were coordinated, but Kadyrov actually putting his guys into a well established meatgrinder?  That is shocking.  So much so that I'm thinking this is a stunt only and Kadyrov has no intention of going through with it.

If Chechens do replace Wagner then it will be defensive and probably pulled back along a straight defensive line.  With the probable pending removal of VDV forces from the salient north of Bakhmut, those positions are untenable.

Steve

[kevinkin]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-patriot-kinzhal-6b59af8e60853b4d6d16dd8d607768be

I wonder parts on the ground can confirm this. Technically and overall and interesting development. 

[kevinkin]

More details emerge and coverage of the "frantic day".

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russia-rains-incendiaries-on-bakhmut

Car bomb too:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65509809

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It was pretty obvious that the Prig and Kadyrov statements were coordinated, but Kadyrov actually putting his guys into a well established meatgrinder?  That is shocking.  So much so that I'm thinking this is a stunt only and Kadyrov has no intention of going through with it.

If Chechens do replace Wagner then it will be defensive and probably pulled back along a straight defensive line.  With the probable pending removal of VDV forces from the salient north of Bakhmut, those positions are untenable.

Steve

Kadyrov is apparently furious about the whole thing and publicly swatted Prigozhin for complaining. He clearly is unwilling.

[akd]

More Terra Unit ops from early spring around Bakhmut:

 

[kevinkin]

https://armedforces.press/u-s-sends-hydra-70-rockets-to-ukraine-for-first-time-as-part-of-300-million-aid-package/

I wonder if the UA has some novel way to deploy the hydra up its sleeve? 

https://www.turdef.com/Article/hydra-rockets-with-apkws-kits-intercept-fast-moving-drones/2503

APKWS-guided rockets are effective against both stationary and moving soft and armoured targets. They can be fired from various platforms, including jets, helicopters, trucks, boats, and weapon stations, and stowed APKWS guidance kits, unlike nose-mounted seeker optics, protect seeker optics from adjacent rocket fire.

[akd]

13 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://armedforces.press/u-s-sends-hydra-70-rockets-to-ukraine-for-first-time-as-part-of-300-million-aid-package/

I wonder if the UA has some novel way to deploy the hydra up its sleeve? 

https://www.turdef.com/Article/hydra-rockets-with-apkws-kits-intercept-fast-moving-drones/2503

APKWS-guided rockets are effective against both stationary and moving soft and armoured targets. They can be fired from various platforms, including jets, helicopters, trucks, boats, and weapon stations, and stowed APKWS guidance kits, unlike nose-mounted seeker optics, protect seeker optics from adjacent rocket fire.

We’ve already seen them in use off the back of trucks.

 

”Terror” unit retaking a position on the road of life to Bakhmut:

Interesting use of command-detonated mines on ropes to swing into bunkers without exposing attackers to entrance opening.

[kevinkin]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

We’ve already seen them in use off the back of trucks.

With the UA? Never saw that. Recently?

[akd]

9 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

With the UA? Never saw that. Recently?

Humvee carrier, I think.

[kevinkin]

Nice. Thanks for that. Could help protect moving troops this year. 

[akd]

Textbook mech assault using a captured BMP-3:

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by akd

[Haiduk]

Serious deficit of modren ATGMs in Russian army.

This document was issued on 29th pf April during conflict between Prigozhyn and Shoigu. This is allegedly amont of ammunition handed over from MoD to PMC Wagner for March-April. 

I post it without translation, because it's quite obvious

It's other Interesting and this was pointed out in comments to this document in TG of some  Russian milblogger. There are no ATGMs in this list. And that's why. As told this blogger, Russian army now suffered huge shortage of ATGMs, because they wasted all stocks of new missiles when Russian army encountered with lack of artillery shells and in order to compensate this, usage of ATGMs (including TLGMs) and tank HE shells, using from closed positions increased by a multiple. This led to full exhausting of ATGM stocks, and because own manufacturing can't supply troops in proper amount of missiles, Russian army now forced to use old stocks of old Soviet ATGMs, which have outdated terms and launched successfully 1 from 5-6. 

In addition, the lack of ATGMs, Russians try to compensate also with Iranian missiles - recently were spotted Iranian thermobaric ATGMs for Iranian copy of "Kornet"   

Edited May 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

We’ve already seen them in use off the back of trucks.

 

”Terror” unit retaking a position on the road of life to Bakhmut:

Interesting use of command-detonated mines on ropes to swing into bunkers without exposing attackers to entrance opening.

That looks like it was one hell of an intensive close combat battle.  I saw at least one confirmed Ukrainian vehicle (M113) and at least two dead Ukrainian soldiers and 4 or 5 unidentifiable bodies.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Textbook mech assault using a captured BMP-3:

 

You can see the importance of stabilization.  As the BMP is withdrawing it is firing over the heads of the infantry it just dropped off.  Without stabilization the gun could have easily pitched downward and the fire would have hit friendlies instead of the enemy positions.

Steve

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That looks like it was one hell of an intensive close combat battle.  I saw at least one confirmed Ukrainian vehicle (M113) and at least two dead Ukrainian soldiers and 4 or 5 unidentifiable bodies.

Steve

These are old losses (M113 and BTR-4), not realted to this battle. Bodies near BTR-4 and in trench also belongs to enemy, they havn't color tapes. This BTR-4 and the same body near it already were seen on other video, where wounded UKR soldier, lying near this BTR was evacuated to the trench. This is a trench, closest to road near Khromove, which continuoulsy change hands, so here already a cemetry of vehciles 

Edited May 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Serious deficit of modren ATGMs in Russian army.

This document was issued on 29th pf April during conflict between Prigozhyn and Shoigu. This is allegedly amont of ammunition handed over from MoD to PMC Wagner for March-April. 

I post it without translation, because it's quite obvious

It's other Interesting and this was pointed out in comments to this document in TG of some  Russian milblogger. There are no ATGMs in this list. And that's why. As told this blogger, Russian army now suffered huge shortage of ATGMs, because they wasted all stocks of new missiles when Russian army encountered with lack of artillery shells and in order to compensate this, usage of ATGMs (including TLGMs) and tank HE shells, using from closed positions increased by a multiple. This led to full exhausting of ATGM stocks, and because own manufacturing can't supply troops in proper amount of missiles, Russian army now forced to use old stocks of old Soviet ATGMs, which have outdated terms and launched successfully 1 from 5-6. 

In addition, the lack of ATGMs, Russians try to compensate also with Iranian missiles - recently were spotted Iranian thermobaric ATGMs for Iranian copy of "Kornet"   

Nice confirmation of why ATGMs seem to be in short supply for the Russians.  Another thing we speculated about is that Russia sold too many out of its stockpiles before the war instead of from new production.  Putting aside corruption, this sort of sale makes sense if you don't think you need your stockpiles any time soon.  Businesses make decisions like this all the time.  "Sell now, worry later" mentality.

I wonder how bad the tank ammo situation is for Russia.  They were also using tanks as indirect fire weapons.  Also, they must have lost decades worth of production in all the ammo dump losses from Ukrainian HIMARS (and other) attacks last year.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

These are old losses (M113 and BTR-4), not realted to this battle. Bodies near BTR-4 and in trench also belongs to enemy, they havn't color tapes. This BTR-4 and the same body near it already were seen on other video, where wounded UKR soldier, lying ner this BTR was evacuated to the trench. This is a trench, closest to road near Khromove, which continuoulsy change hands, so here already a cemetry of vehciles 

For sure the vehicles were lost earlier, but there is one quick view of a mostly buried soldier with yellow tape on his arm.  He was probably buried by an artillery hit.  The other one I thought had tape on his arm didn't, so one confirmed Ukrainian.

Steve

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

He was probably buried by an artillery hit.

Oh, yes, I've seen now. Likely also previous lose, because attacking "Teror" (Belarusian unit) has green tapes. But it's hard to say either this arm (it's looks too wide) or just part of uniform. 

Edited May 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Bakhmut. Not a cinema war and price of our peaceful life in rear. Somebody wrote in comments this guy was killed later...

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

Thoughts about this?

 

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Thoughts about this?

 

I've posted this a day or two ago, with comment of our tank expert Andriy Tarasenko. This assesment in 100 BMP-3 in 2019 is wrong. In 2019 the plant only signed two year contract on 163 vehicles and had time to produce in that year only about 50. But even so, 200-250 vehciles for year is quite alot. Even with less capable Chineese thermals  

Edited May 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[MikeyD]

I recall a video posted to the CMBS board before this war of Russian (proxies) in Donbas firing off round-after-round of AT-4(5?), aiming at God-knows what, as a kind of ersatz artillery. Missiles they probably would like to have in their inventory today.

[akd]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Thoughts about this?

 

 

As Galeev covers briefly here, modern Russian mil production can’t really be seen as a single, cohesive industry:

Doubts raised by Haiduk aside, production of BMP-3 could be the same or less than previous years, but deliveries to Army increased because they are taking over export production for domestic delivery (and likely dooming their future export industry to ruin in the process).

Edited May 6, 2023 by akd

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, billbindc said:

Prigozhin is putting Kadyrov in a very bad spot by doing this. For all its manifest faults, Wagner could actually fill trenches with troops and launch attacks. Kadyrov cannot and if he really tries to he will be damaging his own power base in Chechnya directly. Yet another sign that Prigozhin lacks the ability to grab power. Months ago he was cooperating with Kadyrov to seize control of the MoD. Now he's burning that bridge.

My read on this is that Kadyrov got a call telling him what it’s going to be and he’s trying to make willing: https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1654947056530628611?s=46&t=kGSIb3jBDfCXyFsEkT53NQ

[akd]

One man army:

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1654887568813506561?s=20