How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Seems like "No-Smoking" season is about to begin...Mospyn...

 

 

[Astrophel]

On 5/2/2023 at 7:56 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Very interesting and detailed document (promoted by Kofman) getting at the events and timeline for Putin deciding to go to war in February 2022.  The article goes all the way back to the early 2000s and moves to the present time.  Here is the Google translated version from the original Ukrainian:

https://verstka-media.translate.goog/kak-putin-pridumal-voynu?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Another interesting point in this description of the sad world Putin inhabits was the reference to Bakhmut by Putin's admired philosopher Ilyin.  

""In order to clearly imagine Russia in the state of this prolonged insanity, it is enough to imagine the fate of "Independent Ukraine". This "state" will first of all have to create a new defensive line from Ovruch to Kursk and further through Kharkiv to Bakhmut and Mariupol."

Could this be an explanation for the obsessive attacks on Bakhmut?

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Just flying drones into the Kremlin now.  A brilliant, 3-day war.

 

More footage from a different angle.

[Degsy]

Mark Herman (who designed Gulf Strike) is designing a commercial board wargame on the first months of the 2022 invasion. Article here  >  First draft of history  and it shows the draft game map and some of the game materials. The article doesn't say who the piblisher will be, but the game is due out early next year.

The thread on Board Game Geek has a useful link to some of the other professional games being played or designed. The thread is here > Boardgame geek: modeling ongoing conflict

 

[hcrof]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Of course they are, and it is the official residence, but looks more like a symbolic demonstration to me. I doubt Putin sleeps right under the flag in the dome. Also, a highly demonstrative attack that seems to maximize visibility and minimize damage also raises the possibility of a false flag op.

Putin has to be on red square for the victory parade in a week. Ukraine is saying "we could get you if we want to". Putin is so paranoid he will be sweating bullets right now.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

Ergo, involuntary.  
Do you think someone can be ‘a little bit pregnant’?

Of course not, but you are either deliberately splitting hairs to push an agenda or you have some deficiencies in critical reasoning.

In fact, it is you who is making this sort of logic error.  You are taking the position that if a nation uses conscription that means everybody fighting is there under duress.  Conscription does not automatically mean the person is unwilling to go or objects to the point where he has to be rounded up by police force in the street.  Plenty of people, in both war and peacetime, accept that if their number is called up for conscription then it is their duty to comply willingly.  The social contract that goes along with conscription is complex and interesting, but off topic.

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

With respect to being ‘dated’, the article is two months old.  Have they stopped drafting people, or are you misrepresenting what is currently happening?

I made a single off handed generalization for comparison's sake, not some sort of detailed analysis.  Which should have been obvious, so it seems pretty clear you are trying to take that little tiny molehill and make it into a mountain in your attempts to continue making false equivocation.

As for my dated comment, that was directed at the excessive force used to grab would-be draft dodgers.  It seems there was a problem and that the problem has largely subsided.  Gone away completely?  I doubt it as this is war and people are flawed, so the two mean that a happy fuzzy bunny view of the world is bound to disappoint.
Ukraine has been using mobilization to some extent since the war started.  They have also prohibited men of fighting age going abroad.  When the pool of volunteers is insufficient to cover the needs they have to conscript from the population.  That does not mean they are unwilling.

So no, it is you who continues to misrepresent reality as part of an agenda that is frankly quite tiring.  If I find this thread distracted again by one of your deliberate attempts to derail the discussion, you're going to take a vacation for a while.

Steve

[Centurian52]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

One major difference between Kherson and Crimea is the distances and scale of the operation necessary to choke off the supply lines.  It was far easier to snip off Kherson and yet it proved quite difficult.  For sure the things Ukraine managed to accomplish doomed the Russian effort on the right bank, but the fighting raged on and Russia was able to withdraw.  With Crimea being so much larger and the distances to Russia's supply points substantially broader and deeper, Ukraine would need quite a lot of time with a lot more resources to effectively snip the LOCs.

A lot fewer LOCs going to Crimea than there were going to Kherson though, assuming that Ukraine has reached the Sea of Azov in this scenario. It's just that the one remaining GLOC is a lot harder to hit because it's much further away. If you have something that can hit it then you don't need to hit it with as much, because while it is a very big bridge, it is still just one bridge. At Kherson, not only where there multiple pre-existing bridges, but it was possible for the Russians to constantly set up new pontoon bridges. So the Ukrainians had to keep up a constant pace of strikes every time the Russians set up another pontoon. I honestly don't see the Russians setting up a pontoon bridge across the Kerch strait.

I don't see a viable way to prevent the Russians from continuing to bring supplies in by sea (striking Port Kavkaz might at least make it a bit harder for them to sealift supplies by the shortest route). But I don't think they can get the same throughput by bringing supplies in that way as they could get over the Kerch bridge.

[A Canadian Cat]

16 hours ago, Eric Statkevicus said:

RFID microchip implants, max range 500 meters, existing tech (anyone with a dogs since late 90's can vouch, including myself, albeit at lower range).  Tell the locals that if you don't want to get hit by our AI powered drone swarm, come to the local watering hole to receive your free implant.

Big fat nope.

EW spoofing could protect the bad guys.

Another excuse to butcher civilians or POWs to extract enough RFID for the bad guys.

EW blocking allows the drone to suddenly target friendlies or civilians.

[DesertFox]

Possibly false flag.

 

 

[Bearstronaut]

31 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Possibly false flag.

 

 

I guess a false flag is possible but I don't see why they would do it this way. It makes Russian air defense look incredibly impotent/incompetent. 

[Jiggathebauce]

Maybe it's symbolic? Like hey, we can get ya if we want 

[masc]

Don't know if this is totally appropriate here since it isn't necessarily military related but Vice interviewed Maria Lvova-Belova, the woman who alongside Putin has a warrant for her arrest from the ICC for the taking of Ukrainian Children.  Some have said they shouldn't have given her a platform but VICE throws tough questions at her and I think the interview is not only valuable today but also will be years or decades from now as a historical primary source.

 

[TheVulture]

35 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Possibly false flag.

 

There are other possibilities than a) false flag or b) drone flown from Ukraine. 

Such as pro-Ukrainian Russians in Moscow, or simply anti-Putin ones. 

[hcrof]

42 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Possibly false flag.

 

 

It makes Putin look so weak and the turbopatriots are already frothing at the mouth as a result. 

I think the 2 guys were just shielded by the cupola and it was a hand grenade level of explosives. Just a demonstration by Ukraine/pro Ukrainians 

[mosuri]

10 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

I guess a false flag is possible but I don't see why they would do it this way. It makes Russian air defense look incredibly impotent/incompetent. 

Striking at a symbolic target like Kremlin to whip up support for Great Patriotic SMO in Moscow?

Any statement from Russian government is a lie by default for me -- I believe it to be an Ukrainian operation when Ukraine claims it.

[billbindc]

Any argument that this was a false flag has to address the following:

1. What political/propaganda goal is be served by demonstrating the weaknesses of the Russian capitol's defense?

2. What response to this supposed escalation would it justify that Russia isn't already doing?

Until someone provides very compelling answers to those questions, assume it is what it looks like...some patriotic Ukrainians poking Putin in the eye for propaganda value. 

 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, mosuri said:

I believe it to be an Ukrainian operation when Ukraine claims it.

They officially denied to be involved in that.

 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

36 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

There are other possibilities than a) false flag or b) drone flown from Ukraine. 

Such as pro-Ukrainian Russians in Moscow, or simply anti-Putin ones. 

Also of interest is the perfectly located site for the video recording and the timing in the middle of the night of the drones’ approach and their cinematic detonation just above (not on) the building.  Should be easy to extrapolate the location of the phone or camera. It’s across the river from the complex
 

Edited May 3, 2023 by NamEndedAllen
Add map image

[Centurian52]

28 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

They officially denied to be involved in that.

 

 

If there's one thing we can be confident of, it's that the attack was intended to be more visible than destructive. Actual damage may not have even been a secondary objective. Considering it detonated so precisely over the Kremlin, I'm pretty sure that it detonated exactly where it was intended to (it didn't veer off course or get shot down before it could reach someplace where it could do more damage). And detonating such a small explosive over the roof of a building isn't going to damage much apart from a few shingles.

Given the clear emphasis on visibility, my feeling is that if the Ukrainian government says it wasn't them, then it wasn't them (you don't conduct such a highly visible op, and then not claim it). I'm not sure I buy that it's a Russian false flag operation either though. I'm just not seeing what the propaganda value of it would be. My guess is that it was an independent actor. Either Ukrainians acting on their own initiative, without orders from Kyiv, to give Putin an unignorable middle finger, or anti-Putin (pro-Ukrainian?) Russians doing the same.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Centurian52

[NamEndedAllen]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like Russia is starting to regain it's propaganda footing by POSSIBLY making up a strike on Ukrainian Major General Tantsyura (new commander of all TD forces). 

Interesting to consider this Russian publicized alleged assassination attempt, factual or not, quickly followed by the drone explosions over one of Putin’s residences. In the very heart of the heavily fortified complex. Rapid reaction by Ukraine, or just coincidence? 

[Bulletpoint]

I think it will be interesting to see if there will be a Russian investigation into who did that drone attack, and whether some rival of Putin will be found to be guilty.

A way to get rid of Prigozhin now that Wagner is spent and Bakhmut nearly taken?

Edited May 3, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Seminole]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

When the pool of volunteers is insufficient to cover the needs they have to conscript from the population.  That does not mean they are unwilling.

So no, it is you who continues to misrepresent reality as part of an agenda that is frankly quite tiring.  If I find this thread distracted again by one of your deliberate attempts to derail the discussion, you're going to take a vacation for a while.

Steve

I’m going to get banned for asking if Ukraine is still conducting a draft when you assert their force is volunteer vis-a-vis Russia’s?  I totally respect that’s it’s your sandbox, but it shouldn’t be an alternate reality, where up is down and drafted is voluntary.  That’s a disservice to the discussion here and flow of ideas.  
 

I think the question of conscription should rise in our consciousness as the war proceeds into the next phases.  The_Capt has brought up the issue of how much of the Donbas really wants to be in Ukraine, and how many Ukrainians should be lost capturing it.  I think the same thing goes for Crimea.  Any of us looking at a map see the military/strategic significance of that place, but does that consideration override the desire of the people who live there?  Does it justify conscripting people to conquer it?

Seem like fair topics for discussion, while we wait for the mud to dry.  I consider the topic quite specific to this war, and in no sense am I making an effort to derail the thread.  I simply disagreed with how you presented the situation, cited the source of my understanding, and asked for clarification. 

[billbindc]

28 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

If there's one thing we can be confident of, it's that the attack was intended to be more visible than destructive. Actual damage may not have even been a secondary objective. Considering it detonated so precisely over the Kremlin, I'm pretty sure that it detonated exactly where it was intended to (it didn't veer off course or get shot down before it could reach someplace where it could do more damage). And detonating such a small explosive over the roof of a building isn't going to damage much apart from a few shingles.

Given the clear emphasis on visibility, my feeling is that if the Ukrainian government says it wasn't them, then it wasn't them (you don't conduct such a highly visible op, and then not claim it). I'm not sure I buy that it's a Russian false flag operation either though. I'm just not seeing what the propaganda value of it would be. My guess is that it was an independent actor. Either Ukrainians acting on their own initiative, without orders from Kyiv, to give Putin an unignorable middle finger, or anti-Putin (pro-Ukrainian?) Russians doing the same.

Exactly. Zelensky doesn't control every possible Ukrainian act and wouldn't want to. Things that are deniable are often useful. It's also hard to fault the operation on the level of informational conflict...demonstrating Russian vulnerability just as the Bradley's are warming up is a shrewd move.

[TheVulture]

39 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Also of interest is the perfectly located site for the video recording and the timing in the middle of the night of the drones’ approach and their cinematic detonation just above (not on) the building.  Should be easy to extrapolate the location of the phone or camera. It’s across the river from the complex
 

Eyeballing various landmarks and street lights that line up to triangulate a position (isn't google maps satellite view useful sometimes), my first wild-*** estimate is that the camera is located somewhere around the hotel Baltschug, just visible in the bottom right of NamEndedAllen's map. The steadiness obviously suggests it isn't a hand-held camera.

It's not entirely unbelievable that a hotel right next to central moscow might have a camera recording the view over red square (or one of the guests happened to), especially with the victory day parade on the horizon - might even be a film crew that booked some hotel rooms and had their cameras set up in advance (although a week in advance seems unnecessary).

But it is possible to dream up plausible reasons why someone in the hotel might have been filming in the red-square direction at the right time by chance.

Edited May 3, 2023 by TheVulture

[Bearstronaut]

5 minutes ago, Seminole said:

I’m going to get banned for asking if Ukraine is still conducting a draft when you assert their force is volunteer vis-a-vis Russia’s?  I totally respect that’s it’s your sandbox, but it shouldn’t be an alternate reality, where up is down and drafted is voluntary.  That’s a disservice to the discussion here and flow of ideas.  
 

 

There are drafted Ukrainian soldiers as well as volunteers. Some people have to be compelled to fight, even in an existential war such as the one Ukraine is currently fighting. All the major Allied powers had conscription in WW2, even the USSR who were facing genocide and annihilation. The Red Army had quite draconian disciplinary measures as well. The fact the Ukraine needs to resort to conscription to fill the ranks doesn't make them any less worthy of support.