How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

We discussed troop density of RU forces:

 

[kluge]

7 hours ago, akd said:

An earlier incident at the “T-Pattern”? Or was it subsequently lost again?

 

T-pattern is a different location on the other side of the river, approx 10-20km to the SE.

The square mounds are fairly common on farms in that area; perhaps some kind of basin to collect rainwater?

[Der Zeitgeist]

Well, whatever these documents are, we'll eventually find out if they are legit.

The Russians are sure to test some of the key assumptions contained in them. If they suddenly win the air war in May because Ukraine runs out of SAMs, we'll know it was a real leak.

[Beleg85]

Meanwhile, news from Bakhmut are that Russians are slowly pushing forward- a lot of fires today was reported as well.

This clips reportedly from the road. Additionaly, medical volunteers claimed they have problems with evacuating people from line 0 and are from now on bound to use streches (perhaps he mean in city center), as even armoured vehicles can't get close enough without catching enemy fire.

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

34 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Another leak reported by NY Times, this batch with stuff relating to Mid East and China. I don't subscribe, but I could read it so this article may not be behind their paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/us/politics/classified-documents-leak.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230407&instance_id=89697&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=127060291&segment_id=129881&te=1&user_id=314c088543b55272263c5d404e9a5425

It seems like it was all funneled through 1 guy and then slowly spread out from there. It almost seems like he didn’t quite understand what he was doing. He closed his twitter account today and was essentially saying “I’m f*&$ked”. 

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Meanwhile, news from Bakhmut are that Russians are slowly pushing forward- a lot of fires today was reported as well.

This clips reportedly from the road. Additioanlly, medical volunteers claimed they have problems with evacuating people from line 0 and are sometimes bound to use streches (perhaps he mean city center), as even armoured vehicles can't get close enough without catching enemy fire.

 

That looks really bad.  That one stretch of road must be under close observation, I wonder if UKR can clear that spot.  Unless RU just using drones and well timed, accurate artillery, which seems unlikely.  Hopefully UKR has cleared out the trouble makers that got so close to the supply line.  Very disheartening. 

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It seems like it was all funneled through 1 guy and then slowly spread out from there. It almost seems like he didn’t quite understand what he was doing. He closed his twitter account today and was essentially saying “I’m f*&$ked”. 

Yeah, kid seem to be one those racist weirdos making thousands of selfies and throwing literally everything into the net he ever saw, but still- how he get this stuff...and why by today's morning he was apparently still able to write and tweet freely?

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

That looks really bad.  That one stretch of road must be under close observation, I wonder if UKR can clear that spot.  Unless RU just using drones and well timed, accurate artillery, which seems unlikely.  Hopefully UKR has cleared out the trouble makers that got so close to the supply line.  Very disheartening. 

Could theoretically be stuff shifted sideways after some prolonged period, not remnants of one column- that road was shelled for months.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://eurasiantimes.com/classified-info-on-chinas-main-battle-tank-type-99-leaked-online/

Everything about the new pentagon leak reminds me of the Chinese leak about the type 99 KE penetrator. Someone, somewhere, for reasons that made no sense to anybody else did something they are going to regret for a long time.

[Vet 0369]

On 4/5/2023 at 7:03 AM, Grigb said:

I don't have much time, but I noticed something interesting - I'm not sure if you discussed it, but there are rumors that UKR successfully pushed back RU at Avdiivka and Maryinka in the last few days. Furthermore, the RU is said to have did a tactical withdrawal at Vuhledar (retreated to better defensive positions). The claim is that this is not the offensive, but rather an improvement of local situation before the offensive elsewhere. 

It is extremely unreliable, but Girkin today declared that At Avdiivka, our offensive choked [suddenly stopped with negative connotation].

Let's monitor the situation closely. 

When the students are ready, the Master will appear!

Welcome back Grigio.

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yeah, kid seem to be one those racist weirdos making thousands of selfies and throwing literally everything into the net he ever saw, but still- how he get this stuff...and why by today's morning he was apparently still able to write and tweet freely?

Could theoretically be stuff shifted sideways after some prolonged period, not remnants of one column- that road was shelled for months.

Yep, @MrLucca from groyperville. The dissemination screams disinformation op to me. It was chicken fed to a clown by someone after it had been either confected/altered who didn’t seem to realize what he was putting out. Also, if the information was as hot as some assert, it would be far better for the Russians to keep it to themselves so that Ukraine wouldn’t adjust to the Russian discovery. The caveat, of course is that the GRU are often quite incompetent so <insert shrug emoji here>.

[NamEndedAllen]

However many entities these documents passed through from the original to those that crudely altered some of the entries, the materials are much broader than it originally seemed. 

The materials also reference highly classified sources and methods that the United States uses to collect such information, alarming U.S. national security officials who have seen them. —

include highly sensitive U.S. analyses about China and other nations. —

It was unclear who may have posted the materials online, this person said, adding that hundreds — if not thousands — of people had access to them. The source of the leak, the official said, “could be anyone.”  https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/07/pentagon-leak-ukraine-documents/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert.
(my bolded)

[Beleg85]

31 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yep, @MrLucca from groyperville. The dissemination screams disinformation op to me. It was chicken fed to a clown by someone after it had been either confected/altered who didn’t seem to realize what he was putting out. Also, if the information was as hot as some assert, it would be far better for the Russians to keep it to themselves so that Ukraine wouldn’t adjust to the Russian discovery. The caveat, of course is that the GRU are often quite incompetent so <insert shrug emoji here>.

Since Russians did half-assed attempt a posteriori to change casualty numbers on that sheet, I am not sure it was them who feed it- or maybe different services misunderstood each other here? Kid is an idiot clearly, but it was month ago, so it took a very long time for spreading these things. Also absolute niche gaming/racist groups are probably not the best choice to disseminate them. Add additional info from this article that there are more leaks in line, regarding Middle East and China...odd, but frankly seems real.

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Vet 0369]

On 4/5/2023 at 8:00 PM, kevinkin said:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/bill-clinton-reveals-blames-himself-211859904.html

A good idea that just needed much better support. I think the US forgot that they actually took the nukes after a few years. Or that supporting Ukraine's security without them was critical. And when they did think about it, the powers that be did not want to piss Putin off thinking they could bring Russia into the fold with enough time. 

It’s about time someone “fessed-up” to being wrong. However, I don’t believe that failure should be laid at the feet of the Clinton/Gore Administration. They were trying to create a way to secure the nukes from access by terrorist organizations. It should be laid on the Obama/Biden Administration that failed to live up to the commitment made by the Clinton/Gore Administration. Obama wanted nothing to do with the invasion by the “little green men” and the “Vacationers,” so he gave it to Biden to take care or it. I sometimes wonder if Biden’s election instead of Trump wasn’t somehow related to Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine when he did (one can never be sure what Trump’s reaction would have been. Never trust what a crazy person might do).

[Vet 0369]

On 4/5/2023 at 11:50 PM, dan/california said:

Every single point you make is correct. No one has more to lose in this than the Taiwanese. I sincerely hope Xi decides he has enough problems ,and Taiwan just gradually fades out of the news. But if Xi has all but decided to go for it and the planning process is under way, nothing short of an ironclad guarantee that attacking Taiwan means war with the U.S. and all our Asian allies is going to dissuade him. Two U.S. brigades parked outside of Kyiv in January 2022 might have averted the entire tragedy in Ukraine. I assume Taiwan probably has better intelligence sources in China that anyone else. I would simply state that if the Taiwanese Government asks for U.S. forces to be stationed there, The U.S. should have them the in days not weeks. Which implies all the prep, and all the planning have already been done, on both sides. Because we have seen Ukraine, we have seen  Hong Kong, and we have seen Xinjiang. We all really want war in the Taiwan straight to remain a fictional scenario. Taiwan most of all.

Positioning “a Division” of Marines in Taiwan (which was Formosa to me while I was gtowing up), is pretty much already done, and China knows it. The 1st Marine Division and the 1st Marine Air Wing are already stationed in Japan, Okinawa, and other scattered areas around there. You can be very sure that China hasn’t missed or forgotten how quickly the  Marines were able to deploy to S.Korea (albeit it a lot closer) when N. Korea invaded S. Korea. The USMC can deploy a Rapid Deployment Force (such as the 4th Marine Brigade) anywhere in the world within a maximum of 72-hours. Why do you think the Commandant of the Marine Corps has already revised Marine strategy by getting rid of its tanks and long-range arty in order to fight in the South China Sea? I’ll guarantee you that China hasn’t missed it.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

"One analyst described what has emerged so far as the “tip of the iceberg.” 

Well, at least the theory of 13-year old kid trying to impress his gaming mates by showing them his daddy's documents seems to be debunked somewhat.

All I know is that the guy who it can be traced back tools going to have his life disassembled with tweezers. Which is better than HIM being disassembled with tweezers, which is what would happen in Russia.

41 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

If these numbers are accurate I would like to put real money on the Ukrainian's parking HIMARS on the beach outside of Mariupol by July first. The AFU might even be able to attempt a simultaneous amphibious assault over the Dnipro.

5 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Positioning “a Division” of Marines in Taiwan (which was Formosa to me while I was gtowing up), is pretty much already done, and China knows it. The 1st Marine Division and the 1st Marine Air Wing are already stationed in Japan, Okinawa, and other scattered areas around there. You can be very sure that China hasn’t missed or forgotten how quickly the  Marines were able to deploy to S.Korea (albeit it a lot closer) when N. Korea invaded S. Korea. The USMC can deploy a Rapid Deployment Force (such as the 4th Marine Brigade) anywhere in the world within a maximum of 72-hours. Why do you think the Commandant of the Marine Corps has already revised Marine strategy by getting rid of its tanks and long-range arty in order to fight in the South China Sea? I’ll guarantee you that China hasn’t missed it.

If, big if, Chinese missiles, radars, and son work as advertised getting there after the shooting starts will not be a trivial thing. We also dont want to kick off a war that wouldn't otherwise happen. But the lesson of Ukraine is to be there before.

[Fenris]

Some go-pro footage from inside Bakhmut of an AGL team providing fire support.  Not much in the way of action per se but the audio gives a sense of the intensity of fighting.  They double it downstairs towards the end when they hear a GRAD strike.  English subs are good.

 

 

[MSBoxer]

5 hours ago, chrisl said:

It’s been standard airline usage for “passenger” (singular or plural) since forever and the only other usage I’ve heard is Latin for Pax Romana or Pax Americana.

I travel too much and also spend time on travel forums.

Or could it be "the Pax. The G-23 Paxilon Hydrochlorate that we added to the air processors. It was supposed to calm the population and weed out aggression."

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

This is something I've noticed looking at the pro RU accounts over the past months - last year the maps covered large areas with big arrows going here and there and language describing sweeping advances and gains.  Now they're reporting on this house or this street having been taken with the same language, its kind of strange. I still don't really understand why RU have chosen this hill to die on, there's how many hundreds of kilometers of front and yet they're bogged down in street fighting in one smallish city.

Makes me think that they really don't have the resources anymore for any bigger moves and that they know they're outclassed in the open so they're using the street fighting to try and even out the playing field.

Edited April 8, 2023 by Fenris

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

Even with x2 (add mobilized and tossed on frontline), these are very low densities.  Take Zap-Blue.  Double the density to 214 per km.  So chop a third for logistics/support, so 140-150 actual frontline troops (which is generous).  That is a healthy company with no one behind it, nor an ability to rotate out and off the line.  Based on what we have seen troop rotations are likely happening horizontally from loud to quiet sectors, not from front to rear.

This is the Russian problem.  A lot of people are handwringing about “frozen front lines” and Russian defensive belts but that is an enormous frontage to try and defend and nowhere enough troops to do it with.  Russian LOCs are interdict-able - I would be saving a lot of deep strike for that, so as the UA assaults the RA are going to be challenged to c-move (which will be highly visible).  The RA is simply spread too thin and likely does not have the logistics, ISR or C2 to be able to cover those sorts of ranges.  

I think that once the UA drops the hammer that whole thing is going to crack like an eggshell.  The RA counter-moves are going to get hit while trying to re-position.  RA targeting cycles are too slow and its logistics are fragile.  This has all the hallmarks of the setup for an operational collapse.

Edited April 8, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

27 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Or could it be "the Pax. The G-23 Paxilon Hydrochlorate that we added to the air processors. It was supposed to calm the population and weed out aggression."

But they just laid down and died…except for the Reavers.

[dan/california]

Well, this could get interesting...

[ASL Veteran]

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

But they just laid down and died…except for the Reavers.

NEEEEEEERRRRRRRDDDDDSSS!!!!!

I Mean... I don't know what you guys are referencing and I definitely do not have a DVD box set of whatever it might be.

 

 

In other news, I definitely wouldn't be surprised by the Ukr counter attacks in the other sectors. Seen an uptick of videos of RU trenches getting overrun. Which would be a nice background to start of the offensive. Slowly rolling the Russians out of their forward positions, testing the strength of the response. And when time comes, the Russians command will hopefully be suitably lulled into complacency. They won't know it's the real push before the second line gets a hammering. One cann only hope!

Zaporizhzhia certainly not as densely held as I was assuming it would be, if the numbers given above are even halfway accurate. How can anyone look at a map and think "yeah, we'll lightly man this area"?