How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

Looking at this and CM Maps look very realistic not overly detailed as some 1st and 3rd person shooter maps.

 

[Simcoe]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sorry for coming down a bit harsh on you.  I was on the road and had limited time to respond.  I'll try and make up for that now.

For sure your post was badly timed.  We all have limited bandwidth and everybody struggles to keep up with this thread even if checking in daily.  The track record here is that pretty much nothing covered in regular media is missed by this group, either as a quick mention or as a topic of conversation.  As a practical matter it isn't possible to continually revisit things that have already been covered unless there's something new to enter into the conversation. 

Bringing up a topic from over a month ago is problematic.  Especially when there's an easy way to search if it's been discussed (e.g. "Hersh" as the search term).  If you had done that you would have seen a pretty lively debate about the topic and read through it.  That would likely have been sufficient to hold you over until some new information came about, which I have no doubts would revive the conversation.

Skepticism is a good thing, but remember that sources that create/spread disinformation prey on people's skepticism as a primary means of perpetuating that disinformation.  I can't do anything about Seymour Hersh, but I can try and limit the damage that's done by a journalist that has forgotten that the more explosive a story is the more it needs verification before it is fit to publish.

Steve

No worries. Thank you for following up. I'll use the search button next time.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, akd said:

One of the more brutal Russian disassembly by drone compilations (I warned you):

 

Drone warfare is accelerating at an exponential pace in this war. I remember early on we talked about what the future war would look like with drones and if this war continues for another year or two I think we will see it first hand.  There was a post within the last week or so with a larger drone mounting an MG and I think yesterday reference to a drone with a Claymore. Some of the large agricultural drone models can carry 50kg, so 2.75" guided rockets for truck hunting, ATGMs for armored vehicle hunting, AA missiles for plane hunting; the possibilities are endless.

Instead of a HMMWV with an ATGM mounted on it that you need to move into LOS for engagement, you can have a landing pad on the back deck for a large drone carrying a Javelin that you only need to get the vehicle to a point where the drone will have LOS when launched straight up to X altitude. Pop up, lock on, fire, land. With fire and forget systems like the Javelin there would be a very small window to even react or engage the drone. 

Watching this video posted by AKD and some other recent ones, it shows just how devastating drones dropping munitions have become. We have seen the evolution from a few here and there with varying success to these that are just wrecking havoc. When I think of the drone carrying the MG or AR the old ground pounder in me puckers. Take some of these videos, change out the drone dropping grenades with a drone sporting a sighted in AR pistol with a 100 rnd drum and think of the carnage that could result. 

The other recent development we are seeing is the FPV kamikaze drones. How long until we see the first drone swarms? I'm thinking about 90% of R&D money needs to be funneled into drone defense because drone offense is definitely here and improving at a very fast rate.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

13 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

T34/85 is next or SU-100 or even T34/76.

I know we are are just dunking on the Russians, but sadly, the "T-34 when?" won't happen. The Russians had to buy their T-34/85s from Laos to fill out their parades. But my goodness, we are coming closer to it quicker then I think anyone dared hope for. Within the replies to Oryx's spotting of grandad's old tank there's also an excellent photoshop of a BT-5 with ERA plates. One more genius meme in a long line.

 

I feel a little ashamed towards our Ukrainian boardmembers to admit it, but I am kinda enjoying this war.

In my defence, it's smart marketing by Ukraine, not merely my misery soaked war-nerd soul, that makes me feel this way. Almost from day 1, they went full into the memes as a deliberate strategy. And it worked. Because I care about the outcome of this war. Azerbaijan versus Armenia? Pff, as long as it doesn't interfere with my F1 enjoyment, I struggle to care. But you Ukrainians, you are too damn likeable and funny to be allowed to lose against the Russians.

And not that all is careful propaganda. From the brutal sunflower seed lady low key laying in to the Russian soldier to the good natured driver offering a broken down tank a tow back to Russia.... you guys are all right.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Elmar Bijlsma

[Vanir Ausf B]

[chuckdyke]

Few SU 100's around in South Korea, Seoul Museum. This one looks in good nick. Strongly recommend a visit. Pensioners like me don't have to pay. Wonder why the nice girl at the counter asked for my ID (Drivers License). Little disappointed was not my mature good looks.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Add to this a complete lack of any reasonable evidence that Russia would have somehow left Ukraine alone had the West not allowed Eastern European nations into the organization.  A lot of people have brought up the Budapest Memo as evidence the West left Ukraine hanging, but the violation of that agreement by Russia, first in 2014 and now is clear evidence that Russia was never going to "let sleeping dogs lie" if we had kept our hands off.  I argue we likely saved more lives by pulling in Estonia and Latvia (among others).

The only reason to frame this discussion as somehow a result of Western aggression is to try and justify Russian motivations, and the OP has a history of doing exactly that in a somewhat ham-handed anti-US/western narrative.  Putin is a genocidal monster who is waging an illegal war well outside the bounds of the LOAC.  Any righteous casus belli Russia may have had (and it didn't) prior to this war flew out the window at Bucha and the extremely long list of illegal warfare Russia has waged - to the point the ICC has indicted a sitting head of state.

So even if we except this bizarro logic, it is irrelevant to any future analysis, beyond informing us that a strategy of appeasement 1) won't work and 2) We probably should have worked harder to contain Russia, not less because it is pretty clear their military, at least, is operating on a medieval warfare framework.  I would also say that whatever box we put Russia into after this is over needs to be airtight, at least until Russia as a nation can demonstrate that it is ready to join the rest of civilization.

Post-war I am extremely worried as the viable strategic option space that sees Russia as a functioning nation heading back towards some sort of rational normalization is getting smaller and smaller.  Our ability to create a soft landing for Russia that it will not simply try to exploit is also getting harder and harder to see.  Dumping the whole thing on China's doorstep is not a bad idea but re-containment of Russia will have to be on the menu, right along with regime change.  Trying to engineer a nation is extremely hard, but that is what this is looking more and more what is going to be required in order to secure Ukraine and ensure Russia does not completely fly apart and make everything worse.

Russia is failing utterly to negotiate with itself about an inevitable defeat. This may make the war longer, but it will also make the loss much worse.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

This may also be relevant. If your ISR/artillery system is good enough you calmly watch the explosive mine clearance do its thing, and then lay artillery delivered mines in the newly cleared gaps at the exact moment of maximum exposure. The Russians don't seem to like the the trick very much. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

Tell me you're Eastern European without saying you're Eastern European.... 

 

[Kinophile]

Going further with that Politico article -

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/21/ukrainian-soliders-patriot-missile-training-oklahoma-00088166

Towards the end it mentions:

Quote

An additional 1,400 — two mechanized/Bradley battalions and one field artillery battalion — have already completed that training and are back in Ukraine right now on the front lines, O’Donnell said.

If so,  where? 

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I remember Haiduk mentioned that the line charge firing was messed up by strong wind and the failed to detonate might be caused by poor warehouse storage condition of the charges. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Simcoe said:

No worries. Thank you for following up. I'll use the search button next time.

No problem.  Again, sorry for being way more direct than was called for.

As for using the search... it's pretty good for when you know exactly what you are looking for AND there's some unique identifier.  "Hersh" is likely to pull up a small number of hits and probably spot on.  Searching for something about "Bakhmut", by contrast, would be like finding a needle in a haystack   Asking a specific question for something that likely was discussed here before is perfectly fine (note that I am not one who automatically brands people as "lazy" for not using search.  Sometimes search just work as needed)

Also, it is quite normal/routine for current event stuff (breaking news) to be posted here several times.  T-55s being the latest example.  It happens and I for one don't expect everybody posting something to have a) read every post up to the minute of posting and b) do a search for whatever they have to post.  For me, I apply a different standard for the current stuff vs. something from the past that was most likely talked about already.

This isn't aimed at you specifically.  I don't want to discourage anybody from posting relevant stuff out of fear of ticking someone off, so best to clean up the mess I made

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Going further with that Politico article -

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/21/ukrainian-soliders-patriot-missile-training-oklahoma-00088166

Towards the end it mentions:

If so,  where? 

This is all very familiar.  Last year we saw all the stuff being sent to Ukraine and as the Summer came and went we hadn't seen a number of known things (i.e. seen being used by Ukrainians behind the front) engaged in combat.  Then we did, pretty much all at once.  I expect the same thing will happen this year.  The remaining questions are when and where.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Going further with that Politico article -

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/21/ukrainian-soliders-patriot-missile-training-oklahoma-00088166

Towards the end it mentions:

If so,  where? 

We will know when Zaluzhny wants us to know. If things are going well that will be when Russian artillery parks and battalion command posts discover the joys of being on the receiving end of 25mm auto cannon fire.

[Battlefront.com]

A fascinating aspect of this war is the role Twitter and social media has played in supporting Ukraine.  True to form, whenever there is some good trying to be done there's people trying to scam off of it.  Seems this is the case with James Vasquez...

The problem with this is most of the information coming out against him is, itself, not verifiable.  Even more so, quite a lot of what I saw and where I saw it is in the extreme right-wing Internet sources that are making absolutely no attempts to hide their own agendas.  One of them has their documentation of Vasquez as a fraud right up there with attempts to prove things like pictures out of Bucha were faked. 

When Alex Jones picks up a story and runs with it... well, it complicates things

My take on it is Vasquez is someone who is a headcase (I just found a video of him going nuts on someone on a NYC subway last June) and did, in fact, go to Ukraine an did, in fact, get into the frontline during the early chaotic days.  He fairly soon went back to the US.  I stopped looking at his Tweets around that time.  At some point he returned to Ukraine and at that point seems to have gone over to being a fraud.  He seems to have gone around in the rear so he looked more real than the other posers, but that was all he did.  I started looking at his Tweets a couple of weeks ago and they felt... odd.  Especially when he posted about Davinci.  Not totally red flag waiving wrong, but odd.  Now I know why.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Nm

Edited March 23, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is all very familiar.  Last year we saw all the stuff being sent to Ukraine and as the Summer came and went we hadn't seen a number of known things (i.e. seen being used by Ukrainians behind the front) engaged in combat.  Then we did, pretty much all at once.  I expect the same thing will happen this year.  The remaining questions are when and where.

Steve

And to repeat... Where? Like you said,  where they end up is where the schwerpunkt will be. 

Incidentally, I'm not seeing a marked increase in UKR corrosion of RUS logistics in any particular area  -  yet. UKR doesn't have the stock to waste on a feint, so I assume an uptick in strikes in a certain area will be a flag. 

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

A fascinating aspect of this war is the role Twitter and social media has played in supporting Ukraine. 

You can say that again.

 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

And to repeat... Where? Like you said,  where they end up is where the schwerpunkt will be. 

Incidentally, I'm not seeing a marked increase in UKR corrosion of RUS logistics in any particular area  -  yet. UKR doesn't have the stock to waste on a feint, so I assume an uptick in strikes in a certain area will be a flag. 

Or not. The targets could be in rear areas responsible for moving material across the front if needed.  This would hit Russia’s ability to respond to a breakthrough in any area of the front. The actual target area may not become noticeable till literally right beforehand. (And could be a feint) Limit the Russian ability to shift in response. The first hint that the UA is getting ready would be I would think a concerted effort to degrade whatever iSR Russia still has. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by sburke

[poesel]

Even longer article (of course in German, though this time Swiss) about a guy from Poland delivering supplies to the front. Very interesting.

If you don't read it all (and you won't), read at least chapter one about a Ukrainian officer talking about Donbass. Spoiler: he could live without it

https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/ukraine-krieg-szczepan-twardoch-bringt-hilfsgueter-an-die-front-ld.1730385

[chuckdyke]

No problem Germany resumes its Panzerfaust-100 production. 

 

[Bulletpoint]

Quote

He says the UR-77 would have to close within 200-300 meters of Ukrainian lines to effectively clear a lane through the minefields and would be vulnerable. Instead, Russian forces are firing the line charge from a distance but they often don't detonate and the accuracy is poor.

 

This guy (from Twitter) seems to live in the 1950's where vehicles were only vulnerable at close range. 300m? Ukraine can easily whack tanks at several kilometres. I don't see how these mine clearing vehicles can ever do the job they are designed to do.

Strong wind messing with the line charge seems to be the least of the Russian worries at Vuhledar.

[Kinophile]

One final note on that Politico article about UKR training on Patriot.  The US trainers started with 2 translators,  then rapidly scaled up to 18.

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers on their way to Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine, March 22, 2023. ARIS MESSINIS / AFP"
* BMP-1

[Bearstronaut]

13 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Few SU 100's around in South Korea, Seoul Museum. This one looks in good nick. Strongly recommend a visit. Pensioners like me don't have to pay. Wonder why the nice girl at the counter asked for my ID (Drivers License). Little disappointed was not my mature good looks.

That's a very good museum. I went there several times when I was stationed in Korea. Last time I went I got volunteered to be the translator for a battalion staff ride there because I speak Korean. I explained to my commander that everything was written in English as well as Korean but he was like "SGT, none of the battalion officers speak Korean and all the other linguists are working mission so you might as well come along."