billbindc Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 2 hours ago, JonS said: China is one of the few countries with sufficient individual heft that if they said "cut it out!", everyone involved would have to at least look up from what they're doing. Not military heft (at least not yet, due to a lack of expeditionary capability), but economic. It'll be ... an interesting inflection point if/when they start wielding that power, under the guise of peacemaker. China could affect things greatly if it simply provided significant arms and ammunition to Russia. But…that would almost immediately have huge outcomes in regard to 77% of its overseas trading volume (meaning the EU and US). So…would everyone look? Sure. But China has a limited ability to actually contrain anyone. If it did, we would already be talking about Taiwan a lot more than we already are. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sross112 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 4 hours ago, chrisl said: The AWACS and JSTARS seem to reliably fly over NATO countries, unless they're flying with their ADS-B turned off over the BS. So an attack on one of them by Russia would be a much more overt act of aggression and likely leave them with an undeclared no-fly zone. Right. Which would lead to the US and Russian planes duking it out and probably losses on both sides. Which escalates further and the Black Sea Fleet sails out to support and gets sunk. Russian AA engages US planes so US SEAD starts. Escalates more. Russian rhetoric explodes and Kremlin threatens nukes. Ratchets up the readiness, opens the silos, etc to the finger over the big red button. 2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said: Difficulty with this scenario is that there are no international means for China, the UN or any nation to require anyone to stop doing anything, short of war. If there were, this war would already be over. China and about 5 seconds later every nation that has a bullseye on it is screaming for everyone to stop. Screw the ineffectual UN. This is about the actual countries and partners yelling at the US to stop. Then 10 seconds later every other country in the world starts hollering too when they realize they don't have a bullseye on them, but they have to live with the consequences of a nuclear exchange. China gets to play the leader of everybody not involved because they are the big guy that has the clout, but they are supported by everyone. They call for an immediate cessation of ALL hostilities, Ukraine included. War stops and is frozen in place. Ukraine is smart and when everyone supporting them tells them to stop or immediately all support stops,....they stop. They full well know that it is just an intermission until they have to fight Russia again, but they also know they can't do it alone. Putin gets to save himself because he has faced down the evil west and will claim it as a win. The war that they are losing horribly is over and eclipsed by the new big news. Russia survives and the new Cold War is on. Just a theory but fits the escalate to de-escalate theory and probably saves Putin. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Now, one of great mysteries of J.R.R.Tolkien lore- how orcs are born, seems to be solved. They fall out from raging BMP's. (note rare catch of other drone below and KIA/WIA from previous assault group. Does not look it ended well for attackers). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Haven't seen one of these for a while. Is UKR still able to produce Stuga's? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 hour ago, billbindc said: China could affect things greatly if it simply provided significant arms and ammunition to Russia. But…that would almost immediately have huge outcomes in regard to 77% of its overseas trading volume (meaning the EU and US). So…would everyone look? Sure. But China has a limited ability to actually contrain anyone. If it did, we would already be talking about Taiwan a lot more than we already are. China trying to be heavy handed about Ukraine would have 98% of the U.S. Congress voting for F-16s, ATACMS, 500 Bradleys and Abrams, and, and... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Neat clip. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Wagner has planes now? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, JonS said: Wagner has planes now? For a while now. Edited March 15, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Just now, JonS said: Wagner has planes now? Well -1 now apparently. So does Wagner have airfields and infrastructure too? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 I'm also wondering about aircraft markings - how would UKR know who 'owns' the plane. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 2 hours ago, sross112 said: Right. Which would lead to the US and Russian planes duking it out and probably losses on both sides. Which escalates further and the Black Sea Fleet sails out to support and gets sunk. Russian AA engages US planes so US SEAD starts. Escalates more. Russian rhetoric explodes and Kremlin threatens nukes. Ratchets up the readiness, opens the silos, etc to the finger over the big red button. Which is why I don't think it's likely they'll target the bigger aircraft cruising over NATO air space. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, chrisl said: Which is why I don't think it's likely they'll target the bigger aircraft cruising over NATO air space. pretty much. Not sure how we went from a drone over the black sea to an attack on NATO aircraft in NATO airspace in a single breath. First off I doubt Russian aircraft would even get to take one down. They'd get shot down and then Russia could complain about how an accidental overflight blah blah blah. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSarge Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, sburke said: pretty much. Not sure how we went from a drone over the black sea to an attack on NATO aircraft in NATO airspace in a single breath. First off I doubt Russian aircraft would even get to take one down. They'd get shot down and then Russia could complain about how an accidental overflight blah blah blah. It would be a total miscalculation on Putin's part. Downing a drone might get a shrug, but downing an AWACS would immediately become the top story of every Western media site. As It isn't uncommon for AWACS to be manned by service people from throughout NATO, everyone would have a dog in the fight at that point. Putin isn't that desperate yet, or is he? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) Hmm, the 'Grownups in the Room' (ROFL) seem to think the global powers are playing the ancient Chinese game of.... Risk. ...Makes sense though, cuz there's that dotted line from Alaska to Kamchatka that Sara Palin was on about. **** And as a counterpoint, apologies for tossing the cat among the Europigeons again, but according to this 'scientific poll', it appears Germany could achieve Drang Nach Osten quite peacefully now. Edited March 16, 2023 by LongLeftFlank 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing 88's Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Nice! Sorry if posted earlier... I don't think it was:Let me show you what we did with a busted grad "The rockets are lend-leaZe --from the Russians. You'll find plenty of these in nearby forests." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sequoia Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 See, the Turks still love us Yanks deep down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet 0369 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said: Sorry folks, but when I see an AA man pad launched, and it then cuts to something being hit, I become very suspicious of a “creation.” 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said: Sorry folks, but when I see an AA man pad launched, and it then cuts to something being hit, I become very suspicious of a “creation.” 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said: Hmm, the 'Grownups in the Room' (ROFL) seem to think the global powers are playing the ancient Chinese game of.... Risk. ...Makes sense though, cuz there's that dotted line from Alaska to Kamchatka that Sara Palin was on about. **** And as a counterpoint, apologies for tossing the cat among the Europigeons again, but according to this 'scientific poll', it appears Germany could achieve Drang Nach Osten quite peacefully now. Wow, Kazakhstan for the win. They team up with Mongolia again and we could be in serious trouble. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Some more potential evidence that Russia's ammo is running low" And while it's too soon to make any distinct conclusions about their use, they do underline the fact that Ukraine's ever-improving air defenses are making Russian tactical airpower rely heavily on standoff weapons, of which Russia is not known to have massive stockpiles. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/evidence-of-russia-using-grom-standoff-weapons-in-ukraine-emerges Even with precision, you still need a critical number to unpeel the IAD onion. So this is more a positive than a negative tidbit of info. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Regarding the downing of the MQ-9 Reaper drone: According to this article, it went down near Ukraine's Snake Island.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/15/russian-downing-of-us-drone-unprofessional-says-uk-defence-secretary-ben-wallace Quote The drone went down near the waters of Snake Island, near Ukraine and Romania, Kyiv said. According to this article from the Russian KP newspaper (via Google Translate), it went down 60 km from Crimea: Quote In the very first days of the Special Operation, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced to the whole world that it was closing the border area in the Black Sea and gave the coordinates of this area. Which is fully consistent with international rules. Читайте на WWW.KP.RU: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27478/4734158/ Quote Whether our divers managed to get to the wreckage of the crashed drone is still unknown. Crimean maremans are already joking that a secret Russian-American game has been played out in the Black Sea - "Who will get to the Reaper first." But if the drone really plopped into the water 60 km from Crimea, then the Russians are unlikely to let the Americans in there. Читайте на WWW.KP.RU: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27478/4734158/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 53 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Wow, Kazakhstan for the win. They team up with Mongolia again and we could be in serious trouble. Well, as Sun Tzu taught us, it's all about hoarding your Risk card sets, and bulking up in Iceland. Lol, I have a friend btw who was offered a job based in Singapore and had always assumed it was in China. When it was pointed out to him on a map, he said, "Wait, but that's 'Siam'. Why didn't you say that before?" And yes, he meant Risk. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 War. Nature's way of teaching Americans geography. ^Also includes war games. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Blazing 88's said: Nice! Sorry if posted earlier... I don't think it was:Let me show you what we did with a busted grad "The rockets are lend-leaZe --from the Russians. You'll find plenty of these in nearby forests." Not posted earlier as far as I know! That's brilliant stuff Even if all this does is harass and disrupt, that's a small investment on Ukraine's part. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.