paxromana Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: If NATO had done this, the war in Ukraine would have been over by now. If Putin had done this, the Special Military Operation would be over now and Ukraine would be de-nazified. AKA NATO needs to take a hint ... if Putin was more competent, or is replaced by someone more competent ... they need to spend all those 'peace dividends' if they don't want to be caught flat footed ... or worse. Edited March 9, 2023 by paxromana 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, paxromana said: If Putin had done this, the Special Military Operation would be over now and Ukraine would be de-nazified. Not quite. There would be a lot more Ukrainian casualties, flattened cities, and cratered fields... but ammo hasn't, until recently, been a problem for Russia. Now, if they had stocked up on competence before the war, then Ukraine would be overrun. Thankfully Putin didn't invest in that. 5 minutes ago, paxromana said: AKA NATO needs to take a hint ... if Putin was more competent, or is replaced by someone more competent ... they need to spend all those 'peace dividends' if they don't want to be caught flat footed ... or worse. The question going through the minds of many at the top of the US military and political hierarchy right now is... "how much ammo does China have socked away?" Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxromana Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: The question going through the minds of many at the top of the US military and political hierarchy right now is... "how much ammo does China have socked away?" Steve In my (limited) understanding of recent Chinese history and some of the half-arsed weapons prgrams they have 'developed' (poorly) it would be a reasonable guess that, however much, it's nowhere near Russian/ex-Soviet levels. Maybe just enough to take on Taiwan (or what they think will be needed to do that ... but I would hazard a guess they are banking on a quick victorous war ... perhaps not quite as delusionally as Putin, but lots of wishful thinking because the Great Leader has a bee in his bonnet ... ) Edited March 9, 2023 by paxromana 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 ISW's March 8th report speaks about Gazprom starting a PMC: Quote The Kremlin may be attempting to establish a new Russian government-controlled armed formation billed as a volunteer unit through the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom. A prominent Russian milblogger stated that Gazprom subsidiary Gazprom Neft is forming a volunteer formation analogous to Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS) units.[12] The milblogger originally claimed that Gazprom Neft is forming a private military company (PMC) and is actively deploying unspecified elements to occupied Donetsk Oblast before later issuing a correction that the Gazprom Neft formation is a volunteer unit, not a PMC. The milblogger claimed Gazprom Neft’s recruitment campaign generated interest in Donetsk City given that the company is offering 400,000 rubles (approximately $5,260) salary per month and additional compensation for performance bonuses.[13] The milblogger added that this offered salary is twice the amount offered by the Wagner Group, noting that a volunteer in the Gazprom Neft formation can—with bonuses—earn up to 600,000 rubles (about $7,890) per month. Gazprom Neft may be attempting to compete with Wagner for recruits from Donetsk Oblast given that Wagner is also conducting its own recruitment campaign in the area.[14] The Russian government previously authorized Gazprom Neft to create a private security organization (not a PMC) on February 6 to protect Russian energy infrastructure.[15] Ukrainian intelligence previously noted that the creation of the Gazprom Neft private security company aligns with an assessed Kremlin effort to sideline Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and mitigate the Kremlin’s dependency on Wagner Group forces.[16] A Russian milblogger also rhetorically questioned when the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will become “jealous” of the new Gazprom Neft formations and cut off their access to ammunition—likely referencing the Russian MoD’s conflict with Prigozhin. Note the difference between this new PMC and its previous security company, which we discussed here. The new PMC might simply exist to siphon would be mercenaries away from Wagner. In a sense this is what some suggested a bunch of pages ago for getting rid of Wagner... just pay them off and the problem goes away. It could be that's what Putin has tasked Gazprom with doing. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Not quite. There would be a lot more Ukrainian casualties, flattened cities, and cratered fields... but ammo hasn't, until recently, been a problem for Russia. Now, if they had stocked up on competence before the war, then Ukraine would be overrun. Thankfully Putin didn't invest in that. The question going through the minds of many at the top of the US military and political hierarchy right now is... "how much ammo does China have socked away?" Steve The faster we build new ammo and missile lines the less likely we are to find out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 hours ago, JonS said: Alas. Lol 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 13 hours ago, Fenris said: Looks like they missed actually? The last part of the video looks quite fake, with both white noise and the target mixed in the same picture. Real drone footage cuts off completely and instantaneously the moment the drone explodes, as far as I understand. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) Yuriy Lutsenko, a former politician now serving as a captain in a Ukrainian drone unit that was rotated out of Bakhmut a few days ago, said both sides have faced shortages of artillery ammunition. But Ukraine was better positioned to exploit the situation by reducing the size of Wagner’s forces from an estimated “45,000 to 7,000”, he said. Edited March 9, 2023 by DesertFox 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said: Looks like they missed actually? The last part of the video looks quite fake, with both white noise and the target mixed in the same picture. Real drone footage cuts off completely and instantaneously the moment the drone explodes, as far as I understand. All of the suicide drone videos I've seen, including from Russia's Lancet drones, have the crackly video at the end. Either they are all splicing in stock footage or there's a burst of static as the electronics fry. I honestly don't know, but in that video it sure did look like a direct hit to me. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: All of the suicide drone videos I've seen, including from Russia's Lancet drones, have the crackly video at the end. Either they are all splicing in stock footage or there's a burst of static as the electronics fry. I honestly don't know, but in that video it sure did look like a direct hit to me. Steve The ones I've seen show the footage suddenly replaced by static. Not a mix of the footage and the static in the last moments. Also, to me it looks like it flew past, so unless it was remotely detonated... Last frame before impact: Impact frame Frame after impact - now the camera is working again? Several frames follow with a kind of "VHS filter" Couple of frames later, still some of the original image remaining. How long does it take a drone camera to explode? Edited March 9, 2023 by Bulletpoint 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Yuriy Lutsenko, a former politician now serving as a captain in a Ukrainian drone unit that was rotated out of Bakhmut a few days ago, said both sides have faced shortages of artillery ammunition. But Ukraine was better positioned to exploit the situation by reducing the size of Wagner’s forces from an estimated “45,000 to 7,000”, he said. I keep meaning to say this about artillery shortages, so I guess the time has come for me to remember while typing Russia's artillery is, for the most part, traditional in that it requires many rounds to hit something. From what we can tell Russia is also suffering from worn out equipment and under trained crews, bad communications, and terribly inflexible fire control. Even if we presume that some of these things are better in Wagner's sector due to being outside of the normal Russian military mindset/structure, this is their starting point. What this means is that Russia requires far more shells to have the same effect as Ukraine's artillery. It's kinda like two guys shooting at each other with rifles. One has a worn out AK and the other a M110 sniper rifle. If both sides have a shortage of ammo, that does affect how many targets can be targeted. However, which one do you think will achieve more with limited ammo? The analogy is not perfect (as no analogy ever is), but the underlying point is solid. Russia requires lots of guns and lots of ammo to be effective because that's the reality of its system. Ukraine, on the other hand, has been successfully employing artillery similar to how NATO would. With some definite improvements here and there on top of that. If I were at the front I'd prefer to have Ukraine's artillery backing me up than Russia's. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Heartwarming! But all these guys look like they were chiseled out of granite. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-kyiv-odesa-kharkiv-40714ec02d628a95458594da6ba8a80e Uncle Joe has to get Uncle Sam off the couch. Every time something like this happens to civilians, there must be a tangible physical response. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/latvia-donates-drunk-drivers-cars-ukraines-war-effort-2023-03-09/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d Latvia is thinking out of the box. Edited March 9, 2023 by kevinkin 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: The question going through the minds of many at the top of the US military and political hierarchy right now is... "how much ammo does China have socked away?" Steve Dunno, but China is taking notes. _________ China needs the capability to shoot down low-earth-orbit Starlink satellites and defend tanks and helicopters against shoulder-fired Javelin missiles, according to Chinese military researchers who are studying Russia's struggles in Ukraine in planning for possible conflict with U.S.-led forces in Asia. The conflict has also forged an apparent consensus among Chinese researchers that drone warfare merits greater investment. China has been testing drones in the skies around Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing has vowed to bring under its control. "These unmanned aerial vehicles will serve as the 'door kicker' of future wars," noted one article in a tank warfare journal published by state-owned arms manufacturer NORINCO, a supplier to the PLA, that described drones' ability to neutralise enemy defences. _________ https://www.yahoo.com/news/studying-ukraine-war-chinas-military-021042076.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Some of Prigozhin's musicians on the wrong end of AFU artillery fire. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said: The ones I've seen show the footage suddenly replaced by static. Not a mix of the footage and the static in the last moments. Also, to me it looks like it flew past, so unless it was remotely detonated... Last frame before impact: Impact frame Frame after impact - now the camera is working again? Several frames follow with a kind of "VHS filter" Couple of frames later, still some of the original image remaining. How long does it take a drone camera to explode? Yeah, it looks like they used an "analog TV losing sync" transition to the credits. I'm not sure you can use that to extrapolate anything about what happened to the TOS-1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 It has been 5 years: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/03/09/five_years_after_a_disastrous_syria_battle_wagner_is_more_dangerous_than_ever_886224.html Might be a bit of a stretch to compare Battle of Khasham with today in Ukraine. There seems to be a group of people who think air power is the one and only answer and not just part of the can opener. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, chrisl said: Yeah, it looks like they used an "analog TV losing sync" transition to the credits. I'm not sure you can use that to extrapolate anything about what happened to the TOS-1 Could well be that the thing was taken out, and I hope so. The video ending just looks fishy to me. Edited March 9, 2023 by Bulletpoint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chibot Mk IX Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Here is a very interesting read. @LongLeftFlank While reading the post from Galeev and Suyi控 , one of the Suyi控’s opinion posted back in Jan caught my attention. He believes the Putin’s war preparation began as early as 2016. https://www.zhihu.com/question/566794678/answer/2837159962 He presents two arguments. 1, Russia formed 10 division from 2016-22. Usually people believe this expansion is a Shoigu’s office politics tricks , to appease the Russian army officer corps (because Serdyukov's reform kills a lot of promotion opportunities for the young officers) . Here Suyi控believes this is a sign of war preparation. 2, most interesting part, he states that Russia rapidly expended the ammunition production back in 2016, he put two references , https://tass.ru/ekonomika/13526061 https://realnoevremya.ru/articles/81757-opk-gotovitsya-zavalit-rynok-feyerverkami-vmesto-patronov I am not sure how strong the evidence is because usually it doesn’t tell too much if the market of ammunition + special chemicals increased 23% revenue from 2015 to 2016. But I have never heard any other similar opinion claims Putin prepare this “SMO” as early as 2016. Anyway, an interesting read. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Tired of life? Want to be like an action movie star or anime character? Apply to join Wagner today! Oh boy, these guys don't know what they are getting into. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keas66 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Trying to understand the point of last nights Russian missile attack . Seems like nothing in particular was happening geopolitical wise . Why are they wasting missiles like this ? Are they still trying to win the war by degrading Ukrainian Power Infrastructure ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosuri Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said: Here is a very interesting read. @LongLeftFlank While reading the post from Galeev and Suyi控 , one of the Suyi控’s opinion posted back in Jan caught my attention. He believes the Putin’s war preparation began as early as 2016. https://www.zhihu.com/question/566794678/answer/2837159962 Another sign to that direction is that Russian national wealth fund was flatlining until 2014, but especially since 2019 was growing significantly. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1078279/russia-national-wealth-fund-volume/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Summary here for today. Says UKR only shot down about half the incoming missiles since many were hypersonic. Says that UKR electrical system has some outages but mostly up. More terrorism by Putin will hopefully be seen by folks in EU & US. We all need to be reminded what a monster he is lest we forget (I mean, the folks on the forum won't forget, but 'we' meaning UKR allied peoples in general) Civilians killed, infrastructure damaged. But again we have to ask "Putin, is this all you got? Terror & harassment strikes once a month?". https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/9/2157092/-Ukraine-update-Bakhmut-wasn-t-of-strategic-importance-but-it-is-now 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, keas66 said: Trying to understand the point of last nights Russian missile attack . Seems like nothing in particular was happening geopolitical wise . Why are they wasting missiles like this ? Are they still trying to win the war by degrading Ukrainian Power Infrastructure ? According to this guy, it's to send a political message inside Russia - "we are still able to make Ukrainians suffer". He notes they used six of the rare hypersonic missiles, which they normally keep in reserve, just in order to get through the air defence. Edited March 9, 2023 by Bulletpoint 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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