Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

Movement on the USA armaments tor Ukraine front. Perhaps the Western tanks without Western AirPower issue isn’t going to be so black and white. If the logjam can finally be broken. Along with the damn ATACMS!

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-2-22-23/h_e8cfb3559bd5978327d401aa3bccb2d0
Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, told journalists he sees “increasing momentum” in Washington toward providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) rockets.

“I think there’s a split in the administration, at the national security council, as to how fast and what weapons to put in, but I am seeing increasing momentum towards getting both the artillery and the planes in, and in any event we can start training pilots right now so they’re ready,” McCaul told journalists in Kyiv on Tuesday after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

McCaul said Zelensky had given him a list of weapons Ukraine needed, namely F-16s and ATACMS, which can be fired from US-supplied HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and have a range of up to 300 kilometers (about 186 miles).

"I will be a very strong voice on both the ATACMS, the long-range artillery to hit the Iranian drones in Crimea, in addition to the F-16s,” McCaul said

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

support some serial mass murdering war criminal

Don't forget the CCP was born out of the same. Unless the West economically embargos China - no harm no foul. Maybe the CCP is jealous and wants a proxy to call their own. They can sit back and learn from the stresses the war places on the US and the west from top to bottom. The only sovereignty the CCP cares about is their own. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Don't forget the CCP was born out of the same. Unless the West economically embargos China - no harm no foul. Maybe the CCP is jealous and wants a proxy to call their own. They can sit back and learn from the stresses the war places on the US and the west from top to bottom. The only sovereignty the CCP cares about is their own. 

I understand how this could make sense ideologically.  It's just really stupid from a practical standpoint of what is good for China, meaning caring about their own.  Belligerence like this is simply self defeating -- where's the gain?  Stop US 'hegemony'?   We are massive trading partners, what US 'hegemony' is hurting china?  

China should be reassuring investors that it's a nice, reliable place for long term investment and supply chain needs.  I want china painted as abetting terrorism so that folks decide that "vietnam is nice this time of year".  Vietnam, malaysia, indonesia, mexico, et al, will happily take all those jobs & factories.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, womble said:

There's more to "being more like NATO than like the USSR" than "AirLandBattle" when it comes to armed forces. Basic principles like empowerment of the guy at the pointy end, treating your troops like you give a damn, not diverting their rations/pay/NVG into your own and your superiors' pockets, accepting that adaptation of plans may be necessary and failure isn't a capital crime. Basic stuff, of which there's more, doubtless, but stuff UKR will continue to benefit from learning to do more of and which RUS won't because their underlying society/principles simply can't. 

On that topic:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-canada-trainers-training-unifier-1.6755532
 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, hcrof said:

There are also forces in China which are for cooperation. They have not yet commited to helping Russia (see the post above about the Chinese visit to Moscow) or invading Taiwan. 

I agree we should be prepared but keeping our powder dry also means not pressuring China into a confrontation ourselves. Just like in the cold war, direct conflict is not inevitable. 

Wierd quoted wrong post 

Edited by Kinophile
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

WTF is China thinking?  All they are doing is making confrontation w the countries w which they have the most to lose.  It's so stupid.  Jeeebus, why on earth would you wreck your economically necessary trade relationships to support some serial mass murdering war criminal who is gonna lose in the end, even he does manage to hold some of the land.  

US now needs to go on PR campaign of all the murder & mayhem being sewn by Putler.  The PR china wants is they are being responsible in standing up for soverienty, etc.  The PR that needs to happen is that they are aiding and abetting terrorism.

Because Xi and Putin really want the same thing. Absolute totalitarian power for themselves, to be able to order executions on a whim. Everything Putin wants to do in Ukraine, Xi has already done in Xinjiang, among other places. The fact that aligning with Russia could not be less in the interest of the Chinese people matters less than nothing. It is all about maintaining the power and position of Xi, and the top tier of his faction of the CCCP. To change the Chinese calculus you must threaten the interest of those people. Which is why I think adult children of every Russian oligarch partying all over London, Ibiza, and other European playgrounds ought to be rounded up and sent home. Make it very clear it can happen to the children of the Chinese Elite currently installed in better colleges all over the U.S.. 

I would start by putting two on a plane to some airport Wagner controls, see what their dad says in his next show. Is that nice? No, but neither is trench warfare in Bakmuht. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 mind play out a Ukraine type scenario without air power, with you as NATO and the dumbest guy capable of (barely) playing Combat Mission sitting in for Bil (there is no Russian analog to Bil!).  Now picture how things would go and how things would wind up.  When I do this I come up with a pretty well smoked Russian force, especially if it is on the offense.

Steve

I think you just perfectly described my unique tactical niche... 

And we have a literal AAR to prove it! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

meaning caring about their own.

The CCP feels they are caring for their own. It's just a very narrow slice of the population labeled the chosen ones. The rest are just economic cannon fodder. Maybe China thinks the time is right, after year of observation, to give support to Russia. Why not get them addicted to the support and threaten to withdraw it a an opportune time. 

Edited by kevinkin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Now that is definitely a fair point.  The RA’s dogmatic adherence to old metrics of mass is frankly baffling.  “Look at all my mighty tanks” which I cannot man, maintain, coordinate, move to the front undetected and integrate into whatever the hell combined arms is becoming.

I again think this comes down to ability to learn - translate lived experience into shareable knowledge.  Russia (and I am looking at China as well) is a cognitively constipated outfit due to the way it power structures are built.  And it is coming back to haunt them in this war - even Stalin figured this one out at the back end.

I think a western commander would get bit, and maybe even more than once but at some point a subordinate commander is going to go “What the F#ck, sir?!”  And the healing could begin.

Funny you should mention this…

Бил Hardenberger is a slippery one, but your point is valid.

The converse of that might be fighting the Russians in the same way they fight, which negates any advantages and literally comes down to their level.

Ukraine has mainly done this at tactical levels (hard to fight NATO style with Soviet hardware) but the operational side seems to show more "westernization"...with the mentality above being the real strength. 

BTW,  is Detailed Command really a heresy if it's proven wrong with daily examples from an active Warzone? Heresies are essentially competing philosophirs, thought experiments with little grounding in reality. But we've seen actual Glorious Komrade Examples from the initial invasion itself of insanely exacting march orders with predictable Beautiful Results. 

So isn't suggesting DC as an alternative to MC and getting laughed out of the room is,  at this point, based on facts on the ground? The ZSU has a strong and instinctive MC mindset,  currently buried under some old Soviet skin but it's about to slough that off for good. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The CCP feels they are caring for their own. It's just a very narrow slice of the population labeled the chosen ones. The rest are just economic cannon fodder. Maybe China thinks the time is right, after year of observation, to give support to Russia. Why not get them addicted to the support and threaten to withdraw it a an opportune time. 

Ah, silly me.  When you said "caring for their own" I thought you meant China & chinese people.  What the hell was I thinking??  Great point -- somehow or other Xi believes this helps consolidate his own power, despite how utterly stupid it is for china overall.  Which one would think would end up being bad for Xi.  But like you said, maybe he's got some sneaky stuff up his sleeve.

Or maybe Putler promised to give him oil & gas at some insane price for the next 10 years? 

Edited by danfrodo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some folks here may be reading this fairly anodyne communique (translated from Russian/Chinese) a little too closely and seeing what they want/fear to see.

That said, I have been worried from the beginning that Chinese support will allow Russia's 1940s dumb army to hold the field far longer and kill far more Ukrainians than it otherwise would.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

That said, I have been worried from the beginning that Chinese support will allow Russia's 1940s dumb army to hold the field far longer

Even a supply of US Lend Lease Type Rolling Stock, makes the difference. The hint was humanitarian, such as better sanitation, food, drinking water etc. China will score Brownie Points in the UN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/20/2023 at 11:21 AM, The_Capt said:

You have to fight for it.

The way this is going, "fighting for it" is going to mean direct NATO involvement within the next 12-24 months, i.e. troops on the ground in Ukraine. 

For all countless money spent on this war and the claim that the Russian military is just a bunch of boobs, we're stuck now with a stalemate that has no end in sight and yes, a US government saying they're going to continue pouring funds into this latest foreign adventure, come hell or high water, and oh yeah, we're going to find Ukrainian pensions while we're at it. 

Edited by LukeFF
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

The way this is going, "fighting for it" is going to mean direct NATO involvement within the next 12-24 months, i.e. troops on the ground in Ukraine. 

For all countless money spent on this war and the claim that the Russian military is just a bunch of boobs, we're stuck now with a stalemate that has no end in sight and yes, a US government saying they're going to continue pouring funds into this latest foreign adventure, come hell or high water, and oh yeah, we're going to find Ukrainian pensions while we're at it. 

Why you are flat wrong:

  • We have spent $30 billion on this war so far, much of which is actually recycled back into the American economy.
  • That's equivalent to something like 4% of our defense budget to cripple the biggest threat to the global political order in half a century or more.
  • This war is less than a year old  and Russia has already lost about half of the territory it gained.  
  • It isn't our "foreign adventure" it is Russia's...which has repeatedly said Moldova and the Baltics are next. Which means NATO...and we certainly intend on defending it hell or high water and obviously should.
Edited by billbindc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...