How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Imagine if siberia splits off and China is its protector/benefactor

Except at this point whomever controls the 6000 nukes will likely decided ... use 'em or lose 'em ...

[Jiggathebauce]

21 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Who thinks this?  Capitalism works, overall.  It just needs some boundaries and people need some safety net.  We can (and should) argue about where the right balance is, but what do people think will replace capitalism?  State run economies are baaaaaad at running..... a state economy .   The free market, which sometimes actually exists, works -- meaning it only exists when there's the much req'd proper competition, lest things devolve rather quickly into trusts & monopolies. 

 

I could recommend you some reading on that lol. While what you're saying is sensible, the things you're advocating for that would keep the system going, are not the direction folks in charge have been going in either the government or industry. Been this way since Thatcher...

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I could recommend you some reading on that lol

 

[The_Capt]

27 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Who thinks this?  Capitalism works, overall.  It just needs some boundaries and people need some safety net.  We can (and should) argue about where the right balance is, but what do people think will replace capitalism?  State run economies are baaaaaad at running..... a state economy .   The free market, which sometimes actually exists, works -- meaning it only exists when there's the much req'd proper competition, lest things devolve rather quickly into trusts & monopolies. 

 

Oh my dear sweet hobbit, it is all the rage:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-capitalism

https://www.amazon.ca/s?k=the+end+of+capitalism&gclid=CjwKCAiA_6yfBhBNEiwAkmXy5zDxVlZbB-qEZB_W3e3pabpsITBmsDYvu9mE1ltmgTLxcVWyA1FkPhoCdm0QAvD_BwE&hvadid=208312141359&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9000685&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=15884104887862575394&hvtargid=kwd-354484366687&hydadcr=23313_10093172&tag=googcana-20&ref=pd_sl_r5hsdx43m_e

I think the major issue is the fact that in order to function it needs to expand and nothing can do this indefinitely.  And the impact of AI may break it as well - https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/07/02/how-artificial-intelligence-could-kill-capitalism/

Personally, I do not think I read in enough to have an opinion.

 

 

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The implication from the Tweet was that the US was proactively getting stuff ready for future deliveries that haven't yet been announced.  The Bradleys... I quick count looks to be 50, wasn't that the number already announced?  MRAPs were also announced, though don't remember a number.  Sustainment vehicles were also announced explicitly, IIRC, but generally they go along as the unsung heroes.

Now, if the Strykers are not intended for US Army purposes, then the author would be correct as those have only been "discussed".  I see some Avengers in there.  I don't remember if any of those have been promised yet.

Anyway, my point stands that due to training times shipping things ahead isn't a game changer.  Smart, of course, but not anything other than good logistics planning.  Having them there doesn't mean they are days away from getting into Ukrainian units.

Steve

But it does stand to my earlier note that once the seal is broken, the [Bradleys] will flow. I'd say there's a few more SeaLift ships loading or inbound with extra vehicles past the nominal replacement numbers...

[danfrodo]

our friend Denys D thinks UKR making some local counterattacks N & S of Bakhmut.  Gains measured in, literally, meters.  But let us hope this is just the beginning of rolling back some spent RU forces. 

 

[Kinophile]

Btw,  if we're use WW1 as a reference frame (and I don't disagree with this)  the Russo Ukrainian War is more like the 1st or 2nd Balkan Wars.

No alliance lock-ins, no actionable security commitments. The major current alliance is defensive and requires voting, so that's a welcome brake on automatic collective suicide. 

It's the time after this war that will make states lock themselves into alliances for perceived security, one's that are more definitively aggressive in consequences if activated. 

Tbh,  this timeframe now is more a wierd blend of pre-WW1 (the imperialistic mindset in Russia, China is alive and kicking)  and pre-WW2 (western fear of war's damage gives hostiles the wrong idea). 

This makes sense in that our current time did not just pop into existence,  the modern political structure is a twisted outgrowth of the 20th century's rivalries,  ideologies,  pressures and security conflicts. 

Of course, these had their own roots in the 19th century,  and so ad infinitum... 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

20 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Btw,  if we're use WW1 as a reference frame (and I don't disagree with this)  the Russo Ukrainian War is more like the 1st or 2nd Balkan Wars.

No alliance lock-ins, no actionable security commitments. The major Current alliance is defensive and requires voting, so that's a welcome brake on automatic collective suicide. 

It's the time after this war that will make states lock themselves into alliances for perceived security, one's that are more definitively aggressive in consequences if activated. 

Tbh,  this timeframe now is more a wierd blend of pre-WW1 (the imperialistic mindset in Russia, China is alive and kicking)  and pre-WW2 (western fear of war's damage gives hostile the wrong idea). 

This makes sense in that our current time did not just pop into existence,  the modern political structure is a twisted outgrowth of the 20th century's rivalries,  ideologies,  pressures and security conflicts. 

Of course, these had their own roots in the 19th century,  and so ad infinitum... 

Well put.

[danfrodo]

I am becoming a Gen Milley fan.  "Russia has lost strategically, operationally, and tactically"  His new remarks:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/14/2153048/-Joint-Chiefs-General-Mark-Milley-Calls-Putin-DEFEATED-Strategically-Operationally-And-Tactically

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

As to US power, I think there is a combination of Shaudenfreude/wishful thinking by some, and fear by others.

Agreed.  In a way it is similar to the people that look at the stock markets and think the ups and downs are themselves meaningful.  As the old investor thinking goes, value isn't about stock price today it is about the fundamentals.  Whatever fundamentals that the US is struggling with, so too is the rest of the world.  Which means that even if the US declines in terms of absolute power, it will still be relatively powerful by comparison.

At least as far as we can tell.  Which, historically speaking, isn't such a great way to gauge the future.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The only thing that really concerns are the deep political divisions.

There's quite a few, actually.  Internal discord is one, climate is another, dwindling resources, war with China, and of course our recent favorite... plague.  The US economy, which by extension means the world's economy, is vulnerable to tangible threats which can not be adequately prepared for or dealt with if they happen.

As I said above, relatively speaking the US will likely still remain powerful relative to other countries, but certain scenarios could mean it is only a regional power instead of a global one.

Bringing this around to Russia (I am obligated to!), this is one of the dumbest elements of Kremlin thinking.  The standard of living that Russia enjoys exists due to the West and despite the Putin regime.  They are an agent of entropy, and when you're already towards the bottom of the ladder... entropy isn't what you should be trying to encourage.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

If this war continues for another year with even similar amounts of equipment losses for the RA and the political shift of their neighbors, do we think they will ever be able to threaten them again?

Militarily?  Definitely not.  Hell, I'd even put my money on Estonia kicking Russia's arse before it has time to get an Article 4 ZOOM meeting set up.  But it still has an amazing capacity to harm its neighbors in other ways.  Look at what it's doing to Moldova as an example.

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

I don't know. I'm not as well versed in these things as some on here, but my gut tells me no. So that might be the biggest catalyst of change for a post war Russia. If they pragmatically look at it and decide that there is just no way they can compete as a big boy in the future and decide they have to change. Not sure if their egos can handle that one, but it actually might be the best hope for a shift in their thinking and political stance.

I think Russia has to break apart at the seams before its concept of self is forced into becoming something more realistic.  I see nothing in Russia today or any time before that indicates they are even interested in reassessing their status in this world.

A very long time ago I had a debate with a Russian.  Cripes, might have been 25 or more years.  All I remember about it was me hammering the guy on why he thought Russia was so great.  I asked what it has contributed economically to the world, and he couldn't provide any examples.  No inventions, no industrial processes, no finished goods, nothing.  I asked him what they have contributed culturally, and that came up with zero.  What about helping other countries with things like foreign aid, disaster relief, etc?  Nothing.  All he could come up with was a) Russia is too big to ignore and b) it has a lot of military power.  That's it, that's all they got.  If they lose all of their military power in this war they will simply fall back on the "Russia is too big to ignore".  Which is why I think that needs to be removed from the equation before anything happens.

Russia is a sad example of what happens when a society's entire culture is based on denial, wishful thinking, and grievance.

Steve

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Well put.

Thanks! 

Interestingly,  with WW1 the transformative technologies were already very mature in physical firm, with the tactical applications "simply" refining the lethality. 

With WW2 the final true nature of tanks (rapid long range maneuver)  was revealed and if anything, helped load the button to go,  as everyone had a sense of what was possible and also had realised that the first side to properly exploit those possibilities could gain an overwhelming advantage extremely early. A possibly war winning one,  as the Fall of France showed. The war had to be fought to see how it would be fought. 

This was the black curse of the Spanish Civil War -  it was long enough, intense enough and varied enough in terrain/theatres to pre-explore almost all the major technologies and military ideas of WW2. A local civil war that touched the lives of people all over the world. 

So I fear the long arm of this current Russian Invasion will touch far more than just Ukraine, and coupled with the slow avalanche of climate change will leave its bloody fingerprints on everything for the next fifty years, inaugurating a long period of gradually intensifing and spreading violent chaos. There will be no more Declarations of War, only justifying press conferences after the already-in-motion facts of invasion, destruction, occupation and subjugation. 

Happy ****ing Valentine's Day,  everyone! 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[kevinkin]

This is not your brother's MALD:

https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-is-launching-balloons-with-corner-reflectors-into-ukraine/

Given enough data and experience, these won't be too much of a problem. But a PIA until then. 

One element in stopping the keystone cops:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/12/ukraines-new-anti-tank-tactic-lay-a-minefield-then-scatter-more-mines-from-the-air/?sh=573f525f55e3

Another "flip side" opinion article appears:

Trying to kill every last Russian soldier and completely humiliate President Vladamir Putin puts Ukraine and NATO in a precarious position. If you humiliate this president enough, then there is no predicting what he might do.

No, you can't predict the future. But the West may never have a better chance to shape it to their advantage. For most of us, this is a fight for a future we will never see (age dependent). 

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-731369

Edited February 15, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

Yesterday's ISW report has a summary of some stuff going around the US news cycles:

Quote

Western reporting indicates that there continue to be Western concerns about Ukraine’s determination to hold Bakhmut. The Washington Post also reported that US defense planners assess that Ukrainian forces are unable to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive and have urged Ukraine to prioritize the spring counteroffensive over defending Bakhmut.[5] ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine.[6] Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut has forced the Kremlin to expend much of the Wagner Group as a force and commit high-value Russian airborne forces to sustain attritional advances.[7] Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut has degraded significant Russian forces and will likely set favorable conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive. Had Russian troops taken Bakhmut without significant Ukrainian resistance they could have hoped to expand operations in ways that could have forced Ukraine to construct hasty defensive positions in less favorable terrain. Therefore, Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut and undertaking an effort to set conditions for a counteroffensive are likely complementary, not mutually exclusive, activities considering that Russian forces would have continued their offensive beyond Bakhmut had Ukraine yielded the city earlier.

Seems that ISW is of the same opinion that many of us have here... Ukraine's stand at Bakhmut, as costly as it is, serves a sound military purpose of exhausting Russia resources ahead of the next campaign season.  ISW, however, doesn't seem to be as concerned as US military leaders that Ukraine will not have enough force left over to pursue offensive activities this Spring.  The US concern is part of private conversations with Ukraine that stress that at some point the West is simply going to run out of things to give Ukraine, so they need to take that into consideration.

It seems there's more evidence that Wagner isn't recruiting prisoners any more is because the Russian Army wants them for the LPR instead.

Quote

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly recruiting convicts and mimicking the Wagner Group’s treatment of convicts as cannon fodder. CNN reported that the Russian MoD had been directly recruiting prisoners who deployed to Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, into formations of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps in October 2022.[8] Convicts complained to CNN about gruesome abuses and noted that they suffered heavy casualties after they were ordered to storm Ukrainian defensive positions. CNN also obtained a recording from a deceased convict who feared that the Russian MoD would execute him after he survived an assault on Soledar, though this soldier was killed in action days later anyway. These convicts specified that the Russian MoD recruited them after Wagner Group initially overlooked them, and even accused Russian forces of conducting deliberate friendly fire against the convicts.

Seems Western sources have confirmation that LPR forces are getting convicts as they've run out of their own and the Russian military likely doesn't want to supply its own mobiks.  Haiduk had this a few pages ago.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

In other ISW news, they have decided they are so sure that Russia is about to launch an attack along the northern/central Luhansk front that they've reorganized their reporting sections to reflect this.

Later on there was an indication that along the southern front things are unstable on the Russian side.  From what I can tell ISW is expecting a return to the widespread small scale attacks we've seen through most of this war, which were only recently paused.

Quote

Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Nataliya Humenyuk reported on February 14 that Russian forces are preparing for actions in all directions along the southern axis while attempting to create the impression that they are closing in on Ukrainian positions by using sabotage and reconnaissance groups and placing checkpoints, observation posts, and ammunition warehouses on islands on the Dnipro River delta.[41] Humenyuk added that Ukrainian forces are destroying these points. Humenyuk also noted that Russian forces deployed 200 members of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to Kherson Oblast to restore order among demoralized, dissatisfied Russian units and increase pressure on the local population

Interesting about the possibility that Rosgvardia was brought in to crack heads.  Later in the report there was mention of the 1231st Regiment from Tatarstan being "withdrawn" after complaining the DPR was using them as cannon fodder.  Upon moving the unit out of the line the troublemakers were apparently sent as individual replacement cannon fodder to DPR units.  Typical Russian response... pretend to do the right thing for public consumption, then do the exact opposite in private.

Steve

[mosuri]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

A very long time ago I had a debate with a Russian.  Cripes, might have been 25 or more years.  All I remember about it was me hammering the guy on why he thought Russia was so great.  I asked what it has contributed economically to the world, and he couldn't provide any examples.  No inventions, no industrial processes, no finished goods, nothing.  I asked him what they have contributed culturally, and that came up with zero.  What about helping other countries with things like foreign aid, disaster relief, etc?  Nothing.  All he could come up with was a) Russia is too big to ignore and b) it has a lot of military power.  That's it, that's all they got.  If they lose all of their military power in this war they will simply fall back on the "Russia is too big to ignore".  Which is why I think that needs to be removed from the equation before anything happens.

Well, sounds like you had a discussion with an ignoramus TBH.

Mendeleev? Pavlov? Sakharov? Tolstoy? Tarkovsky? Tchaikovsky? Whether Russia has pulled its full weight or not is another thing but there's certainly a bit more than zero cultural achievement stemming from there.

And even with that said, I do think the country needs a lesson beat into it.

[Kinophile]

Bakhmut holds, and is getting reinforced. 

Western worries about Bahknut being a manpower trap are not thinking like Ukrainians (duh). Zaluzhny seems to feel that grinding the RUS army to a standstill is the primary shaping condition before any counter attack. That takes manpower and inevitably,  losses. 

If they can both hold Bahkmut and throw back the encircling horns then they have a real chance at at a local morale and command failure in the RUS army. Time that with a Zaporizhia assault and they can more easily protect the Eastern flank of that push to the Azov. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[Fenris]

Short (unfortunately) interview with US Army Ranger/Green Beret from Spotify podcast posted up thread.  Spotify interview is even better.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

RUS artillery losses are steadily increasing and ramping up. In the past RUS artillery losses have correlated with ongoing UKR offensives and captured terrain. That is not the case this time. Do we see increasing efficiency of counter-battery operations now in effect?

 

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

But it does stand to my earlier note that once the seal is broken, the [Bradleys] will flow. I'd say there's a few more SeaLift ships loading or inbound with extra vehicles past the nominal replacement numbers...

What I really would like to know is how good the West is in replacing material that's been sent to Ukraine and how much time does it take to produce a Leopard tank and other weapon systems. I expect the production rate will be stunningly slow, but I haven't got a clue. If the production numbers are exceptable, then I'd say we must send all we have at the moment, apart from the absolute minimal we need for our own defence.

We can't afford to lose this war. Simple as that. Not only the future of Ukraine is at stake, but that of the whole free world.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, Lethaface said:

One thing which is striking in this war is that the average (?) Russian attack seems to be typewritten on a piece of paper with 'hardcoded' timings for artillery fire without comms between the units doing the groundwork and the fires. 

While Ukraine defense is live streaming image & coordinates to their assigned artillery from a drone while fighting a comms coordinated defense, all by people who where for a large part being civilians with jobs a year ago.

I think it's related to the amount of handwritten and filled-in-by-actual-typewriter stuff we see when there are photos of official Russian documents, like some IDs, passports, shippers for the kerch bridge splody truck, etc.  Despite pretensions to modernity, RU is just not digitized to an extent anywhere near what the west is, and because it's such an alien concept it doesn't really register in your brain.  Their vehicles have mixes of a few modern radios that support digital encryption and a lot of ancient fully analog radios that don't.  They seem to get paid with some sort of actual cash - that's presumably how the military unit scams work where they have more soldiers on paper than actually exist in a unit and the commander pockets the pay of the ghosts.  At small unit levels, reliable radios are probably still relatively rare (and if not, they're probably compromised by being analog and so not used).  They really are mostly technologically backward at the mass production level, but with the ability to cobble together small numbers of modern-ish electronics if they can get them.  

So if you have to coordinate an assault involving ~200-500 guys on foot, a half-dozen tanks, some artillery 10 km back, and a couple of helicopters, but you have compromised trash for communication systems, about all you can do is give instructions and specify a timetable.  Imagine playing a game of networked CM where you're commanding a platoon in a battalion level action, but you not only don't have borg spotting, you only have view 1 and the rest of the people on your side are similarly commanding platoons in view 1.  You're all in separate locations so you can't talk, and there's no chat function in the game or on your computer.  Basically you're playing CM with slightly more feedback than Tommy.  You get a map and a timetable, and if any of your squads get out of sight you have to communicate via runners. 

You half-expect them to be using mimeographed instruction sheets, with some lucky mobik back at brigade HQ cranking the handle on the mimeo machine to get the instructions out.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, mosuri said:

Mendeleev? Pavlov? Sakharov? Tolstoy? Tarkovsky? Tchaikovsky? Whether Russia has pulled its full weight or not is another thing but there's certainly a bit more than zero cultural achievement stemming from there.

It certainly did contribute a fair share of racists and imperialists pretending to be artists - that's true. That's russian culture in a nutshell.

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

This is not your brother's MALD:

https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-is-launching-balloons-with-corner-reflectors-into-ukraine/

Given enough data and experience, these won't be too much of a problem. But a PIA until then. 

One element in stopping the keystone cops:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/12/ukraines-new-anti-tank-tactic-lay-a-minefield-then-scatter-more-mines-from-the-air/?sh=573f525f55e3

Another "flip side" opinion article appears:

Trying to kill every last Russian soldier and completely humiliate President Vladamir Putin puts Ukraine and NATO in a precarious position. If you humiliate this president enough, then there is no predicting what he might do.

No, you can't predict the future. But the West may never have a better chance to shape it to their advantage. For most of us, this is a fight for a future we will never see (age dependent). 

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-731369

Balloons with cube corners seem like wishful thinking as decoys.  A vaguely modern radar will get its speed and direction pretty quickly - velocity along the beam should come for free from doppler.  And if the radar is mounted on an E-3 or an E-8 flying on the other side of the border, Russia can't go taking shots at it. 

 

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, mosuri said:

Well, sounds like you had a discussion with an ignoramus TBH.

Mendeleev? Pavlov? Sakharov? Tolstoy? Tarkovsky? Tchaikovsky? Whether Russia has pulled its full weight or not is another thing but there's certainly a bit more than zero cultural achievement stemming from there.

And even with that said, I do think the country needs a lesson beat into it.

And do not forget Dovstoyevski,  Pushkin, Turgeniev, Chekhov,  Mussorgski, Rimsky-Korsakov etc., etc.
19th century literature and music cannot be understood without the Russian contribution. The American contribution during that century in these two fields is practically negligible compared to the Russian one. I absolutely LOVE Tchaikovsky and Tolstoi myself. 

It reminds me phrase of the character played by  Orson Welles in "The Third Man": "In Italy for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." 

OTOH I fully agree SOME people in Russia should be taught a lesson

(BTW, Switzerland had a civil war, the Sonderbundkrieg, in the 19th century, a long tradition of mercenary troops, the wars of the French revolution were also fought in Switzerland, let's not forget Suvorov's campaign there, and the Renaissance started long before the Borgias, but I guess you get the point)
 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Fernando

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, Fernando said:

And do not forget Dovstoyevski,  Pushkin, Turgeniev, Chekhov,  Mussorgski, Rimsky-Korsakov etc., etc.
19th century literature and music cannot be understood without the Russian contribution. The American contribution during that century in these two fields is practically negligible compared to the Russian one. I absolutely LOVE Tchaikovsky and Tolstoi myself. 

It reminds me phrase of the character played by  Orson Welles in "The Third Man": "In Italy for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." 

OTOH I fully agree SOME people in Russia should be taught a lesson

(BTW, Switzerland had a civil war, the Sonderbundkrieg, in the 19th century, and the Renaissance started long before the Borgias, but I guess you get the point)

 

Don't leave out Bulgakov.

Or that they provided inspiration for the Klingon vs Federation theme in ST:TOS.