How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Whole thing has a Dr Strangelove feel to it.  If it was a Chinese ISR asset then this is a major blunder on their part.  If shot down, and US-Canada have every right to do that, we are talking captured equipment, attribution and a whole host of diplomatic bum-pain.  Compared to the WW3 brinksmanship going on in Eastern Europe this is actually kinda cute and a pleasant distraction.  Now if there are any weapons on the balloon, this is going to get pulling-a-gun-in-a-bar-trivia-contest unfunny really quick.

One possibility is that it is purely to test what the US response is like. Much like all those US and Russian bomber flights along the edge of each others airspace, which were mostly to gather data on detection ranges, response times and scales.

China is seeing what the US reaction is - how soon they saw the balloon, how aggressively they responded to it.

I wonder if it might be intended to have echoes of the Japanese fire balloons in WW2.

Another possibility: this is actually relatively routine, but the US is making a big noise about it now for various political reasons (the cynic in me wonders if there is some USAF funding decisions pending in the near future...)

[dan/california]

A coupe of random thoughts about the balloon. Clearly the U.S.is treating it as a dig deal diplomatically. We could demand the Chinese land it immediately. Although I don't think we would do that publicly unless they had already said yes privately. Of course it could "malfunction" and land after private communications. 

Assuming non of these things occur it will inevitably move out over water eventually. Do you gentlemen think we will shoot it down and recover it then? Or just let it go.

[TheVulture]

11 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Another possibility: this is actually relatively routine, but the US is making a big noise about it now for various political reasons (the cynic in me wonders if there is some USAF funding decisions pending in the near future...)

On that front, a snippet from CNN:

A US official said there were similar incidents with suspected Chinese surveillance balloons over Hawaii and Guam in recent years. On Thursday, a senior defense official said, “Instances of this activity have been observed over the past several years, including prior to this administration.”

[akd]

 

[cesmonkey]

In today's announcement, I don't see GLSDB specifically being mentioned.
Maybe  call it HIMARS ammunition?

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3287992/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces a significant new package of security assistance for Ukraine. This includes the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $425 million, as well as $1.75 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds

Apparently it was this:

Precision-guided rockets;

Quote

Q:  Just a (inaudible) to specify on that one — within the — in the announcement, there's a — one line that says "precision-guided rockets."  Is that the Ground Launched —

GEN. RYDER:  That is the — that is the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3288141/pentagon-press-secretary-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press-briefing/

Edited February 3, 2023 by cesmonkey
Found updated info

[panzermartin]

Oh cripes, we get tens of violations from turkish warplanes everyday for decades deep in the agean, that balloon story is almost cute. Poor thing got lost so many miles away from home

[poesel]

Strange nobody posted this:

She knew it 40 years ago!

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And congrats to Kevin for breaking the 2000 barrier.  Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy

Steve

Well not like breaking the sound barrier, but at this stage breaking any barriers is some kind of achievement. Next on deck is shooting my age in golf. I can't imagine what CM will be like by then. 

Edited February 3, 2023 by kevinkin

[danfrodo]

31 minutes ago, akd said:

 

Hopefully the folks on this forum will not behave in the same manner as cable news.  Or at least start a new thread about it.

edit: links to Nena excluded, of course.  

Edited February 3, 2023 by danfrodo
edit

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

“NBC News also reported that F-22 Raptors from Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, along with at least one E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) radar plane were sent to the area as deliberations were ongoing about whether or not to try to bring it down. Nellis is not home to any combat-coded units equipped with the F-22, suggesting those aircraft may have been diverted from the ongoing Red Flag 23-1 exercise being run from that base. The War Zone reached out to the Pentagon for more information, but was told no additional details could be provided at this time.” https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinas-spy-balloon-over-montana-is-part-of-a-larger-more-troubling-pattern

On ADS-BExchange I've seen a couple E-3s and a couple Rivet Joints in the US Upper Midwest/Plains area, plus a Rivet Joint headed up to western Canuckistan, presumably to follow up on reports of another balloon spying on @The_Capt in his Yukon lair.  They'll eventually figure out this is where he's posting and maybe stop sending balloons.  You can be assured that every transmission is being slurped and recorded for further analysis (both from The_Capt and the balloons).  It's pretty certain that US and Canada probably both have been watching the balloon for a while and only had to admit its presence publicly when it got spotted by regular people.

I also read an unconfirmed report that the USAF does have the capability to retrieve the balloon.  It doesn't surprise me that much - the basic tech is old and the main issues are size of the balloon and altitude.  If they can snag the harness and snip off the balloon envelope behind the plain they can recover the whole payload intact.  

There's probably some interesting diplomacy going on behind the scenes to come up with a story, apology, and public response agreeable to both the US and China.  Unless the balloon has a small telescope on board (possible) it probably can't really get anything you wouldn't get from google earth, anyway.

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, the most cuious thing is that proven defence against them seems to be relatively simple- reinforced net around every vehicle. But that would probably took a lot of extra effort on part of the crews in putting them up and down every time.

UA probably have a lot of cope cages that they could cut off captured/destroyed RU tanks, remove most of the cagey stuff from (leaving the frame) and then use to support netting.

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, akd said:

 

.... As it should.

Of all the CRAP that gets posted on TV (admittedly I haven't watched cable in ~15 years) things like this are important.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

On ADS-BExchange I've seen a couple E-3s and a couple Rivet Joints in the US Upper Midwest/Plains area, plus a Rivet Joint headed up to western Canuckistan, presumably to follow up on reports of another balloon spying on @The_Capt in his Yukon lair.  They'll eventually figure out this is where he's posting and maybe stop sending balloons.  You can be assured that every transmission is being slurped and recorded for further analysis (both from The_Capt and the balloons).  It's pretty certain that US and Canada probably both have been watching the balloon for a while and only had to admit its presence publicly when it got spotted by regular people.

I also read an unconfirmed report that the USAF does have the capability to retrieve the balloon.  It doesn't surprise me that much - the basic tech is old and the main issues are size of the balloon and altitude.  If they can snag the harness and snip off the balloon envelope behind the plain they can recover the whole payload intact.  

There's probably some interesting diplomacy going on behind the scenes to come up with a story, apology, and public response agreeable to both the US and China.  Unless the balloon has a small telescope on board (possible) it probably can't really get anything you wouldn't get from google earth, anyway.

Does this mean... The balloon has gone up? 

. 

... 

[Zeleban]

 

[kevinkin]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/balloons-called-top-delivery-platform-for-nuclear-emp-attack

Preppers everywhere might break into their stash tonight over this report. 

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/balloons-called-top-delivery-platform-for-nuclear-emp-attack

Preppers everywhere might break into their stash tonight over this report. 

Yes, I'll file this one next to the 'covid vaccine killing millions' and 'UKR war is a hoax and refugees are all crisis actors' files.  Note these are actually a thing on newsmax type sites.

[Beleg85]

Murz ranting again, those who predict Russian ability to attack is much overrated will like it:

Note though, it is his personall opinion, so we shouldn't stick too much to it.

[Fenris]

Go-pro footage from a Finnish volunteer

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Murz ranting again, those who predict Russian ability to attack is much overrated will like it:

Note though, it is his personall opinion, so we shouldn't stick too much to it.

The AFU needs to find that unit that is on its fourth batch of Mobiks, and quietly enquire if they want spend the rest of the war someplace warm and safe outside of Lviv. Might create a nice little hole to drive a brigade or three thru.

[JonS]

On 1/31/2023 at 9:46 PM, panzermartin said:

I remember one basic argument of Russian military collapse a few months ago was that Russia was running out of micro chips essential for manufacturing precision weapons. And China would be too afraid to provide these because of West's reaction. Well neither happened, there is a surge of chip imports and China was more than willing to provide these. 

There is a chart floating around that seems to show Russian imports of chips has ~doubled c.f. a year ago. I assume the numbers on the chart are correct - I have no reason to doubt them, and no way to verify them.

Ah, here it is:

The thing is, the chart says nothing about the VOLUME of chips being imported, it only refers to the VALUE of those chips. If Russia is paying four times as much - because: sanctions - then they're only receiving half as many chips this January as last.

 

Edit: What the hell? The right tweet shows in the preview, but then this loss summary shows up when posted. The one I'm referring to is from @elinaribakova , dated 3.25am, 31 Jan 2023

Edit2: grr, and now it's displaying correctly. I'll leave the first edit in case things go screwy again.

Edited February 4, 2023 by JonS

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, JonS said:

There is a chart floating around that seems to show Russian imports of chips has doubled c.f. a year ago. I assume the numbers on the chart are correct - I have no reason to doubt them, and no way to verify them.

Ah, here it is:

The thing is, the chart says nothing about the VOLUME of chips being imported, it only refers to the VALUE of those chips. If Russia is paying four times as much - because: sanctions - then they're only receiving half as many chips this January as last.

That is a solid deduction.  I have no doubt that there is price gouging going on with respect to Russia on both imports and exports.  Russia’s trade position is pretty vulnerable as its market has shrunk pretty dramatically.  As has been repeated here many times “well the whole world is not the west”, well that is true but the west does do business with the pretty much the entire world. This means that open and free trading with Russia at this point is going to get noticed and may have repercussions, both above and below water lines.  

Then those who do trade with Russia, they are going to be in a position to jack up prices or push exports from Russia down.

[danfrodo]

50 minutes ago, JonS said:

There is a chart floating around that seems to show Russian imports of chips has ~doubled c.f. a year ago. I assume the numbers on the chart are correct - I have no reason to doubt them, and no way to verify them.

Ah, here it is:

The thing is, the chart says nothing about the VOLUME of chips being imported, it only refers to the VALUE of those chips. If Russia is paying four times as much - because: sanctions - then they're only receiving half as many chips this January as last.

 

Edit: What the hell? The right tweet shows in the preview, but then this loss summary shows up when posted. The one I'm referring to is from @elinaribakova , dated 3.25am, 31 Jan 2023

Edit2: grr, and now it's displaying correctly. I'll leave the first edit in case things go screwy again.

Is there also a chance that the numbers show a discrepancy between pre-war and post war?  Pre-war when the chips would've already been part of some other product/circuit board and not registered as 'chip' sales.  Post-war when RU has to import chips to make their own circuit boards from 'scratch'.  So RU can't import finished products and is importing components instead, which is has to tailor to whatever devices.

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, poesel said:

Strange nobody posted this:

She knew it 40 years ago!

Yeah, that and The Fifth Dimension (upupandaway), but Steve has warned us that excessive meming is the handmaiden of bourgeois deviationism.

But... page 2001!

EEEEEEeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeEEEE!!!!!

[Blazing 88's]

3 hours ago, Fenris said:

Go-pro footage from a Finnish volunteer

 

 

"There went Kake Randelin" This guy cracks me up!

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

The thing is, the chart says nothing about the VOLUME of chips being imported, it only refers to the VALUE of those chips. If Russia is paying four times as much - because: sanctions - then they're only receiving half as many chips this January as last.

Ah, I had missed the fact the chart shows value and not volume.  Great observation.

Dan also got me thinking about another thing.  This is comparing demands since the war started with the demand during peace time.  We know Russia has burned through years, if not decades, of weaponry that requires these chips.  Let's say they burned through 10 years worth of peacetime production, then we should see 10 times the volume of chips purchased to equal what has already been expended.  Even if we assume Russia is paying exactly the same price now as before (which is certainly not the case), they haven't increased imports enough to compensate for less than 1.33 years of peace time production.

If we adjust for price gauging, my guess is Russian chip import volume is still below what was imported prewar for one year's production.  If they expended 10 years worth of munitions in 1 year, then the production they do in 2023 will be about 10% of what they used in 2022.

Steve