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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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8 minutes ago, Huba said:

Awesome, it means it will be equipment form BW stock! Hopefully it will also mean no more block for industry selling what they have on their hands.

Let´s hope so. AFAIK there are still 88 Leo 1A5 with Rheinmetall and additional 100 1A5 with FFG, plus 50 odd Leo II in the industry.

However lets wait how many Leo II A4/A5/A6/PL/ES they can scrape together to be sent over.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

That only says that the opposition (CDU) wants to discuss the topic. No confirmation whatsoever.

"On Wednesday, January 25, 2023, the Bundestag will discuss the question of possible deliveries of Leopard tanks from Germany to Ukraine. The topical hour was set up at the request of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, which wants to "end the German government's Leopard blockade" and fears a loss of confidence by the German government among allies. (ste/24.01.2023)"

Edited by Butschi
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3 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

great news!  Now the question I have is what do we expect these to provide once in battle in May/June?  My perception is that there's much better survivability.  Much better optics.  So in an actual fight I'd expect that these would have some higher chance of surviving ATGM or tank hit than the current T64/72/80s.  Also I'd expect the better spotting to play a big role in getting ordnance onto targets quickly and thereby reducing the amount of incoming ATGM/tank fire.

Do y'all think these perceptions are true?  I understand that these aren't wonder weapons.  I just wonder how much better a combined arms attack would be w these as compared to current soviet tanks.

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27 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I haven't seen this confirmed though. I would have expected a high level announcement on TV if a decision was made. Nothing in "heute". Maybe later...

If SPIEGEL reports it, it is generally trustworthy. They usually have good and reliable sources and are not prone to spit out information just to be first.

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32 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

The Netherlands will apparently send 18 Leopard 2.

 

 

We should all learn from Der Zeitgeist, who throughout all this noise stayed calm and basically said "it'll happen, just be patient".  Many of us, like me, were losing our minds and it's clear we should've just been more patient.

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Now "Tagesschau" confirmed it, it seems.

Edit: Tagesschau started saying Germany is going to deliver tanks according to "ARD Hauptstadtstudio". They went on that an official announcement about what was decided is probably going to come tomorrow. So, seems the info is probably true but it isn't official, yet.

Edited by Butschi
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36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

great news!  Now the question I have is what do we expect these to provide once in battle in May/June?  My perception is that there's much better survivability.  Much better optics.  So in an actual fight I'd expect that these would have some higher chance of surviving ATGM or tank hit than the current T64/72/80s.  Also I'd expect the better spotting to play a big role in getting ordnance onto targets quickly and thereby reducing the amount of incoming ATGM/tank fire.

Do y'all think these perceptions are true?  I understand that these aren't wonder weapons.  I just wonder how much better a combined arms attack would be w these as compared to current soviet tanks.

Yeah, not wonder weapons. They are just going to give a significant edge. They are going to be a superior system to anything that Russia has. Against a T90M the gap might not be huge(depending on the exact models) in all aspects but as a whole it is a big gap.

RUS seems to have significant lack of modernized armored equipment. They will mostly be facing the tech they were designed to overmatch against. This would result in outcomes like seen in the gulf war in terms of tank to tank battles that happened. 

With these you are likely to find the target first, shoot first, penetrate and even get a way with being hit yourself. Ruskies will be in inverted situation on all these points.

A true overmatch would be newest model APS equipped MBTs. That would be on the level of driving to the highest spot and shooting away.  (not literally)

There is also a large fleet of "unaccounted for" modern RUS tanks. Maybe these are going to be pulled to the front if they exist at all. (of course if we have 50% loss rate in visually confirmed total loss, that might mean the actually operational loss rate is closer to 100%)
image.thumb.png.2fa0e78e606f16cbd171c7d51ae7c3c4.png

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5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is the biggest news this year for the war. And there is big competitions so that is saing much:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html
image.png.6cc0ea1e332a8f8e9ca553f857e13237.png

image.png.18c02ebc80bdb34677026a6de1a1138e.png

May be bigger news than the tanks, oh my.  If UKR has increasing artillery superiority RU is in serious trouble.

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28 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

May be bigger news than the tanks, oh my.  If UKR has increasing artillery superiority RU is in serious trouble.

I'd love to see the projected production of PGK fuses to add to that :D Another argument for time NOT being on Russia's side. 

Edited by Huba
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1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

If they could convice Greece and Spain to replace their Leo IIs with M1 Abrams tanks, that would free up a significant number for use in Ukraine.

Can understand why Greece needs Leo deterrent re their ancient enemy Turkey, but Spain and Portugal together have the largest reservoir of Leos in Europe and it's unclear why quite a number of those could not be spared.  

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56 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This would result in outcomes like seen in the gulf war in terms of tank to tank battles that happened. 

That's only true if you believe the only counter to a tank is another tank, and/or the Russians are dumb enough to try and play your game.

Oh, wait. We already agreed: Russia sux. Carry on.

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