How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

@The_Captet al

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/16/it-did-blow-a-flame-jet-so-nobody-inside-survived/

Ref how vulnerable Tanks are to squad ATGMs. Obviously we know this,  but he also talks what would be possible counters. 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

The Russian is very sorry that he did not beat the Polish tourists at a resort in Europe. It seemed to him that the Poles looked at him without due respect. Dear European friends, if you meet a Russian on the street, show him all the necessary signs of respect, otherwise you risk being beaten

Best of all the arrogant idiot thinks he would win all the fights he starts.  Maybe his first victim will have friends and fellow citizens (allies) who would jump into the fray to help their friend?   Maybe his victim does lots of crossfit or martial arts and will break him into pieces?  he does seem to sum up modern RU strategic thinking rather well.  

edit:  ooops, darnit, just saw post where a Pole provoked the Russian.  Dang it, I hate it when facts get in the way of a good story.

Edited January 17, 2023 by danfrodo
edit

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Surprising given the levels of mis/dis information some of these guys were pushing.  I would have figured Russian-central would just let them keep rolling, just another example of Russia burning every good idea.

I am pretty sure we are well past "good and instructive conversations" once the metal started flying.  As you note, they are now "the enemy".  Probably a little while before we can re-engage in useful dialogue. 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

The Russian is very sorry that he did not beat the Polish tourists at a resort in Europe. It seemed to him that the Poles looked at him without due respect. Dear European friends, if you meet a Russian on the street, show him all the necessary signs of respect, otherwise you risk being beaten

I am morally offended that their are still Russian tourists in Europe to be mad about anything. At the same time s this idiot less of a problem being an annoying draft dodger on an Austrian ski slope than he is as a bullet sponge in the Donbas?

There might be some level of propaganda value in making sure the mobiks who ARE being used as bullet sponges in the Donbas know that guys like this one are talking tough at apres ski while they are busy dying.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am morally offended that their are still Russian tourists in Europe to be mad about anything. At the same time s this idiot less of a problem being an annoying draft dodger on an Austrian ski slope than he is as a bullet sponge in the Donbas?

There might be some level of propaganda value in making sure the mobiks who ARE being used as bullet sponges in the Donbas know that guys like this one are talking tough at apres ski while they are busy dying.

CEE countries that enacted the visa ban did a favor not only to themselves, but also to regular Russian civilians who wouldn't know better and decided to move there for the time being. I'm sure this type of incidents would be happening all over the place if you'd suddenly dump 50K Russians in Warsaw for example. A LOT of very nasty emotions was awaken in people due to this war...

[holoween]

28 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@The_Captet al

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/16/it-did-blow-a-flame-jet-so-nobody-inside-survived/

Ref how vulnerable Tanks are to squad ATGMs. Obviously we know this,  but he also talks what would be possible counters. 

This i think is the main takeaway

Quote

we found they had no other armor support in the area, and no infantry for perimeter defense.

lone tanks are extremely vulnerable and have always been.

[Zeleban]

33 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

edit:  ooops, darnit, just saw post where a Pole provoked the Russian.  Dang it, I hate it when facts get in the way of a good story.

That's exactly what I was talking about. There is no need to provoke the Russians, otherwise you risk being beaten, look what is happening now in Ukraine. I'm sure if we showed more respect for Russia, everything would be completely different (And remember the most important thing Russians are always provoked, they never start first)

[poesel]

Sorry, but I think this is pertinent to the discussion...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Maybe so, but I didn't even write about that? Do you refer to what I said about the US meddling in EU internal affairs? I do think that point should be mentioned. This was not about what I think but about what many less well meaning factions within the EU will make of it.

Yup, I referred to US meddling into EU. Which in itself would most probably would not exist in current form without significant American help, even guidance in many fields, including very fruitful and often tytanic dyplomatic effort.

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

he Treaties of Lissabon and the previous ones made it pretty clear that the EU is supposed to be more than a free trade zone and a mechanism to transfer money to poorer countries.

Of course, it was also about using cheap labour, rising markets etc. in the Western countries interests, which many of them benefits for this day. You really think all these states agreed to extend Union because of altruism? It was mutually-beneficial economical agreement. One can walk a random street in any major CEE city and look at names of brands, banks, private companies, media etc. 30-70% are German or other western capital. And this is just small part of the story- for example some of them have very preferrable tax cuts negotiated long time ago. This long-term investements and huge benefits for our western neighbours and their industry somehow never occur to people commenting that "Central Europeans are money-grabbers on Westerners", looking only narrowly at money flowing through EU institutions.

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

You have to admit that over the last decade or so there was much rhetoric that boiled down to "we want all the benefits but don't meddle in our affairs".

Yes, unfortunatelly it's true- EU is unfortunatelly shaken from inside by these and sadly current populistic Polish government plays its noninsignificant role here. But they are not Britts, they don't want Polexit, and -contrary to opinion of many disgruntled Westerners- they are not "anti-EU" by any means. Putting problems with juristiction over courts aside, this is just different vision of Union than federalist one; many other countries (Italy, Czechs etc.) also seem to be getting into this direction as well. Nowhere was written that Brussels should extend its competences nor pursue progressivist policies indefinitelly as the current narrative course is, after all. In more and more dangerous international environment, differences between various nations/states also show fundamentally different perception of threats and challanges.

 

To change topic, small snippet from Russian milbloger:

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

Just now, Kinophile said:

@The_Captet al

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/16/it-did-blow-a-flame-jet-so-nobody-inside-survived/

Ref how vulnerable Tanks are to squad ATGMs. Obviously we know this,  but he also talks what would be possible counters. 

Matches a lot of what we have been seeing and reading about:

 This is part of the problem with Russian tactics. Tanks in groups are vulnerable, but as singles or duos with no direct support they are almost assuredly dead.

The NLAW is crazy effective, light, easy to use, pretty cheap, and will kill most anything on the battlefield. We like them because we can launch them in trees without creating wood shrapnel from the back blast. With the NLAW, I can take a guy with no AT experience at all, and in less than an hour he will be deadly to vehicles, including main battle tanks.

The counters are problematic -

As this weapon type get smaller, lighter, less expensive and more wide-spread, even down to the small team level, this will pose a real problem for vehicles in contested areas. The counter to it I suppose is support, air, troops and drones, so you can push the weapons out of range. I am no grand strategist nor a a tactical wizard, but, based on what I am seeing, This is something that seems – like drones – game changing to some degree.

Two major issues are 1) Range, and 2) Visibility Asymmetry.

1.  NLAW is good out to 1000m.  That is pretty far, but maybe doable to sweep out with UAVs etc.  NLAW 2.0 or other systems can reach out to well past 3000m (some Spike systems can reach out 10s of kms).  Once you extend to that range the amount of area in the threat circle around the tank get insanely high - 1000m = roughly 3.14 million sq meters to "sweep".  2500 m = 19.6 million sq ms.  10,000m = 314 million sq ms.  UAS/UGV everywhere, multi-spectral automated systems.  I am not sure how we are going to do it to be honest.

2.  A large hot 60t peice of metal is orders of magnitude easier to find and fix, via many means, than two guys hiding in a ditch/bush/culvert.  So in the competition to "see first, shoot first" the tank is at a serious disadvantage.  In facr one can see the tank-system (i.e. logistics) from space, which is its own problem.

APS makes the most sense but from what I have read ATGMs are way out in front.  Spotting a smart-missile that is using passive targeting is incredibly hard.  Spotting such a missile that is using a high parabola approach, to the point it is essentially a loitering munition.  Stopping or spoofing that missile is next-level, and this is before sub-munitions and UGVs (e.g. walking minefields) make an appearance.

It is going to be an interesting few years at least....maybe longer.    

[Huba]

In general I try to not post videos that are just emotionally loaded without being informative, but this one deserves to be seen. Imagine this lady's horror:

 

[kevinkin]

Another essay that taps the breaks on hell bent for glory enthusiasm entering 2023.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-nato-eu-us-alliance-solidarity/

At the same time, however, the British and U.S. governments have also made it clear that they will not give Ukraine all the weapons it wants or directly enter the conflict by imposing a no-fly zone or deploying troops. That reluctance reflects an obvious divergence of interests between the West’s and Kyiv’s. 

But if Western stakes were indeed as dire as Ukraine’s, if the future of the world order hung on the course of this conflict and our democracy was at stake along with Ukraine’s, then why wouldn’t NATO be willing to join the fight for it?
Crucially, this rhetoric-policy gap could also raise excessive Ukrainian expectations of support.

But those insisting the West should give Ukraine whatever it wants ignore that what Ukraine wants partly depends on what the West will give them — or at least what it says it will. And claims of fully aligned interests may fuel Ukrainian dreams of total victory that are probably untenable and only conducive to prolonging war.

These guys are from Cato, so take their opinions as such. To say not all interests align, goes without saying. They just don't see this war as a fight on the fields of Armageddon. They can't get past the WMD threat. "Let's take evil, if we can retain good." However, if some in leadership do believe and act as though this is a war of biblical proportions, where is the no-fly? Where are NATO's boots and tracks? There does seems to be a rhetoric-policy gap which Putin probably sees as a sign of weakness or least least a path to use for survival. 

 

[Kraft]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Aw I kinda miss the pro-Russian crowd @dbsapp where are you?!

They all bolted pretty damn quick after 24 Feb as their entire Russian narratives fell apart.  It would be interesting to hear their twisted view of things, but that would just descend into none sense pretty quick.  Of course some of them could be pushing sunflowers by now for all we know.

There was also a long term member here @DMS who started discussion about Bucha and other mass graves all being fake because Russians do no such thing.

In April, Im pretty sure that alone added 20 pages to this thread. Last active mid-July.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Kraft
Remembered :)

[Huba]

Netherlands will join the Patriot effort and send a battery to Ukraine. It increases the number of pledged systems to 3 Patriot and one SAMP/T batteries. Triple that and UA will have a comprehensive medium-range coverage. 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

15 minutes ago, Kraft said:

There was also a long term member here @DMS who started discussion about Bucha and other mass graves all being fake because Russians do no such thing.

In April, Im pretty sure that alone added 20 pages to this thread. Last active July.

I also remember some guy on this topic claiming that the people in those videos of killed and injured Ukrainian civilians were "crisis actors".  I think he was eventually banned.

This was before I joined this forum and was just a lurker.

[Bufo]

17 minutes ago, Kraft said:

There was also a long term member here @DMS who started discussion about Bucha and other mass graves all being fake because Russians do no such thing.

I have a suspicion of who partook in the very first wave on 24. Feb.: @Sgt.Squarehead

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, kraze said:

Not only that but the bastard apparently lives without issues in Norway right now and the sole fact of him not being immediately sent to Ukraine to stand trial for warcrimes he committed (not to mention breaking international criminal law related to mercenaries that Norway is a signee of) pisses me to no end.

He was killing Ukrainians for 3 months and now he wants a chill life in a better country that "has microwaves and toilets" (as he himself states in a videocall with some russian blogger).

I mean how the hell is he in Norway still? How?

Prigozhyn answered in own TG to Norwegian "Aftenposten" media about Anrey Medvedev. He told as if Medvedev had Norwegian citizenship and fought in Norwegian battalion "Nidhyogg" (!!!) in PMC Wager (I suppose, almost all "Norwegians" in this unit were Russians with Norwegian/other Scandinavian citizenship). He also told as if Medvedev should have been accountable for mistreatment attempt of POWs, but escaped. 

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Matches a lot of what we have been seeing and reading about:

 This is part of the problem with Russian tactics. Tanks in groups are vulnerable, but as singles or duos with no direct support they are almost assuredly dead.

The NLAW is crazy effective, light, easy to use, pretty cheap, and will kill most anything on the battlefield. We like them because we can launch them in trees without creating wood shrapnel from the back blast. With the NLAW, I can take a guy with no AT experience at all, and in less than an hour he will be deadly to vehicles, including main battle tanks.

The counters are problematic -

As this weapon type get smaller, lighter, less expensive and more wide-spread, even down to the small team level, this will pose a real problem for vehicles in contested areas. The counter to it I suppose is support, air, troops and drones, so you can push the weapons out of range. I am no grand strategist nor a a tactical wizard, but, based on what I am seeing, This is something that seems – like drones – game changing to some degree.

Two major issues are 1) Range, and 2) Visibility Asymmetry.

1.  NLAW is good out to 1000m.  That is pretty far, but maybe doable to sweep out with UAVs etc.  NLAW 2.0 or other systems can reach out to well past 3000m (some Spike systems can reach out 10s of kms).  Once you extend to that range the amount of area in the threat circle around the tank get insanely high - 1000m = roughly 3.14 million sq meters to "sweep".  2500 m = 19.6 million sq ms.  10,000m = 314 million sq ms.  UAS/UGV everywhere, multi-spectral automated systems.  I am not sure how we are going to do it to be honest.

2.  A large hot 60t peice of metal is orders of magnitude easier to find and fix, via many means, than two guys hiding in a ditch/bush/culvert.  So in the competition to "see first, shoot first" the tank is at a serious disadvantage.  In facr one can see the tank-system (i.e. logistics) from space, which is its own problem.

APS makes the most sense but from what I have read ATGMs are way out in front.  Spotting a smart-missile that is using passive targeting is incredibly hard.  Spotting such a missile that is using a high parabola approach, to the point it is essentially a loitering munition.  Stopping or spoofing that missile is next-level, and this is before sub-munitions and UGVs (e.g. walking minefields) make an appearance.

It is going to be an interesting few years at least....maybe longer.    

 

We may simply be entering an era that favors defense over offense if the opposing side are anything like equal.   All of the new toys can be used on offense but it is slower than simply grinding the other side under your tank treads. It is probably MUCH slower if you don't have a large tech overmatch.

[cesmonkey]

Quote

It will likely take four to six weeks for Ukrainian Challenger 2 tank crews to be ready, a former British Army Royal Tank Regiment training officer has said.

Cliff Allum said: "The art of driving a T72 is very different indeed to driving a Challenger 2, but it is not rocket science."

 

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Or editing the video to show only the shells that hit?

If Ukraine has enough precision guided munitions to spend several of them hitting a couple of guys in a trench, then I think that is a very positive sign about their ammo stocks.

These were 155 mm, but not precision ammo. You can see that dispersion of explosions too big for Excaliburs. We still have insufficient of ammo and can't allow to waste several so expensive ammo to eliminate platoon of zeks.

Drone adjusting + better accuracy of 155 mm barrels + experience of artillerists = success. 

If since 2015 UKR arty came from battery fire to platoon fire, that now we passed mostly to 1 (2) barrel(s) + drone. In most cases it has better effect than traditional Soviet "battery (platoon) have to fire X shells to suppress Y sq.m target"

Edited January 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

57 minutes ago, Huba said:

In general I try to not post videos that are just emotionally loaded without being informative, but this one deserves to be seen. Imagine this lady's horror:

 

How is this not the only thing on CNN? It should certainly be on every screen at the Ramstein conference this Friday, continuous loop.

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I also remember some guy on this topic claiming that the people in those videos of killed and injured Ukrainian civilians were "crisis actors".  I think he was eventually banned.

This was before I joined this forum and was just a lurker.

Oh dear god we were so innocent back then.  “Ukraine has staged hundreds of civilian strikes and thousands of deaths!”  What is scary is that there are people still trying to peddle this.  Seriously, a real war is a wake up call on all our BS, or at least it should be.

Edited January 17, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

We may simply be entering an era that favors defense over offense if the opposing side are anything like equal.   All of the new toys can be used on offense but it is slower than simply grinding the other side under your tank treads. It is probably MUCH slower if you don't have a large tech overmatch.

We have been caught here before.  In fact it drove the operationalization of the tank itself.  My guess is that UGVs may be the game changer, but I am still not sure in which direction.

[Kinophile]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

We may simply be entering an era that favors defense over offense if the opposing side are anything like equal.   All of the new toys can be used on offense but it is slower than simply grinding the other side under your tank treads. It is probably MUCH slower if you don't have a large tech overmatch.

I wonder if it's so unbalanced. A defense in this kind of environment would need to be extremely jelly-like,  able to fire,  zip away to hide,  then fire again, moving backwards/forwards/laterally. The trouble with defence is that you're defending something,  usually an area, making you a target than can be id' to a general location then that targeting refined to find you. 

Defence itself might shift in form.to a smart formation with an amorphous, diffuse border zone (not edge) that is thickened in response to attack and can flow/defend forwards. Determining who is attacking/defending could be very hard to know for a while. 

[Haiduk]

Except videos of Madyar, where UKR artillery hit platoon-sized enemy units and 45th arty brigade, which took out 25 zeks (this happened north fronm Soledar in 2 km near Rozdolivka village) here several other examples, why in this war we can see rarely classical direct clashes "batatlion vs. battalion" like in CM and why troops forced to came on small group tactic in attack and defense with infantry on the edge and vehicles, hide in deep rear, which mostly either support or make rapid raid attacks. 

Kurdiumivka area (24th Dec) - next 15-men Wagner assault group was spotted by drone and eliminated.

Vodiane area, near Avdiivka - I posted this photo yesterday, but here video appeared and according to it not 5, but 7 enemy BMPs were destroyed by arty fire during attack. One soldier, which fights on this direction told in comments, total enemy losses were 14 BMP and 2 tanks, as if we can see only short video of those vehicles, which were filmed by drone. 

So, if you gathered platoon-sized force in one place, be ready if it spotted with drone, they with big probability will become a target for enemy artillery 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Haiduk