How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Splinty]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

M270 launch

 

This picture is why I don't think integrating maintenance and logistical support for Bradleys will be too big of a problem. That M270 uses the exact same engine, transmission and suspension as the Bradley. Ukraine already has some experience in operating and maintaining at least the chassis and drivetrain.

[Haiduk]

"Madyar" posted that UKR troops completely withdrew from Soledar. As far as on 15:30 he showed a video, that UKR still control solt mine #7 complex on western outskirt of town, but  on 17:30 he posted this with message Russians seized the complex and now our defense line will be on the hills more west. "Madyar" says there will be long position war on this direction. 

 

In that time MoD speaker claimed battle for Soledar is continung

Al-Jazeera reportage of UKR troops withdrawing from Soledar. Rare Shilka in cadre

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, Splinty said:

This picture is why I don't think integrating maintenance and logistical support for Bradleys will be too big of a problem. That M270 uses the exact same engine, transmission and suspension as the Bradley. Ukraine already has some experience in operating and maintaining at least the chassis and drivetrain.

One big challenge with IFV and especially tank maintenance is that they get hit a lot. Also broken in million other fun ways. Probably the most. For artillery systems that is way less common.

 

Lots of repairs and often and a lot of it is done in the field with tanks to speed things up and up the force availability.

 

Not saying it cannot be done. Definitely can be, but this is one reason why a simpler tank often has more challenges in supply chain than the more complex artillery systems.

Edited January 15, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I doubt that volunteer contractors getting paid 4 figures a month are going to be what breaks the political calculus.  In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if there were not intelligence contractors in country already.  Moving to logistic support is not a giant leap.  In fact the if Ukraine is paying, the US government cannot stop western contractors from taking the jobs regardless.  Hell we couldn’t keep westerners from joining and fighting with ISIS.

As I noted, I don't necessarily disagree.  I am definitely way out of my depth here so bear with me.  If western contractors are running logistics, I would think that means a couple things.

1 fairly decent size logistics centers considering the scale of this war.

2 some pieces fairly close to the front to facilitate recovery and replacements/repair that doesn't necessarily require going back to a depot.

Given the above I don't think the scale of contractors is small.  Any idea on the size of personnel requirements to implement an effort like this?

One other note.  While the folks who have gone to fight in Ukraine haven't been facing any legal issues yet, as I understand it there may actually be an issue with the legality.  If you up that scale for contractors participating in the war effort with a wink'wink from the gov't that needs to be more explicitly clear.

[Huba]

26 minutes ago, sburke said:

As I noted, I don't necessarily disagree.  I am definitely way out of my depth here so bear with me.  If western contractors are running logistics, I would think that means a couple things.

1 fairly decent size logistics centers considering the scale of this war.

2 some pieces fairly close to the front to facilitate recovery and replacements/repair that doesn't necessarily require going back to a depot.

Given the above I don't think the scale of contractors is small.  Any idea on the size of personnel requirements to implement an effort like this?

One other note.  While the folks who have gone to fight in Ukraine haven't been facing any legal issues yet, as I understand it there may actually be an issue with the legality.  If you up that scale for contractors participating in the war effort with a wink'wink from the gov't that needs to be more explicitly clear.

I didn't hear almost anything concrete about how UA logistics are organized, there was however a lot of nudging and winking by people with access to non-public information that there's A LOT of driving back and forth through the PL border. As I mentioned when the grain export was a hot topic (anybody remembers that? it was less than half a year ago), there are multiple broad gauge railheads on our side of the fence for moving bulk goods and containers, often with a lot of logistic infrastructure already in place. I bet everything that can be moved this far from the frontlines, is in fact happening in the safety of PL and other NATO neighbors. It puts a strain on the moving stuff part, but makes everything else way easier.
 

And regarding the legal issues of foreign personnel, PL government recently issued a special fund for supporting kids of Poles who died fighting in Ukraine. Paradoxically, fighting there is still de jure illegal and there is no prospect of changing that soon. 
Another rumor/ opinion I heard is that Ukrainians are quite happy to issue UA passports to anybody who helps on the ground and holding it might be of use to him legally. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Huba

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, sburke said:

As I noted, I don't necessarily disagree.  I am definitely way out of my depth here so bear with me.  If western contractors are running logistics, I would think that means a couple things.

1 fairly decent size logistics centers considering the scale of this war.

2 some pieces fairly close to the front to facilitate recovery and replacements/repair that doesn't necessarily require going back to a depot.

Given the above I don't think the scale of contractors is small.  Any idea on the size of personnel requirements to implement an effort like this?

One other note.  While the folks who have gone to fight in Ukraine haven't been facing any legal issues yet, as I understand it there may actually be an issue with the legality.  If you up that scale for contractors participating in the war effort with a wink'wink from the gov't that needs to be more explicitly clear.

Halliburtooooon!  And money shall be their god, all else will fall to shade.  You are correct on scale but these guys can build cities if you have enough money.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Also Sheikh Mansur battalion video. Work of sniper pair with a cover. They spotted a group of Russians - spotter tracks result of fire, sniper shots. Claimed they eliminate two Russians. After shots all quiclky change position. 

Note for CM - it's hard to model such holes in walls, through which sniper can shoot stealthily , so maybe it's has a senese to make walls of damaged buildings "transparent" for snipers?

 

I watched a show about U.S. Military snipers a while back. The U.S. Sniper Training programs now include methods of how to create small holes, just larger than the bullet of the sniper rifle, in conjunction with another small hole for sighting through with the scope. I understand it can be very effective in a populated area to create a much more secure blind for the sniper team. It was quite fascinating.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The damned talkies ruined everything!

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

C'mon, Portugal is not that bad.

I thought he was referring to Gibraltar 

Edited January 16, 2023 by JonS

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Splinty said:

This picture is why I don't think integrating maintenance and logistical support for Bradleys will be too big of a problem. That M270 uses the exact same engine, transmission and suspension as the Bradley. Ukraine already has some experience in operating and maintaining at least the chassis and drivetrain.

Hahhhhh veeerry interesting point 

[Vet 0369]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

I thought he was referring to Gibralter

But, but, but… wasn’t Portugal part of Spain? What about Etruria and Catalonia? Aren’t they all on the Iberian Peninsula?

🫣 Just trolling a bit using a bit of historical context!

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Which again lead us to Germany case...am I wrong or Kretschmer is trying to gain some points inside the party before Rammstein conference?

Urrrgh, please ignore this guy. He is fishing for votes in the brown lakes. I can't think of a German politician I feel more contempt for as this guy.

He's MP of Saxony - the Florida of Germany, but without the sunshine.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Shady_Side said:

Reread what I said... I want Putin to have a quick and fair trial.....and then be escorted to the hangman.....

Yeah, I dont really need to re-read it. You just repeated exactly the same thing. A "trial" then an execution. That's some Stalinist-level ****, bro.

[paxromana]

There is an interesting book on the moral elements of WW2 ... Moral Combat: A History of World War II by Michael Burleigh ... which, amongst many other things, points out that one of the reasons the Allies won was that, while certainly not whiter than the driven snow, were seen to be more moral than the Axis powers ...

Even many Axis citizens realised this as did neutrals ... and, with the latter, this element of trust allowed the Allies a much greater leeway in international relations.

So, yes, give Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, Simonyan and their ilk scrupulously fair trials and then hang them ...

[Beleg85]

55 minutes ago, poesel said:

Urrrgh, please ignore this guy. He is fishing for votes in the brown lakes. I can't think of a German politician I feel more contempt for as this guy.

He's MP of Saxony - the Florida of Germany, but without the sunshine.

Good comparision, cuisine is slightly different than Florida too.

He is still prime minister of large land. Even those normally more measured people from CEE (spoke with Czech collegue, they seem to have similar view) get into bloody frenzy about this' guy stance, especially that Ukrainian accounts smartly correlate his interview with pictures from Dnipro attacks now. Let's say that Ribbentrop-Molotov comparisions are the least brutal.

I really hope this outrage will help to create some additional pressure on Scholz before Rammstain in the end.

1 hour ago, Huba said:

And regarding the legal issues of foreign personnel, PL government recently issued a special fund for supporting kids of Poles who died fighting in Ukraine. Paradoxically, fighting there is still de jure illegal and there is no prospect of changing that soon. 

Yeah, it is shame they cannot do this in 11 months, especially that number of volunteers may even reach low hundreds by now. There are several wounded in my town hospitals, too.

Good news is that local airport is working lately on inceased tempo, with many military planes coming in. There are rumours about a lot of goodies for Ukraine- rather light ones and from previous batches, but worth to note nontheless.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Yeah, I dont really need to re-read it. You just repeated exactly the same thing. A "trial" then an execution. That's some Stalinist-level ****, bro.

Looks like the warcrimes myths are alive and well:

https://legal.un.org/icc/statute/iccq&a.htm

“Consistent with international human rights standards, the International Criminal Court has no competence to impose a death penalty. The Court can impose lengthy terms of imprisonment of up to 30 years or life when so justified by the gravity of the case. The Court may, in addition, order a fine, forfeiture of proceeds, property or assets derived from the committed crime.”

That is the ICC. If we are talking about Russian prosecution, well I am not sure he would ever make it to trial.  Likely “our heroic leader died suddenly of natural causes”, type of thing.  Too many with vested interests in not seeing Putin on the stand and taking all the blame.  
 

And yes, we all remember Saddam, different country and very different circumstances.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, and it is for me to judge them for their choice.  I bet there's more than a few Swiss that would agree with my PoV on the matter.

The entire Swiss business model works because the European Union lets it. The entire country is an exercise regulatory arbitrage. Given that they are COMPLETELY surrounded by the EU it would not be very hard to make that a great deal less profitable. Indeed it would probably make a great deal of the planet work better. They might need a quiet reminder about this fact.

[cyrano01]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

I thought he was referring to Gibraltar 

Me too, although it crossed my mind that it might be France...

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

reminder

I wonder what "reminders" the Swiss can drop on the desk of some brave journalist? Might just involve a few short hairs on lot of big wigs. 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, paxromana said:

There is an interesting book on the moral elements of WW2 ... Moral Combat: A History of World War II by Michael Burleigh ... which, amongst many other things, points out that one of the reasons the Allies won was that, while certainly not whiter than the driven snow, were seen to be more moral than the Axis powers ...

Even many Axis citizens realised this as did neutrals ... and, with the latter, this element of trust allowed the Allies a much greater leeway in international relations.

Yup, and when things really started going downhill for the Germans they were far more likely to surrender to the Western Allies than to the Soviet Union.  And when the war was almost totally over, units in the east tried desperately to get to the west.  Which is to say that the Germans clearly recognized that for all of their crimes against all parties, the Western Allies were likely to act according to basic International Law and Human Rights compared to what they expected from the Soviets.

4 hours ago, paxromana said:

So, yes, give Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, Simonyan and their ilk scrupulously fair trials and then hang them ...

The part that you're leaving out is the presumption of innocence.  I think that is what JonS is objecting to.  So let me fix this:

Give them scrupulously fair trials.  If they are found guilty, hand down sentences consistent with what they were convinced of.

As much as I feel justice would be best served with Putin hanging by his neck in Red Square, the ICC does not have the death penalty.  Therefore, if the trial is done correctly, and Putin is found guilty, best we can hope for is life in prison and all of Putin's assets handed over to Ukraine (the ICC has the legal authority to do the latter).  Same goes for any other Russians found guilty of criminal activities by the ICC.

(edit: dang just saw The_Capt said the same thing)

Interestingly, I am pretty sure the ICC can do the property forfeiture "In absentia".  Which means even if Putin and his buddies manage to stay out of The Hague (a very good possibility), the billions of Dollars in assets the courts can find could be given to Ukraine.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

10 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I wonder what "reminders" the Swiss can drop on the desk of some brave journalist? Might just involve a few short hairs on lot of big wigs. 

Proving my point that their business model needs a little trimming.

[kevinkin]

"Holier-than-thou: how the Alpine State fermented as the World passed them by" NY Times best seller January 2024. 

Anyway:

Stanger things can happen. The Giants just beat the 13-4 Vikes on the road for their first payoff win in 11 years. 

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-728496

 

 

 

[potato4212]

Is anyone in NATO starting to produce new equipment for Ukraine instead of drawing down from existing stocks? How much can they produce and how fast can they do it?

 

[paxromana]

OK, so the ICC cannot pass a death sentence ...

Could we reconstitute a Nuremberg Tribunal (with US, UK, UKR Judges? Or maybe US, UK, POL? Though there would be no functional difference between UKR/POL I suspect) and give it that power? Since the originals were really created almost whole cloth I don't see why not. But IANAL ...

Or, alternatively, well, it;s a pity Spandau Prison was demolished, but I am sure we could find a suitably grim alternative, and let them know they will die there ... or the convicted criminals could be sentenced to hard labour ... demining Ukraine ... hopefully their mines will get them ...

[chrisl]

11 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Or, alternatively, well, it;s a pity Spandau Prison was demolished, but I am sure we could find a suitably grim alternative, and let them know they will die there ... or the convicted criminals could be sentenced to hard labour ... demining Ukraine ... hopefully their mines will get them ...

NYC is planning to close Rikers by 2026.  They could probably be encouraged to close it a little early for some extras money.