How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

-Larger gropus from 4 to 15 soldiers moving fast and dispersed, armed with hand-held termobarics, AGS and HMG's. Usually every goup has drone operator, who correct fire from 82 and 120 mm mortars.

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

- they are too nimble to be zeroed by Artillery properly, so Ukrainains prefer to use mortars instead [Russians clearly learned not to trust in the armour now].

I wonder what will happen if the weather starts to get very windy or even stormy. Surely that would make mortars very inaccurate?

Of course this would affect both sides, but it might hurt Ukraine more, if mortars are one of the key weapons to keep the Russians from using their big manpower advantage.

Then again, it might hurt the Russians more, if they depend on drone accuracy to put mortar bombs into trenches, while the Ukrainians would be firing at large concentrations of troops in the open.

[danfrodo]

40 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

This video is exactly why my blood boils at the allies not sending more AFVs earlier.  UKR using a dang supply truck as a MG platform.  If that were a marder or a bradley or a stryker it'd be 10x better.

[Battlefront.com]

Some follow up thoughts to Russia's limited military options and why it is pretty much obligated to throw stuff at the wall and see if any of it sticks.

As Billindc correctly and succinctly summarized, what is going on now is exclusively designed to keep Putin's regime in power in the face of humiliating circumstances.  It is even probable that the war itself was intended to reinforce regime stability.  Since the war has gone horribly wrong in all ways (political, economic, and military), Russia is forced to reacting to the situation it is in.

If Russia loses militarily on the battlefield the regime will fall shortly thereafter.  This is the corner Putin's strategy backed Russia into.  Therefore, it must "win" the war at all costs or the regime is done.

In theory Russia has non-military options (hybrid warfare) that it can employ to improve the military situation.  We've seen Russia try a large number of them such as energy blackmail, food blackmail, large scale terrorism, nuclear saber rattling, and more.  It has also tried to rally meaningful support for the war amongst the Near Abroad, China, India, states within NATO (Turkey and Hungary in particular).  None of this has worked and, I'd argue, most of it has been a miserable failure.

Could Russia be doing more according to its hybrid warfare doctrine?  Theoretically yes.  However, it seems the options open to it are either of no real significance or risk escalating the West's involvement in the war.  Since Russia is losing the war pretty badly already, anything that risks an increase of support from the West (up to and including direct involvement) had better be so huge that it makes the tradeoff worth it.  I see absolutely NOTHING that Russia can do that has even a hint of such an outcome.

The big one to consider is cyber warfare.  For sure Russia has been active in this arena and, it is suspected, holding back on what it can do.  The West has made it clear that any significant cyber attack will be viewed as an act of war and responded to appropriately.  Russia might turn of an electrical grid in the US for a few hours, but the ATACMS, Abrams, and F-16s that would be given to Ukraine would not be worth it.  Oh, and it is likely the US would shut off Russia's banking system for a couple of days, or something equally dramatic.  Imagine Russians unable to withdraw their money or, even worse, having their account data wiped out!  I bet you they would not be amused.

The result is that all the capabilities that Russia has built up over the years, including nukes, are more deterrence than of practical use.  All Russia can do is stall for time and hope something favorable drops out of the sky.  Not likely, but when that's all you have to hope for... you hope for it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, JonS said:

It has always been thus.

Of course

26 minutes ago, JonS said:

Also, mainly applies to peer on peer. Not so applicable to asymmetric.

Yeah, as Afghanistan clearly demonstrated.  Even PGMs had no strategic impact on the fighting.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russian soldier had old Soviet police scale body armor ZhZL-74, which protects only against cold steel. 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

22 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Isn't it more that Soviet - and by extension Russian - air doctrine wasn't interested in trying to achieve and superiority in the sense that NATO thinks. The Russians focus on achieving temporary, local air superiority sufficient to be able to launch strikes in direct support of ground troops.  NATO tries to achieve permanent, theatre wide and superiority to use and power to hit rear areas to destroy logistics, HQs, communications and interdict movement.

Hence Russian and doctrine isn't too try and contest this with air power. Instead they focus on an array of ground based anti-air systems for defence, and punching local holes in enemy air cover for the duration of a single mission.

Since replacing an entire and defence network and air force is a very major undertaking, Ukraine also still has the legacy Soviet system, much the same as the Russians.

So neither side has an air force designed to maintain superiority over and behind enemy lines. And both sides (more so the Russians, at the start of the war at least) have plentiful  artillery, and that artillery is doctrinally supposed to fulfill the role that is the province of Close Air Support in NATO doctrine.

So I'd have thought it was to be expected that artillery would be playing much of the NATO CAS for in this conflict, because both sides have Soviet-legacy ground and and forces designed to fight that way. And while Ukraine is becoming more NATO-like in many ways, this is something that would require the complete retooling of most of the armed forces before it can be changed significantly.

I would frame it a little differently, but the principle is the same.  The Soviets, and thus their descendants, never really developed SEAD/DEAD capability or doctrine.  But they did develop AD that’s being used to greater or lesser effect by both Ukraine and Russia.  It makes air operations much riskier because there are sufficient AD systems on the ground to prevent most CAS.

US doctrine in particular is driven by having to cross an ocean to get into a fight.  You can haul a bunch of heavy tubes and trucks to haul them and millions of shells.  Or you can focus on precision and stick that stuff on an airplane that flies itself into the theater and back out.  Air support, with some exceptions, is basically self propelled rocket artillery.  And the exceptions (A-10) are SP anti-tank guns.  If your doctrine depends on that, then you’ll see a big need for SEAD.  And once you have it, you effectively also have much longer range artillery for disrupting things far behind the LOC.

What Ukraine is doing with drones so far is mostly different- they’re used to achieve borg spotting so that the drone driver can tell the guy with the howitzer or the grenade precisely where to put the bang.  Using them with or as live munitions is still in pretty early stages, despite their success.  With some next gen of UA drone software they’ll have AR goggles on the guy with the grenade so he can see where the throw lands outside his natural LOS.

 

[Battlefront.com]

It's official... Ukrainian soldiers are on their way to Ft. Sill, Oklahoma USA for Patriot training.  Could be as soon as next week, according to Washington Post.  Between 90-100 soldiers are expected and the Army is currently finalizing a training regiment that is shorter than the standard 12 month training for US operators.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/10/ukraine-patriot-missile-fort-sill-oklahoma/

Steve

[Haiduk]

MTLB vs super-mud. MTLB won.  

 

[Huba]

 

[Battlefront.com]

Russia announced its end of year financial numbers.  2.3% deficit is the bottom line result:

https://news.yahoo.com/1-russia-says-budget-deficit-122058996.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Daily Beast article on how Wagner treats its prisoner-fighters, including on-the-spot executions and generally treating them as fodder.  There's even a bit at the end about Wagner recruiters threatening and intimidating civilians to sign up:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagner-groups-secret-squadron-of-executioners-accused-of-killing-their-own-men-in-ukraine?source=articles&via=rss

Steve

[kevinkin]

15 minutes ago, chrisl said:

The Soviets, and thus their descendants, never really developed SEAD/DEAD capability or doctrine.  But they did develop AD that’s being used to greater or lesser effect by both Ukraine and Russia.  It makes air operations much riskier because there are sufficient AD systems on the ground to prevent most CAS.

Yep, mentioned that a while ago now. By extension, Ukraine does not have a SEAD/DEAD tradition as well. That is why CAS is dangerous for them. If armed drones pieced together in a flash are a pain for the RA, image craving out a protected corridor for attack choppers and what that would do to RA conscript moral. A battalion of Apaches would make the the P66 line impregnable from a stand off distance give the flat terrain. Just watch the MANPADs Perchance to dream. 

21 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Or you can focus on precision and stick that stuff on an airplane that flies itself into the theater and back out.  Air support, with some exceptions, is basically self propelled rocket artillery.  And the exceptions (A-10) are SP anti-tank guns.  If your doctrine depends on that, then you’ll see a big need for SEAD.  And once you have it, you effectively also have much longer range artillery for disrupting things far behind the LOC.

Agree. Exactly. This is why artillery is having a huge effect on combat in this continental war having insufficient CAS. It's been mentioned: HIMARS is taking the place of deep strike aerial operations. No/less need for SEAD. 

 

[JonS]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Of course

Of course

But I do have love for our beaver-tailed friends. Look, see:

A single-double bailey bridge! In regular routine use on SH6 at Franz Josef. It creaks and groans and squeals pleasingly as you drive across.

Edit:

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by JonS

[Beleg85]

52 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia announced its end of year financial numbers.  2.3% deficit is the bottom line result:

https://news.yahoo.com/1-russia-says-budget-deficit-122058996.html

Steve

Of cours real situation is much worse. Probably several people fall from their windows so we could look at these data.

 

Btw. I think this information was not reported today here, but today gen. Lapin, disgraced by his soldiers underperfoming,  became Russian Chief of Staff. It's good to know Russians are unable to reform their High Command.

Oh, it seems Prigozhin himself visited his new estate. Reportedly they plan to use them as ammo stores immune to long-range artillery of their adversaries:

[Update: most probably a fake operation but will not delete a link as we are not 100% sure]

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_MonkeyKing]

DPICM already send for UKR in December by NATO allies:

 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  Thanks!  It seems Russia has adapted Human Wave tactics from the old days to smaller scale tactical warfare.  8 men at a time instead of 100, but otherwise similar to what we've seen in previous wars.  Maybe we should call these Human Ripples?

Steve

I add very important thing, which wasn't told in this article. But first of all about some other tactical things.

Main tactical unit of Wagner is so-called "assault detachment" (rus. "shturmovoy otryad") - it approx equal to reinforced company in 120-150 men (though, other sources say this is battalion-level unit). Lower level is assault group. Groups are froming due to current task and can be from squad to platoon size.

In many cases assault groups attack in some different way, than was described above. For example if suprize attack is need or arty support is not available, than assault groups try sneak under cover of terrain or in the night, fog, rain etc as close to UKR position as possiable and wait command. Then they divide on subgroups of suppressive fire (MG, RPG, RPO, RShG) and attackers. Latter rash to the UKR positions on the distacnce of grenade throwing and just rained it with grenades, which they carry in big number. If they can shock opponents with grenades they burst into trenches and clean it. 

But main reason of Wagners effectiveness is not their human waves, which having huge losses eventually degerade opponents defense, but in their battlefield control system and experienced commaders, which unlike in Russian army feel free in achievment of goals. For control over the battle Wagners detachment commander use drones and special software on the any gadget. If Ukrainian soldiers use own small tactical drones like Mavic only for recon and arty/mortar targeting, but very rare for control over the battle (this do mostly special drone teams like TERRA and other), than Wagners widely use commercial drones for battlefield command. 

Here is screenshot from gadget of killed Wagner detachment or assault group commander. This is battlefield control software.

There was an opinion that these color dots on the screen are locations of each soldier in his detachment and we can see here two assault groups (green and purple), but other think (and this is more logical) - we can see here battlefield waypoint grid. Software allows to make plan of battle and merging it with picture from drones to command, for example, to one assault group - go by waypoints 1,2,3,4 - objective XXX. Assault group leader(s) has(-ve) this battle plan and via radio comms or maybe via gadgets can receive some corrections. Also important note - Wagners put tasks only based on combat capabilities and quality of units. Tasks for "zeks" small groups are primitive but not more complicated, than their training level. If they will be kileld in battle, other meat substitute them, until this primitive task is completed. There is no way back. Withdrawal is allowed only for wounded and if group obviously lost own attack capabilities. Else - a death penalty.

So, detachment commander actually plays some sort of CM game, contrloling situation with drone or several drones. This is really mixing of Soviet "human wave" and HiTech.  So, one way to disrupt Wagner plans is get down their eyes in the sky. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Chibot Mk IX]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I add very important thing, which wasn't told in this article. But first of all about some other tactical things.

Main tactical unit of Wagner is so-called "assault detachment" (rus. "sturmovoy otryad") - it approx equal to reinforced company in 120-150 men (though, other sources say this is battalion-level unit). Lower level is assault group. Groups are froming due to current task and can be from squad to platoon size.

In many cases assault groups attack in some different way, than was described above. For example if suprize attack is need or arty support is not available, than assault groups try sneak under cover of terrain or in the night, fog, rain etc as close to UKR position as possiable and wait command. Then they divide on subgroups of suppressive fire (MG, RPG, RPO, RShG) and attackers. Latter rash to the UKR positions on the distacnce of grenade throwing and just rained it with grenades, which they carry in big number. If they can shock opponents with grenades they burst into trenches and clean it. 

But main reason of Wagners effectiveness is not their human waves, which having huge losses eventually degerade opponents defense, but in their battlefield control system and experienced commaders, which unlike in Russian army feel free in achievment of goals. For control over the battle Wagners detachment commander use drones and special software on the any gadget. If Ukrainian soldiers use own small tactical drones like Mavic only for recon and arty/mortar targeting, but very rare for control over the battle (this do mostly special drone teams like TERRA and other), than Wagners widely use commercial drones for battlefield command. 

Thanks for the info.

So they went back to the glory days of WW II Soviet Sapper tactics (and Sturmtrupp tactics) ?

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Thanks for the info.

So they went back to the glory days of WW II Soviet Sapper tactics (and Sturmtrupp tactics) ?

Or WWI trench cleaners tactic.

Before a war in Russian army engineer-assault units should have been restored, but I don't know how they advanced in this.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, JonS said:

Of course

But I do have love for our beaver-tailed friends. Look, see:

A single-double bailey bridge! In regular routine use on SH6 at Franz Josef. It creaks and groans and squeals pleasingly as you drive across.

Edit:

 

Jon are you coming onto me?  I mean it is so sudden...I am flattered, but I have been hurt before.

[Battlefront.com]

44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I add very important thing, which wasn't told in this article. But first of all about some other tactical things.

Main tactical unit of Wagner is so-called "assault detachment" (rus. "shturmovoy otryad") - it approx equal to reinforced company in 120-150 men (though, other sources say this is battalion-level unit). Lower level is assault group. Groups are froming due to current task and can be from squad to platoon size.

In many cases assault groups attack in some different way, than was described above. For example if suprize attack is need or arty support is not available, than assault groups try sneak under cover of terrain or in the night, fog, rain etc as close to UKR position as possiable and wait command. Then they divide on subgroups of suppressive fire (MG, RPG, RPO, RShG) and attackers. Latter rash to the UKR positions on the distacnce of grenade throwing and just rained it with grenades, which they carry in big number. If they can shock opponents with grenades they burst into trenches and clean it. 

But main reason of Wagners effectiveness is not their human waves, which having huge losses eventually degerade opponents defense, but in their battlefield control system and experienced commaders, which unlike in Russian army feel free in achievment of goals. For control over the battle Wagners detachment commander use drones and special software on the any gadget. If Ukrainian soldiers use own small tactical drones like Mavic only for recon and arty/mortar targeting, but very rare for control over the battle (this do mostly special drone teams like TERRA and other), than Wagners widely use commercial drones for battlefield command. 

Here is screenshot from gadget of killed Wagner detachment or assault group commander. This is battlefield control software.

There was an opinion that these color dots on the screen are locations of each soldier in his detachment and we can see here two assault groups (green and purple), but other think (and this is more logical) - we can see here battlefield waypoint grid. Software allows to make plan of battle and merging it with picture from drones to command, for example, to one assault group - go by waypoints 1,2,3,4 - objective XXX. Assault group leader(s) has(-ve) this battle plan and via radio comms or maybe via gadgets can receive some corrections. Also important note - Wagners put tasks only based on combat capabilities and quality of units. Tasks for "zeks" small groups are primitive but not more complicated, than their training level. If they will be kileld in battle, other meat substitute them, until this primitive task is completed. There is no way back. Withdrawal is allowed only for wounded and if group obviously lost own attack capabilities. Else - a death penalty.

So, detachment commander actually plays some sort of CM game, contrloling situation with drone or several drones. This is really mixing of Soviet "human wave" and HiTech.  So, one way to disrupt Wagner plans is get down their eyes in the sky. 

Now that is interesting!  As you say, it is a HiTech form of Human Wave attacks with a little bit of infiltration tactics thrown in when possible (opportunities and unit capabilities).

What hasn't been clearly stated here is the obvious criminal nature of this doctrine.  Wagner's leaders are knowingly and purposefully developing tactics that rely on throwing people's lives away for tiny geographical gains.

Lovely.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Jon are you coming onto me?  I mean it is so sudden...I am flattered, but I have been hurt before.

By one of the bridges you built?

Sorry, that was just too easy to ignore

Steve

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian soldier had old Soviet police scale body armor ZhZL-74, which protects only against cold steel. 

 

At least we found that mythical decent russian invader our tolerant friends keep talking about - that definitely was a whole sir knight right there. Let's hope the good knight's sword is not far from his other body parts.

Edited January 10, 2023 by kraze

[Huba]

RU ISR quality aside, keeping a huge warehouse full of fireworks in city endangered with rocket attacks seems a bit odd.

 

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Daily Beast article on how Wagner treats its prisoner-fighters, including on-the-spot executions and generally treating them as fodder.  There's even a bit at the end about Wagner recruiters threatening and intimidating civilians to sign up:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagner-groups-secret-squadron-of-executioners-accused-of-killing-their-own-men-in-ukraine?source=articles&via=rss

Steve

A lot of those prisoner-fighters are probably longing wholeheartedly to be back in their prison-cells.

Which is, considering the state of Russian prisons, something a lot of people never would have thought possible.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh man, that couldn't have been timed any better for our conversation here

Steve

Pshaw!