FancyCat Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 As noted previously by Ukrainian posters, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, billbindc said: A quibble on the slow progress idea. This war began less than 11 months ago. Ukraine has retaken something like half of the territory it lost in the first phases of the war, has wrecked whatever options Moscow still had to widen or change the trajectory and is one big victory in the south away from potentially putting the war into it's end phase. That's *fast*. Oh, strategically I completely agree. Especially when we consider other factors, such as this being Russia's war of choice against an opponent that was (initially) inferior in every bean counting category. What I'm talking about is the tactical and operational fighting. Soledar, for example, is now under threat from massed conscripts backed by prisoners supported by the remains of the Russian regular armed forces. There SHOULD be opportunities there for Ukraine to take advantage of. But for all of Russia's flaws, it is still moving forward. Similarly, for all the advantages Ukraine had in Kherson, it was slow and extremely costly with Russia successfully withdrawing most of its forces AND equipment. I overestimated Ukraine's ability to leverage all those advantages, which makes me think there's some piece of the Ukrainian offensive capability that is lagging behind its other capabilities. The tank video linked to above, along with others, seems to give a hint as to why Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive activities against a determined defender are not producing the sort of results we would like to see. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Eh, I recall people being fine with Russia expending offensive potential because that would weaken them in the face of further Ukrainian offensives. Unless Russia actually takes a city wholly, Ukraine just like in Bakumut can counter attack and push them back. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, Taranis said: Vladimir Putin orders a ceasefire in Ukraine on January 6-7 Source : Le Monde A unilateral ceasefire for Christmas? The grinch in me says they are only doing this so they can point out how the Ukrainians are unholy satanists when there is an inevitable 'violation'. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taranis Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 32 minutes ago, Huba said: No way this precedent should be allowed to happen - the only agreeably ceasefire at this point is the one happening after RU withdrawal. I think it will be an opportunity for them to use their narrative : "We, the Russians, are the good guys", "We respect God's peace", "the wicked Ukrainian Nazis don't respect God nor truces so they are the bad guys" etc... It's mostly for their internal narrative and in the worst cases that gives them 2 days to reorganize their units. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Taranis said: I think it will be an opportunity for them to use their narrative : "We, the Russians, are the good guys", "We respect God's peace", "the wicked Ukrainian Nazis don't respect God nor truces so they are the bad guys" etc... It's mostly for their internal narrative and in the worst cases that gives them 2 days to reorganize their units. For sure that is what Russia is going for. I also think it could be to bolster Russian morale at the front. Imagine how the mobiks would feel if things were "business as usual" for the next few days. Since Ukraine is unlikely to adhere to it, the fault of every shell and bullet coming at Russian positions will be Ukraine's fault and not the fault of the Glorious Leader. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said: This guy is pro-RU Do not bother with his stuff. Completely full of ****. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 It looks like an window of opportunity for more substantial operations might open itself in the Svatovo theater in upcoming weeks: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 situation in Soledar 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 22 minutes ago, Grossman said: Rogue Russia is to be expected. The most interesting observation is the Putin has had to employ measured escalation at every reverse. The Russians use of subterfuge and asymmetric warfare has been homed over decades so clearly that will be their natural recourse. The crucial question: at what point will the ordinary Russian, the man in the street, wise up to what's happening. Not likely in my view. There is decades of indoctrination over the Patriotic War, Mother Russia et al. Those that could, left, and Putin did not seal his borders, they were permitted to leave. I think its going to take a major reversal on the battlefield, "loss" of Crimea, but even then not certain. UKR may just have to push the Russian's back on the battlefield to their borders. There are echos of a past conflict. The intensity of the fighting in Bakhmut (Stalingrad)for little purpose, use by the Russians of indiscriminate missiles (V2), the overriding power of the technology of the west ( 1943 and on). Hitler ran out of men by 1944 and lost the technology and logistics war. It's also a big question that Russian asymmetric warfare will be as effective as in the past. Before the war, Russian propaganda and grey ops were effective in large part because it remained below the attention of public opprobrium and political will in the West. The invasion of Ukraine has changed that on every level. Public opinion is now decisively against Russia, the propaganda coming out of Moscow is a subject of derision and the motivations of Ukrainians to support any sort of Russian operation have collapsed. A frozen conflict was one thing in 2014...totally different in 2024. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, billbindc said: It's also a big question that Russian asymmetric warfare will be as effective as in the past. Before the war, Russian propaganda and grey ops were effective in large part because it remained below the attention of public opprobrium and political will in the West. The invasion of Ukraine has changed that on every level. Public opinion is now decisively against Russia, the propaganda coming out of Moscow is a subject of derision and the motivations of Ukrainians to support any sort of Russian operation have collapsed. A frozen conflict was one thing in 2014...totally different in 2024. Now that is a solid point. Russia is going to be challenged to stay below a threshold of response because this war has lowered that threshold itself. Anytime anything happens in Ukraine it is going to be Russia behind it. Elsewhere in the world we are going to be a lot less likely to let things slide as Russian support will become potentially toxic and other activities may come under a more focused response. I say “maybe” (as opposed to detailed weighted percentages) because we in the West are like teenagers in that “it really is all about us” and what that “is” is moves around pretty fast. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Combatintman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said: Dubious source, so unconfirmed but UKR side twittersphere admits situation in Soledar is difficult: 'attacks from 3 sides'. Yep - absolutely dubious; however, occasionally useful when cross-referenced - I used to read their stuff when I covered Yemen about a year ago. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 More news regarding the Western IFVs: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Huba said: More news regarding the Western IFVs: This is a big step and very much confirmed in DC. The effects on the battlefield in terms of firepower and mobility for Ukraine are going to be immense over time. There are going to be some grim conversations in the Kremlin tonight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1. Said to be Soledar; either a striking photo filter or a video game render. 2. WSJ snips on the drone war. 3. I don't recall any photos of Zhukov or Rokossovsky goofing like this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMoria Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Sheesh... Twiddle Dee and Twiddle Dum with a Barrett. You two clowns do you.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Zeleban said: situation in Soledar YPR 765s on the move in Bakhmutskye (by Soledar). Counterattack? Yeah, that ceasefire thing na ga happen.... Edited January 5, 2023 by LongLeftFlank 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, LongLeftFlank said: 1. Said to be Soledar; either a striking photo filter or a video game render. 2. WSJ snips on the drone war. 3. I don't recall any photos of Zhukov or Rokossovsky goofing like this. This is just how backwards the Russian way of war is, they literally are trying to live a Steven Segal movie as doctrine. Oryx shows: 533 captured Russian tanks, 255 AFVs, 547 IFVs and enough HVT hardware to make any professional weep. But hey they got a single Barret .50 cal. Meanwhile the UA developed a new integrated ISR system that we will likely be buying after this war. At this point the RA and UA are not even the same species of military. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, billbindc said: This is a big step and very much confirmed in DC. The effects on the battlefield in terms of firepower and mobility for Ukraine are going to be immense over time. There are going to be some grim conversations in the Kremlin tonight. It definitely is. There's a full article now on Bloomberg, which states that Biden will announce Bradleys on Friday, as part of another presidential drawdown. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-05/us-and-germany-will-send-ukraine-armored-vehicles-in-a-major-arms-upgrade 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, billbindc said: It's also a big question that Russian asymmetric warfare will be as effective as in the past. Before the war, Russian propaganda and grey ops were effective in large part because it remained below the attention of public opprobrium and political will in the West. I think the public has been wary of Russia since the Cold War. Just not knowing or caring about the details of how they go about intelligence operations. The war hammered home the brutality of the Putin regime and the public will still rather watch football than read a book on anything related to Russia. The DNC was hacked into by Russian supporters a few years back. You would think they would have been a more sophisticated. Russian operations like that will be less effective if the war degrades their resources to do so - not by some epiphany within the easily distracted American public and their elected leaders. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 hours ago, Zeleban said: The tank crushes the infantry in the trenches, while its actions are corrected from the drone. I have already seen this before, when a Ukrainian tank crushed Russian infantrymen lying in cover, and the commander with a quadcopter at that time controlled it, suggesting exactly where the soldiers were. Yup, video from several months ago. Tank even made moves forward and backwards several times just in case. There was a heated debate on some channels here if UA should do such things or it was a warcrime, since RU infantrymen seemed largely defenceless. But they were not surrendering on another side, so I guess "this is war" attitude prevailed. 2 hours ago, The_Capt said: I also question the “huge losses” part. Proportionately how huge were they really? Do we have valid data? What were the attacker/defender loss ratios and how do they compare to historical examples? I argue at Kherson in retaking a major urban centre - the overall operational objective - the losses were incredibly light compared to other urban battles. Kherson costed, but it was no Verdun or Stalingrad. All true, thus why I think we should pay attention to our sources and wait for serious data-based works. From very scattered info from journalists making interviews, amount of medical stuff and first-hand accounts (including this thing with Ukrainian services grabbing dirty methods to activelly prevent people counting loosess) it seems casualties were very significant to periodically murderous in some line companies- we would need to check tweets and articles that are scattered around this thread from that time. They also lost quite a lot of equipment there- I don't think if Oryx or LostArmour made specific Kherson headcount, would need to check it later. I have no doubt it was costly, but crucially absolutelly worth the goal. Worth to remember that Russians also did not want to participate in their Verdun and simply left. Giving them credit- it was very well planned and conducted operation, considering the scale and dangers. I still wait for those hundreds of wrecks left on Right Bank we initially imagined. Overall you may be right though, our minds still work too much in old paradigms of hightech manouvre warfare and not attritional mud-and-blood wrestling. Just if that is the case, worth to remember is that UA also have some breaking point, especially that this is different society than Russian one. It's one thing to loose zeks or village boyz by thousands, other to suffer generational hole among civic elites. I don't know if you happen to watch for UA orbituaries from time to time (a lot of them fly on TG), but I assure you daily slaughter of many of Ukrainian brightest in some God-forgotten Bakhmut or unnamed field somewhere in Svatove is stunning. And many are still ranked as MIA, not officially recognized for weeks and months. This is generally sad characteristic of this war- Ukraine throws many of its post-Maidan elites into meatgrinder (non-elites too, btw.), while middle-class Russians are generally untouched by war. This will have an profound long-term effect on society. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said: YPR 765s on the move in Bakhmutskye (by Soledar). Counterattack? Yeah, that ceasefire thing na ga happen.... This kinda makes my blood boil. YPR 765 better than advancing in hyundai pickups, but we could've sent bradleys and marders 6 months ago. I doubt there's any soldier that wouldn't want marder or bradley over these YPRs. Plus having a couple AMX10RCs for fire support would make huge upgrade in firepower for units like this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I saw something that said Ukraine might be switching to using a held back force to counterattack that they keep in reserve to prevent piling front line units into Russian artillery range. Could be cope, and we won't know how dire or managed the situation is until much later in time but interesting premise. Supported by that counterattack in Bakutut that pushed the Russians back no? Weather is weather but dang that is a bit karmic. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 No western government is falling for Russian claptrap. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 more bradley / AMXRC10 stuff, plus a tidbit about fight for island in the Dnipro at Kherson. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/5/2145481/-Ukraine-update-It-s-a-tank-No-it-s-not-Who-cares-Bradleys-and-AMX-10s-are-going-to-Ukraine And some more confirmation bias for those of us who think RU is losing and UKR is winning: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/4/2145287/-Ukraine-update-Russia-is-losing-it-knows-it-s-losing-and-it-plans-to-keep-losing-Forever 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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