How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

 

[Grossman]

Events in Moscow and St Petersburg

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/1008sed/st_petersburg_omon_police_fill_the_meat_wagons/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

The link below describes why the U.S disagrees with the exclusion of mercenaries from IHL.

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule108?country=us

Notably, IHL defines mercenary such that none of Wagner's personnel who are citizens or residents of Russia meet the definition of a mercenary. note the definition of mercenary here:

https://casebook.icrc.org/glossary/mercenaries

See here that the ICRC states that mercenaries are entitled to IHL protection same as belligerent combatants.

https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2022/10/06/third-country-nationals-international-armed-conflict

What was the violation of IHL? Hitting a Wagner hospital with HIMARS? Regardless of mercenaries or not, that is a violation. Tho, this protection stops once the hospital is used for:
"unless they are used to commit, outside their humanitarian duties, acts harmful to the enemy”. Examples of such acts include “the use of a hospital as a shelter for able-bodied combatants or fugitives, as an arms or ammunition store, as a military observation post, or as a centre for liaison with fighting troops”. These transgressions can lead to the withdrawal of protection."

From: http://international-review.icrc.org/articles/breaking-the-silence-advocacy-and-accountability-for-attacks-on-hospitals-in-armed-conflict-915

 

Could not have said it better.  Lot of Hollywood myths about Law of Armed Conflict and it serves no one any good to play fast and loose with them.  That said, bad shoots happen all the time - e.g.  the infamous Iraq/Afghan wedding Pred strikes.  The right answer is “we will fully investigate this incident and share the results with our partners in due course”…not sure why some are having so much trouble with that one.  Russia is pissing missiles all over the place like a blind tomcat, so stay on the high road and go back to killing legit targets, not like there is a shortage on that market.

[LongLeftFlank]

I guess they leave it to the operators to repaint/whitewash the vehicles? 

2. Keep an eye on the paras.

3. Rasputitsa. Conditions like this explain why MTLB exists.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

 

My favourite comment:  'It's only a Light Tank if it comes from the Light Tank region of France. Otherwise it's a Sparkling Armored Vehicle'

I am old enough to remember the naysayers slagging off the Bradley as like the old definition of a camel: a horse designed by committee.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

On 1/1/2023 at 9:48 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

Indeed. 

 

The Kraken video (watch it in case you haven't, although it is quite graphic) is sparking some good commentary.

7. When dismounts are moving "slow is smooth, smooth is fast;"

8. Good to see the Ukrainians using AFVs in support;

9. The necessity of training for close quarter combat;

10. The collateral damage outside & inside a building which makes it challenging to approach & clear

11. Even small urban areas have subterranean parts;

12. The challenges of communicating in combat; 

13. Be careful with the use of tracer rounds; the enemy will see from where you are firing

14. Be prepared for enemy counter-artillery fire because now they know you're in the town. Seek shelter soonest; and

15. The need for all fighters to train for casualty triage & challenging urban casualty evacuation

Edited January 2, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Grossman said:

Events in Moscow and St Petersburg

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/1008sed/st_petersburg_omon_police_fill_the_meat_wagons/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

 

 

The size of the police group needed to nab a few individuals tells me a lot about how tenuous the situation is.  If they had a half dozen try to do a snatch and grab they might find themselves outnumbered by angry people.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Could not have said it better.  Lot of Hollywood myths about Law of Armed Conflict and it serves no one any good to play fast and loose with them.  That said, bad shoots happen all the time - e.g.  the infamous Iraq/Afghan wedding Pred strikes.  The right answer is “we will fully investigate this incident and share the results with our partners in due course”…not sure why some are having so much trouble with that one.  Russia is pissing missiles all over the place like a blind tomcat, so stay on the high road and go back to killing legit targets, not like there is a shortage on that market.

Yup.  The other way to go is to present the same story the Russians did before they gave up trying to explain themselves.  And that is "the building was being used as a headquarters and billet for enemy armed forces, therefore it was a legitimate target".

As for the assessment of the body count, that building certainly could have held several hundred men very easily.  Especially given what we've seen about living conditions in their barracks.  Looking at the footage the building was completely wiped off the face of the Earth, so it is completely believable that Russian losses were very high.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The Kraken video (watch it in case you haven't, although it is quite graphic) is sparking some good commentary.

It should.  The video shows a lot of things to take note of.

Looks like the Russians had at least a full company worth of troops in this small village.  I'm guessing it is what they would call a Battalion.  They were backed up by a handful of armored vehicles, which were knocked out or withdrew, leaving the Russians with nothing but light infantry with what appears to have been at least one AGL (fired into Kraken's initial drop off area, causing a couple of casualties). 

There was some artillery supporting them, but it didn't seem to be very effective.  One drone shot showed a bunch of rounds hitting an empty field.  Could have been rocket type.  It would seem they didn't pump a lot of rounds into to the village.  Earlier in the war I would have expected a lot more activity.

The jumpy editing makes it difficult to tell exactly what the results were, but I'd say from what we saw the equivalent of at least one Russian platoon, perhaps two, were taken prisoner and a squad eliminated.  Better part of two platoons ran away en mas.  At least one tank, one BTR, and one BMP-3 were knocked out. 

On the Kraken side, it looked to be maybe two platoons, maybe three, backed by at least one tank, one BTR-4, and several light armored 4x4s (plus the battlefield taxis).  Kraken casualties we saw consisted of about a half dozen guys with extremity wounds.

To summarize, it appears that Kraken attacked with inferior numbers and succeeded in routing the defenders.  In part because they prepped the area with fire beforehand (mortars and Grads) and drone recon.  One of the platoon sized units they captured was seen on video going into a basement and Kraken was able to neutralize them because hiding in a basement isn't smart if the enemy knows you're there.

Steve

[FancyCat]

A 3rd tweet in the thread states two more departments, sports complex and several dormitories were severely damaged.

Assuming this info is correct, on the face of it, it was actually directly targeted, depending on where and how the location of these facilities is arranged and what is around it, but it is a timely and unfortunate reminder that Russia's missile campaign is targeted on civilian infrastructure and people.

 

[kevinkin]

Appears to be two locations in question: technical college #19 (legit) and a hospital (not so legit). Time to get out ahead of the news cycle and be as transparent as this war can permit. Let's see how this plays out.  

[Raptor341]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

To summarize, it appears that Kraken attacked with inferior numbers and succeeded in routing the defenders.  In part because they prepped the area with fire beforehand (mortars and Grads) and drone recon.  One of the platoon sized units they captured was seen on video going into a basement and Kraken was able to neutralize them because hiding in a basement isn't smart if the enemy knows you're there.

Steve

“You don’t got to be Stonewall Jackson to know you don’t want to fight in a basement” 

[Taranis]

A new Assault Brigade was formed in the Army

 

Quote

 

Ukrainian Command continues to cooperate with volunteer formations and nationalist organizations to create elite units.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces has formed a new brigade in cooperation with the representatives of Azov. The 3rd Assault Brigade Azov, created on the basis of the SSO Azov, is a new fully fledged brigade of Ukrainian Ground Forces. The brigade consists of three assault battalions, a tank battalion (T-90s, T-72s), an artillery group and the rear elements.

The well-known 3rd Company Azov of 98th Territorial Defense Battalion, has been reformed under the command of 3rd Assault Brigade Azov. The rest of 98th Territorial Defense Battalion seems to remain in the structure Territorial Defense Forces.

The Regiment SSO Azov likely became part of the brigade, as the official Azov social media accounts continue to refer to the 3rd Assault Brigade as Azov SSO, but recently changed the watermark on photos and videos. The SSO Azov text has been replaced by a three stripe assault rune.

The 3rd Assault Brigade Azov is currently deployed to the area of Bakhmut, and it recently led an assault towards Kurdyumivka, as seen on a video by Azov’s Terra reconnaissance unit released on December 29

 

Source : 

https://militaryland.net/news/a-new-assault-brigade-was-formed-in-the-army/

According to this source : also use M113 and YPR-765

Edited January 2, 2023 by Taranis

[Seedorf81]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It should.  The video shows a lot of things to take note of.

Looks like the Russians had at least a full company worth of troops in this small village.  I'm guessing it is what they would call a Battalion.  They were backed up by a handful of armored vehicles, which were knocked out or withdrew, leaving the Russians with nothing but light infantry with what appears to have been at least one AGL (fired into Kraken's initial drop off area, causing a couple of casualties). 

There was some artillery supporting them, but it didn't seem to be very effective.  One drone shot showed a bunch of rounds hitting an empty field.  Could have been rocket type.  It would seem they didn't pump a lot of rounds into to the village.  Earlier in the war I would have expected a lot more activity.

The jumpy editing makes it difficult to tell exactly what the results were, but I'd say from what we saw the equivalent of at least one Russian platoon, perhaps two, were taken prisoner and a squad eliminated.  Better part of two platoons ran away en mas.  At least one tank, one BTR, and one BMP-3 were knocked out. 

On the Kraken side, it looked to be maybe two platoons, maybe three, backed by at least one tank, one BTR-4, and several light armored 4x4s (plus the battlefield taxis).  Kraken casualties we saw consisted of about a half dozen guys with extremity wounds.

To summarize, it appears that Kraken attacked with inferior numbers and succeeded in routing the defenders.  In part because they prepped the area with fire beforehand (mortars and Grads) and drone recon.  One of the platoon sized units they captured was seen on video going into a basement and Kraken was able to neutralize them because hiding in a basement isn't smart if the enemy knows you're there.

Steve

What strikes me most, is how difficult and expensive it is to win back such a small piece of ground.

Ofcourse, ammo and fuel are costly, but this clip shows eerily good how enormous the strain of combat is on physical, psychological and emotional levels. It's just a few hours of fighting at the most, but I can barely imagine how exhausted one must be after such an engagement.

And then having to do that day after day, months on end.

No wonder there's a limited time that soldiers can be functional at the frontline.

War IS hell.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Seedorf81

[beardiebloke]

Don't think I've seen this posted here yet.

One big strike against some kind of conscript barracks in Makiivka ("multiple reports") and a smaller one on something in Pervomaisk east of Bakhmut (that one seems maybe sketchy reporting).

I guess neither is a game changer but reminds me of something posted many pages ago considering the choices available to each side.  Since having a barracks/HQ within missile range of the enemy is obviously a bad idea, I suspect they reason RU do it is not (entirely) "Russia sucks" but that they have no other choice since they need to control unwilling ex-prisoners an mobiks and need to be that close to the front.  Not a good situation to be in if you are forced into mistakes.

 

And happy new year to you all!  Hope this can all end in 2023.

[kevinkin]

Not sure who the writer is, but below is a rather long and footnoted explanation (if not history) of the development of Resilience and Resistance in Ukraine:

 https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/resilience-and-resistance-ukraine

It is sort on unusual for Americans to think along the lines described within the article since we are protected by two great oceans. The thought of an occupying force never enters our minds  while our military focuses of expeditionary warfare. It's hard for the average American to understand how visceral the war is to both sides. Ukraine has been in a state of war constantly and that culture is simply difficult to overcome given proper Western support. What is interesting is the very last word in the report is "Taiwan".  The writer calls on the West to not merely document lessons learned from Ukraine but to begin to practice them. (My take anyway). Resistance warfare is not monolithic, like a motor boat with one engine. But many low tech oars rowing in the same direction without the need of a single navigator. 

 

 

[pintere]

Just checked the forecast for Melitopol. Though it’s still a ways out, it looks like Ukraine might finally get that cold snap it’s been waiting for. Anyone here have an idea of how many days of subzero temperatures it takes for the ground to freeze?

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, pintere said:

Just checked the forecast for Melitopol. Though it’s still a ways out, it looks like Ukraine might finally get that cold snap it’s been waiting for. Anyone here have an idea of how many days of subzero temperatures it takes for the ground to freeze?

Depends on how cold the ground is and how much water is sitting in it.  As you can see, night time temperatures are nice and cold starting on Wednesday with no sun and mild above freezing temps.  Saturday is the bugaboo because that rain is going to create a mess before things start to freeze up.  Hmmm... I'd guess infantry would be happy on Sunday, light wheeled vehicles by Monday, and everything else by Tuesday.

Steve

[billbindc]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Depends on how cold the ground is and how much water is sitting in it.  As you can see, night time temperatures are nice and cold starting on Wednesday with no sun and mild above freezing temps.  Saturday is the bugaboo because that rain is going to create a mess before things start to freeze up.  Hmmm... I'd guess infantry would be happy on Sunday, light wheeled vehicles by Monday, and everything else by Tuesday.

Steve

I would add a couple of days to those estimates. You'll have a frozen crust after a day or so but it will take some time for the mass of mud beneath it to freeze fully. 

[Astrophel]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Not sure who the writer is, but below is a rather long and footnoted explanation (if not history) of the development of Resilience and Resistance in Ukraine:

 https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/resilience-and-resistance-ukraine

....... But many low tech oars rowing in the same direction without the need of a single navigator. 

 

The author writes at the end  "In the realm of technology, possibly the greatest contribution to Ukrainian national resistance has been made by the Starlink system".  I was struck when Kherson was liberated how communications are at the top of the pyramid of needs for civilian morale, while the need in military operations is obvious.  I don't know if Starlink is still geofenced at the front line but those resisting on the Russian side might benefit, but then so might the RA - interesting trade-off.

The author does NOT mention the importance of narrative in either stiffening the will to resist, or undermining the will to fight.  And yet Ukraine is giving a master class.  In the next phase I would hope that the kremlin narrative can be undermined, promoting resistance in russia itself and undermining further the morale of the russian soldiers in the field.  Events like Makiiva can be game changers when communicated aggressively - referring to Beardieblokes point.

Russia has to start believing they might lose this war, and not to Nato but to the despised "hohols".  This will be the game changer.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Astrophel

[Harmon Rabb]

Now I have a HARM...Ho Ho Ho.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I would add a couple of days to those estimates. You'll have a frozen crust after a day or so but it will take some time for the mass of mud beneath it to freeze fully. 

At those 24 hour temps with moderate sun, 3 days for tracked vehicles should be sufficient.  I'm not saying it will be fully hard in all places, but it will be hard enough in most.  Areas that are naturally wetter will be the spots to be avoided for a few more days.

As someone who has had to suffer through 3 unseasonable warm periods this winter, I will remind people that it only takes a day or two of above freezing temps with sun to screw things up again.  I should know, I have a gravel driveway

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

I know it's not Germany Bashing Day yet, but...

 

 

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I know it's not Germany Bashing Day yet, but...

 

 

It is never good to bleep it up so badly your boss has to check in with his office on a holiday...

[Yet]

icegrowth (no wind, no snow) is 0.3 mm per degree minus per hour. 5 cm is needed for a person to stand/skate/walk run without any trouble count 25 cm for large groups or small vehikels. 

so example -6 deg x 10 hours = 60x0.3 mm is 1.8cm .

that counts 3cm after sunday, 11 after monday, 20 after tuesday. ...

ofc soil freezes easier soil than a pool. but i wouldnt expect a major offensive before thursday with this forecast