How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Welcome back friend! I’m glad you made it through. Merry Christmas (whether you’re celebrating on December 25 (Roman Sect) or December 27 (Eastern Sect as I understand it), all are Christians. 

You are a valued and trusted leader in this Forum, and we value you greatly!

Thank you ) Orthodox and Greco-catholics celebrate in Ukraine on 6-7th Jan, because we have difference between secular (Gregorian) and church (Julian) calendars. So, despite all churches celebrate on 25th Dec in secular world we have two weeks of difference. But in Ukraine since past year a discussion has started about western choice demands from churches switching to Gregorian calendar and 25th together with 7th was claimed as an official holiday. This year brought huge support for Christmss on 25th, mostly because "do not have any common with Russia", so Orthodox Church of Ukraine and Greco-Catholic churches made a statement they will establish a workgroup in order to develop proper decisions up to 2025 and prepare own people. Alas, many even pro-Ukrainian believers, especially in western Ukraine roughly stick for 7th Jan, because "this is our tradition", though they just don't want understand why this difference appeared and that their church really celebrates Christmass on 25th, but according to "old style". 

Religion in Ukraine is a part of political life, because more than 60% relate themselves to Christians, so it is matter what words theese people can hear from priests. 

We have two Orthodox churches - pro-Russian UOC MP (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchy) and pro-Ukrainian OCU (Orthodox Church of Ukraine), recognized by Konstantinopol Patriarch in 2018, which caused effect of exploded bomb in Russia, because church, subordinated to Moscow was one of element of influence of Russia on Ukraine and keeping it in own orbit. UOC MP still have huge influence in Ukraine not only among usual people, but also among politics and officials. Now SBU raiding and their churches and finds there tons of Russian symbolics, anti-Ukrainian, antisemitic and stupid conspiracy books and other materials, issued by Russian church. 

Also we have Greco-Catolic church, combining Orthodox  rite and subordinating to Pope.  Recently it  considered like mostly western ukrainian phenomenon, but in last years it spread own parishes far to the east. Greco-catholic church in western Ukraine in own time has played the same role that Catholic church in Poland, keeping national identity and spirit. 

Also we have Catholic community, most of their believers are in western Ukraine among ethnic Poles, but in last years Catholic community grows and on other territory, especially in Kyiv. My wife,for example is catholic and works in Catholic Institute, so we are celebrating two Christmass with our parents )

Edited December 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

"Candidate" from Wagner Group Head and Commander of Russian army in Ukraine heads western troops of Russia (yahoo.com)

Evgeniy Nikiforov, a candidate from the axis of Surovikin-Prigozhin [commander of the Russian army in Ukraine and head of Wagner Group – ed.], became the commander of the troops of the Western Military District of the Russian Federation instead of Sergei Kuzovlev from the axis of Shoigu-Gerasimov [Russian Defence Minister and his First Deputy, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation – ed.].

Source: Defence Intelligence of Ukraine on Telegram

Details: Defence Intelligence states that this is another rotation in the high command of the Russian Federation. Kuzovlev managed to stay in this position for only about a month.

Prior to this appointment, Nikiforov held the position of Chief of Staff: First Deputy Commander of the Eastern Military District.

Intelligence sources know that General Nikiforov is currently at the command post of the West troop grouping in the city of Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast.
Quote: "The formal reason for Kuzovlev's dismissal was the failure of preparations for the offensive on the Lyman front. However, in fact, this is a manifestation of an internal political struggle in the top leadership of the Russian Federation: a person from the Shoigu-Gerasimov axis is being replaced by a candidate from the Surovikin-Prigozhin axis."

Edited December 26, 2022 by sburke

[Beleg85]

Clip "from the trench" by Butusov channel, journalist is accompaning Polish volunteer called Lipton (talk is entirely in Ukrainian so not 100% sure if translated correctly) from 214 batallion. Guys have some long fighting history, from Kyiv, Zhytomierz road, Hostomel, Kharkiv, Rubizhne, Balakyisa, Lyman-Yampil, later after reorganization they headed to Donbas. They now operate around Bakhmut "in the mud up to the balls"

From 6:30 they participate in close combat to revisit one of their earlier positions where previous soldiers were assaulted by Russians. Several bodies of Ukrainian soldiers seem to be lying there, but they had no time to recover them earlier (he explains that they had other duties?). Also bodies of zeks or other Wagnerite lying there. They collect magazines and rifles. 12:50 they pass destroyed Russian vehicle. Later some jokes about language issues and how he manage to motivate all his men. Asked if he heard about hundreds of PL mercenaries, he said he met two by this time in central front and none at most important battles in southern Donbas.

Ok, not that much, but interesting view from the edge of the fighting nonetheless.

[sburke]

Russian magnate Pavel Antov dies after window fall in India (yahoo.com)

A Russian sausage magnate and politician who briefly criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has died after falling from the third-floor window of a luxury hotel in India.

Pavel Antov was a member of Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party and a multi-millionaire, having founded one of Russia’s largest sausage makers.

He was reportedly on a trip to celebrate his upcoming 66th birthday when he was found lying in a pool of blood outside the Hotel Sai International in Rayagada, a district in the southern state of Odisha.

An unnamed police official told India’s NDTV news outlet they suspected he took his own life after becoming depressed about the death of his friend who was found dead in the same hotel.

Vladimir Bidenov was found lying unconscious in his room on the first floor of the hotel on Thursday surrounded by empty wine bottles.

Mr Antov was chairman of the agriculture committee at the legislature in Russia’s Vladimir region and ranked the country’s highest-earning lawmaker by Russian Forbes, with a declared annual income of just under £130 million. He was the founder of Vladimir Standard, a major meat producer.

In July he posted a story on his WhatsApp messaging app, criticising Russia’s missile attacks on Kyiv as “terrorism”.

He was referring to reports of a girl that had been pulled out from rubble after her house had been shelled.

Shortly afterwards, Mr Antov apologised for the post, claiming that the message had been posted by someone else. He said he was “a supporter of the president and my country’s patriot” and “shared the goals” of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Alexei Idamkin, Russia’s consul-general in Calcutta, told the Tass news agency that there was no foul play in the lawmaker’s death.

A senior police officer was quoted by NDTV as saying Antov was depressed “due to the death of his friend''.

 

[FancyCat]

Someone on Twitter noted that people don't usually fall out of windows to their deaths and suggested it might be a "calling call" of Putin's security services.

Just after being appointed to something, he fires off a unhinged and racist tweet on 2023 predictions.

(Tweet was linked since it shows most of the stupidity) Ignore Elon, and I do think it's just "trolling" on part of Medvedev, since the first tweet references wild predictions and unrealistic events, but notable that a senior Russian government official is calling Ukrainians pigs, in English.

[BlackMoria]

 

21 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

(Tweet was linked since it shows most of the stupidity) Ignore Elon, and I do think it's just "trolling" on part of Medvedev, since the first tweet references wild predictions and unrealistic events, but notable that a senior Russian government official is calling Ukrainians pigs, in English.

Damn, that is some fine 'south american snow' going up noses.  I wonder what the Kremlin budget is for this commodity.

[danfrodo]

52 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Someone on Twitter noted that people don't usually fall out of windows to their deaths and suggested it might be a "calling call" of Putin's security services.

Just after being appointed to something, he fires off a unhinged and racist tweet on 2023 predictions.

(Tweet was linked since it shows most of the stupidity) Ignore Elon, and I do think it's just "trolling" on part of Medvedev, since the first tweet references wild predictions and unrealistic events, but notable that a senior Russian government official is calling Ukrainians pigs, in English.

That cannot be real......  please tell that lunatic Musk did not actually like this. 

 

[danfrodo]

Another thing that too many folks seem to miss:  if Putin & friends think someone is good..... then they are clearly not good.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Just after being appointed to something, he fires off a unhinged and racist tweet on 2023 predictions.

(Tweet was linked since it shows most of the stupidity) Ignore Elon, and I do think it's just "trolling" on part of Medvedev, since the first tweet references wild predictions and unrealistic events, but notable that a senior Russian government official is calling Ukrainians pigs, in English.

Nah he's just trying his hand at coming up with a theme for the next CM title.

[Beleg85]

One of first examples of Ukrainian sabotage group being wiped out in Russia. There are objections as to what extent it can be staged:

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

One of first examples of Ukrainian sabotage group being wiped out in Russia. There are objections as to what extent it can be staged:

 

 

Seems this is for real.  At first I had hoped it was just another example of FSB false flag propaganda, but what was shown in the pictures didn't have the usual and obvious signs of being faked.  Bullet hits in the trees, for example, is the sort of detail the FSB tends to not do.  Bodies and equipment look like they might have been moved around, but otherwise it had a ring of truth to it.  Then I saw someone had identified the four soldiers, so seems to be what it looks to be.  Unfortunately, this sort of thing is bound to happen. 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Good summary article of last month's RUSI report on Russian failures specific to Ukraine's ability to fool the Russians.

Quote

Ukraine has fooled Russian forces on numerous occasions, tricking Russian troops into wasting ammo on dummy targets and masking its own counterattacks. "Deception has succeeded against Russian forces at all echelons and across all three service branches," according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank.

The problem isn't that Russian soldiers are stupid or naive. Structural flaws in Russia's military make it vulnerable to deception, especially by an opponent as crafty and resourceful as Ukraine.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-military-being-easy-to-deceive-makes-deterrence-harder-2022-12

One of the elements that allows for this is Russia's inability to be honest.  Mistakes that could be learned from are falsely reported as success.  Can't learn from your mistakes if you don't think you have any.  Poor leadership culture and compartmentalization are also at work keeping Russia from improving.

This is exactly the sort of thing that drove me crazy about all the early war predictions from experts that Russia would learn from its mistakes.  For this to happen decades of military culture and doctrine would need to be changed.  The experts apparently thought that could be achieved in weeks or perhaps months.  I have no idea why.

Steve

[dan/california]

Every time i see a story like thi

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Seems this is for real.  At first I had hoped it was just another example of FSB false flag propaganda, but what was shown in the pictures didn't have the usual and obvious signs of being faked.  Bullet hits in the trees, for example, is the sort of detail the FSB tends to not do.  Bodies and equipment look like they might have been moved around, but otherwise it had a ring of truth to it.  Then I saw someone had identified the four soldiers, so seems to be what it looks to be.  Unfortunately, this sort of thing is bound to happen. 

Steve

Every time I see a story like this I think about Olaf Scholz. I don't think i have to explain WHAT i think about Olaf Scholz, or Schroeder for that matter....

[Battlefront.com]

Good article in Politico about recent changes to Ukraine's judicial structures, 2 good and 1 potentially bad:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-takes-two-steps-forward-one-step-back-in-anti-corruption-fight-constitutional-court-reform/

We've had a few discussions about the core of this article, but I found this one did a good job of bringing together many different aspects into one place.

Steve

[JonS]

9 hours ago, sburke said:

Russian sausage magnate

Dibbler cut his own throat?

[poesel]

On 12/26/2022 at 5:49 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

IMHO, over the long term, Russia's embrace of the Dragon is going to have much bigger consequences for the world than either Taiwan/SCSea or Ukraine, or even the future of Russia itself as a Kremlin-ruled concern. 

 

China will at long last control (even via RU clients) the sheer quantities of resources commensurate with its customary place in the world (i.e. approximately 30% of world GDP).  From a pure strategic resource supply standpoint (and I am setting aside climate issues and consequences here), it will achieve parity with the US without needing to overcome US ocean dominance.

Don't forget that Russia's economy is about the size of Canada (well, used to be). Not slight to the Canadians, but if either of them would decide to buy only Chinese electronics from now on, that wouldn't make a blip on the world market.
The danger is more political if Russia would become a satellite of China.

 

12 hours ago, Haiduk said:

We have two Orthodox churches - pro-Russian UOC MP (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchy) and pro-Ukrainian OCU (Orthodox Church of Ukraine),

I'm sorry, but I instantly thought of the Judean people's front and the people's front of Judea.

 

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

Every time I see a story like this I think about Olaf Scholz. I don't think i have to explain WHAT i think about Olaf Scholz, or Schroeder for that matter....

I didn't vote for neither and I shouldn't comment on such trollbait, but that is simply ridiculous. Next, he's responsible for bad weather or sour milk? If you haven't slept through this thread, you have read all the reasons why stuff is why it is wrt Germany.

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Dibbler cut his own throat?

Niiiiiiiice

Ankh-Morpork is good analog for Russia as a whole. Esp Wierd Regiments.... 

[_Morpheus_]

Some people within German Coalition also don't understand some Scholz decisions related to Ukraine:
https://www.rnd.de/politik/verteidigungspolitikerin-strack-zimmermann-kritisiert-ukraine-politik-wir-haben-keine-strategie-M7OSM52H6BG2XM2U56MGFJULYM.html

Edited December 27, 2022 by _Morpheus_

[LongLeftFlank]

9 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Someone on Twitter noted that people don't usually fall out of windows to their deaths and suggested it might be a "calling call" of Putin's security services.

Just after being appointed to something, he fires off a unhinged and racist tweet on 2023 predictions.

(Tweet was linked since it shows most of the stupidity) Ignore Elon, and I do think it's just "trolling" on part of Medvedev, since the first tweet references wild predictions and unrealistic events, but notable that a senior Russian government official is calling Ukrainians pigs, in English.

Oh sure, there's plenty of bear-riding weirdness to go around....

 

If not a deepfake, I assume this is from the Sacha Baron Cohen period of VZ's comic career?

...I mean look, it's no worse than Monty or Earl Mountbatten, or half the Romanov line, got up to, and the only one who should (perhaps) care about his kinks is his wife. But anyone who doesn't think today's Ukraine is culturally part of Europe is off [Their] rocker.

[Zeleban]

37 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If not a deepfake, I assume this is from the Sacha Baron Cohen period of VZ's comic career?

This is not a deepfake. This is a parody from the studio "Quarter 95" on the Ukrainian dance band KAZAKY (They also starred in Madonna's video "Girl Gone Wild"). This TV show aired in 2014. At that time, the creation of parodies was one of the main activities of Zelensky as a comedian.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Zeleban

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Don't forget that Russia's economy is about the size of Canada (well, used to be). Not slight to the Canadians, but if either of them would decide to buy only Chinese electronics from now on, that wouldn't make a blip on the world market.
The danger is more political if Russia would become a satellite of China.

Slight taken - and highly inaccurate assessment to boot.

First off we are not just talking about “electronics” we are talking about the entirety of Russian trade as the West won’t do business with Russia until some renormalization conditions post-war are met…right? Stuff like reparations payments and war crimes prosecution?  Looking at Europe pointedly here.

As for Canada, we do about .5 trillion dollars in trade with the US per year.  If that all walked over to China I am sure it would register as a “blip”.  The shift in oil and gas alone would likely freak everyone out even with the size of the US economy.

https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/canada/tradestats

As for Russia, well the news is not great.  Russia sells about $221B in oil and gas per year, and only about $45B of that to China.  If Russia can only sell oil and gas to China due to sanctions and this war it will quadruple the amount of exports available to China and other “outside” markets.  China is not stupid and will take advantage of Russias position to secure cheap energy.

https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/russia/tradestats
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/china

Now I am no business expert, but I am pretty sure pushing cheap energy in the direction of a competitor is never really the best outcome.  Now China has to access that energy, which will mean serious investment.  Or they could also buy the oil and gas companies in Russia and export the stuff back to Europe through loopholes.  I am sure there are very clever economics people who can hack the system here to ensure China comes out on top.

Point being is that Russia has the 11th largest economy on the planet and if it is pushed into Chinese orbit it will not exactly help the western cause.  Of course Russia will also be a social and political train wreck so making them China’s problem has a possible upside there.

I think LLF’s point is that the post-war geopolitical shift is going to have serious repercussions and we might want to put that in the old mental wheelhouses.

[womble]

10 hours ago, danfrodo said:

That cannot be real......  please tell that lunatic Musk did not actually like this. 

 

I think he's using "epic" in the sense of "epic fail", since he's fully aware that he cannot ever become US president, having been born in South Africa. Strange duck he may be, but sarcasm isn't beyond his capabilities.

[kevinkin]

Nothing like a vanilla year end what's up the next summary:

 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63987113?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

Number one and 5 seem likely with the big caveat"

The big question is how many Ukrainian forces are free and available for the offensive at this point, and what timetable General Zaluzhnyi has on his desk stating how many new reserve brigades and corps that are being built will be ready in one, two or three months from now, including manpower, armoured vehicles and heavy weapons.

[akd]

1 hour ago, womble said:

I think he's using "epic" in the sense of "epic fail", since he's fully aware that he cannot ever become US president, having been born in South Africa. Strange duck he may be, but sarcasm isn't beyond his capabilities.

Given some of his other recent activities and new Twitter “friends,” it’s not entirely clear that he is mocking or dismissive of the rant in general, and that itself is dangerous.  Musk has mocked Medvedev in the past, but here he is just amplifying him.

EDIT: oh, I see someone pointed out to him how irresponsible that was:

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by akd

[akd]

Kamikaze drones with RPG warheads: