How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

36 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Imagine how the Poles are angry with the words "Glory to Ukraine, glory to the heroes" After all, this is a greeting from the OUN-UPA. Moreover, these words are increasingly spoken by leading world politicians and international figures.

This is First National Liberation Contests (1918-1920) slogan, of Kholodnyi Yar rebels,  succeeded by UPA with some changes. Initially it was "Glory to Ukraine! For ever glory!"

Damned electricity! I wrote long answer to Beleg85, but hadn't time to press "send"

[Battlefront.com]

Two interesting videos from Dimitri just posted:

The first is some Ukrainian soldiers reporting from Bahkmut.  Most of the video is the usual stuff about the situation, but there is a hint as to why there's been some changes of terrain in Russia's favor every so often.  Which is that in order to not get slaughtered by artillery, the Ukrainian defenders regularly move around.  This is a smart thing to do, however it does introduce the possibility that the Russians will unexpectedly move into an area that isn't currently occupied by Ukrainians. 

This could explain why every so often the Russians seem to have a "breakthrough" to crow about on social media.  But then, almost as fast, they are ejected.  It's because they didn't really defeat the Ukrainians to take that ground, therefore the Ukrainians are still there for a counter attack.  And since the Russians didn't earn their gains, they aren't proven capable of holding them.

The next one is from Girkin.  Once again I find myself admiring the guy in a way.  Yes, he's a Fascist.  Yes, he should be hanging from a noose somewhere.  However, he has a very clear mind about what is really going on within Russia, with the war, and the battle with the West.  And he is saying so loudly, eloquently, and directly within a country where outspoken people like him tend to have sudden ill health, an accident, or found to be violating tax law.

In this video he makes a number of points.  First, he understands that what is going on in Ukraine is viewed by the rest of the world as criminal. Further, he is saying that Russia is going to collapse soon and so people need to be prepared for that, including for him the possibility of getting given over to The Hague.  For that to happen he's picturing a new Russian government that offers up its citizens in exchange for normalcy (reading a bit into this, but that's the implication).  That's quite a few dots he's correctly connecting.

As for the domestic situation, he continues on with his frequently expressed view that Putin is screwing this up, the economy is tanking, and that sooner rather than later the whole system will collapse.  His view is that fundamental restructuring of the government is needed and it has to be done within months, not years.  Of course he quickly states that he, personally, isn't working towards overthrowing the government.  Instead, he's just stating that unless it changes the things he just talked about will come to pass sooner rather than later.

Steve

[Haiduk]

NYT investigation about this war claims US tried to hide from Ukraine information about visit of Valeriy Gerasimov, Russian chief of the staff, to Izium. When UKR intelligence got info about Gerasimov visit, US officials tried to deny UKR strike on him, because they afraid this can lead to direct war with Russia. But process was already launched and strike was conducted. At least dozen of Russian servicemen were killed, but Gerasimov survived

Article in UKR: https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/12/17/7381219/

The source (very looooong reading): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html?fbclid=IwAR1stdBhRgWbcmwNfT6c01JQLJcTfirWrmbyL52-pZSQfuR9X0yP6ytSp7U

[Battlefront.com]

An example of Ukrainian bravery and perhaps why losses are so high.  Looks like a Ukrainian Humvee moves into a nest of Russian fortifications and just shoots the crap out of it, then withdraws.  Some other vehicle is seen on the left just at the end.  Friend, foe... who knows.

This sort of brazen disruption attack looks great because, as far as we can see, it went well.  But how many times have they tried this and done something like hit a mine or got whacked by an RPG or were surprised to find the defenders knew they were coming?  We've seen those videos too.

Steve

[Zeleban]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

An example of Ukrainian bravery and perhaps why losses are so high.  Looks like a Ukrainian Humvee moves into a nest of Russian fortifications and just shoots the crap out of it, then withdraws.  Some other vehicle is seen on the left just at the end.  Friend, foe... who knows.

This sort of brazen disruption attack looks great because, as far as we can see, it went well.  But how many times have they tried this and done something like hit a mine or got whacked by an RPG or were surprised to find the defenders knew they were coming?  We've seen those videos too.

Steve

Yes, in a CMBS game such an attack would be doomed to failure. The HMWV shooter would be doomed at such a short distance.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, in a CMBS game such an attack would be doomed to failure. The HMWV shooter would be doomed at such a short distance.

Sometimes, and only sometimes unfortunately, the Russians are just incomprehensibly bad. My working assumption is that is some combination of literally no training, and vodka. Several hundred pages ago Steve mentioned there need to be a new bottom tier of troop quality in the game. This would a case study in support of that.

[Ts4EVER]

Generally the element of complete surprise is hard to model in games like this.

[Zeleban]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Sometimes, and only sometimes unfortunately, the Russians are just incomprehensibly bad. My working assumption is that is some combination of literally no training, and vodka. Several hundred pages ago Steve mentioned there need to be a new bottom tier of troop quality in the game. This would a case study in support of that.

 

I think the game exaggerates the accuracy of small arms against machine gunners in turrets. And not only CMBS, but also in a series about the second world war. German shooters on half trucks die at the very beginning of the battle.

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Imagine how the Poles are angry with the words "Glory to Ukraine, glory to the heroes" After all, this is a greeting from the OUN-UPA. Moreover, these words are increasingly spoken by leading world politicians and international figures.

Yes, they were, and some still cannot force themselves to reciprocate it- for example TV anchors here simply couldn't spell second part "glory to the heroes" for first months when interviewing their Ukrainian guests, who were probably blisfully unaware of the slogan's origin and what it means for Poles. Many here still can't, especially that ethnonationalistic cancer is unfortunatelly real, alive and growing among population of Western Ukraine. A lot of work need to be done on Ukrainian historical identity, and I am not sure if our current strategy of "leave it for later, now they suffer because of war and have other things than discussion about a past" is actually right one, given that this war is formative period for Ukraine state and society.

Still, some symbols change their meaning in time. People do not associate "heroiom slava" slogan with genocidal nationalisms anymore (usually narration of slogan as associated with Sicz's Rifles comes in handy), and they can even tolerate these "Blood and Soil" black-red flags if going to Ukraine with help. However, you can agree that supplying people at your own expense who venerate absolutelly genocidal morons who barely 80 years earlier would cut their throats for just being Poles (or Jews, Hungarians or any other) resonates with very strange vibes among people doing charity work?

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is First National Liberation Contests (1918-1920) slogan, of Kholodnyi Yar rebels,  succeeded by UPA with some changes. Initially it was "Glory to Ukraine! For ever glory!"

Damned electricity! I wrote long answer to Beleg85, but hadn't time to press "send"

Yup, some of historians here associate it with "Sicz Rifles" (not exactly correctly, but that is minor issue), just as famous Chervona Kalyna, which Russian trolls here also tried to sell as "UPA song", fortunatelly ineffectively.

Ok Haiduk it is not against you or other folks here, just a food for thought about future of your country and national identity. I am fully aware of many wrongdoings on Polish side in the past as well, I really attended several dozens conferences on these topics in my 12-year long historical career and heard zilion of arguments from both Polish and Ukrainian historians of the topic (even stopped two who wanted to smash each other faces in my student's years...), so believe me- I get basic facts around Ukrainian nationalism and there are probably not many things you can surprise me on it.

The question is if collectivelly Ukrainians really want this kind of hatred to be cherished for another generations- because that will be effect of tolerating OUN/UPA heritage in your public spaces. There will be some day when society will need to grasp bull by the horns and stand in truth about genocidal past of this organization (and large part of population in Western Ukraine, who were forced or otherwise encouraged by UPA to participate in it), without whitewashing, victim-blaming and doing endless circles around basic obvious facts (mirroring what Russians do with their own narrations), which is sadly situation now among many Ukrainian historians, with several exceptions (perhaps ironically- mostly from Eastern Ukraine, where they can approach topic without bias). And facts are indeed brutal- probably 50-80 k innocent people were ruthlessly murdered in one of worst cases of targeted genocide, in already harsh times of WWII. Rwanda style, with machette, axe and scythe- not some impersonal "industry of death" like projected by Germans for Jews. It was personal, it was long-planned, targeted and executed by the same people who are now fast becoming symbols of Ukrainian statehood. I really don't care what UPA become in Ukrainian national mythology after these events, because it will always inherently be bases on false premises. There is no place among civilized people for narrations supporting such guys.

I would even say in the future your attitude to OUN/UPA will be a major test if you really want to collectivelly be part of Western hemisphere or prefer to stay inside never-ending cycle of lies like Russians. We did our job on many unpleasant and shameful episodes from our collective past, still not enough of it, but I can wholeheartadly say it is always beneficial for society in long run. Germans serve great example here.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

 

Footage of the battle in Bakhmut. The Russians managed to capture several quarters in the eastern part of Bakhmut (Grigb described this situation earlier). The video shows the counterattack of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the retreat of the Russians from positions

[pintere]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

I think the game exaggerates the accuracy of small arms against machine gunners in turrets. And not only CMBS, but also in a series about the second world war. German shooters on half trucks die at the very beginning of the battle.

100%. And if the metal shields are actually good at stopping small arms (short of HMG fire) then the gunner is no more exposed than his counterpart with a bipod MG. 

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Further comments about video above with a shelling of Wagner-troops on former UKR rectangular position near Ozarianivka

It's a position named "Basin" - this was abandoned small water reservoir. 

As told one UKR soldier after the position was heavy shelled and enemy suffered losses, the unit of some brigade tried to assault this position on 15th Dec, but assault failed - soldier told Wagners have here advantage in modern radios, drones w/thermals, NV sights and thermals (this correlates with Russian talks on LostArmor, that since October Wagner units became to get big number of modern equipments - digital radios, drones, thermal sights, takmed kits etc)

But on 17th Dec next assault, conducted by 46th air-assault brigade was successfull and position was recaptured with big losses for Wagners. Today a video is appeared from there (unblured corpses present)

Next, this soldier told Russians now are attacking through the dam over the canal, not counting with losses and as if only for one day they lost there about 100 KIA/WIA

 

What did the 46th do differently? Better recon, equipment, fires support,, leadership? 

How well equipped are the 46th in comparison to Wagner? 

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Two interesting videos from Dimitri just posted:

The first is some Ukrainian soldiers reporting from Bahkmut.  Most of the video is the usual stuff about the situation, but there is a hint as to why there's been some changes of terrain in Russia's favor every so often.  Which is that in order to not get slaughtered by artillery, the Ukrainian defenders regularly move around.  This is a smart thing to do, however it does introduce the possibility that the Russians will unexpectedly move into an area that isn't currently occupied by Ukrainians. 

This could explain why every so often the Russians seem to have a "breakthrough" to crow about on social media.  But then, almost as fast, they are ejected.  It's because they didn't really defeat the Ukrainians to take that ground, therefore the Ukrainians are still there for a counter attack.  And since the Russians didn't earn their gains, they aren't proven capable of holding them.

The next one is from Girkin.  Once again I find myself admiring the guy in a way.  Yes, he's a Fascist.  Yes, he should be hanging from a noose somewhere.  However, he has a very clear mind about what is really going on within Russia, with the war, and the battle with the West.  And he is saying so loudly, eloquently, and directly within a country where outspoken people like him tend to have sudden ill health, an accident, or found to be violating tax law.

In this video he makes a number of points.  First, he understands that what is going on in Ukraine is viewed by the rest of the world as criminal. Further, he is saying that Russia is going to collapse soon and so people need to be prepared for that, including for him the possibility of getting given over to The Hague.  For that to happen he's picturing a new Russian government that offers up its citizens in exchange for normalcy (reading a bit into this, but that's the implication).  That's quite a few dots he's correctly connecting.

As for the domestic situation, he continues on with his frequently expressed view that Putin is screwing this up, the economy is tanking, and that sooner rather than later the whole system will collapse.  His view is that fundamental restructuring of the government is needed and it has to be done within months, not years.  Of course he quickly states that he, personally, isn't working towards overthrowing the government.  Instead, he's just stating that unless it changes the things he just talked about will come to pass sooner rather than later.

Steve

Hey Girkin, Ya might start w ending the pointless and bankrupting war ya f-ing idiot.  Restructuring the government won't magically turn the steaming manure pile into gold.  There is nothing that is now being fought over that will yield 0.1% in profit relative to the cost of this war of choice.  All these people think that the only problem is how the war is being conducted, not the fact that the war itself is the problem.

[danfrodo]

NYTimes reports that UKR officials clarifying their belief on RU winter offensive.  It makes more sense now that they are saying it will be massed infantry attacks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-winter.html

Which gets back to a point I made yesterday that Putin would've think twice about killing millions of russians if it meant he could get some kind of victory out of this disaster.  Hopefully at some point russian powerbrokers or the russian population will rise up against this kind of butchery of their own.  But we've all been hoping that for 10 long months, sadly.

[Fenris]

[Fenris]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Further comments about video above with a shelling of Wagner-troops on former UKR rectangular position near Ozarianivka

It's a position named "Basin" - this was abandoned small water reservoir. 

As told one UKR soldier after the position was heavy shelled and enemy suffered losses, the unit of some brigade tried to assault this position on 15th Dec, but assault failed - soldier told Wagners have here advantage in modern radios, drones w/thermals, NV sights and thermals (this correlates with Russian talks on LostArmor, that since October Wagner units became to get big number of modern equipments - digital radios, drones, thermal sights, takmed kits etc)

But on 17th Dec next assault, conducted by 46th air-assault brigade was successfull and position was recaptured with big losses for Wagners. Today a video is appeared from there (unblured corpses present)

Next, this soldier told Russians now are attacking through the dam over the canal, not counting with losses and as if only for one day they lost there about 100 KIA/WIA

 

 

Second clips is aerial reconnaissance of the same, looks a mess.

 

[Bulletpoint]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

NYTimes reports that UKR officials clarifying their belief on RU winter offensive.  It makes more sense now that they are saying it will be massed infantry attacks.

It's incredible watching the Russians live up to every cliche and stereotype from WW2.

I'm beginning to think German war memoirs were actually more accurate than people usually give them credit for.

[Fenris]

Says referb'd ye olde M113 took an RPG hit.  Too hard to really see but somethnig definitely gives the don't argue with an M-2 at the end and it still appears to be under it's own power.

 

[kevinkin]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64016599

Fond memories of one of the final scenes in the film Titanic. Russia struck an ice berg named Ukraine and the band goes on. 

First viewed in Lyon France 25 years ago almost to the day while on business.  

[Fenris]

Seeing quite a few infantry clips today.  Best to watch in full screen, there's a shoulder patch at the end, Georgian Legion?

 

[NamEndedAllen]

12 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

Use the quote tool     

 

P

Thanks Pete. I would do exactly that, except I never see the quote tool selection. Looking even now, I see the U underline button, and next to it on the right is the link button. I also don’t have those font opytions you have. Must be a full or abbreviated tool choice in Settings, that I’ve never noticed?

[akd]

I’m beginning to think there might be something wrong with this country…

 

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

We did our job on many unpleasant and shameful episodes from our collective past, still not enough of it, but I can wholeheartadly say it is always beneficial for society in long run. Germans serve great example here.

This.

Most would probably agree that joining the community of “The West” (assuming that’s what Ukraine truly aspires to) is about more than just using NATO weaponry and signing up for free trade and a defensive alliance: It’s about striving towards a culture of (among other things) openness, honesty and integrity and that absolutely means listening to what other peoples think of your national ‘heroes’.  However what I would say is that that is *hard work*;  those within a nation who champion this kind of process are continually accused by those who oppose it of hating their country, distorting historical context or pandering to ‘foreign’ sensibilities and that kind of cultural tension could be… you know… ‘tough’ when you’re fighting an existential war.  So I guess I’m not sure Ukraine will have the collective emotional ‘bandwidth’ to tackle it right now.

Regarding media showing Ukrainians ‘mocking’ those who claim they’re Nazis: in any country “black humour” is ripe for misrepresentation and being co-opted by tomorrow’s political opportunists. Ukraine will have to decide for themselves whether the morale benefits of tolerating/encouraging such humour are worth the definite political cost of its inevitable misinterpretation (deliberate or otherwise).

[FancyCat]

I’m not worried about Ukraine, their civil society seems strong enough to keep pushing in the right direction, the EU is and will continue to be a powerful orientation point. The reproachment by both Poland and Ukraine will continue. S-300 destroyed in Kherson seemingly by Russian friendly fire, then became Russian properly destroying their equipment before leaving, more info uncovered in the tweet thread.

 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

12 hours ago, Huba said:

Also "paste as plain text" from browser context menu ( or Ctrl+SHift+V instead of Ctrl+V) allows you to drop the external formatting and instead displays forum's standard font - much easier on the eyes in general

Thanks! Those would be keyboard commands, yes? I’m using a tablet - no keyboard- which might be why the options are fewer. But thanks! Might be some alternative, although I can always just copy, paste and use quotes to indicate. Like I have been doing. But definitely not as slick looking.