How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

10 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

That video with the interview, no idea why I'm still listening to it. This guy is a crackpot. Yes Kherson was founded by the Russian Empire but today the ethnicity profile of the city if 70%+ Ukrainian.

And New York City was founded by the Dutch as New Amsterdam.  So I guess if Aragorn et al decide to take it back we are obligated to comply.  Fortunately my spies tell me that Aragorn is so busy w the new CMRT battle pack that NYC is safe for the foreseeable future.  

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

 

The idea that Congress won’t feed the MIC is frankly laughable.   

Such funding will have plenty of Democrat votes, so the fringe GOP members are not really an issue for passage, just good for ratings as mentioned.  
 

In the House, it's extraordinarily difficult for a bill to get to floor unless the majority allows it. So, yes, one or two votes in a tight majority can hold up pretty much anything. Will that be sustainable over time? Probably not. But we shouldn't underestimate the mischief that is about to be wrought.

[A Canadian Cat]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am absolutely baffled that anyone is listening to an former military officer whose analysis and predictions have been proven very wrong, repeatedly.  

It is rather astounding. But we see that repeated on lots of topics. Some crack pot repeatedly says one thing when any one can see it's just wrong and yet the keep doing it and some people seem to keep listening. I do find it bizarre though.

 

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As a professional military officer I am left wonder if he and I are watching the same war.  “Russia is holding back?”  Holding back what?!  And “for what?”

Exactly, holding back what? More T62s I suppose

I do want to segue into something that I am curious about: Where are all the long range missiles the RA keeps using to hit civilian buildings and disrupt the power system all over Ukraine coming from? I remember months ago there were charts showing they were running out and yet over the last few weeks they stepped up attacks dramatically. Of all the things that we have seen people predict and monitor the seemingly unending supply of Russian missiles is something I've been surprised by. Everything else in the war has gone about how reasonable people expected, except for the long range missile supply.

I am curious about peoples thoughts on this.

[Kinophile]

Those charts haven't been updated since

RUS is certainly still able to build missiles but what I've read is that they've heavily depleted their prewar stockpiles of components (Esp.  Chips)  and current sanction busting efforts are not enough to maintain the ROF. Not new news for us of course. 

So Iranian BMs are on the way and possibly in serious numbers. They'll continue to damage Ukraines infrastructure and try to basket-case its economy,  but I've read of quiet but significant efforts by the EU to organize a long term rebuild and sustainment of the UKR energy grid. So Ukraine will eventually get a rebuilt modernized power grid. 

Like with many things about the RUS Way Of War,  it's attempts at intimidation only end up making Ukraine more structurally resilient in the long run. 

[Pete Wenman]

Some front line reporting - worth a watch

 

P

[kevinkin]

One idea is that Russia maintains enough highly accurate missiles with sufficient payload to disrupt the power in the capital and any outlying areas that are on that grid. Additional cities and grids like Lviv are also under fire. Russia appears to be adding in a bunch of ground adapted SAMs,  Anti-ship missiles and Iranian buzz bombs to created alarm and overall havoc on civilians thereby demonstrating some sort of potency to their people. Here are couple of dated articles:

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/october/lessons-russian-missile-performance-ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-moscow-fb4f603cd7e8694e788eb764da9e23ac

Perhaps power grids are just too fragile to withstand a few aging cruise missiles getting through a blizzard of less capable systems that are providing interference for the true threat. This is a  interesting question since I don't know what a 100% home grown Russian cruise missile would be capable of. In any event, they will run out of precision and have to use a the shot gun vs a rifled approach. 

[Pete Wenman]

and for giggles

 

P

[Billy Ringo]

46 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Those charts haven't been updated since

RUS is certainly still able to build missiles but what I've read is that they've heavily depleted their prewar stockpiles of components (Esp.  Chips)  and current sanction busting efforts are not enough to maintain the ROF. Not new news for us of course. 

So Iranian BMs are on the way and possibly in serious numbers. They'll continue to damage Ukraines infrastructure and try to basket-case its economy,  but I've read of quiet but significant efforts by the EU to organize a long term rebuild and sustainment of the UKR energy grid. So Ukraine will eventually get a rebuilt modernized power grid. 

Like with many things about the RUS Way Of War,  it's attempts at intimidation only end up making Ukraine more structurally resilient in the long run. 

Whereas most of the western world is focused on developing, evolving and deploying cleaner and more efficient energy sources, Russia is off in their own little world blasting destructively away at anything seemingly normal and sane.   Completely alienating and distancing themselves from virtually everyone else and oblivious to their own demise---while blindly thinking they are the enlightened chosen ones.

I could be wrong on this one--but self-awareness doesn't seem to be one of Russia's strong points. 

Or, maybe they are starting to get it:

 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Billy Ringo
Added link

[rocketman]

32 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Those charts haven't been updated since

IIRC youtuber Jake Broe or Reporting from Ukraine did an update just a few days ago.

[Kinophile]

24 minutes ago, rocketman said:

IIRC youtuber Jake Broe or Reporting from Ukraine did an update just a few days ago.

Thanks! 

[Kinophile]

Hrmmmmm

First this, 

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/energoatom-head-russian-forces-may-be-preparing-to-withdraw-from-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant

Then this... 

https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-kremlin-denies-preparing-withdrawal-from-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant

.... 

[Vanir Ausf B]

I would not have guessed this.

 

[Kinophile]

"One time we hit 300 men."

"With one howitzer?" 

"Yes. We hit them with a string of,  I think,  nine shells. That event made us very happy". 

Weather really 300 men or not, even if you halve it that's still over a hundred.  So a RL example of @The_Capt's notes about Precision (1 gun!) beating Mass (and obviously with drone aid). Not just in 1v300, but that just one gun from a battery was able to handle a serious tactical situation all on its own. On the RUS side it would take the entire battery. 

In my own BS games as US I've often assigned 1-2 guns to even platoons.  1 to initial fires, second  gun to adjust/adapt to enemy reactions to the first gun impacts. 

https://www.rferl.org/a/howitzer-donetsk-ukraine-russia-precision-m777-morale/32154117.html

 

[rocketman]

46 minutes ago, rocketman said:

IIRC youtuber Jake Broe or Reporting from Ukraine did an update just a few days ago.

I misremembered, this is the one:

 

[Bulletpoint]

Apparently the Russians are now abandoning the BTG concept.

Source: The Telegraph quoting the British Ministry of Defence: (04:26)

 

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of Lantset hit at D-20 howitzer - mostly minor damages. Soldier shows pieces of fittings - Russians put in into warhead to increase of fragmental effect

 

 

[Zeleban]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Aftermath of Lantset hit at D-20 howitzer - mostly minor damages. Soldier shows pieces of fittings - Russians put in into warhead to increase of fragmental effect

 

 

 

It seems that the effectiveness of the "lancet" drone on hard targets is somewhat exaggerated.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Zeleban

[A Canadian Cat]

2 hours ago, rocketman said:

I misremembered, this is the one:

Fitting that @rocketman would find the info on the number of rockets

Interesting. They have a lot left. Crap. Especially since they are using the S300 missiles against ground targets.

The tweet from the Ukrainian defence minister:

Obviously the above has generated a lot of articles - but they are all based on these numbers. I suppose we have to wonder how accurate these are. With the US and allies intelligence the UA may well have pretty accurate numbers. That doesn't mean we get the perfect picture here of course. But as it has been said before the UA tends to play it straight so there is that.

Last month the Australian Broad Casting company wrote this:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-17/explainer-what-is-the-state-of-russian-missile-arsenal/101538356

Which has a lot less detail but seems to be close enough to the spirit. They are starting to run low but not out of their most advanced missiles but they have loads and loads of other less accurate ones left.

[Sojourner]

Since we're talking rockets now (rather than politics)... for what it's worth, Russia launched another GLONASS-M (GPS) satellite yesterday and have a classified payload (spy satellite) scheduled to launch tomorrow. The GLONASS system has a claimed 10-20 meter accuracy in military mode.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/kosmos-2564/

[rocketman]

33 minutes ago, IanL said:

Fitting that @rocketman would find the info on the number of rockets

Interesting. They have a lot left. Crap. Especially since they are using the S300 missiles against ground targets.

The tweet from the Ukrainian defence minister:

Obviously the above has generated a lot of articles - but they are all based on these numbers. I suppose we have to wonder how accurate these are. With the US and allies intelligence the UA may well have pretty accurate numbers. That doesn't mean we get the perfect picture here of course. But as it has been said before the UA tends to play it straight so there is that.

Last month the Australian Broad Casting company wrote this:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-17/explainer-what-is-the-state-of-russian-missile-arsenal/101538356

Which has a lot less detail but seems to be close enough to the spirit. They are starting to run low but not out of their most advanced missiles but they have loads and loads of other less accurate ones left.

I'm not sure about the exact details, but the S300 is very inaccurate vs ground targets, not that the ruzzians care if it hits a residential building or a playground

 

[Haiduk]

16 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

Yes Kherson was founded by the Russian Empire

Not quite. This is Russian state mythology - as if they came to wild steppes and brought there civilization and established cities. Partially this is true, but indeed all Russian cities "founded" in 18th century appeared not on emty place. 

On the place of Kherson since at least mid of 17th century (maybe and early) existed the town Bilhovychi or Belehovishche. It's nothing known about it and his population, except it was pointed on 17-18th century maps. And it name is Slavic (Ukrainian or Polish). The wide spaces of modern Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts in 17-18th centuries were under power of Budjak (or Akkerman) Horde, populated by Nogais - Turkic etnnic group, akin to Crimean Tatars. They were double vassals of Ottoman Empire and Crimean Khan. But very likely that in  theese steppes there was some symbiosys between Turks, Tatars and frontier people, cossacks and fugitives from Ukraine, who recognized their power in exhange to permission to settle here....

Probably turmoils of the end 17th century and further Russo-Turkish wars led to decline of Bilhovychy - this is unknown, on the maps of begining of 18th century this town already marked as "ruines". But Russians exactly here in previously settled place built initially St.Aleksandr Fort and further new city, named "in honor" of antique Khersones (now part of modern Sevastpol)

And this was everywhere in Black-Sea steppes. Russian had been conquering Tatars, Turkish cities and lands of Zaporozhian cossacks, eliminated and expalled population and initially settled there soldiers, workers and peasants (mostly from Ukriane) and later re-built theese cities on modern manner, giving them "Antique-Greek-like" names (Odessa, Kherson, Sevastopol, Mariupol, Nikopol), according to fasion of theese times - Catherine II and Potyomkin were fans of Ancient Greek culture. And removing by this old hystory of theese place, establishing own myth "we established theese cities, this is our land"

So Odesa - is fromer Turkish/Nogais fortress and port town Khadjibey (there is also version in 14-15 century it named Kotsiubiiv and was a southern port of Great Duсhy of Lithuania, but later has fallen in Tatarian hands). But indeed atique Odessos was on the place of modern Bulgarian Varna. 

Mykolaiv (Russain name Nikolayev) - was built on the place of likely Ukrainian/Tatarian town Vynohradna Krynytsia (or more polonized name Vinaradna Kricza - eng. "grape well"). The town in own turn was built on the place of old Lithuanian castle Vitovka

Sevastopol - former Tatarian harbour and city Akyar. But real Sevastopolis was on the place of modern Georgian Sukhumi in occupied Abkhazia

Nikopol - frormer Zaporozhian cossaks town Mykytyn Rih

Melitopol - Tatarian or Zaporozhian town Kyzyyar

Simferopol - Tatarian Aksmedzhit

And many, many other...   

Edited November 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

45 minutes ago, IanL said:

Interesting. They have a lot left. Crap. Especially since they are using the S300 missiles against ground targets.

On the contrary - if that breakdown is correct, Ukraine is almost out of the woods regarding the missile threat.

- Iskanders are the most dangerous of all of these, by far - the stock is almost depleted and they really have to keeps some for an emergency. Same is the Kinzhal
- Onyx while super potent as anti-ship weapon, has only 300 km range or so, and that's with the high-low flight profile. 
- S300 is purely a terror weapon, and not relevant to attacks on the infrastructure, and so is mostly the Kh-22
- Kh35 is way too short ranged to be useful against most of the UA territory

That leaves Kh555, Kh101 and Kalibrs. Given that in last attack Russians fired more than 100 of these, they have enough juice for only a few more waves.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Huba

[poesel]

Slovakia delivers 30 BMP-1 in exchange for 15 Leo A2s

 

[A Canadian Cat]

28 minutes ago, Huba said:

That leaves Kh555, Kh101 and Kalibrs. Given that in last attack Russians fired more than 100 of these, they have enough juice for only a few more waves.

Well that's encouraging.

 out of order....

28 minutes ago, Huba said:

- S300 is purely a terror weapon, and not relevant to attacks on the infrastructure, and so is mostly the Kh-22

That's not. They don't seem to care much about what gets hit. Are you saying that firing an S300 at a power substation would be ineffective? I would worry they would just launch 20 instead and cause all kinds of havoc.

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, IanL said:

Are you saying that firing an S300 at a power substation would be ineffective?

They can hit only limited number of tagets whithin Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts with theese missiles