How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Which scenario will happen?  OK, my real question is how do you think the Ukrainian forces will maintain their momentum and keep the overall initiative? Will the presumed strengthened Russian offensive overcome the Bakhmut defense and continue? Will they attempt or threaten a second offensive, perhaps from Belorussian territory in an attempt to tie down freed up Ukrainian units from Kherson, and to lessen chances of a new major Ukrainian thrust?

I think UKR will, as Steve mentioned, regroup for a short bit, but it will also be busy.  I think UKR will begin 'shaping the war'.  They'll work to threaten things Putin values the most, getting Putin to reinforce there.  Then while he's protecting his face they'll kick him in the nuts or knees.  Like w the Kharkiv operation.  But they'll keep at least some pressure in multiple places. 

About Biden, as per above:  Let's credit all the leaders who had the courage and vision to do the right thing and convinced the wavering ones to join in.  Biden, B Johnson UK, Poland, and others -- the ones who worked diligently and relentlessly, mostly behind the scenes, to build the huge coalition of support for UKR.  The sanctions that no one thought possible.  The huge amounts of arms and aid.  We were all later and less than needed in material support early in this war, but credit and honor to those that led the way.

[danfrodo]

40 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So why are the Americans desperate to offer a deal? Because they may be sensing the next Russian move with the arrival of General Winter should be capable of conclusively winning the war on Moscow’s terms. That would include slamming the Polish border shut via a long arrow move from Belarus downwards. With weaponizing supply lines cut, Kiev’s fate is sealed.

WTF -- someone actually said something this stupid?  LLF, you must've 'bout spit out your beer when you saw this.  RU is gonna come screaming down from Belarus?  In what?  Old Ladas???  Riding horses and cows???

Americans aren't desperate for a deal.  But having negotiations just shows that you're at least trying to end this w/o more bloodshed, even if the UKR demands are something Putin won't accept (as they damn well should be!!)

[FancyCat]

I believe a key aspect of western reluctance and restraint is offering Putin the chance to leave Ukraine with some semibalance of a military and some ability to craft a saving grace narrative than being forced out by Ukrainian tanks.

I believe that Kherson is where Ukraine has decided to do the same. If we recall, upon the beginning of the campaign to disable the bridges over the Dnipro, high ranking officials in the Ukrainian government voiced publicily that Russia should leave the right bank and save the lives of their troops and that the bombardments were designed to emphasize their inability to hold it and supply them.

Again, it is important for Russia to suffer military defeat, deaths, and retreat but equally important for Ukraine to conserve their equipment, personnel, and civilians and infrastructure for the rest of the war as much as possible. The emphasis on regaining their PoWs, ensuring the evacuation of civilians from the frontlines and their efforts to maintain infrastructure speak to that regard.

 

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It's piece by Samuel Charap, one of the more famous "realists". Like most of them now, he may be temporarly "unavailable" for comments for some time. Important business travel or something similar...

A good advice for the future whom NOT to read regarding geopolitics (some list of failed articles in the comments, by him and other Machiavelli wannabies):

He had another op ed in the NYT in July urging the US to work on negotiating a cease-fire then, presumably with something like the lines at the time.  I saw the first one about the "weapons won't help" some time ago but well after Ukraine had shown itself to be quite effective and Russia not so much.  None of his analysis seems to be based on much  real insight into the actual situations he's writing about.

[G.I. Joe]

10 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

In Canada, on this our Remembrance Day - besides remembering the sacrifice of Canadians in various conflicts and peacekeeping missions, I am also very aware of the huge loss of life in service of the Ukrainian soldiers who fought for their homeland and their people.  I am reminded all the time.  In Manitoba, our province has a immense Ukrainian Canadian  population and I can't go anywhere without seeing Ukrainian flags everywhere.  And a lot of Ukrainian Canadians returned to Ukraine to fight for their ancestral homeland.   Some will return home to Canada some day, others will not. The sad reality of war.

So on this Remembrance Day, I raise my stein as in past Remembrance Days and intone that simple ancient Norse toast - "To Our Honored Dead!"    I include all Ukrainian soldiers who have lost their lives thus far in that toast.   They have truly earned entry into the Halls of Valhalla.

 Sláva Ukrayíni!

 

Well said.

I was pleased to note that one member of the colour party in the Remembrance Day parade here in North Vancouver was carrying a Ukrainian flag.

[LongLeftFlank]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

WTF -- someone actually said something this stupid?  LLF, you must've 'bout spit out your beer when you saw this.  RU is gonna come screaming down from Belarus?  In what?  Old Ladas???  Riding horses and cows???

Americans aren't desperate for a deal.  But having negotiations just shows that you're at least trying to end this w/o more bloodshed, even if the UKR demands are something Putin won't accept (as they damn well should be!!)

Isn't it supposed to be yaks?

No, I'm far past being surprised by this kind of mythomania. In any case, I have far better things to do with my San Mig Lights. What hasn't already been said?

... you'd think the Old Left might have learned from the horrid example of all-time Useful Idiot, George Bernard Shaw, who visited Moscow in 1931 and following a fine banquet smugly pronounced the Russians to be 'uncommonly well fed'. 

But no, pace Talleyrand, they have "forgotten nothing and learned nothing."  Tankies have joined the paleos in the ancien regime they spent their lives despising.

Edited November 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, chrisl said:

He had another op ed in the NYT in July urging the US to work on negotiating a cease-fire then, presumably with something like the lines at the time.  I saw the first one about the "weapons won't help" some time ago but well after Ukraine had shown itself to be quite effective and Russia not so much.  None of his analysis seems to be based on much  real insight into the actual situations he's writing about.

That "weapons won't help" claptrap showed that the guy has absolutely no idea how modern warfare works at the tactical level.  Putting aside all the things we know about how badly Russia was set up for this war, the thought that Javelins and NLAWs "won't help" in a highly forested home environment against a roadbound vehicle heavy force should play some CMBS. 

He also doesn't seem to understand that tactical victories tend to produce operational wins which, theoretically, produce strategic victory.  The theory about strategic victory runs into problems for the attacker when fighting a counter insurgency.  Which isn't a problem for Ukraine since it's not fighting an insurgency.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

9 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

No wonder the dam got damaged:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

I think UKR will, as Steve mentioned, regroup for a short bit, but it will also be busy.  I think UKR will begin 'shaping the war'.  They'll work to threaten things Putin values the most, getting Putin to reinforce there.  Then while he's protecting his face they'll kick him in the nuts or knees.  Like w the Kharkiv operation.  But they'll keep at least some pressure in multiple places. 

Agreed. But I think they've been doing the regrouping for at least a month now, while continuing to train up on new equipment and kit out for winter.  So by the first hard freeze in the south, it could well be the UA that throws the first new punch.

....Not to underestimate the costs of the war over the past 30 days, but it seems to me the pushes on Kherson, Svatove and the high intensity defence against Wagner in the Donbass zone has been conducted by rotating UA forces in place, not committing reserves.  But most of what I 'know' has been from passively reading here (cuz work).

Last comment, recovering the 2nd largest city after Mariupol (?) to fall under the Russians in a fairly undamaged state is a big nonmilitary win; it seems to be the key civil hub for that entire area. Of course, it still lies on the front lines so its suffering isn't over yet.

P.S. I love Armenian and Georgian wine, and also dessert wines, so I am going to make a point of putting some of my wine money into Ukraine's wine industry as soon as I can get it here in Asia.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Note!

 

[kevinkin]

Milley's comments in NY this week makes you wonder. He must have enough knowledge to understand the effect of Ukraine's casualties on what it can and can't do for the next few months at the operational level. This is a full blown proxy war. I am confident that the western side is trying to find the best way to kick Russia out with what Ukraine has and what is in the pipeline. That pipeline will be well armed and trained. Other than a full retreat back to Russia, digging in might help Ukraine find "weak spots" that small mobile well trained forces can strike into. Here superior ISR will be key. Perhaps not just to hold ground at first. Call them thunder runs for lack of a better phrase. Punches aimed to kill and spook the Russians holding out. Find, fixed and destroy ... and then move back to relative safety. It's sort of like a small expanding crack in a dam. Looks harmless at first and then it all gives way. Come to think of it, Russia just sitting on Ukrainian land places them in the world's crosshairs. Ukraine can treat the less mobile RA like a punch drunk in the corner. Don't knock them out until the wounds are so deep as to never heal and disfigure forever. However, Milley's comments on casualties needs watching since did use the n-word ... negotiation. His words hold a lot of weight. 

In comments at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, Milley praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment,” Milley said. - CNN 

I don't know, but perhaps Milley thinks this is the right time so NATO ground troops don't need to be committed given the status of the UA. Maybe it's all about force numbers moving forward, stopping civilian suffering, and then rebuilding. Difficult nut to swallow. I would love to see the cards Ukraine and NATO has to play. Hopefully, Milley is bluffing. 

Edited November 12, 2022 by kevinkin

[Grossman]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Milley's comments in NY this week makes you wonder. He must have enough knowledge to understand the effect of Ukraine's casualties on what it can and can't do for the next few months at the operational level. This is a full blown proxy war. I am confident that the western side is trying to find the best way to kick Russia out with what Ukraine has and what is in the pipeline. That pipeline will be well armed and trained. Other a full retreat back to Russia, digging in might help Ukraine find "weak spots" that small mobile well trained forces to strike into. Here superior ISR will be key. Perhaps not just to hold ground at first. Call them thunder runs for lack of a better phrase. Punches aimed to kill and spook the Russians holding out. Find, fixed and destroy ... and then move back to relative safety. It's sort of like a small expanding crack in a dam. Looks harmless at first and then it all gives way. Come to think of it, Russia just sitting on Ukrainian land places them in the world's crosshairs. Ukraine can treat the less mobile RA like a punch drunk in the corner. Don't knock them out until the wounds are so deep as to never heal and disfigure forever. However, Milley's comments on casualties needs watching since did use the n-word ... negotiation. His words hold a lot of weight. 

In comments at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, Milley praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment,” Milley said. - CNN 

I don't know, but perhaps Milley thinks this is the right time so NATO ground troops don't need to be committed given the status of the UA. Maybe it's all about force numbers moving forward, stopping civilian suffering, and then rebuilding. Difficult nut to swallow. I would love to see the cards Ukraine and NATO has to play. Hopefully, Milley is bluffing. 

For the next and final stage of this war UKR needs more and better tanks and F-15's to control air space over the battlefield.  Otherwise we may see a costly stalemate. 

[theforger]

They've been generously donated quite a few from Russia. Over 550 abandoned and captured tanks to date.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Captured includes approx 87x T-72B, 145x T-72B3s 138x T80s and 13x T90s. Excludes abandoned, and captured but damaged.

Agree with the sentiment though. The West should be doing everything it can in terms of supply and weaponry. Russia is on the back foot and this is the best opportunity to clear them out. 

ISW on August 14 reported

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-14

Russian military leadership has likely rushed a mix of forces to this area to defend it against an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive, which likely explains the wide variety of force groupings in this area. ISW has observed elements of the 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies (CAA) of the Eastern Military District (EMD), the 22nd Army Corps of the Black Sea Fleet, the 49th CAA of the Southern Military District (SMD), 76th Guards Air Assault Division, and Rosgvardia throughout Southern Ukraine.

To defeat all that was some achievement...it depends how much of it remains intact.

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Milley's comments in NY this week makes you wonder. He must have enough knowledge to understand the effect of Ukraine's casualties on what it can and can't do for the next few months at the operational level. This is a full blown proxy war. I am confident that the western side is trying to find the best way to kick Russia out with what Ukraine has and what is in the pipeline. That pipeline will be well armed and trained. Other a full retreat back to Russia, digging in might help Ukraine find "weak spots" that small mobile well trained forces to strike into. Here superior ISR will be key. Perhaps not just to hold ground at first. Call them thunder runs for lack of a better phrase. Punches aimed to kill and spook the Russians holding out. Find, fixed and destroy ... and then move back to relative safety. It's sort of like a small expanding crack in a dam. Looks harmless at first and then it all gives way. Come to think of it, Russia just sitting on Ukrainian land places them in the world's crosshairs. Ukraine can treat the less mobile RA like a punch drunk in the corner. Don't knock them out until the wounds are so deep as to never heal and disfigure forever. However, Milley's comments on casualties needs watching since did use the n-word ... negotiation. His words hold a lot of weight. 

In comments at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, Milley praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment,” Milley said. - CNN 

I don't know, but perhaps Milley thinks this is the right time so NATO ground troops don't need to be committed given the status of the UA. Maybe it's all about force numbers moving forward, stopping civilian suffering, and then rebuilding. Difficult nut to swallow. I would love to see the cards Ukraine and NATO has to play. Hopefully, Milley is bluffing. 

Like I said, the west is probably suggesting to Putin he can have his military, what's left of it, back, without being further depleted. But...as Biden has remarked, Putin must leave Ukraine for peace. He can bring home Russian soldiers but he must concede all of Ukraine back to it.

[Yet]

16 hours ago, kraze said:

"we give the ruler absolute fulness of power"

I mean he is not wrong and says what an average russian thinks and what's important to understand - dictatorships are in fact much more 'democratic' than democracies, because they absolutely have to answer to demands of all (or at least absolute majority) people, whereas democracies would never have a ruler that represents 80-90% of people. Hardly even a half much of the time.

And what this also means is that an average russian (as also evidenced by their cries full of pain elsewhere and anywhere) becomes disappointed with the ruler because he doesn't seem to follow people's wishes. And in a dictatorship-based state only rulers with 80-90% support can ever stay alive.

"

"Surrendered at Kherson, gonna surrender at Moscow"

democracy is not doing what the majority of the people want.

 

democracy is doing what the majority wants while taking the wills of the minority in account.

and that is a big difference, which dictators are usually not very good at (other than that most dictators just really tell the people what they have to want).

 

Democracy is more that counting votrs casted in freedom. Shine this light of democracy on a nation and see how much of a 'democracy' that nation really is ;).

 

[poesel]

9 hours ago, OldSarge said:

I do think future historians will see Biden as a pivotal figure for international affairs. If for no other reason than the fact that he was able to assemble a competent team of professionals who could do their jobs in the background.

That is by far the best thing any leader could do. You can be happy to have one of those.

On the contrary, the worst leaders are those who think they know best and don't listen to others. IIRC that is basically the (or one of the) first chapter(s) in Machiavelli's book.

Edited November 12, 2022 by poesel

[Beleg85]

Just to raise morale. Today first journalists reach Kherson. Russian comments at Telegram they are of course actors; there is significant coursing on ineffectivness of Russian military. Turbo-patriots seem to be especially angry, morons really believed Kherson was now Russia and populace was largely supportive. They feel extra betrayed.

Also:

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[womble]

Am I correct in thinking that Ukraine would be entirely within their rights under the "Rules of War" (that they do seem to be trying to adhere to) to shoot these guys at dawn tomorrow? Soldiers who try and disguise themselves as civilians forfeit their rights, AIUI, and can be treated as saboteurs/spies...

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I dont know, it's not clear.  I'm inferring to a broad conclusion, but it's certainly not the only possible interpretation. 

Essentially,  I'm taking the relatively non-violent nature of the evacuation to imply some level of contact between the UKR and RUS operational level force HQs. Then, because Putin's war is a military operation conceived,  driven and defined by personal, political considerations I'm asuming that any peer-level communication is framed by those internal political pressures.

Putin has repeatedly denied the validity and equivalence of Ukrainian political structures and demands -  instead everything Ukraine says or does is supposedly a mindless expression of the true foe,  NATO/West/Hilary Clinton/whatever, so anything Ukraine says is dismissed out of hand if it does not match exactly with the True Enemy(tm)'s line of thought. 

If there was a localized agreement between the UKR and RUS militaries, then that means part of Putin's domestic power structure is now dealing with the Ukrainians in a rational, realistic manner contrary to Putin's ideological framing of the "Ukrainian Problem" as a Western sock puppet with Biden's geriatric arm up their butts.

So someone or group of someone's in the Putin's power structure has clear eyes on the real nature of their situation and accepts the political concepts that 1) the Ukrainians themselves are a deciding faction, and 2) Putin's ideological approach is unrealistic/ unusable - and has acted on that. Russians must therefore deal with Ukraine direct, which is contrary to the fundamental tenet of Putin's War that Ukraine has no agency of its own and is but the benighted, simple creature of Nefarious NATO. 

So I'm extrapolating a lot, I'm aware, and the theory is entirely dependent on if there was actual communication and negotiation between the opposing militaries. 

I'm still only watching, and thinking,  pondering, squinting... 

Now that is very true and generally right direction of thoughts. I am still not convinced there was an agreement, but in case there were already well established (limited) channels for mundane necessities like exchange of prisoners, maintainance of pipes etc. But they could also deal at higher level, including unofficial diplomatic.

 I am still baffled for some reason about this visit of Jake Sullivan, it seemed unscheduled and there was visible reinvigoration on diplomatic front within countries supporting Ukraine something like 1-2 weeks ago. I connected this with Putin's sign of weakness after grain deal and topic of US elections, but it could also be about managing Kherson withdrawal. It is pure speculation, of course.

As to Putin's personal perception of Ukraine, it is still doubtfull he treats AFU as equals at any level; mind of old Emperor rarely change and he view them as "Pentagon shills" that are temporarly successful probably more than ever. However you are right he started to listen to his generals, and whole long, several-weeks old operation of leaving Kherson is one of the sign of that.

We will need to observe carefully how tunes of official Russian propaganda change in forecoming weeks. Mood among nationalists is (pleasantly)  grave, but as we discussed many times before they are not good indicator of Kremlin policies. Murder of Stremousov again visibly demonstrates where they can shove their genuine nationalistic zeal.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Milley's comments in NY this week makes you wonder. He must have enough knowledge to understand the effect of Ukraine's casualties on what it can and can't do for the next few months at the operational level. This is a full blown proxy war. I am confident that the western side is trying to find the best way to kick Russia out with what Ukraine has and what is in the pipeline. That pipeline will be well armed and trained. Other than a full retreat back to Russia, digging in might help Ukraine find "weak spots" that small mobile well trained forces can strike into. Here superior ISR will be key. Perhaps not just to hold ground at first. Call them thunder runs for lack of a better phrase. Punches aimed to kill and spook the Russians holding out. Find, fixed and destroy ... and then move back to relative safety. It's sort of like a small expanding crack in a dam. Looks harmless at first and then it all gives way. Come to think of it, Russia just sitting on Ukrainian land places them in the world's crosshairs. Ukraine can treat the less mobile RA like a punch drunk in the corner. Don't knock them out until the wounds are so deep as to never heal and disfigure forever. However, Milley's comments on casualties needs watching since did use the n-word ... negotiation. His words hold a lot of weight. 

In comments at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, Milley praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment,” Milley said. - CNN 

I don't know, but perhaps Milley thinks this is the right time so NATO ground troops don't need to be committed given the status of the UA. Maybe it's all about force numbers moving forward, stopping civilian suffering, and then rebuilding. Difficult nut to swallow. I would love to see the cards Ukraine and NATO has to play. Hopefully, Milley is bluffing. 

I am sure Gen Miley has better data.  I am not sure him or his staff really know what to do with it though.  No one in at least two generations in the West has ever been in a war of this scope, scale of parity intensity.  Iraq was big but it was no where near a peer-level conflict.  Further, no one in those rooms have ever been in a modern war like this either.

The actions of the UA this Fall are not stalemate, they are asymmetric offensive operations.  Now whether the UA has enough in reserve to finish the job?  That is a good question.  Are they exhausted and at risk of losing strategic initiative?…not from what I have seen.  I also challenge the very metrics being employed to determine what “exhausted” really means.  We just watched the UA erode the RA out of a major strategic objective with force ratios in the 1.5 to 1:1 range.  They did it without large heavy formations or air superiority for the most part - which from a western operational planning simply does not compute.

So ultimately the UA will need to decide when it is done, the ball is in their court on when this war ends (gawd, remember all the “this war will only end when Putin decides!”?).  For now I see a lot of “of it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it” way ahead until the UA truly decides it has run out of gas.

As to winter warfare - my estimate is that it vastly favours the UA.  Winter warfare comes down to training, experience and logistics - with a small addendum for ISR.  The UA live in Ukraine and have been training to fight there as they are now for at least 8 years.  The RA has been pulling a bunch of conscripts, most with likely zero winter warfare training or experience - urban kids are in for one crappy time. Logistics - the pull on logistics in the winter time goes up dramatically.  Everything from vehicle maint, supply and medical goes up a lot.  Now which side seems to be doing better on the logistics front?  Finally ISR, this one is weird as depending on the terrain tree and vegitaiton cover fades and thermals get pretty happy.  This may actually make life easier for the RA ISR-wise but they  have had real problems linking in a targeting enterprise, something I am not sure they will fix in the middle of winter.  ISR for the UA will also get easier at the tactical level; however, I strongly suspect operational and strategic is already multi-spectral.  However, however, the UA have already demonstrated a world class targeting enterprise in action, and now after the Fall offensive, is full of veterans while the RA got a lot of theirs killed by UA deep strike.

So adding that all up, I expect a UA reset but I do not think they are done yet.  Barring a major political shift (eg Putin falls out a window), and this war continues, my bet is a major UA winter offensive - my money is on that “strategic land bridge” being cut - that is a whole lotta frontage to defend for the RA.  General Winter is on the UA’s side as far as I can see - based on RA logistics performance the environmental casualties are going to be horrendous, but we will simply have to wait and see.

[Huba]

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, womble said:

Am I correct in thinking that Ukraine would be entirely within their rights under the "Rules of War" (that they do seem to be trying to adhere to) to shoot these guys at dawn tomorrow? Soldiers who try and disguise themselves as civilians forfeit their rights, AIUI, and can be treated as saboteurs/spies...

It's tricky stuff to do in a way that passes scrutiny.  If these guys were armed, that would be a clear violation of the Geneva Conventions and they would, therefore, be outside of its protections.  However, unarmed mobiks trying to avoid being captured... nah, I don't think popping them in the head and spitting on their still warm bodies would go over very well at all.  PR wise for sure, but probably not legally either.  Which is why if the roles were reversed we could be very sure Russia would do it as they obviously don't care about PR or the rule of law.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

"We're getting closer to the day when talks are at least going to start happening"

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

IDK?

Edited November 12, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Milley's comments in NY this week makes you wonder. He must have enough knowledge to understand the effect of Ukraine's casualties on what it can and can't do for the next few months at the operational level. This is a full blown proxy war. I am confident that the western side is trying to find the best way to kick Russia out with what Ukraine has and what is in the pipeline. That pipeline will be well armed and trained.

Yup.  I don't think it's right for people to jump down the throats of people who have had Ukraine's back the whole time just because they say something about negotiations.  The implication from this type of person is that Putin would have to offer something that Ukraine finds preferable to fighting.  That is, uh, what negotiations are   The only reason why we've not seen any of this thus far is because Putin absolutely refuses to negotiate.

The other reason I get a hair across my bum when people slam even the mention of negotiations is that Ukraine has the right to refuse whatever is offered to it.  They've been doing it for the whole war, in fact.  There is NO HARM in hearing options from Russia once they stop with the maximalist nonsense.

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Other than a full retreat back to Russia, digging in might help Ukraine find "weak spots" that small mobile well trained forces can strike into. Here superior ISR will be key. Perhaps not just to hold ground at first. Call them thunder runs for lack of a better phrase. Punches aimed to kill and spook the Russians holding out. Find, fixed and destroy ... and then move back to relative safety. It's sort of like a small expanding crack in a dam. Looks harmless at first and then it all gives way.

I've been advocating for this since the first month of the war when, basically, Ukraine tried this and had great success.  It is corrosive maneuver warfare vs. corrosive positional warfare we've seen so far.  If anybody could figure out how to implement this in practice, my money (ALL of my money) is that Ukraine is the ones that can do it effectively.

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Come to think of it, Russia just sitting on Ukrainian land places them in the world's crosshairs. Ukraine can treat the less mobile RA like a punch drunk in the corner. Don't knock them out until the wounds are so deep as to never heal and disfigure forever.

This is basically what Ukraine has been doing the whole war, even when Russia was at its strongest and Ukraine its weakest.  I love imagining what it can do now that the status of each is flipped the other way.

Steve