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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Now folks watch how the Kremlin narration will unfold, it is very interesting case study of spin:

1. Zakharova in weekly briefing states that Russia is open to negotiations on "reality basis"; visibly different tone than usual. Tankies/pacifists/"realists"/business tycoons around the world rejoice.

2. Russia withdraw from Kherson, playing the victim. This time "Goodwill Gesture" is very well prepared from propaganda standpoint. Beforementioned rejoice even more, push for giving something to Russia.

3.Ukrainians dont' give a flying flamingo about negotiations, come in, firmly demand all territories be given back.

4. Zhelensky becomes warmonger. Open tankies are outraged, appeaser/sceptical governments are scholzing about "unconstructive attitude" of Ukrainian leadership.

5. Putin has some benefits from whole situation; pressure on Ukraine increase. Not a victory, but also not total defeat.

Edited by Beleg85
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17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Now folks watch how the Kremlin narration will unfold, it is very interesting case study of spin:

1. Zakharova in weekly briefing states that Russia is open to negotiations on "reality basis"; visibly different tone than usual. Tankies/pacifists/"realists"/business tycoons around the world rejoice.

2. Russia withdraw from Kherson, playing the victim. This time "Goodwill Gesture" is very well prepared from propaganda standpoint. Beforementioned rejoice even more, push for giving something to Russia.

3.Ukrainians dont' give a flying flamingo about negotiations, come in, firmly demand all territories be given back.

4. Zhelensky becomes warmonger. Open tankies are outraged, appeaser government are scholzing about "unconstructive attitude" of Ukrainian leadership.

5. Putin has some benefits from whole situation; pressure on Ukraine increase. Not a victory, but also not total defeat.

"I have returned one of your 6 children I kidnapped, so now let's have peace"

UKR:  you did return the child, we took it back from you by force.  Return the rest

"Warmonger!   We'll nuke you and all your friends!"

But this is great news about Kherson.  I am wondering how much actual planning has occurred, obviously some w the bridges being blown.  But I also wonder if RU saw the front collapsing, not by choice, and this was a contingency plan for that.

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30 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

Big if true !

 

 

Fog Eating Snow - it is slow...until it becomes fast.  If true, it does show the RA may be learning as this looks like it avoids the uncontrolled collapse that happened around Kharkiv.  But the amount of hardware and resources left behind will determine if this was a Dunkirk or not.  Either way it would appear - again if confirmed - that the UA has solved for offence in two operations now.

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50 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

Big if true !

 

 

russians die in hundreds daily for bits of ground, they are ready to keep dying for nothing as long as it serves the "greater purpose" - but losing what they stole is never it. I would hardly believe it's not some kind of trap for which they've been preparing for months. Hope our MoD knows better.

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I wonder how many RU men and how much RU material is on the wrong side of those blown bridges?  I am skeptical that RU can pull off a proper withdrawal.  Plus, do they have the freight capability to remove a huge number of troops quickly across that big river?  And if they do have an actual professional withdrawal plan, what are the chances that the poor, untrained mobiks left as rearguards won't just panic & run or simply surrender?

Kherson will probably be filled w destroyed infrastructure and booby traps but hopefully UKR won't suffer any casualties clearing it.  

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On 11/6/2022 at 12:26 PM, Beleg85 said:

Intresting, famous Russian soldier with crushed leg taken prisoner and other famous scene of Ukranians shooting other in the toilet are from the same incident:

https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1589342208846876672

Btw. it is interesting illustration of intense "cat and mouse" battles in Kupyansk sgt. Krzysztof X wrote about. Kraken was surely there.

{ED} Worth to watch, despite being controversial unit Kraken has very good PR, need to admitt. Note how ca. 13:45 they successfully counter Russian ambush with hail of bullets, pretty close fighting. Also intensivity of MOUT and room clearance is evident.

I had Tuesday night free of religious obligations (NFL football watching) so took the time to watch this whole video.  It's quite good.  One thing I noticed is how many of the soldiers had US supplied rifles, which I had not noticed in most other videos, though may have just missed that.  These guys mostly had very nice, new looking gear.  

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3 minutes ago, Holien said:

Of course it could be another Russian lie? Let's see what happens and hope for a monumental FU.

Maybe the Russians are pants?

Could be some kind of RU lie, but doesn't seem to make much sense to lie about this.  The political humiliation is already there.  I'd think they would lie they other way, saying they were not withdrawing.  Maybe they will keep some units in Kherson city?  But the blowing of the bridges seems to indicate this is real.  Hopefully lots of soldiers caught on wrong side of those bridges.  The river crossing stations could be an absolute disaster as panicked troops crowd the shore.  Mobs & artillery are a deadly mix.

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I little from 10 miles high:

https://www.realcleardefense.com:/articles/2022/11/09/do_not_underestimate_ukraines_resilience_to_bombing_863906.html

Russian President Vladimir Putin is indeed correct that the Russo-Ukrainian War is a competitive test of wills, but he has misidentified the respective centers of gravity. It is not a trial of resolve between the Ukrainian and Russian people, the latter of whom are largely insulated from the horrors of war, if not most of the economic sanctions. Rather it is a test between the Ukrainian nation, which is committed to independence, versus the far more limited motivation of the conscripted Russian army, which, when its will is eventually broken, will lead it to overthrow Putin in a coup. The Russian bombing of Ukraine is an act of political desperation. 

PS: the writers are new to me. But the essay is pretty complete. 

 

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2 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

Big if true !

 

 

At risk of bringing US politics in: there's little enough change in the makeup of the US government that Vlad realizes he can count on Ukraine getting two more years of essentially the same support they've been getting.  And there's no way the RA can survive that.  For maybe the 3rd time since Feb 24 they're recognizing the reality of a macro situation.

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25 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I little from 10 miles high:

https://www.realcleardefense.com:/articles/2022/11/09/do_not_underestimate_ukraines_resilience_to_bombing_863906.html

Russian President Vladimir Putin is indeed correct that the Russo-Ukrainian War is a competitive test of wills, but he has misidentified the respective centers of gravity. It is not a trial of resolve between the Ukrainian and Russian people, the latter of whom are largely insulated from the horrors of war, if not most of the economic sanctions. Rather it is a test between the Ukrainian nation, which is committed to independence, versus the far more limited motivation of the conscripted Russian army, which, when its will is eventually broken, will lead it to overthrow Putin in a coup. The Russian bombing of Ukraine is an act of political desperation. 

PS: the writers are new to me. But the essay is pretty complete. 

 

I would argue that the game being played here is much, much bigger than this.  This is a contest of wills between Russia and the western global order, the stakes are so much higher than the single nation of Ukraine.  They speak to the course our species will chart for the rest of the century.  If the western global order is finished we are back to the anarchy of states and then a power competition to create a new order which will likely make Ukraine look like a "minor border skirmish".

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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Pale Surovikin in very martial mood, Shoigu looking like old tired teacher counting days and hours to retirement. Atmosphere of the gathering can be cut with a knife.:

 

This seems staged, almost like actors in a high school play.  Why this--why such a public announcement?  Have we seen situations like this being broadcast by the Russians previously?   Maybe it's just me, but this just seems like another BS poorly executed Russian video for some as yet to be known Russian ploy.   That will fail. 

 

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44 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

AN-225: Plans to rebuild world's largest plane confirmed

Some more good news. As a fan of aviation the destruction of the Mriya saddened me very much.

I hope to see this plane rebuilt and flying around the world again. 🙂

It's a monumental waste of money that we can't and should not afford. Wasting half a billion dollars on a plane that was never profitable and would fly twice a year is even ethically wrong at this point. Especially since we are donating to buy winter uniforms for our soldiers and many of them aren't getting paid for 3 months because MoD is heavily under budget.

Edited by kraze
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39 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

This seems staged, almost like actors in a high school play.  Why this--why such a public announcement?  Have we seen situations like this being broadcast by the Russians previously?   Maybe it's just me, but this just seems like another BS poorly executed Russian video for some as yet to be known Russian ploy.   That will fail. 

 

My guess? No-one wants to have to order the pull out only to find out afterwards he is the one this defeat is being pinned on. So we get this song and dance where everyone is shown to be on the same page.

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On 11/8/2022 at 3:03 PM, The_Capt said:

And finally the peice by Karber - the guy actually got so close he got hit in an MLRS strike:

https://prodev2go.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/rus-ukr-lessons-draft.pdf

In this peice Karber goes on at length at the effectiveness of the BTG and the emerging "Russian way of War

this was a decent prediction...

"Nevertheless, Putin seems determined to make Ukraine an example – possibly seizing a land bridge to Crimea, or even extend Moscow’s control of Novorossiaya all the way to Transnistria." 

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