How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Looks like they're also creating salmonella grenade biological weapon

funny!  But do you think they are less careful than the folks at fast food restaurants?  They cooked it all quite thoroughly, so just as safe as most places.  But I refuse to go negative on such a happy looking post.  Dude certainly looked like he knew what he was doing. 

[danfrodo]

As far as defense spending goes, US could spend less in the future if Russia was no longer a threat.  The money being spent now could bring that to reality and save us a ton of money going forward.  Still will have a very big D budget but wouldn't need to spend so much backstopping NATO countries.

[Artkin]

7 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Well he has a point. All those superior weapon systems that are regularly developed - and consume all those Billions and Billions of dollars - could easily have been developed for free by hobbyists in their garages. Technology is extremely simple, testing is obviously unnecessary, and of course private enterprise production lines and wages are old fashioned. Who needs them really, because Russia isn’t really a threat. Right? And China? China? Um, yes. They make things we buy. Can’t be a threat either. Budget problem now solved!

 

How does a country like Germany have state of the art equipment with a fraction of what we spend? Not for nothing - we aren't on the front lines here. We don't have to worry about invasion. It's nice to have a new M1A2 version come out every 5 years or so, but is there really necessity?

Allocate funds where they are the most useful.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Though, to be fair to the left, they would like to see the whole defense budget zeroed out so at least they are being consistent with larger goals

Assuming your wink is meaning you are kidding about this rather large example of what was criticized right before it!

I fear we will stray into the USA political quicksand and suffocate by even *attempting* to plainly describe any factual, relevant developments in both the opinions and the potential range of policy changes affecting support for Ukraine in all forms, by the incoming Party in control of government.

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Assuming your wink is meaning you are kidding about this rather large example of what was criticized right before it!

I fear we will stray into the USA political quicksand and suffocate by even *attempting* to plainly describe any factual, relevant developments in both the opinions and the potential range of policy changes affecting support for Ukraine in all forms, by the incoming Party in control of government.

I'm pretty sure you took my "Biden" comment as an attack on the left. Which it was not. The guy was falling apart on camera.

There is no right or left in this country, only American. Anyone who buys into division is a slave.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Artkin

[akd]

33 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Because mobilization is going so well?!

He already looks worried.

[poesel]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

That would be a very un-German thing to do, but this ammo should just disappear from the store and never be found. 

Yeah, no.

But since the ammunition is quite old by now, it could be well past due date. Then we have to scrap it, of course. I guess in that case, Ukraine would win the call for bids.

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

How does a country like Germany have state of the art equipment with a fraction of what we spend?

? wut? No, we don't. Germany may be exemplary for some things, but it is definitely NOT for military spending. That is right in line with airport planning.

[Haiduk]

Ukraine suffers a defficite not only in artilelry, but also and in mortars of all calibers. Already before a war we had some problems with reserves of 120 mm moratrs, because for 8 years many barrels were exhausted and some were  lost in actions. Production of own 120 mm mortar M120-15 "Molot" (eng. "Hammer") encountered with problems in design and bad choice of alloy for the barrel - theese moratrs were unsafe for crew. Only in late 2021 we can get enough stable specimen of domestic 120 mm mortar MP-120, but it completed tests and was adopted only at the end of January 2022. Thus, currently Ukraine has been collecting 120 and 82 mm mortars from all world

 

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

BANG!

Russian BTR-82A carried AT-mines on the top and something happened...

 

 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

Yeah, no.

But since the ammunition is quite old by now, it could be well past due date. Then we have to scrap it, of course. I guess in that case, Ukraine would win the call for bids. 

Shady Eastern European vs Western bureaucratic solution

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian BTR-82A carried AT-mines on the top and something happened...

 

 

looks like they worked!  

[NamEndedAllen]

7 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Allocate funds where they are the most useful.

Good point! But according to who? Isn’t that the very point of political policy debate? And we lack an universal absolute correct crystal ball answer that includes knowledge of future potential developments 5, 10 years out. Plus we have competing challenges, needs, and knowledge in a highly complicated diverse array of groups of citizens - all within a gigantic population of over 330,000,000. No simple answers here.

The value of this line of posts is to illustrate the danger of single point predictions and assumptions about critical issues in the future. Ukraine support by the USA might be unchanged over the next two or three years and the Western Alliance will hold fast. But it may not! One Party has a more complex love/hate stance about Ukraine (whether based on reality or not). It would be folly to assume one outcome for support in that time frame. There are a range of degrees of support, not just All or Nothing. Or just a little change, so just assume same as “All”. Bottom line is that even that incoming Party doesn’t know it’s Ukraine policy until its leadership tests various positions in House and Senate caucus vote counts.

[NamEndedAllen]

23 minutes ago, Artkin said:

There is no right or left in this country, only American.

Wouldst that that were what every USA citizen believed and acted on. Especially in Congress, where both Parties have specific Caucuses that are far Left and far Right. But I applaud your sentiment. May it some day, some how come to pass.

[Artkin]

22 minutes ago, poesel said:

Yeah, no.

But since the ammunition is quite old by now, it could be well past due date. Then we have to scrap it, of course. I guess in that case, Ukraine would win the call for bids.

? wut? No, we don't. Germany may be exemplary for some things, but it is definitely NOT for military spending. That is right in line with airport planning.

We were talking about research and development, not how many MBT's are ready to be fielded on a moment's notice.

[Artkin]

7 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Good point! But according to who?

Dropping however much money on upgrades to our land based systems right now is pointless when compared to aid that can be given to Ukraine. You won't have many heavy brigades island hopping anytime soon. They would most likely be sent to Europe where the countryside infrastructure is more suited toward that sort of warfare. This is just a small example. 

As DanFrodo already said: Defense spending can be toned down if Russia is less of a problem. They already have 2500 destroyed MBT's alone according to the UA mod, and 1400 on Oryx. That's their primary fighting arm totally gone. Also it's not like they have the production of the Soviet Union. Since 1991 Russia has declined.

[NamEndedAllen]

9 minutes ago, Artkin said:

As DanFrodo already said: Defense spending can be toned down if Russia is less of a problem. They already have 2500 destroyed MBT's alone according to the UA mod, and 1400 on Oryx. That's their primary fighting arm totally gone. Also it's not like they have the production of the Soviet Union. Since 1991 Russia has declined.

Sure, but “toned down” is a squishy, unknown amount! And might be swamped by inflation whether at the low 2-3 old planning purposes or the current percentage. Not to mention that the Chinese military capability is growing quite fast. Which also weighs against a hypothetical decrease in defense against Russia (the war is far from over, as is Russia).

I’m not clear whether your brief big bolded billions number means you want to shrink the authorized strength of each branch of  the USA military? Stop procurement of new generations of platforms? Etc. But shouldn’t that discussion be in a new thread? Given the impact of the Ukraine war on thinking about war fighting AND the rise of China, that new forum topic would be interesting.

 

[dan/california]

38 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Good point! But according to who? Isn’t that the very point of political policy debate? And we lack an universal absolute correct crystal ball answer that includes knowledge of future potential developments 5, 10 years out. Plus we have competing challenges, needs, and knowledge in a highly complicated diverse array of groups of citizens - all within a gigantic population of over 330,000,000. No simple answers here.

The value of this line of posts is to illustrate the danger of single point predictions and assumptions about critical issues in the future. Ukraine support by the USA might be unchanged over the next two or three years and the Western Alliance will hold fast. But it may not! One Party has a more complex love/hate stance about Ukraine (whether based on reality or not). It would be folly to assume one outcome for support in that time frame. There are a range of degrees of support, not just All or Nothing. Or just a little change, so just assume same as “All”. Bottom line is that even that incoming Party doesn’t know it’s Ukraine policy until its leadership tests various positions in House and Senate caucus vote counts.

There are also huge new expenses coming up, we are at the beginning of the drone precision AI revolution, not the end. If you can't deal with something AT LEAST as good as a Shahed 136 in swarms of several hundred at a time, you are not ready for the next war. 

https://www.nammo.com/story/the-range-revolution/

Just the number of guided and extended range 155 that is necessary to be ready for the next round is staggering. I am going to make this my sig line "ammo is expensive, until it is PRICELESS"

[Haiduk]

Two points of view (ATGM operator and drone) of the same episode - Stugna-P hit Russian or DPR tank near Pavlivka, Donetsk oblast, where Russians try to attack: 

 Enemy tank got a missile, but was lucky - the crew could extinguish fire, but the second missile has exploded the tank - throwing into the flight enemy driver

In short, Russian operation for capturing of Pavlivka and Vuhledar has been developing in this way (according to Russian point of view)

Day 1: yo-ho-ho! We surprised theese Ukie-pigs! Our heroical DPR troops advanced on 3,5 km, we already mop-up Pavlivka, Ukies can't bring reinforcements - our arty controls all ways from Vuhledar! Soon Pavlika will fall and we will go to Vuhledar!

Day 2: we have seized southern and south-eastern part of village, Ukies risist yet, but their resistance haі been weakening. Now Russian marines in action! High Command offered a Hero of Russia for those company commander, whose company will burst first to Vuhledar!

Day3: well, we seized almost all village, but couldn't yet push Ukies behind the river (it divides Pavlivka on more larger southern and lesser northern part). This is unfair - damned Ukies sat in Vuhledar on the dominant height and adjust own arty, we can't supply troops because this and because damned mud.    

Day 4: either we will produce 122 mm ammo, or all country will produce zinc coffins. For two days of fighting for this damned Pavlivka our Marines lost more people, than for all First Chechen War... Our offensive was premature and unprepared. This is unfair! Damned Ukies wait for suitable weather to atatck in that time we attack, when theese damned rains and mud! Why our commander didn't attack Vuhledar from flanks and directed us to assault Pavlivka!

 

Real situation from UKR side (according to Pavlivka settlers): in day 1 DPR pushed our troops from gardens SE from village and took two farms on S and SE. On day 2 they could seize several houses in SE part. Day 3 - clashes, no advance. Day 4 - UKR troops pushed enemy back from SE of village and likely from farms. Gardens, according to loclas, now is grey zone.  

Edited November 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

Looks like they threw a track smashing into that BTR. Well done. 

[OldSarge]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Day3: well, we seized almost all village, but couldn't yet push Ukies behind the river (it divides Pavlivka on more larger southern and lesser northern part). This is unfair - damned Ukies sat in Vuhledar on the dominant height and adjust own arty, we can't supply troops because this and because damned mud.    

Day 4: either we will produce 122 mm ammo, or all country will produce zinc coffins. For two days of fighting for this damned Pavlivka our Marines lost more people, than for all First Chechen War... Our offensive was premature and unprepared. This is unfair! Damned Ukies wait for suitable weather to atatck in that time we attack, when theese damned rains and mud! Why our commander didn't attack Vuhledar from flanks and directred us to assault Pavlivka!

"This is unfair!" LOL! Someone needs to tell them that fairness doesn't enter the equation. The immediate goal is for one side to seek an advantage of the other side, fair or not.

[RockinHarry]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Bias? 

The only "bias" I know of is Switzerland allowing Nazi troop + equipment trains through their territory. Selling arms to Germany + Italy. They stopped targeting German planes after sanctions/war was threatened. But they never stopped targeting USAF or RAF planes. 

Switzerland was biased. There is plenty of information available online. 

Times for "neutrality" is over now. Even swedes and fins realized it. Guess Switzerland is pumped up with so much russian money in their banks that they see a benefit now and post war. Shame on them. If I´d be Scholz I won´t give a f*ck on swiss allowance for sending Gepard ammo. What could be happen in worst case? Swiss freezing all the secret bank accounts that many german politicians might have there. lol

[Fenris]

Zuzuna loading and firing

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Day 4: either we will produce 122 mm ammo, or all country will produce zinc coffins. For two days of fighting for this damned Pavlivka our Marines lost more people, than for all First Chechen War... Our offensive was premature and unprepared. This is unfair! Damned Ukies wait for suitable weather to atatck in that time we attack, when theese damned rains and mud! Why our commander didn't attack Vuhledar from flanks and directed us to assault Pavlivka!

This is perfect description of Russian struggle with reality. I am trying to imagine what fascinating processess must take place inside Putin's head when he was receiving news in last 9 months. It must have been like hitting the wall constantly. Or maybe he manage to bend it in his own strange ways? I am curious how he imagine the future, and if he even understand how deep in the swamp he is in the first place.

Anyway, large part of society is in this madness and seem to bloody like it. For example this gem here (sorry for Gerashchenko again):

we see average Russian citizens, totally not actors, going into Ukraine like on festival. Smiling muzhyk Seriozhka- apparently larger-than-life local figure almost directly taken from Russian folk tales of lucky simpleton ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_the_Fool ) energetically show brave men from Orlov how they will cross into "smell of fire and gunpoder" and finish perfidous NATO and Ukrainians in a minute, probably just with their zeal and muscles. Mom is visibly proud of him (and her shiny new Lada), just like local freshly-married women sending their husbands directly into meatgrinder. Also there is smell of alcohol, but "it's understandable" (actually, narrator is right here- without vodka, Ship of Fools that is Russian state would never be possible).

Watching scenes like these one can understand how USSR could lost 25+ mln people in WWII just like that.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Beleg85

[Elmar Bijlsma]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Two points of view (ATGM operator and drone) of the same episode - Stugna-P hit Russian or DPR tank near Pavlivka, Donetsk oblast, where Russians try to attack: 

 Enemy tank got a missile, but was lucky - the crew could extinguish fire, but the second missile has exploded the tank - throwing into the flight enemy driver

So if r/CombatFootage has informed me correctly, the driver has controls to make the turret clear his hatch. Is this accurate? Seemingly the driver was unaware of it, as it looks like the other guy dipped back in to do it. Absolute nightmare fuel for the driver to be trapped in a burning tank. And just when he thinks he is saved, his lifeless corpse gets ragdolled some 20m across the field.

With luck like that, I bet his wife's new Lada is going to break down a lot too.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

There is a hatch in the bottom of the tank, but the driver might have been injured or disabled.