How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Ok, again something interesting from this evening. This time rather controversial, as it comes from Russian PsyOps.

One observer did compiled and summarized into Polish several video calls made by another Russian secret weapon- pranksters. Records of these talks with important Ukrainian officials (min. Kuleba, L.Denisova and this - with Serhiy Pashynsky, dir. of Associatiation of Ukrainian Defence Industry (?- never heard of him the guy, perhaps @Haiduk will know?) were lately published on several Russian channels. Pranksters did reportedly posed as US officials with some influence in Washington, if I understood correctly. Most of content is known, but there are some points, about among other Hrim-2 and other issues, that should probably be keep secret.

It's unfortunate that so much info go into public, but nonetheless it is worthy to autotranslate and read it; perhaps Ukrainian users will be better predisposed to assess how much of it holds water. Just note that they are cut conviniently to fit Russian narrative; especially talk with Denisova is modified to support Russian version of Olenivka massacre.

Summary and whole videocalls (autotranslate):

https://www.hejto.pl/wpis/rosyjscy-pranksterzy-ktorzy-zreszta-popieraja-napasc-rosyjska-na-ukraine-podsz-1

EDIT: It's of course work of famous duo Wowan and Lexus, FSB assets posing as chilled out hipsters doing hih level pranks. They also tapped several PM's and presidents in last years.

Edited October 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, again something interesting from this evening. This time rather controversial, as it comes from Russian PsyOps.

One observer did compiled and summarized into Polish several video calls made by another Russian secret weapon- pranksters. Records of these talks with important Ukrainian officials (min. Kuleba, L.Denisova and this - with Serhiy Pashynsky, dir. of Associatiation of Ukrainian Defence Industry (?- never heard of him the guy, perhaps @Haiduk will know?) were lately published on several Russian channels. Pranksters did reportedly posed as US officials with some influence in Washington, if I understood correctly. Most of content is known, but there are some points, about among other Hrim-2 and other issues, that should probably be keep secret.

It's unfortunate that so much info go into public, but nonetheless it is worthy to autotranslate and read it; perhaps Ukrainian users will be better predisposed to assess how much of it holds water. Just note that they are cut conviniently to fit Russian narrative; especially talk with Denisova is modified to support Russian version of Olenivka massacre:

https://www.hejto.pl/wpis/rosyjscy-pranksterzy-ktorzy-zreszta-popieraja-napasc-rosyjska-na-ukraine-podsz-1

more like a fake, it is unlikely that such issues are discussed over the phone without video communication with strangers. Surely for such negotiations there is an official from the Senate.

- Ukraine has exhausted the possibilities of expanding its army in terms of numbers. One million people are called up, of which 500,000 are on the fronts and at present the quality of this army needs to be improved. There is also the problem that those Russians who survived also learned to fight. He estimates that the combat potential of the Ukrainian soldier in relation to the Russians is 1.5 times greater.

I commented on this part earlier. There has not yet been any total mobilization in Ukraine, so there is no need to talk about the exhaustion of its mobilization reserves. The total mobilization reserve of Ukraine is 5 million people and not 1 million

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

- UKR hasn't any reasons to blow up Nova Kahovka dam, in 1941 exactly Red Army has blown up DneproGES dam, to delay German advance   

Yeah and it didn't delay German advance for a second, but resulted in ~100k dead civilians. Historians argue it was more of a retaliation towards Ukrainians for not supporting or actively opposing Red Army (duh)

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Looks like new air defense software. We recently saw something similar in the Osa air defense system. And in this video, the crew commander gives target designation to the MANPADS gunner on a previously detected target. This significantly increases the effectiveness of MANPADS. After all, they do not have their own means of detection

This is upgrade on new tech-level of Soviet system ). MANPAD squad commander had 1L15 "tab" - on the photo below (had 7 kg of weight), recieving information about aerial situation from PPRU-1 - AD battalion command and radar asset.

  

Of course, currently all this stuff already became obsolete and probably out of service, so UKR MANPAD units could react only after visual contact or warning by radio and searching. So, this software and new tabs significantly imroved their capabilities. Though I've seen first time theese tabs in MANPAD unit

Edited October 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

 

quick reaction saves lives.

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Not at all. That, to my knowledge, implies a fancy facade where the the actuality is much less impressive. But it's still a military, just weaker then expected.

Cargo cults, for those that don't know, are a Pacific island phenomenon where the natives build imitation airfields and the like in the hopes of inviting back the bountiful supplies the US Army, Navy and Air Force dumped on their islands during WW2, who built similar bases. They don't really understand what airfields do, but they build something shaped like one.

 

And that is why I prefer to use cargo cult.

The Russian Armed Forces seem to have build something akin to what won them the Great Patriotic War in the quasi-religious hopes that victory returns to them, without fully understanding what it is they are supposed to do with it.  Push onwards to Kiev, because that is what Zhukov would have done. Mass artillery bombardments because it worked for Rokossovsky. Logistics? Stalin never paid attention to that either.

They have this thing called an army but they don't really understand how it works and how to use it. Hence, cargo cult.

The cargo cult idea is also reinforced by how things went at the start of the conflict.  Ukraine was equipped largely with the same equipment as Russia, and a similar military legacy from the USSR until around 2014.  After 2014, Ukraine seems to have recognized the limitations of their history and gotten a great deal of outside help in training at apparently all levels from tactical to strategic.  That training, plus a health extra dose of small arms (particularly ATGMs) from the west, enabled them to bring the Russian attack to a standstill fairly quickly and then turn things around.

[Zeleban]

RG-1 "Piston" Ukrainian-designed light self-propelled grenade launcher - designed to fire VOG-17 - the same projectiles as AGS-17. In my opinion, his recoil is too big

[poesel]

SPIEGEL magazine has a short piece about the use of the Gepard (and the PzH)(paywalled):

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/gepard-panzerhaubitze-2000-und-co-im-ukraine-krieg-die-rolle-der-deutschen-waffen-a-795b057f-e796-4a85-96ad-16bae97f6d2f

Not too much of interest for us here, but a few tidbits: one Gepard covers an area of 4 km diameter, the gun they were visiting was near Saporischya, they were also used in the Kharkiv offensive and in Odessa. So far this gun has shot down only drones, Orlan-10 & Eleron. The commander needed 6 shots for his first kill. Other Gepards have shot down Shahed-136 drones and even Kalibr cruise missiles.

[Zeleban]

18 minutes ago, poesel said:

SPIEGEL magazine has a short piece about the use of the Gepard (and the PzH)(paywalled):

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/gepard-panzerhaubitze-2000-und-co-im-ukraine-krieg-die-rolle-der-deutschen-waffen-a-795b057f-e796-4a85-96ad-16bae97f6d2f

Not too much of interest for us here, but a few tidbits: one Gepard covers an area of 4 km diameter, the gun they were visiting was near Saporischya, they were also used in the Kharkiv offensive and in Odessa. So far this gun has shot down only drones, Orlan-10 & Eleron. The commander needed 6 shots for his first kill. Other Gepards have shot down Shahed-136 drones and even Kalibr cruise missiles.

 

We are very grateful to Germany for the air defense systems that she supplies to us. This is very important now, given the strategy of missile terror by Russia

[akd]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Interesting UKR tank in Bakhmut. Not sure what this is, but possibly a workshop Frankenstein creation.

Some more views of this strange beast:

Earlier photos of same, or more than one?

Edited October 22, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

What if the RA holes up in Kherson city itself? Since the UA cannot just flatten every house as the Russian do, it would be a very, very bloody fight. And it would be an even fight since there is no technological advantage on either side and the Russians soldiers are the best they have. That is a better chance than anywhere else.
UA also cannot just bypass Kherson because Russia could then blow up the dam.

I doubt Putin would hesitate to pay the price in blood if he sees a chance that this battle is 'too much' for western stomachs.

I don't get the connection between blowing the dam and trying to hold Kherson city. Indeed blowing the dam would make it harder to support a force besieged in Kherson city because it would force Russian units on the far side further away, and make the supply situation even more impossible. Really that seems like an either/or question , they can try to withstand a siege in Kherson City, or they blow the dam. Doing both is idiotic, which of course means that Russia will probably do exactly that.

[chuckdyke]

Just now, dan/california said:

I don't get the connection between blowing the dam and trying to hold Kherson city.

I think the Russians need the dam to withdraw from Kherson city, as the Ukrainians will never blow it up. Also this will avoid urban operations in the city itself. Some negotiations may have happened we don't know of.

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't get the connection between blowing the dam and trying to hold Kherson city. Indeed blowing the dam would make it harder to support a force besieged in Kherson city because it would force Russian units on the far side further away, and make the supply situation even more impossible. Really that seems like an either/or question , they can try to withstand a siege in Kherson City, or they blow the dam. Doing both is idiotic, which of course means that Russia will probably do exactly that.

There is also problem with Nuclear Power Plant, it uses water gathered in channel behind the dam as coolant. Dumping it may cause massive problems. Generally this whole region should have "Do not fight here" sign written in big red letters visible from space.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There is also problem with Nuclear Power Plant, it uses water gathered in channel behind the dam as coolant. Dumping it may cause massive problems. Generally this whole region should have "Do not fight here" sign written in big red letters visible from space.

Also, blowing up the dam would probably cause the Crimea canal to dry up due to lower water level. Hardly a RU win. I think russians will be content with just demolishing the road bridge, destroying the dam itself would be rather counterproductive. 

[poesel]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I don't get the connection between blowing the dam and trying to hold Kherson city. I

If the Russians stay in Kherson city and the UA would just pass them to cut them off like they did in Kharkiv region. Then the Russians could blow enough of the dam to make the area east of Kharkiv impassable. They would have made a moat in their backs, which buys them time because the UA cannot attack over it.

It is a terrible idea because the water in the dam is not endless, so eventually the moat will run dry. But it would create a lot of chaos and problems for Ukraine at the cost of a few hundred or so mobiks who will be left behind in Kherson. I guess in Russian arithmetic, that's a win.

[paxromana]

6 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

Once you've tapped the prison yards---where else do you go?

Asylums>

... oooh, wait

[BlackMoria]

33 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Asylums>

... oooh, wait

Senior's housing and high school yards.....  I am not being sarcastic.  In the end days of the Third Reich, old men and high school kids were pressed into service.  I remember a photo from the end days of WW2 with several American soldiers guarding some captured German teen boys, the youngest, which was 12 yrs old according to the photo.   Russia could get there yet.

Edited October 23, 2022 by BlackMoria

[paxromana]

1 minute ago, BlackMoria said:

Senior's housing and high school yards.....  I am not being sarcastic.  In the end days of the Third Reich, old men and high school kids were pressed into service.  Russia could get there yet.

Women? According to (some) news reports, 

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/we-are-a-country-of-women-now-where-have-all-the-men-in-moscow-gone-20221020-p5brl5.html

... so, obviously, give OIga a rusty AK without bullets and ship her off to the front, she can be a speed bump ... there are already a lot of surplus women due to combat losses ...

[sburke]

Russia's problem isn't that there aren't men of age to fight.  The problem is getting WILLING men to fight.

[dan/california]

Ru Nats getting seriously out of sorts of the prospect of losing Kherson. Positively cheery reading, even if not much of it is new information

[paxromana]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia's problem isn't that there aren't men of age to fight.  The problem is getting WILLING men to fight.

Well, there was that photo a couple of pages back of an Olga with a cut down AK -- so women being grabbed off the street are an obvious solution!

[Beleg85]

CMRT all along...of course cut propaganda video, but still interesting they use tank riders this way.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

CMRT all along...of course cut propaganda video, but still interesting they use tank riders this way.

I demand tank riders in the modern game!

[Vanir Ausf B]

30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I demand tank riders in the modern game!

The harder part is getting the pixeltruppen to properly utilize a moving object as cover, especially spread out as they are instead of glued to the rear of the tank.

[MikeyD]

The Frankenstein tank looks like a Russian T80 , captured by Ukraine then passed through their workshop to upgrade the armor to Ukraine standards. The giveaway is the three driver vision blocks, the roadwheels and loooong rear fender gas tank.