How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

I have not seen anything like this in the US, Britain

Sure you have. In the US it's people like Tucker Swanson 'Hungry Man' Carlson, and in the UK it's people like Roger Waters.

[Zeleban]

8 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The Grand Finale for Russia? 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-war-at-a-turning-point-with-rapid-escalation-of-conflict/ar-AA12OfId

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-pour-into-belarus-by-the-trainload/ar-AA12OtwC?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b07a7da1241f43d893a098ab147c86f0

 

As I said earlier, Newly Mobilized Soldiers are unlikely to be useful on the battlefield, but they are quite capable of helping on the strategic map, for example, by pulling part of the Ukrainian troops from the south and east of Ukraine to the north and northwest. I am sure that Putin will entrust the supply of these troops to Lukashenka. And he will gladly take on this responsibility, if only not to take a direct part in the war.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

this device is made from French components

That looks like a newer version of SOPHIE. I was playing around with those, heck, it must have been 15 years ago now, and even then ISTR it could derive remote grids, although I assume that all the things you'd expect - power consumption, interface, reliability, accuracy - have improved.

Hmm, could that one derive remote grids? I'm second guessing myself now. It could certainly do polar missions really quickly and easily, which is great since polar is a superfast way to get rounds on target from a cold grid.

Edit: yeah, I'm sure it could do remote grids, but as I recall you had to plug it into a GPS unit, it didn't have that natively. But the remote GPS combined with SOPHIE's LRF and gyros did the business.

Edited October 11, 2022 by JonS

[Zeleban]

An interesting combination of old and new technologies.

[Taliessyn]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Check out this BBC article about the cause of the bridge blast:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63192757?fbclid=IwAR0qAgDlsEKrrQ9hi5N6n1kqBuvafEvddf-Db1OnqNAWbodCevuOeOLxaFk

The basic tone is pretty good.  It's saying "slow down a bit!  Let's not immediately rush to accept Russia's official explanation", which is the first time I've seen that in the MSM.  Kudos.  However, the boat bomb theory is one of the easiest to rule out. 

Seems like they grabbed one guy who had a different opinion, said "wow, that's so interesting!" and went to press without getting other opinions.  Pretty sloppy reporting.

Steve

Long time player / lurker -

I watch SubBrief religiously on youtube, Aaron is a former submariner who has great knowledge about Navy matters - seems to think it was a barge with explosives. Nothing definitive here of course, and he probably has an ingrained bias towards a Naval explanation - but something more to throw into the pot:

(from comments: "it has been a long time but here is my take, the explosion was low yield , think ammonium nitrate-fuel oil (AN-FO). It is designed to push up rather than fragment the bridge, Lifting the section off of its supports. this explains the lack of visible damage, the burn on the top was the truck laden with ordinance.or something with bang potential and was a secondary , this explains the guard rails, large sparklers ect."

 

Also a Naval perspective on the Gas line sabotage:

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by targo
links, comments

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

That looks like a newer version of SOPHIE. I was playing around with those, heck, it must have been 15 years ago now, and even then ISTR it could derive remote grids, although I assume that all the things you'd expect - power consumption, interface, reliability, accuracy - have improved.

Hmm, could that one derive remote grids? I'm second guessing myself now. It could certainly do polar missions really quickly and easily, which is great since polar is a superfast way to get rounds on target from a cold grid.

The reviewer claims that this device has access to external networks using Wi-fi technology. He will not provide any further information about this.

[JonS]

Yeah, battlefield bluetooth and wifi has been under investigation for a while. It would make setting up and breaking down CPs, for example, a whole heck of a lot faster since several kms of cable wouldn't need to be run out every time. The down side is the emissions - keep it all low-powered, sure, but emissions can still be sensed from far further away than those emissions can sense (simple example: you can see someone using a torch at night from miles away, even though the torch user can themselves only see a few 10s of metres). It's not too surprising that devices at the edge of the network are seeing that kind of capability first - losing a FOO is bad, especially for the FOO, but a lot less bad than losing a CP.

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, battlefield bluetooth and wifi has been under investigation for a while. It would make setting up and breaking down CPs, for example, a whole heck of a lot faster since several kms of cable wouldn't need to be run out every time. The down side is the emissions - keep it all low-powered, sure, but emissions can still be sensed from far further away than those emissions can sense (simple example: you can see someone using a torch at night from miles away, even though the torch user can themselves only see a few 10s of metres). It's not too surprising that devices at the edge of the network are seeing that kind of capability first - losing a FOO is bad, especially for the FOO, but a lot less bad than losing a CP.

The other side of this is electronic warfare. The Russians have repeatedly complained about their electronic warfare, it suppresses not only Ukrainian communications, but also Russian ones. This can be a problem too.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-pour-into-belarus-by-the-trainload/ar-AA12OtwC?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b07a7da1241f43d893a098ab147c86f0

BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT: TIME HAS COME FOR EUROPE TO GIVE ITSELF A 'MORAL CLEANSING'

Putting (largely Russian Slav?) mobiks into Belarus, where they'll be useful (and safer) keeping Lugnuts in power and (verbally) onside, is a prudent move by the Kremlin.

But I doubt they'll pose much threat to Ukraine's TD veterans in the border forests and Pripyat swamps.

Denuding Belarus of its heavy weapons is a sure sign that things are reaching a critically short state in Russia. So as awful as the missile terror attacks are, they're using up irreplaceable and extremely finite stocks.

....Now if some friendly Middle Eastern nation could whack the workshops that assemble and test the Saheed buzz bombs (the guidance systems, no doubt of Chinese origin, are the critical part, the rest of the weapon truly seems like 1943 technology).

Oh wait....

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Positional warfare around Bakhmut.

@Jawin's videos are getting @DeadDistrict-ish in terms of their (RU) body counts.

****

Btw, I'm noticing a lot of disabling shrapnel wounds to the rear of the thighs in these vids. Terrible place to be hit because you can't run, can bleed out fast and can't self-treat.  I wonder whether body armour designers are taking notes.

As a grunt in this war, I might consider trading in my plate vest for a nice thick kevlar cape, knee length.  Especially in winter.

(sorry Steve, I can only stay on the no memes wagon so long)

Edited October 11, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

These guys have a lot of interesting reviews (with English subtitles). Here, for example, is a Russian thermal imaging sight 1PN139-2 from the Ratnik complex, this is a poorly assembled product from French components:

 

[kevinkin]

26 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

they're using up irreplaceable and extremely finite stocks.

Hence, the grand finale we all hope. 

[Zeleban]

 

A very interesting device from the Ratnik complex. This is a rather rare commander's information exchange system. Which includes a tablet with a radio headset and shoulder antennas for GPS and radio. It was stated that this is a completely Russian development, on which a lot of money was spent. But as it turned out, the tablet is German geodetic equipment from Leika in 2012 with the manufacturer's logo removed (it turns out that all the money spent on development went to remove the nameplate ). Eng. subs.

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Zeleban

[Bulletpoint]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And to think that knowledgeable people were seriously arguing that Russia could win a long war and that time was on their side.  Yesh.

Wasn't that argument based on the assumption of at least medium Russian competence and a low level of Western support?

[Haiduk]

UKR M777 crew prepares Excalibur round for shot with M1155 device

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

An interesting combination of old and new technologies.

Looks like this is one of many tablets with special soft, integrated in information system from Back-and-Alive charity fund, which supplies Ground forces AD units and maybe Air Forces AD with theese tabs. I've seen they have been equipping SA-8 crews with theese devices. 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Doc844]

In regards to the kerch bridge I couldnt decide for myself between truck bomb or missile.  However on watching the video taken from the CCTV capture backwards and forwards lots of times I'm more and more coming down on the side of missile.  A few points of why, firstly at point of detonation, to me the explosion looks like it comes from behind where the truck was last seen and when you crawl the video forward it seems as though it was to the right rear, on the edge of the frame.  This made me think that if it was a missile, it clips the edge of the right hand lane, detonates but it looks like alot of the explosive force is directed into the water, hence all the water that comes back and over the bridge, blown their by the strong wind.  If the missile had struck the middle of the road then I would think alot of the back blast of water would be deflected back down and/or would also force it's way up between the lanes, but what is seen is that it all comes from the right of the road.

 

Plus, because the missile may have just clipped the edge then this would explain the lack of major cratering or dismantling of the road surface.  Just to emphasise, I am in no way an explosives or bridge expert although I have seen plenty of the first, but taking into account directions, angles of after spray of water and damage done this makes more sense to me.  As for truck bomb, my knee jerk gut reaction is no and the angles of the explosion and back blast, especially the water movement just reinforce that.  Just my musings on it.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Ukraine is on the road of getting enough AA

I did not know Ukraine was getting 4 batteries of IRIS-T. Combine this with 8 batteries of NASAMS coming and you get pretty respectful AA coverage. You also get to top this off with all the soviet systems.

Finnish military has 8 batteries of NASAMS as the bas AA network (combined with around 60 modern fighters). This is deemed enough for FDF. Rest of the AA are short range systems.

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I did not know Ukraine was getting 4 batteries of IRIS-T.

I hope these things work alright.

There's been so much hype around IRIS-T for months now. 

[chuckdyke]

22 minutes ago, Doc844 said:

In regards to the kerch bridge I couldnt decide for myself between truck bomb or missile.  However on watching the video taken from the CCTV capture backwards and forwards lots of times I'm more and more coming down on the side of missile.  A few points of why, firstly at point of detonation, to me the explosion looks like it comes from behind where the truck was last seen and when you crawl the video forward it seems as though it was to the right rear, on the edge of the frame.  This made me think that if it was a missile, it clips the edge of the right hand lane, detonates but it looks like alot of the explosive force is directed into the water, hence all the water that comes back and over the bridge, blown their by the strong wind.  If the missile had struck the middle of the road then I would think alot of the back blast of water would be deflected back down and/or would also force it's way up between the lanes, but what is seen is that it all comes from the right of the road.

 

Plus, because the missile may have just clipped the edge then this would explain the lack of major cratering or dismantling of the road surface.  Just to emphasise, I am in no way an explosives or bridge expert although I have seen plenty of the first, but taking into account directions, angles of after spray of water and damage done this makes more sense to me.  As for truck bomb, my knee jerk gut reaction is no and the angles of the explosion and back blast, especially the water movement just reinforce that.  Just my musings on it.

I think the attack came from inside Russia done by the same people who killed the spoiled brat a while ago. or a revenge on putin. 

 

[Zeleban]

18 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I think the attack came from inside Russia done by the same people who killed the spoiled brat a while ago. or a revenge on putin. 

 

 

There is a version that this action was started by the GRU and the Russian Ministry of Defense in order to compromise the FSB (the protection of the bridge is their task). This was necessary to reduce the hype around failures at the fronts and avoid dismissal from the posts of Minister of Defense Shoigu and senior staff officers. In this case, the delivery of a large amount of explosives to the bridge becomes quite a feasible task.

Regarding the missile attack, the opinion of a Finnish explosives specialist was published here, who argued that such an explosion would require from 1 to 2 tons of explosives, which is significantly more than the warhead of both GRIM 2 and ATACMS

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Ukraine is on the road of getting enough AA

I did not know Ukraine was getting 4 batteries of IRIS-T. Combine this with 8 batteries of NASAMS coming and you get pretty respectful AA coverage. You also get to top this off with all the soviet systems.

Finnish military has 8 batteries of NASAMS as the bas AA network (combined with around 60 modern fighters). This is deemed enough for FDF. Rest of the AA are short range systems.

The overusing of "system" by people who should know better makes me furious. Typically a battery of say NASAMS or Sky Sabre would have at least 2 platoons/ firing units, each with a few launchers, radar and C4. 3 launchers per IRIS-T "system" sounds suspicious at best. I really hope that it doesn't mean that UA will in fact receive only 4 platoons/ 2 batteries, which are being spinned as 4 complete "systems".

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

As I said earlier, Newly Mobilized Soldiers are unlikely to be useful on the battlefield, but they are quite capable of helping on the strategic map, for example, by pulling part of the Ukrainian troops from the south and east of Ukraine to the north and northwest. I am sure that Putin will entrust the supply of these troops to Lukashenka. And he will gladly take on this responsibility, if only not to take a direct part in the war.

And here is another possible reason. As we have speculated before, Russia is lack of training facilities and instructors to handle large number of mobilized troops. So, RU needs to send them to Belarus and utilize the training facilities there. 

 

[Beleg85]

It's actually nice they don't even pretend to be civilized. Makes things easier.

[Zeleban]