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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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@poesel is 100% correct re the heat ****ing the beams internal structure. You could drive a train, slowly, maybe. But every wagon passing over will strain those beams like crazy.

It's quite realistic that if the RUS do go "full retard" and restart heavy loaded trains then the railway span will start to warp and twist. Keep doing it and theyll have an unplanned rapid dissembly event. And it would be easily as destructive as another missile strike. Winter weather will make things even worse. 

Ivan being Ivan, UKR could quite conceivably leave the bridge alone, interdict any attempted repairs,  let trains  pass and watch the bridge eventually rip itself apart. 

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If I was Ukraine, I would strike Saki or Sevastopol or some other place on Crimea again to further the "I'm not locked here with you, you're locked here with me" message and watch the panic when suddenly everyone wants out of Crime but can't.

Buuuuut it might seem like too much of an escalation.

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17 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

If I was Ukraine, I would strike Saki or Sevastopol or some other place on Crimea again to further the "I'm not locked here with you, you're locked here with me" message and watch the panic when suddenly everyone wants out of Crime but can't.

Buuuuut it might seem like too much of an escalation.

Hitting the port at Sevastopol would be a big deal, but it's a very legitimate target and the message is more "you've made some poor life choices" than it is an escalation.

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6 minutes ago, sburke said:

suicide move for Lukashenko.  No way is he going to commit to this considering the risk and he has nothing to gain by it.

My thoughts too, basically. Potential he could have come under even more severe pressure from the Tsar though.

I doubt Starsky has enough impact to be able to influence anything, should it be a targeted psyops move.

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14 minutes ago, Mattias said:

Any thoughts on this, coming as it does from a Ukrainian communications officer?

AB246ED1-021F-484B-8481-72B8E27902B4.jpeg

Considering all the faff Lukashenko went through resisting the pressure from Russia to get involved at the start of the war, when it was believable (to many media commenters at least) that Russia might win, I don't see him getting involved now when Russia is clearly the underdog at the moment.

So it's probably just a warning to Lukashenko: "you're not going to catch us off guard; we see what you're doing". Just as an added but of incentive for him to do nothing, or his army to tell him where to stuff it if he does do something stupid.

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8 minutes ago, Mattias said:

My thoughts too, basically. Potential he could have come under even more severe pressure from the Tsar though.

I doubt Starsky has enough impact to be able to influence anything, should it be a targeted psyops move.

Remember folks, Luka is doing everything to not get involved in this war. These threats are directly correlated to Putin putting pressure on him. In such instance he will rattle with sabre a little, throw extra migrants on Polish border, move some troops around etc. After which everything usually calms down- we had already 3-4 situations of "imminent Belarussian invasion" before that looked very seriously. Ironically, he is more rational than Putin in this dance- if his military would join the fray, his whole system can collapse.And that could lead to uncontrolled outcomes for both him and Russia.

Also, regarding Lord of the Rings...

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1579153820349001730

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Meanwhile, in Lymań area there are first exhumations ongoing:

https://twitter.com/LachowskiMateus/status/1579177068914700288

"First 20 bodies belong to civilians including kids and soldiers. Graves were created during Russian occupation of the city. There are two areas with possibly around 200 bodies awaiting to be recovered. Second area seem to be belong to Ukrainian soldiers".

There was also brutal, short video from Kupyansk of civilian bodies being thrown into hole in the ground today, which I will not post here. It was reportedly taken from cellphone of one of Russian soldiers before Ukrainians recaptured the city.

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2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There was also brutal, short video from Kupyansk of civilian bodies being thrown into hole in the ground today, which I will not post here. It was reportedly taken from cellphone of one of Russian soldiers before Ukrainians recaptured the city.

Hope they got the phone from a corpse.

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22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Meanwhile, in Lymań area there are first exhumations ongoing:

https://twitter.com/LachowskiMateus/status/1579177068914700288

"First 20 bodies belong to civilians including kids and soldiers. Graves were created during Russian occupation of the city. There are two areas with possibly around 200 bodies awaiting to be recovered. Second area seem to be belong to Ukrainian soldiers".

There was also brutal, short video from Kupyansk of civilian bodies being thrown into hole in the ground today, which I will not post here. It was reportedly taken from cellphone of one of Russian soldiers before Ukrainians recaptured the city.

I am really hoping they can ID his unit. They need special GMLRS attention.

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25 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Hope they got the phone from a corpse.

I hope not- finding perpetrators directly involved in all those atrocities will be difficult enough. I'd prefer the bastard to be alive and singing names. He can be put to justice later. Unfortunatelly as is the case in many other places long occuppied by muscovites, identifing them can be hard. Soldiers come and go, and finding individuals during war time is hellishly difficult.

One wonder why those people are so happy when liberated. I just saw short document in Polish TV, with reporter travelling freshly liberated villages and towns in Kherson. On average, every smaller village had several raped girls or women including older ones (ID was often covered by locals, so some of those crimes will likely stay "village secrets"- i.e. overal number of rapes is probably underreported), many people were severly beaten and shot to confess where their belongings were. As of now, collective executions seem to be more rare than in Kyiv area or simply Russians have more time to cover them up. Many local leaders, people connected to army or pre-invasion activists are lost, though.

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6 hours ago, poesel said:

Ok, I amend that to 'standing or very slow'. Hmm, maybe it was that slow because of heavy winds?

You see trains standing or going slow all the time, all around the world. I think it's basically a scheduling problem - if the train ahead is a bit slow or delayed then ... what are you gonna do, pass it?

Add to that work on the tracks any number of kms ahead which slows throughput, etc.

Edited by JonS
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3 minutes ago, JonS said:

You see trains standing or going slow all the time, all around the world. I think it's basically a scheduling problem - if the train ahead is a bit slow or delayed then ... what are you gonna do, pass it?

Add to that work on the tracks any number of kms ahead which slows throughput, etc.

Aye, and big trains of oil tanks don't go very fast even when they're at full throttle.

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Be advised, pro-Russians are claiming the recent videos are atrocities committed by Ukrainians. WARNING, link below is a SA survivor recounting her ordeal being tortured by FSB in Izyum. Interestingly, the Russian appointed mayor of Izyum was implicated. We don't hear too much (or at least I don't) about occupation officials being active participants in war crimes, so it was interesting to see this mayor mentioned. 

https://wapo.st/3SUfQLR

 

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An example of why people should be careful of Twitter theorists:

There's so much wrong with his analysis that it was a boat I don't even know where to start!  The one thing he probably got right is that the bridge section was lifted up by the explosion.  Hot Wheels Track Theory :)  However, the thought that a tiny boat, designed to blow a hole in a ship (e.g. vertical surface) could do that much lifting is nonsense.

The discussions here have been far better informed because so many of us are into sims.  We understand physics to some degree and further know that physics is important.

To me, this guy above is the same sort of guy who would have concluded a cope cage could defeat a Javelin.

Steve

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1 hour ago, akd said:

Mylove now presumably the front line on the far right flank of the Kherson bridgehead. (The bridge is just north of the town.)

 

If the above map, and google's distance measurement are correct AFU only needs about ten more kilometers from that notch with Bizemenne at the bottom of it for the 52 caliber SPGs to range the dam. I expect the Russians to hold hard though, because they obviously understand that regular 155 on the dam is the end of the party.

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